| [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 9858 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 2.54/1.06 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 87.98 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 2.26 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 87.98 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 3,892.73 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司 24FY 实现营业收入 201.0 亿元，同比+7.5%，实现股东应占亏损 6.91 亿元，去年同期为亏损 10.50 亿元。据此推算，公司 24H2 实现营业收入 100.5 亿元，同比+4.6%，实现股东应占亏损 3.6 亿元， 去年同期为亏损 0.58 亿元。 分析判断: ► 原料奶业务增长，反刍动物养殖解决方案业务承压 证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 现金 EBITDA 表现亮眼，期待原奶周期反转 [Table_Title2] 优 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [10]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term profit pressure but has strong cash flow performance. Revenue for 2024 was 13.254 billion, a decrease of 1.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.469 billion, compared to a profit of 0.185 billion in the previous year. The decline in profit was primarily due to losses from changes in the fair value of dairy cows and goodwill impairment [6]. - The profitability of raw milk continues to improve, with revenue from raw milk reaching 10.454 billion, an increase of 1.9%, and a gross margin of 31.2%, up by 2.8 percentage points. The company anticipates a gradual recovery in milk prices as the industry undergoes consolidation [7]. - The company is expanding its feed business and making breakthroughs in breeding, with comprehensive solutions for dairy farming generating 2.8 billion in revenue, despite a 12.4% decrease. The sales volume of feed has exceeded 1 million tons [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 132.54 billion, down 1.5%, and a net profit of -14.69 billion, compared to 1.85 billion in the previous year. The gross margin improved to 26.0%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points. Cash EBITDA was 29.86 billion, with a cash EBITDA margin of 22.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.6% and 4.0 percentage points respectively [6]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 28.08 billion, up 17.3%, while capital expenditure decreased by 8.1% to 34.52 billion [6]. Raw Milk Business - Raw milk revenue was 104.54 billion, accounting for 78.9% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 31.2%. The production volume reached 3.01 million tons, an increase of 16.1%. The average selling price of raw milk was 3.61 yuan/kg, down 10.4% from the previous year, but still above the market price of 3.32 yuan/kg [7]. Future Outlook - The company expects revenue growth for 2025-2027 to be 139.50 billion, 147.80 billion, and 156.91 billion respectively, with EPS projected at 0.04, 0.10, and 0.15 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 25, 11, and 7 times for the respective years [10].