牧业股继续走高，截至发稿，优然牧业(09858)涨10.26%，报3.33港元；中国圣牧(01432)涨9.23%，报 0.355港元；原生态牧业(01431)涨3.39%，报0.305港元；现代牧业(01117)涨2.36%，报1.3港元。 天风证券（601162）指出，当前奶牛产能去化或近尾声，Q3青贮收购带来的资金压力可能推动出清边 际加速，原奶价格有望触底回升；牛肉价格或迎拐点，但因资金/信心/环保等多重因素影响补栏积极 性，其后续涨幅与持续性可能超预期。具备母牛资源或采用"奶肉联动"模式的企业，盈利能力更加突 出。建议关注优然牧业、中国圣牧、光明肉业（600073）、现代牧业、澳亚集团等。 消息面上，原生态牧业公布，与控股股东中国飞鹤订立协议，于2026至28年向其供应原料奶，建议年度 销售额上限分别为31亿元人民币、34亿元及37亿元，占总收入的96%；拟供应的原料奶售价将不逊于集 团独立第三方客户所提供之售价。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，牧业股继续走高，截至发稿，优然牧业(09858)涨10.26%，报3.33港元；中国圣牧 (01432)涨9.23%，报0.355港元；原生态牧业(01431)涨3.39%，报0.305港元；现代牧业(01117)涨2.36%， 报1.3港元。 消息面上，原生态牧业公布，与控股股东中国飞鹤订立协议，于2026至28年向其供应原料奶，建议年度 销售额上限分别为31亿元人民币、34亿元及37亿元，占总收入的96%；拟供应的原料奶售价将不逊于集 团独立第三方客户所提供之售价。 天风证券指出，当前奶牛产能去化或近尾声，Q3青贮收购带来的资金压力可能推动出清边际加速，原 奶价格有望触底回升；牛肉价格或迎拐点，但因资金/信心/环保等多重因素影响补栏积极性，其后续涨 幅与持续性可能超预期。具备母牛资源或采用"奶肉联动"模式的企业，盈利能力更加突出。建议关注优 然牧业、中国圣牧、光明肉业、现代牧业、澳亚集团等。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a prolonged decline in raw milk prices, which has lasted for 28 consecutive months, marking the longest downturn since 2010 [1] Group 1: Raw Milk Price Trends - As of August this year, the average purchase price of raw milk in major producing provinces is 3.02 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.6% [1] Group 2: Company Operations - The management indicated that the company has accelerated the elimination of low-yield cows in the first quarter, which is now a regular practice [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9] Core Views - The current industry is at the historical bottom of the raw milk cycle, and the company's performance reflects the pressure from low milk prices. The company's earnings elasticity may come from the resonance of the "milk and meat" dual cycles, as the price of culled cattle (beef cattle) has entered an upward cycle, thereby reducing impairment losses on biological assets. With the industry's capacity reduction and the bottoming out of raw milk prices, the company is expected to see profit improvement in the second half of 2025 [2][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.073 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders recorded a loss of 913 million yuan, compared to a loss of 228 million yuan in the same period last year. The loss pressure mainly came from the fair value changes of dairy cows, which resulted in a loss of 1.823 billion yuan, an increase of 58.4% year-on-year. The cash EBITDA was 1.477 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, while the net cash generated from operating activities was 490 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.3% [4][5]. Raw Milk Business - The raw milk business revenue was 5.069 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.8% year-on-year. The comprehensive breeding solution business (feed, digital platform, etc.) revenue was 1.004 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.2%, mainly due to the company's proactive adjustment of sales strategy to control risks and focus on high-quality customers [5]. Cost Control and Efficiency - During the industry's price decline, the company's raw milk business demonstrated strong operational resilience. The average selling price of raw milk decreased by 10.1% to 3.29 yuan/kg, which is lower than the industry average decline of 11.66%. Benefiting from the expansion of herd size and improved yield efficiency, the total sales volume of raw milk increased by 10.3% to 1.542 million tons, offsetting some of the revenue decline due to price drops. The average unit cost of milk decreased to 2.32 yuan/kg (from 2.58 yuan in the same period last year), with core feed costs significantly reduced by 11.4% to 1.79 yuan/kg. The company's excellent cost control allowed the raw milk business gross margin to remain stable at a high level of 30.2%, compared to 30.3% in the same period last year [6]. Herd Structure Optimization - The pressure on the company's performance in the first half of 2025 was mainly due to the loss of 1.823 billion yuan from the fair value changes of biological assets, which is related to the company's proactive culling of low-yield and inefficient cattle and the reduction in cattle valuation. This short-term impact on the profit statement lays a solid foundation for long-term development. The herd structure has improved, with the proportion of dairy cows in the total herd increasing by 3.5 percentage points to 54.1%, leading to higher production efficiency. The average annual yield per dairy cow reached a record high of 13.2 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [7]. Market Outlook - The current industry is at the historical bottom of the raw milk cycle, and the company's performance reflects the pressure from low milk prices. The company's earnings elasticity may come from the resonance of the "milk and meat" dual cycles, as the price of culled cattle (beef cattle) has entered an upward cycle, thereby reducing impairment losses on biological assets. With the industry's capacity reduction and the bottoming out of raw milk prices, the company is expected to see profit improvement in the second half of 2025 [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][7][8]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated operational efficiency improvements and is positioned to benefit from a potential industry cycle reversal [2][4]. - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.284 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -297 million yuan, reflecting a reduction in losses by 34 million yuan [4]. - The company is the largest upstream provider of dairy products and services in China, maintaining operational resilience amid significant industry pressures [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue from raw milk business reached 7.896 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 7.9% year-on-year, driven by improved productivity and optimized herd structure [4]. - The average price of raw milk was 3.87 yuan per kilogram, down 7% year-on-year, while the average feed cost for high-quality fresh milk was 1.91 yuan per kilogram, down 12% [4]. - The company’s cash EBITDA for H1 2025 was 2.811 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [5]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 20.953 billion yuan, 22.331 billion yuan, and 23.922 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 4% and 7% [6][7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 340 million yuan, 1.256 billion yuan, and 2.153 billion yuan for the same years, with significant growth rates of 149%, 269%, and 71% [6][7]. - The report anticipates an improvement in return on equity (ROE) from -6% in 2024 to 14% by 2027 [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that YouRan Dairy (09858) experienced a decline of over 5%, with a current price of HKD 3.51 and a trading volume of HKD 685 million [1] - YouRan Dairy reported interim results for the six months ending June 30, 2025, with revenue of RMB 10.284 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.28% [1] - The company recorded a loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 297 million, which is a 10.37% reduction compared to the previous year, with a basic loss per share of RMB 0.08 [1] Group 2 - The announcement highlighted that the domestic raw milk supply and demand are experiencing a phase imbalance, leading to a decline in raw milk prices, with an average price of RMB 3.87 per kilogram, down 7.0% from RMB 4.16 per kilogram in the mid-2024 period [1] - Huatai Securities noted that the revenue performance of dairy products in the first half of 2025 is lackluster, with overall liquid milk demand remaining weak; however, current channel inventory levels are reasonable, and there is an expectation for demand recovery, particularly during the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday peak seasons [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to inventory clearance and reduced government subsidies, but anticipates recovery in the second half of the year with the potential positive impact of fertility subsidies and improved operational efficiency through digital management tools [1][2]. Financial Performance - For 25H1, the company achieved revenue of 9.15 billion yuan and a net profit of 1 billion yuan, representing year-on-year declines of 9.4% and 46.7%, respectively, aligning with prior forecasts [1]. - The gross margin decreased by 6.3 percentage points to 61.6%, while the net profit margin fell by 7.6 percentage points to 10.9%, largely due to reduced government subsidies and losses from inventory adjustments [2]. - The company plans to distribute at least 2 billion yuan in dividends and repurchase up to 10% of its shares, using at least 1 billion yuan for this purpose [2]. Business Segments - Revenue from dairy products and nutritional products declined by 9.1%, while revenue from raw milk plummeted by 79.8% in 25H1, reflecting ongoing demand pressures in the infant formula sector [1]. - The company reported revenues of 9.04 billion yuan in mainland China, 90 million yuan in the U.S., and 20 million yuan in Canada, with year-on-year changes of -9.5%, +11.9%, and -30.7%, respectively [1]. Future Outlook - The company expects the inventory adjustment process to conclude by August 2025, with anticipated positive effects from fertility subsidy policies in the second half of the year [1]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards to 19.91 billion, 21.20 billion, and 22.23 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing industry challenges and competitive pressures [2]. - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency through improved channel management and digital tools, which may lead to better profitability in the long term [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported a significant reduction in losses for the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.651 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. The sales revenue was 1.444 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.11% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company reduced losses to 48 million RMB from 95 million RMB. Cash EBITDA increased by 19.7% to 484 million RMB [5] - The company has improved its per unit production, with a low proportion of breeding cows, which provides ample support for future production capacity. The sales volume for the first half of the year was 373,000 tons, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, benefiting from a 1.7% increase in per unit production to 12.27 tons and an increase in the number and proportion of breeding cows, which currently stands at 44.9%, up 1.4 percentage points from the end of 2024 [6] - The beef business turned profitable, with revenue reaching 145 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 616.98%, and sales volume of 15,010 heads, a year-on-year increase of 502.3%. The average selling price increased by 19%, achieving a gross profit of 3 million RMB, compared to a loss of 15 million RMB in the same period last year [7] - Cost improvements offset most of the downward pressure from milk prices, but the valuation of breeding cows per head was still adjusted downwards, indicating that the fundamentals need to reverse. The average sales cost of milk decreased to 2.89 RMB/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%, partially offsetting the gross margin pressure from the decline in raw milk prices [8] Financial Forecasts - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 70 million, 600 million, and 850 million RMB respectively, with the previous values being -47 million, 436 million, and 709 million RMB. The PE ratio for 2026 is projected to be 5 times [9] - Revenue for 2025 is expected to be 2.986 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.47%. The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 733 million RMB, with a significant year-on-year increase of 211.94% [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 6.07 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, with a net loss of 980 million yuan compared to a net loss of 210 million yuan in the same period last year. The cash EBITDA was 1.48 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, aligning with previous performance forecasts [1][3]. Revenue and Sales Performance - In H1 2025, raw milk revenue decreased by 0.8% to 5.07 billion yuan, with sales volume increasing by 10.3% but average price declining by 10.1% to 3.29 yuan/kg due to weak domestic demand and falling market prices [2][3]. - The company has improved its herd management by eliminating low-yield cows and focusing on enhancing the core herd ratio, resulting in a total herd size of 472,000 heads, up 6.2% year-on-year, and a lactating cow count of 256,000 heads, up 13.4% year-on-year [2]. Profitability and Financial Metrics - The gross margin increased by 0.3 percentage points to 26.4%, while the gross margin for the raw milk business decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 30.2% [3]. - The company experienced a fair value loss of biological assets amounting to 1.82 billion yuan, an increase in loss of 670 million yuan year-on-year, primarily due to increased culling and declining raw milk prices [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in the dairy product industry by 2026, expecting a return to supply-demand balance, which could lead to rising raw milk prices and improved profitability for upstream dairy farms [1][3]. - The company maintains its earnings forecast, projecting EPS of -0.17, 0.08, and 0.14 yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, and sets a target price of 1.58 HKD based on a 26-year PE of 18x [3].

Core Viewpoint - Modern Dairy (Group) Co., Ltd. reported its performance for the first half of 2025, indicating stable cash flow but challenges due to oversupply in the domestic raw milk market, leading to low prices [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 6.073 billion yuan, with cash EBITDA remaining stable at 1.477 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [1]. - Raw milk business revenue was 5.069 billion yuan, while comprehensive breeding solutions generated 1.004 billion yuan [2]. - The raw milk production reached 1.66 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [2]. Cost Management - The company maintained a cost-leading strategy, with the cost of milk sales decreasing to 2.32 yuan per kilogram, down 10.1% year-on-year [2][3]. - Feed costs were 1.79 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 11.4%, and other cash costs were 0.41 yuan per kilogram, down 6.8% [2]. - The net cash flow remained at 490 million yuan, an increase of 23.3% year-on-year, despite non-cash losses impacting profitability [2][3]. Market Conditions - The domestic raw milk market continues to experience oversupply, with prices significantly lower than in 2024 [3]. - The company anticipates a potential recovery in raw milk prices by the end of this year or next year as supply-demand dynamics change [3]. Capital Market Activity - Modern Dairy successfully issued a $350 million five-year senior unsecured sustainable development bond, receiving strong interest from over 120 institutional investors, with a subscription peak exceeding $2.3 billion [4]. - This marks the company's return to the offshore bond market after four years and is its first sustainable development bond [4]. Sustainable Development Initiatives - The company has established a FRESH sustainable development strategy, focusing on green innovation and carbon reduction technologies [5]. - Modern Dairy has achieved ISO 14064 certification for greenhouse gas emissions and has improved its MSCI rating to A, ranking first in China's livestock industry [5]. - The company aims to explore new business models in dairy farming services and expand into overseas markets while collaborating with research institutions [5].