Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The Chinese log market has shown an active trend of increasing supply and demand recently. With the gradual realization of peak - season demand and the low valuation of the futures market, it is recommended to position for the long - term on dips in the 11 - contract to play the peak - season market, while paying attention to macro - policy stimulus and actual demand verification [22][23]. Summary by Directory Log 2511 Contract Trend Review No specific trend review content is provided in the given text. Fundamental Analysis - Spot prices: The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan/cubic meter, with a monthly increase of 20 yuan/cubic meter; the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu is 780 yuan/cubic meter, also with a monthly increase of 20 yuan/cubic meter. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs from New Zealand is 114 US dollars/JAS square, down 2 US dollars from last week [10][13]. - Shipment and inventory: In July 2025, New Zealand's expected log shipment volume was 1.955 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 13.19%, and the number of ships was 47, a month - on - month decrease of 5. As of August 30, China's log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 3000 cubic meters. The daily average log outbound volume of 13 ports was 64,200 cubic meters as of August 31, a monthly increase of 1100 cubic meters [15][18][20]. Trading Strategy Logic - Market situation: The log market has shown a situation of increasing supply and demand. The weekly pre - arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 ports reached 15 ships (509,000 cubic meters), a month - on - month surge of 48%. The national softwood log inventory decreased to 2.86 million cubic meters. The daily average outbound volume of 7 provinces and 13 ports increased to 65,600 cubic meters [22]. - Cost and price: The weakening of the US dollar against the RMB is beneficial, but the New Zealand dollar exchange rate and the bulk carrier freight index have risen simultaneously, and the overall cost pressure remains. Before and after the double festivals, the spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter and then remained stable. The supply side had a significant increase in the arrival volume last week, and the demand side was affected by the holiday, but most processing plants maintained production [22]. - Inventory: The national softwood log inventory decreased by 60,000 cubic meters last week, with radiata pine accounting for 40,000 cubic meters and North American timber 10,000 cubic meters. Jiangsu ports reduced inventory by 69,700 cubic meters, while Shandong slightly increased inventory by 8000 cubic meters [22].