1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The view on asphalt this week is that it will fluctuate weakly following the cost. The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt has decreased, and it is expected to decline further next week. Demand varies by region, with消极 sentiment in Shandong and general demand in East China. Asphalt is following the decline of crude oil, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation in South China [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: As of October 9, 2025, the domestic asphalt capacity utilization rate was 37%, a 1.5% decrease from the previous period. Considering the shutdown of Shandong Shengxing and Jiangsu Xinhai, the capacity utilization rate is expected to decline further next week [4]. - **Demand**: In Shandong, downstream operators are消极, and continuous rainfall has hindered terminal demand. In East China, operators purchase on - demand, and social inventory has decreased. - **View**: Asphalt follows the decline of crude oil, and the shipment has slowed down during the holiday. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation in South China. - **Valuation**: This week, BU fluctuated weakly with crude oil, and the spot price declined under pressure. The weekly average price of domestic asphalt was 3,592 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from the previous period. The spot price in the north decreased significantly, mainly due to the decline of Brent crude oil and continuous rainfall. In the south, the price support is insufficient [4]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategies for unilateral, inter - period, or inter - variety trading are provided [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different raw materials have different asphalt yields, with Ma Rui crude oil having a yield of 55% - 60% [7]. - **Futures - Disk Price and Trading Volume/Open Interest**: There are data on the open interest of asphalt futures and the flow of Venezuelan Ma Rui crude oil to different countries [9][10]. - **Spot - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt and Ma Rui Crude Oil**: There are data on the prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions and the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [13]. - **Spread - Basis and Calendar Spread**: There are data on the basis in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta and the calendar spread of different contract months [16][21]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Demand - **Consumption Distribution**: Asphalt demand is mainly in the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact [24]. - **Downstream Shipment**: Before the holiday (September 17 - 23, 2025), the total shipment of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 496,000 tons, a 9.0% increase from the previous period. Shandong saw a significant increase, while East China decreased. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 18.9%, a 1.3% decrease from the previous period and a 0.8% increase year - on - year [26]. 3.3.2 Supply - **Supply Pattern**: Domestic asphalt supply comes from domestic refineries (including state - owned and local refineries) and imports. Key indicators include inventory, production profit, maintenance plans, and monthly production schedules [28]. - **Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refineries was 751,000 tons, a 7.9% increase from September 29. The total inventory of 104 domestic social asphalt warehouses was 1.48 million tons, an 8.4% decrease from September 29 [32]. - **开工**: There are data on the weekly开工 rate of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions [35]. - **Inventory**: There are data on the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries and the asphalt market in different regions [44].