十六连阳
Search documents
十六连阳后续如何演绎?
Soochow Securities· 2026-01-11 10:17
Group 1 - The report highlights that the Shanghai Composite Index has achieved a remarkable 16 consecutive days of gains, with growth styles, particularly in commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, and 6G themes, significantly outperforming the market. This trend is attributed to China's economic transformation and the initiation of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which emphasizes new economic growth points such as quantum technology and hydrogen energy [1][2][3] - Historical data indicates that occurrences of ten consecutive days of gains in the A-share market are extremely rare, with only seven instances since 1990. The report notes that while short-term (5-day) gains are highly probable following such streaks, longer-term performance shows mixed results, necessitating an analysis of the core factors driving the market [2][4] - The report discusses the historical context of previous consecutive gain streaks, particularly from 1990 to 1992, where institutional reforms and stock scarcity propelled market growth. The completion of the stock split reform in 2006 is also noted as a significant factor that led to a bull market, supported by a healthy macroeconomic environment [3][5][7] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that strong fundamentals provide room for valuation recovery, and the smooth progress of reforms has catalyzed the current bull market. Short-term catalysts for consecutive gains stem from adjustments due to policy constraints, while mid-term factors include the ongoing stock split reform that boosts market sentiment [7][10] - Long-term market pricing remains anchored to fundamentals, with indicators suggesting that PPI growth is expected to converge, leading to an increase in corporate profit margins and subsequently driving A-share earnings recovery. The report suggests that the bull market is not yet over [11][12] - Investment recommendations focus on three key areas: the AI industry chain, sectors highlighted in the 14th Five-Year Plan such as aerospace and new materials, and cyclical price increases in industrial metals and chemicals, which are expected to show strong performance due to supply-demand dynamics and policy support [12]