Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil price has corrected, and the supply remains tight. The asphalt futures market is affected by the crude oil price and geopolitical factors, with short - term volatility. If the terminal consumption recovers seasonally or remains stable, the inventory reduction expectation is strong, and the market structure is still supported. However, the asphalt futures market may be repeatedly disturbed by news, and both long and short positions lack a safety margin [1]. - For investment strategies, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for unilateral trading, and pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage at low prices for inter - period trading [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 31, the closing price of the main BU2606 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 4,512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton or 1.53% compared with the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 274,080 lots, a net increase of 211 lots, and the trading volume was 1,044,757 lots, a net increase of 83,313 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 4,636 - 4,690 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 4,320 - 4,570 yuan/ton in Shandong, 4,530 - 4,750 yuan/ton in South China, and 4,720 - 4,840 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in Northeast and South China rose slightly, while those in other regions remained stable. The crude oil and asphalt futures corrected, and the spot market sentiment was mainly wait - and - see, with a tight supply in some areas [1]. - Due to raw material shortages, the domestic asphalt refinery production schedule is expected to decline significantly in April. If the terminal consumption recovers seasonally or remains stable, the inventory reduction expectation is strong, and the market structure is supported. The asphalt futures market may be repeatedly disturbed by news, and both long and short positions lack a safety margin [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term sharp fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Inter - period: Pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage at low prices [2]. - Cross - variety: No recommendation [2]. - Spot - futures: No recommendation [2]. - Options: No recommendation [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Market sentiment for pushing up prices is strong, and spot prices generally show an upward trend. Although the market's expectations regarding the Iranian situation lead to repeated swings in emotional premiums, the impact on the actual fundamentals is gradually materializing. Due to raw material shortages, the domestic asphalt refinery production schedule is expected to decline significantly in April, and if terminal consumption seasonally rebounds or remains stable, the expectation of inventory reduction is strong, and the market structure is still supported. The futures market may be repeatedly disturbed by news in the short - term, and both long and short positions lack a safety margin, so caution is needed [1]. - For trading strategies, in the short - term, the market will experience severe fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see. For inter - period trading, attention should be paid to the opportunity of positive spreads at low prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 30, the closing price of the main BU2606 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 4,513 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's settlement price, with a gain of 0.02%. The open interest was 273,869 lots, a decrease of 6,154 lots compared with the previous day, and the trading volume was 961,444 lots, a decrease of 75,830 lots compared with the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 4,606 - 4,690 yuan/ton in Northeast China; 4,320 - 4,570 yuan/ton in Shandong; 4,530 - 4,650 yuan/ton in South China; 4,720 - 4,840 yuan/ton in East China. The spot price of asphalt in North China decreased yesterday, while those in other regions increased to varying degrees [1][2]. - The supply of asphalt spot resources in some regions is tight, the supply - side support is strong, and the international oil price is at a high level, leading to strong market sentiment for pushing up prices. Due to raw material shortages, the domestic asphalt refinery production schedule is expected to decline significantly in April, especially as major refineries prioritize the supply of gasoline and diesel, which may reduce asphalt production. If terminal consumption seasonally rebounds or remains stable, the expectation of inventory reduction is strong, and the market structure is still supported [1]. Strategy - Unilateral trading: In the short - term, there will be severe fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - Inter - period trading: Pay attention to the opportunity of positive spreads at low prices [2]. - Cross - variety trading: No specific strategy provided [2]. - Spot - futures trading: No specific strategy provided [2]. - Options trading: No specific strategy provided [2]. Figures - There are multiple figures in the report, including those related to the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest China, Northwest China), the closing prices of the petroleum asphalt futures index, the main contract, and the near - month contract, the monthly spread of the near - month contract, the trading volume and open interest of the petroleum asphalt futures, the weekly domestic asphalt production, the asphalt production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), the domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and the asphalt refinery inventory and social inventory according to Longzhong's data [3].

Economic Overview - The latest GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index as of March 28 is 5.3%, unchanged from the previous value[1] - The industrial and service sectors show mixed performance, indicating overall stability in production but internal structural differentiation[1] Production Insights - The service sector's prosperity index slightly increased to 3.4% from 3.2%, while the industrial sector's index decreased to 8.0% from 8.2%[9] - The overall production indicators remain stable, with some differentiation observed within the sectors[10] Demand Analysis - Consumer demand is weakening, with the consumption high-frequency index dropping to 3.0% from 3.5%[9] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities decreased by 17.1% year-on-year, indicating renewed pressure on the housing market[18] - Export performance remains strong, with container throughput increasing to 684,000 TEUs from 659,000 TEUs[54] Price Trends - Both consumer and industrial product prices have declined, with the agricultural wholesale price index dropping by 0.83%[64] - The average wholesale price of pork fell to 16.08 CNY/kg, down 3.1% week-on-week and 22.7% year-on-year[68] Risk Factors - Economic structural transformation may lead to a decline in the fitting degree of traditional indicators[2] - Geopolitical tensions may exceed expectations, posing additional risks to economic stability[2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The emotional premium of the asphalt market has narrowed, but real - world contradictions still exist. The market's expectation of eased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has led to a decline in international oil prices, weakening the cost - side support for asphalt. However, the conflict has not ended, supply - side contradictions are not substantially resolved. Due to raw material shortages, domestic asphalt refinery production is expected to decline significantly in April. If terminal consumption seasonally rebounds or remains stable, the de - stocking expectation is strong, and the market structure is still supported. The futures market may be repeatedly disturbed by news in the short term, and both long and short positions lack a safety margin [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 25, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2606 in the afternoon session was 4,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan/ton or 1.1% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 241,074 lots, a net increase of 610 lots, and the trading volume was 903,232 lots, a decrease of 144,430 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 4,506 - 4,690 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 4,200 - 4,400 yuan/ton in Shandong, 4,300 - 4,600 yuan/ton in South China, 4,450 - 4,590 yuan/ton in East China. The asphalt spot price in Northwest China was generally stable, that in Northeast China rose slightly, and prices in other regions decreased to varying degrees [1] Strategy - Unilateral trading: The market will experience sharp short - term fluctuations, so it is advisable to wait and see [2] - Inter - delivery spread trading: Pay attention to the opportunity of positive spreads on dips [2] - Cross - variety trading: No trading strategy provided [2] - Spot - futures trading: No trading strategy provided [2] - Options trading: No trading strategy provided [2]

- The report utilizes the input-output table data to quantify the cost structure and cost transmission capabilities of various industries, focusing on the intermediate product quadrant, which represents the demand of each economic sector for products from other sectors. The cost distribution weight for a sector is calculated by dividing the column data of the input-output table by the total input minus operating surplus for that sector[12][13][16] - A regression model is employed to measure the cost transmission capability of industries. The estimated cost and product price (PPI) series are regressed, with the regression slope serving as a proxy for cost transmission capability. To account for inventory buffering effects, the optimal lag period is determined by calculating the time-lagged correlation coefficient between cost and price series, and regression is performed at the optimal lag[16][17][18] - The cost transmission capability coefficients reveal that upstream industries such as oil, coal, and iron ore exhibit strong cost transmission capabilities due to low cost elasticity and high product price elasticity. Midstream industries like steel and chemicals also demonstrate strong cost transmission capabilities, often exceeding 1, indicating that price increases in upstream resources do not harm their profitability. In contrast, downstream industries generally have weaker cost transmission capabilities, often below 1, making them more vulnerable to raw material price increases[18][19] - The report quantifies the profit margin changes across industries under the impact of a 50% increase in oil prices. Industries with rigid downstream pricing and direct exposure to energy costs, such as gas production and supply, suffer the most. Other significantly affected industries include non-metallic mineral mining, rubber and plastic products, and printing. However, industries like chemical manufacturing and chemical fiber manufacturing benefit from strong cost transmission capabilities, which mitigate the impact of rising oil prices on their profit margins[19][20] - The average inventory turnover months of industries are calculated using industrial enterprise revenue and inventory data. The analysis finds a positive correlation between inventory turnover months and the lag in product price changes relative to cost increases. Industries with higher inventory turnover months have greater "buffering capacity," allowing them to delay price increases and absorb cost pressures for longer periods[23][24][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt futures market followed the decline of crude oil, and the cost - side trend was unclear. The conflict in the Middle East has not ended, and the supply - side contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The futures market may be repeatedly disturbed by news in the short term, and both long and short positions lack a safety margin, so caution is needed [1]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see due to the short - term sharp fluctuations in the single - side market, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 24, the closing price of the main BU2606 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon was 4401 yuan/ton, a decrease of 167 yuan/ton or 3.66% compared with the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 240,464 lots, a decrease of 16,940 lots compared with the previous day, and the trading volume was 1,047,662 lots, an increase of 178,529 lots compared with the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were: 4556 - 4580 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 4300 - 4400 yuan/ton in Shandong, 4500 - 4600 yuan/ton in South China, and 4570 - 4590 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in Northeast, North China, Shandong, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions increased to varying degrees, while those in other regions were generally stable. The supply of asphalt spot resources in some areas was tight, which supported the market sentiment [1]. Strategy - Single - side: Short - term sharp fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see. - Inter - period: No strategy. - Cross - variety: No strategy. - Spot - futures: No strategy. - Options: No strategy [2] Figures - There are multiple figures including those showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), the closing prices of the asphalt futures index, main contract, and near - month contract, the monthly spread of the near - month contract, the trading volume and open interest of the asphalt futures, the weekly production of domestic asphalt, the production of independent refineries and asphalt in different regions, and the consumption and inventory of asphalt [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's tightening expectations are gradually being realized, and spot prices continue to rise. The fundamentals of asphalt still have positive drivers, but attention should be paid to significant fluctuations in the single - side price of the futures after the basis weakens [1][2]. - Due to the high - level operation of crude oil and the strong upward trend of asphalt futures, the sentiment in the asphalt spot market has been boosted. However, the current situation in Iran is unclear, and the market is in a state of high volatility, so both long and short positions lack a safety margin, and caution is needed [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On the afternoon of March 23, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2606 was 4,661 yuan/ton, up 191 yuan/ton or 4.27% from the previous settlement price, with an open interest of 257,404 lots (a net increase of 10,776 lots), and trading volume of 869,133 lots (a decrease of 112,035 lots) [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions are as follows: Northeast China, 4,496 - 4,580 yuan/ton; Shandong, 4,280 - 4,300 yuan/ton; South China, 4,500 - 4,600 yuan/ton; East China, 4,570 - 4,590 yuan/ton [1]. - Yesterday, asphalt spot prices in the northwest region remained generally stable, while prices in other regions increased to varying degrees [2]. Strategy - Single - side: The short - term trend is oscillating upward, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iran situation [3]. - Inter - delivery: Pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage at low prices (BU2605/2606) [3]. - Inter - commodity: No strategy provided [3]. - Futures - spot: No strategy provided [3]. - Options: No strategy provided [3]. Figures The report includes figures related to asphalt spot prices in various regions, asphalt futures prices, trading volume and open interest, domestic asphalt production, consumption, and inventory, with units such as yuan/ton, lots, and 10,000 tons [4].

Industrial Production - Steel production continues to recover, with major varieties showing improved apparent demand[1] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate increased, while some chemical products' operating rates improved month-on-month[1] - The operating rate of polyester in the textile industry increased, and the operating rate of automotive tires continued to recover[1] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, with a slight recovery compared to earlier months[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 1.50% compared to the previous value[1] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars in March (1-15) were 561,000 units, down 21% year-on-year[1] - Major home appliance retail sales decreased by 31.1% year-on-year, a drop of 19.2 percentage points from the previous value[1] - Domestic flight operations increased by 5.9% year-on-year, while the Baidu migration index rose by 19%[1] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with container throughput up by 11.1%[1] - The export container freight index rose by 4.5% month-on-month[1] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Price Index fell by 0.9%, while the Nanhua Petrochemical Index rose by 3.1%[1] - The price of rebar futures decreased by 0.6%, while the spot price fell by 0.2%[1] - The agricultural product wholesale price index dropped by 0.9%[1]

Economic Trends - The cement dispatch rate improved significantly, reaching 30.6% as of March 20, up 11 percentage points from March 13, but down 7.6 percentage points year-on-year[2] - Oil prices continue to rise, with Brent crude closing at $112.2 per barrel, an increase of 8.8%[2] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of passenger cars declined by 21.3% year-on-year in the first half of March, following a 25.4% drop in February and a 13.9% decrease in January[2] - The construction resumption rate for major construction companies was 62% as of March 18, up 19.5 percentage points from the previous week but down 2.62 percentage points year-on-year[2] Trade and Exports - Port container throughput growth rate continued to decline, with a year-on-year increase of only 2.5% as of March 15, down from 16.5% last year[2] - The number of cargo ships from China to the U.S. saw a year-on-year decrease of 26.4% as of March 20, compared to a 3.1% increase in January-February[27] Commodity Prices - Gold prices fell to $4,576.3 per ounce, down 8.9%, while copper prices dropped to $12,128 per ton, down 5.6%[3] - The domestic coal price showed a slight rebound, with Shanxi power coal priced at 735 yuan per ton, up 0.8%[36] Financial Indicators - The yield curve steepened, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields reported at 1.2568%, 1.5625%, and 1.8299%, respectively[59] - The stock-bond Sharpe ratio difference remains high at 2.16, indicating better relative value for stocks compared to bonds[10]

Economic Indicators - The latest GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index as of March 21 is 5.3%, a slight increase from the previous value of 5.2%[9] - The industrial prosperity index is at 8.2%, up from 8.1%, while the service sector index rose to 3.2% from 3.0%[10] Production Sector - The service sector shows stable progress, with real estate transactions improving significantly, while metro passenger volume in 11 cities has decreased compared to last year[2] - The automotive steel tire operating rate continues to rise, nearing levels from the past two years, indicating a stable industrial sector[11] Demand Insights - Domestic consumption growth is projected at 3.5%, slightly up from 3.4%, influenced by fluctuations in oil prices[22] - The construction sector is recovering slowly post-holiday, with a funding availability rate of 50.7%, up 7.9 percentage points from the previous week[32] Real Estate Market - New housing sales in 30 major cities reached 166.49 million square meters, a 0.47% increase week-on-week, but a 17% decrease year-on-year[45] - Land transaction volume decreased by 342 million square meters compared to the previous week, reflecting a 5.11% year-on-year decline[45] Export Performance - Container throughput increased to 659,800 TEUs, up from 603,800 TEUs the previous week, with a year-to-date growth of 10.97%[51] - Global energy pressures are expected to positively impact China's export share, with ongoing strong external demand[2]