印度例外论

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莫迪是一把双刃剑
Hu Xiu· 2025-08-05 02:45
Core Argument - The article discusses India's aspirations as a major power and critiques its perceived overestimation of influence on the global stage, highlighting the lack of economic strength, military capability, and genuine alliances to support its ambitions [2][28]. Group 1: India's Global Standing - Tata Group's strategic affairs chairman, Ashley Tellis, argues that India has overestimated its global influence and lacks the necessary economic and military strength to support its ambitions [2]. - The article contrasts India's capabilities with those of ASEAN, Africa, and South America, asserting that India has the strongest overall power among these regions, with a population of 1.4 billion and a GDP exceeding $4 trillion [6][7]. - Former Foreign Secretary Raoqi and other officials counter Tellis's claims, emphasizing India's cautious approach in international politics rather than aggressive ambitions [8]. Group 2: Strategic Autonomy and Alliances - Tellis criticizes India's aversion to formal alliances, suggesting that its strategic autonomy has left it without reliable partners during crises [9]. - India faces significant border challenges with nuclear-armed neighbors, China and Pakistan, which complicates its ability to form close alliances, particularly with the U.S. [10][11]. - The article outlines India's goal of leading a coalition of middle powers and emerging nations that are uncomfortable with both China and the West, indicating a strategic approach that prioritizes patience over immediate alliances [12][14]. Group 3: U.S.-India Relations - The article highlights the complexities of U.S.-India relations, noting that while the U.S. remains a dominant global power, it is reassessing its commitments in various regions, including Europe and Asia [17][18]. - Trump's administration criticized India's high tariffs and non-tariff barriers, leading to a proposed 25% tariff on Indian goods, which could disadvantage India in trade with the U.S. compared to Southeast Asian countries [23][25]. - The article suggests that the real concern lies with Washington's willingness to form solid alliances, rather than India's strategic choices, as the U.S. shifts its focus towards a more self-interested global stance [26][29]. Group 4: Domestic Perspectives on Foreign Policy - Within India, there are differing views on foreign policy, with "pro-U.S." advocates believing that embracing the U.S. is essential for India's rise, while "strategic autonomy" proponents emphasize India's unique historical and civilizational role [36][39]. - The current Indian leadership, influenced by Hindu nationalism, views cooperation with the U.S. as a means to enhance India's global standing while resisting complete Westernization [40][41]. - The article concludes that India's reluctance to fully align with the U.S. has led to missed opportunities for deeper strategic partnerships, resulting in a constrained position in South Asia [33].