原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月24日 日 295.00 293.00 曹剑兰 | | | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 11月21日 | 11月20日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 768.5 | 772.0 | -3.5 | -0.45% | | | 原木2603 | 777.5 | 787.5 | -10.0 | -1.27% | | | 原木2605 | 793.5 | 801.0 | -7.5 | -0.94% | | | 01-03价差 | -9.0 | -15.5 | 6.5 | | | | 01-05价差 | -25.0 | -29.0 | 4.0 | | | | 03合约基差 | -27.5 | -37.5 | 10.0 | | | | 01合约基左 | -18.5 | -22.0 | 3.5 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 690.0 | 690.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射松 | 7 ...

人民日报记者 赵展慧 "我们通过科学设计原木期货交割质量标准，推动南北方原木体积测量标准统一，解决同一原木检 尺差异最高达10%的难题，促进消除区域贸易纠纷。"大商所有关业务负责人表示，原木期货的成功上 市，推动这个年加工产值超过2万亿元的产业加速迈向规范化。 "因为各地标准不统一，以前销往不同地方的木材要适应不同的测量方式，原木期货上市后，相当 于为行业提供了一个'标尺'，使得各地从独立的度量模式向期货交割标准靠拢，我们的加工和检测成本 都降低了。"张若凡介绍。同时，作为贸易企业，本来要承受上下游两头的价格波动风险，如今有了原 木期货和期权，企业有了风险对冲的工具，能够更稳健地经营。 如今，苏豪中锦不仅是原木贸易商，还成为原木期货交割库。"今年7月，我们迎来了原木期货上市 后的首个交割月，完成85手交割出货。"张若凡说，依托期货交割质量标准清晰、客观、可量化、可检 验的特点，一年来能明显感受到标品货物具备更高的流动性。此外，苏豪中锦还在期货交割过程中引入 了机器检尺，以智能化的手段降低检验误差，在更好保障买卖双方权益的同时，进一步推动了行业的转 型升级。 除了原木品种之外，再生钢铁原料领域标准化难题同样迎来 ...

在本届进博会上，国内大型原木贸易企业江苏苏豪中锦发展有限公司与新西兰木材供应商富存纳林业有 限公司签订合约，继2024年之后二度合作。"国内市场循环更畅通，今年我们进口规模较去年同期有所 增长。"苏豪中锦公司鸿协公司总经理张若凡说，目前公司还与俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦等国家 展开农林产业相关合作，年贸易额达5000万美元。 "锤音"落地，总量200万立方米、金额2.28亿美元的辐射松原木采购意向合同达成！ 苏豪中锦业务的增长得益于一个期货新品种的上市。2024年11月，原木期货、期权在大连商品交易所上 市，为苏豪中锦这样的贸易公司带来了新利好。长期以来，我国原木现货市场存在测量标准不统一、操 作不规范的问题，比如南北方在原木长度、径级的测定上存在一定差异，不同地区的木材商容易因此产 生纠纷，也制约了木材行业全国统一市场的形成。 "十五五"规划建议提出，"坚决破除阻碍全国统一大市场建设卡点堵点""健全一体衔接的流通规则和标 准"。期货作为在将来某一特定的时间和地点交割一定数量标的物的标准化合约，有着天然的"标准"属 性，能够助力破除不同地区市场间标准不同的卡点堵点。 建设全国统一大市场，不是关起门来搞封闭运 ...

| | | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 11月20日 | 11月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 772.0 | 775.5 | -3.5 | -0.45% | | | 原木2603 | 787.5 | 791.5 | -4.0 | -0.51% | | | 原木2605 | 801.0 | 804.5 | -3.5 | -0.44% | | | 01-03价差 | -15.5 | -16.0 | 0.5 | | | | 01-05价差 | -29.0 | -29.0 | 0.0 | | | | 03合约基差 | -37.5 | -41.5 | 4.0 | | | | 01合约基左 | -22.0 | -25.5 | 3.5 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 690.0 | 690.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射松 | 750 | 750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A大辐射松 | 850 | 850 | 0 | ...

Report Overview - The report provides a market analysis of various futures varieties on November 20, 2025, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, live pigs, soybean meal, palm oil, Shanghai copper, logs, iron ore, asphalt, cotton, steel, alumina, and Shanghai aluminum [1][2][3] Stock Index Futures - On November 20, A-share market indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.40% to 3931.05, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.76% to 12980.82, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.12% to 3042.34. The trading volume was 1708.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4564.95, down 23.34 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal Price Movement - On November 20, the coke weighted index closed at 1673.5, down 12.7, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 1140.6 yuan, down 38.0 [2][3] Market Analysis - Coke: After the fourth round of price increases, some coke enterprises are still in the red. The overall supply has decreased. Demand increased due to unexpected resumption of production in Hebei steel mills last week, but there is an expectation of seasonal decline in molten iron. The fifth round of price increases is temporarily on hold. - Coking coal: Supply has increased slightly but is limited by environmental protection and safety supervision. Although molten iron production rebounded unexpectedly last week, the profit rate of steel mills decreased. Downstream coking plants have higher inventory days than in previous years, and the mine auction failure rate is high [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by sufficient supply and lower spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell on November 20. From January - October 2025, China imported 100 million tons of syrup and white sugar premix, a year - on - year decrease of 963600 tons [4] Rubber - On November 20, Shanghai rubber declined slightly during the day due to the weakening prospect of a December interest rate cut in the US, but rose at night due to speculation on the weather in Thailand's rubber - producing areas. In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, with month - on - month increases of 2.5% and 3% and year - on - year increases of 12.1% and 8.8% [4][6] Live Pigs - On November 20, the LH2601 contract closed at 11440 yuan/ton, down 1.04%. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Although the decrease in temperature boosts some consumption, the demand recovery is slow due to the late Spring Festival and the impact of substitutes [6] Soybean Meal International Market - On November 20, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The US soybean export sales were at the lower end of the forecast range. As of November 13, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 71%, lower than 80% last year, and the estimated output is 1.767 billion tons [6] Domestic Market - On November 20, the M2601 contract closed at 3017 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is close to one million tons. China has purchased about one million tons of US soybeans [6] Palm Oil - On November 20, the palm oil futures P2601 contract closed at 8646, down 2.33%. From November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 828680 tons, a 14.1% decrease from the same period last month [6] Shanghai Copper - On November 20, the Shanghai Copper 2601 contract closed at 86130 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The macro - environment has a hawkish stance on interest rates, and the supply of copper concentrates is tight, while demand from emerging industries provides support [6] Logs - On November 20, the log 2601 contract closed at 772, with an increase of 1121 lots in positions. In October, log imports decreased by 16.3% year - on - year [6][8] Iron Ore - On November 20, the iron ore 2601 contract closed at 788.5 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally, but the price is in a volatile trend due to limited growth space for molten iron production [8] Asphalt - On November 20, the asphalt 2601 contract closed at 3058 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is being depleted, but the demand is limited by cold weather [8] Cotton - On November 20, the Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 13500 yuan/ton at night, and the inventory increased by 17 lots. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg [8] Steel - On November 20, rb2601 closed at 3050 yuan/ton, and hc2601 at 3267 yuan/ton. The steel market is in a multi - empty game situation, and the steel price is under short - term pressure due to the decline in raw material costs [8] Alumina - On November 20, the ao2601 contract closed at 2732 yuan/ton. The supply of bauxite is abundant, and the price is under pressure. The market trading volume is limited [8] Shanghai Aluminum - On November 20, the al2601 contract closed at 21570 yuan/ton. The metal market is in a volatile state. The supply of aluminum ingots is normal, and the social inventory is decreasing, while the demand shows a weakening trend [8]

2025年11月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：偏弱震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：偏弱震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 来源：Mysteel，东财 Choice，国泰君安期货研究所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 21 日 （1）财联社 11 月 14 日电，国家统计局数据显示，10 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长 4.9%。 从环比看，10 月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.17%。1—10 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.1%。(来自财联社 APP) 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | ...

原木期货、期权的上市，是期货市场服务现代林业体系建设、增强重要大宗商品供给保障能力的具体实 践。历经一年的精心培育，原木期货、期权在服务木材产业高质量发展和提升我国国际木材市场影响力 方面已展现出初步成效。 "首届中国木业高质量发展大会（大连论坛）"在大连举行 11月18日，由中国木材与木制品流通协会主办，大连市工业和信息化局、大连市商务局及大连市木业协 会等单位支持的"首届中国木业高质量发展大会（大连论坛）"在大连举行，来自行业协会、产业企业、 金融机构、地方政府及外国驻华机构的600余位代表参会。此次大会以"期现联动融通未来"为主题，全 方位聚焦中国木业高质量发展大计。 木材产业的新变化 木材是国家经济建设与绿色发展的重要基础原材料，其供应链的稳定与产业的升级不仅关乎国计民生， 更关乎国家生态安全与木材安全大局。我国木业已走过30多年飞速发展的历程，从小到大、从弱变强， 产业规模从几百亿元迈向十万多亿元，产业链条从单一走向完整。当前，全球有100多个国家向中国出 口木材，我国向180多个国家和地区出口木制品，已成为全球最大的木材与木制品生产国、消费国和贸 易国。 原木期货无疑是一种很好的保护。比如，今年上 ...

原木期货日报 295.00 电子 293.00 2.0 0.68% 195.40 山东 191.5 3.9 万/立方米 2.04% 1.2 江苏 82 45 1.46% 83.66 需求:日均出库量 (周度) 11月7日 涨跌 11月14日 涨跌幅 地区 車位 中国 6.56 6.63 -0.07 -1% 3.79 -0.12 山东 -3% 力/立方米 3.67 江苏 2.28 2.44 0.16 7% 原木主要港口库存(万方) 原木日均出库量(万方) 750 650 550 450 350 250 150 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/112/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/1 1/1 = 2023 = 2023 = =2024 =2025 -2023 =2024 =2022 2025 辐射松4米中A:CFR价(美元/JAS立方米 辐射松3.8中A现货价(元/立方米) 220 870 2020 2021 =2022 2024 2025 · 2023 850 180 830 160 810 ...

"原木期货价格较好地反映了市场供需基本面的变化。"对于原木期货上市首年的运行情况，中信建投期货农产品高级研究员陈家谊表示，今年以 来，期货价格对宏观预期、进口到港量、港口库存变化及季节性因素均能做出较为灵敏的反应。 原木期货和期权分别于2024年11月18日和19日在大商所上市。如今上市满一年，原木期货和期权市场运行如何？发挥了哪些功能作用？为产业链 带来了哪些变化？ ——市场运行平稳有序。 作为重要的林业资源之一，原木在相关产业中占据着关键地位，现货产业的风险管理和定价需求也为原木期货和期权的稳起步奠定了坚实的基 础。 一年来，原木期货和期权成交持仓规模稳步增长，其中原木期货累计挂牌8个合约、原木期权累计挂牌164个合约，二者合计成交约787万手，成 交金额约4640亿元，日均成交约3.24万手，日均持仓约5.34万手。 从价格走势来看，原木期货与现货均呈现先涨后跌的态势，期现价格联动性逐渐增强，原木期货价格发现功能日益显现。 采销周期中的价格波动风险是原木产业企业面临的主要挑战之一。近年来，越来越多贸易和加工企业开始利用原木期货和期权来应对市场波动、 稳定成本利润。 浙江物产森华集团有限公司是一家专业从事 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The decline in spot prices has led to a weakening of the futures market. The log port inventory as of November 7th was 2.93 million cubic meters (+5), with a daily average outbound volume of 66,300 cubic meters per day (+3,500), maintaining resilience. The prices of certain log specifications in the spot market have decreased this week. The impact of the opening of US log imports on the futures market is relatively small. The lg2601 contract showed a weekly increase of 1.28% and remained in a low - volatility oscillation state this week, while the lg2603 contract rose 0.38% with a position of only 4,000 lots. There is an opportunity to short the 01 - 03 spread in the long - term [5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Log Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 780 - 830, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [1]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price declines, enterprises with long spot exposure can short log futures (lg2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 810 - 820 [1]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on order situations, enterprises with short spot exposure can buy log futures (lg2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 740 - 750 [1]. Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: lg2601 closed at 775.5 (-11) with a position of 17,000 lots, and lg2603 closed at 791.5 (-5) [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price decreased this week. For example, the market price of 5.9 - meter medium A logs in Lanshan area was 770 (-10) [4]. - **Valuation**: The warehouse receipt cost is approximately 811 yuan per cubic meter in the Yangtze River Delta and 803 yuan per cubic meter in Shandong [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 7th, the national inventory was 2.93 million cubic meters (+5) [4]. Core Contradictions - The decline in spot prices has led to a weakening of the futures market. The log port inventory is increasing, and the daily average outbound volume remains resilient. The prices of certain log specifications in the spot market have decreased, and the impact of the opening of US log imports on the futures market is relatively small [5]. Strategies - Short at high prices. - Pay attention to the 01 - 03 reverse spread opportunity in the long - term. - Short the lg2601 - C - 800 position at high prices [7]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The inventory is relatively low [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The emergence of domestic deliverable log products; the reduced willingness of buyers to accept deliverable products at non - mainstream delivery warehouses; the decline in spot prices and weak market demand [9].