Workflow
原奶价格下行周期
icon
Search documents
全球最大原料奶供应商遇困:2年半亏损超20亿,伊利拟“输血”优然牧业
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-27 12:25
Core Viewpoint - YouRan Dairy is set to receive financial support from its major shareholder, Yili, as it faces significant financial challenges after two and a half years of continuous losses [4][28]. Group 1: Financing and Share Issuance - YouRan Dairy plans to issue a total of 598.5 million shares to Yili's wholly-owned subsidiary, BoYuan Investment, raising approximately HKD 23.46 billion [4][28]. - The share issuance will occur at a price of HKD 3.92 per share, which represents a discount of about 17.89% compared to the average closing price of HKD 4.77 per share in the five trading days prior to the announcement [10][34]. - Following the completion of this transaction, Yili's stake in YouRan Dairy will increase to 36.07%, further solidifying its position as the largest shareholder [10][34]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - YouRan Dairy has reported cumulative losses exceeding RMB 20 billion over the past two and a half years, with significant financial pressure evident as the company faces a short-term funding gap of over RMB 150 billion [4][19][43]. - The company's revenue growth has slowed, with a total revenue of RMB 10.28 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a mere 2.3% increase year-on-year, a significant drop from the 10.8% growth in the same period of 2024 [12][36]. - The revenue from the ruminant animal breeding solutions segment has declined by 12.7% year-on-year, indicating challenges in maintaining sales volume amid changing market conditions [13][37]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The dairy industry is currently experiencing a downward cycle, with raw milk prices declining significantly, reaching a ten-year low of RMB 3.03 per kilogram by December 2025 [24][47]. - Despite being a leading player in the industry, YouRan Dairy is not immune to these market pressures, as evidenced by the continuous drop in average raw milk prices from RMB 4.90 per kilogram in 2021 to RMB 3.87 per kilogram in 2025 [24][47]. - Analysts predict a potential reversal in raw milk prices by the end of 2025 or early 2026, which could provide an opportunity for YouRan Dairy to recover and return to a growth trajectory [24][48].