11月25日，上期所石油沥青厂库期货仓单2200吨，环比上个交易日减少23220吨；石油沥青仓库期货仓 单4690吨，环比上个交易日持平。 一、行情回顾 昨日，沥青期货2601主力合约震荡上涨，涨幅为1.19%，收盘价为3068元/吨。 二、基本面汇总 三、机构观点 光大期货：当前现货仍然对于盘面有一定压力，炼厂仍在大量释放低价合同。从社库来看，比往年同期 高出15%左右，叠加下游需求继续减弱，12月地炼排产降幅相对较低，预计供需继续呈现宽松格局。从 盘面来看，近期沥青价格在3000元/吨左右表现相对稳定，相对其他油品来看跟跌并不明显，短期对盘 面仍以低位震荡的观点对待。 国投安信期货：11月以来周度出货量处于近四年同期低位。最新商业库存去化继续放缓，且社会库存在 10月底出现同比偏高的拐点后同比幅度呈扩大趋势。近期山东现货稳中有升给予盘面提振。后续需求将 遵循季节性走弱规律，中长期基本面对BU存在利空压制。 现货方面，11月25日，国内沥青市场均价为3336元/吨，较上一日下跌1元/吨，跌幅0.03%。 截至11月25日，沥青综合利润为-470元/吨，环比下降50.86元/吨。 ...

上市企业：国创高新（002377）,宝利国际（300135）,森远股份（300210）,路畅科技（002813）,龙洲股 份（002682）,国联水产（300094）,宁波富邦（600768）,滨化股份（601678）,岳阳兴长（000819）,恒 逸石化（000703） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国石油沥青产品行业市场运行态势及未来发展潜力报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年9月中国石油沥青产量为361万吨，同比增长26.1%；2025年1-9月中国 石油沥青累计产量为2787.6万吨，累计增长11.4%。 2020-2025年1-9月中国石油沥青产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-11-26 原油端延续弱势，局部现货下跌 市场分析 1、11月25日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3068元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨36元/吨，涨幅 1.19%；持仓153792手，环比下跌7249手，成交160056手，环比减少66769手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2990—3470元/吨；华南，3050—3210元/吨； 华东，3200—3400元/吨。 近期原油价格走势偏弱，沥青成本端支撑不足，但在自身绝对价格跌至低位后，市场底部信号已开始出现。现货 方面，昨日西北、山东、华南以及川渝地区沥青现货价格出现下跌，华北地区沥青现货价格小幅反弹，其余地区 沥青现货价格大体企稳。部分主营炼厂下调沥青结算价格，带动区域沥青现货价格下跌。从基本面来看，当前供 需两弱格局延续，虽然终端需求逐步步入淡季，但在炼厂开工率和产量出现明显下滑态势，多家炼厂转产渣油， 沥青装置开工率降至绝对低位，北方出现提货紧张的状况。不过目前冬储需求还没有明确释放的迹象，市场情绪 相对平淡，反弹动力仍不足。整体来看，沥青市场下行压力已有所缓解， ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-11-25 成本端弱势运行，市场震荡筑底 市场分析 1、11月24日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3060元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨25元/吨，涨幅 0.82%；持仓161041手，环比下跌4997手，成交226825手，环比上涨6569手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，3000—3520元/吨；华南，3060—3210元/吨； 华东，3200—3400元/吨。 原油端震荡下跌，沥青成本端支撑偏弱，但在价格跌至低位后，市场底部信号开始出现。现货方面，昨日西北、 华东以及川渝地区沥青现货价格相对稳定，其余地区沥青现货价格均出现不同幅度下跌。具体来看，在炼厂开工 率和产量出现明显下滑态势，多家炼厂转产渣油，沥青装置开工率降至绝对低位，北方出现提货紧张的状况。不 过目前冬储需求还没有明确释放的迹象，市场情绪相对平淡，反弹动力仍不足。整体来看，沥青市场下行压力已 有所缓解，但底部反弹仍需要更多的刺激因素。 策略 单边：中性，等待底部信号夯实 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-11-24 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《从资管信托新规，看银行理财变局 ——机构行为专题二 20251120》 - 2025.11.21 ——高频数据跟踪 20251122 固收周报 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产端热度持续回落，高炉、沥青、 PX、PTA、全钢胎、半钢胎开工率均下降，其中沥青、PTA、全钢胎和 半钢胎降幅较大。第二，商品房成交面积边际回升，整体低于近年来 同期水平；土地供应面积延续季节性上行趋势，月底预期将迎来供地 高峰。第三，物价整体回落，原油、焦煤、铜、铝、锌以及重点监测 的猪肉、鸡蛋、蔬菜、水果四类农产品价格均下降。第四，航运价格 方面，SCFI 连续三周回落，BDI 大幅上行。短期重点关注消费与投资 端增量政策落地及房地产市场恢复情况。 生产：热度持续下降，沥青、PTA、轮胎开工率降幅较大 11 月 ...

宏 2025 年 11 月 24 日 中国宏观周报（2025 年 11 月第 3 周） 农产品批发价季节性回落 证券分析师 平安观点： 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 从高频数据观察，本周部分行业生产步入淡季，边际有所调整；需求端存在韧 性，电影票房及线下出行增速提升，新房成交边际企稳，邮政快递揽收恢复。 此外，本周农产品批发价格 200 指数环比由升转降，符合季节性表现。 1. 工业：生产季节性调整。1）原材料方面，本周钢铁建材和板材产量和表观需 求回升，部分化工品开工率提升；浮法玻璃开工率、石油沥青开工率、水泥熟 料产能利用率回落。2）中下游方面，本周纺织聚酯开工率回升，织造业开工 率季节性走弱；汽车全钢胎开工率、半钢胎开工率小幅回落。 2. 地产：新房成交边际企稳。1）销售方面，本周（截至 11 月 21 日）30 大中城 市新房销售面积同比-20.8%，增速较上周提升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward movements in various sectors, including real estate, consumer goods, and infrastructure, while also addressing the implications for investment opportunities and risks. Group 1: Economic Activity - The WEI index has shown a low recovery, reaching 5.43% as of November 16, 2025, up from 4.83% the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in economic activity [2][9] - Since the end of September 2025, the WEI index has generally declined, primarily driven by decreases in infrastructure, domestic demand, and industrial production [9][10] Group 2: Demand Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars have continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 14% as of November 16, 2025, compared to a growth of 5.8% in October [3][15] - In the real estate sector, the decline in residential sales has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of 21% in the third week of November across 67 cities [3][13] Group 3: Production Insights - Infrastructure data shows a continued decline, with cement shipment rates at 33.4% in the second week of November, unchanged from the previous week but down from 36.4% year-on-year [3][17] - The operating rate of asphalt plants has also decreased to 25%, down 4.2 percentage points from the previous week and 7.7 percentage points from the same week last year [3][17] Group 4: Trade and Export - Container throughput at Chinese ports has marginally declined, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.4% as of November 16, 2025 [3][27] - The number of vessels departing from major ports has shown a slight rebound but remains lower year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in trade [3][28] Group 5: Price Movements - Domestic and international commodity prices have generally decreased, with the South China index down 1.8% and the RJ/CRB commodity price index down 2.2% [3][42] - Agricultural product prices have also fallen, with pork prices down 0.8% and vegetable prices down 0.7% [3][45] Group 6: Interest Rates and Debt - The issuance of new local government bonds has accelerated, with 224 billion yuan issued in the week of November 24, 2025, including 215.3 billion yuan in special bonds [3][49] - The yields on government bonds have remained stable, with the one-year, five-year, and ten-year yields reported at 1.4008%, 1.5907%, and 1.8166%, respectively [3][64]

Report Information - Report Date: November 22, 2025 [1] - Report Title: High - frequency Economic Weekly Report (2025.11.16 - 2025.11.22) [2] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Yi Qiang, Wang Zheyi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The economic situation shows mixed trends. Industrial production is weak, while personnel flow continues to rise, and freight prices increase slightly. Consumption and some segments of the real - estate market show different trends, and export - related indicators also have their own characteristics. [3] Summary by Catalog 1. Big - class Assets - This week, bond indices generally rose, with the ChinaBond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank bond index rising the most by 0.7%. Stock indices and commodities generally fell, with the ChiNext Index falling the most by 6.15%, and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index dropping by 4.07%. Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest decline of 1.19%, while the US dollar appreciated by 0.14% against the RMB. [3] 2. Industrial Production - Production performance is weak. From the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27%, the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate dropped by 4.20 pcts to 24.80%, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62 pcts to 82.17%, while the crude steel output increased by 6.00%. In the real - estate chain, the rebar operating rate rose by 1.31 pcts to 43.29%, the float glass operating rate decreased by 0.34 pcts to 74.96%, and the mill operating rate dropped by 0.39 pcts to 33.29%. In the consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operating rate increased by 0.10 pcts to 91.33%, the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.89 pcts to 74.29%, and the methanol operating rate dropped by 0.17 pcts to 83.77%. In the automotive chain, the automotive semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 2.61 pcts to 71.07%, and the automotive full - steel tire operating rate decreased by 3.19 pcts to 61.31%. [3] 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow continued to rise, and freight prices increased slightly. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 6.45% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations increased by 1.51%, and the 7DMA of international flight operations increased by 0.84%. Beijing's subway passenger volume decreased, while those of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou increased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index increased by 0.02% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period last year. [3] 4. Consumption - Automobile sales growth declined year - on - year, and price performance decreased. The previous period's automobile wholesale decreased by 5.00% year - on - year, and retail sales decreased by 9.00% year - on - year. Both the 4WMA of wholesale and retail year - on - year growth rates declined. The weekly movie box office decreased by 22%, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 22%. Agricultural product prices decreased, with pork prices dropping by 0.83% week - on - week and vegetable prices falling by 6.08% week - on - week. [3] 5. Investment - Construction performance was good, and the commercial housing market had a seasonal uptick. The weekly cement inventory ratio increased by 0.1 pcts, the cement price index increased by 0.43%, and the cement shipping rate remained the same as last week. The rebar inventory decreased by 3.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 1.3 pcts, and the rebar apparent demand increased by 6.7% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction was good. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 24.2% week - on - week. By city - tier, the transaction area in first - tier cities decreased, while those in second - and third - tier cities increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities decreased by 0.1%, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.2% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land premium rate decreased week - on - week. [3] 6. Export - Port throughput decreased, and most shipping indices increased. The weekly port cargo throughput decreased by 1.1%, and the container throughput decreased by 5.4%. The BDI index increased by 7.06% week - on - week, the domestic SCFI index decreased by 3.98%, and the CCFI index increased by 2.63%. [3]

债 券 周 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 联系人 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 22 日 地产季节性回升，港口吞吐量下行 ——高频经济周报（2025.11.16-2025.11.22） 风险提示：国内政策超预期，海外环境变化超预期 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 研 究 相关研究 - 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com ⚫ 工业生产：生产表现较弱。从上游来看，本期全国电厂样本区域用煤量周度环比下行 1.27%，石油沥青装置开工率周度环比下行 4.20pcts 至 24.80%，高炉开工率周度环比下 行 0.62cts 至 82.17%，粗钢产量周度环比上行 6.00%。从地产链来看，螺纹钢开工率周 度环比上行 1.31pcts 至 4 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-11-21 现货整体持稳，市场氛围平淡 市场分析 1、11月20日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3058元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨10元/吨，涨幅 0.33%；持仓191962手，环比下跌2515手，成交317665手，环比上涨135611手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3650元/吨；山东，3030—3520元/吨；华南，3090—3210元/吨； 华东，3200—3400元/吨。 沥青盘面维持低位震荡态势，原油成本端表现偏弱，自身基本面缺乏利好刺激，虽有一定底部信号但反弹动力不 足。现货方面，昨日华北地区沥青现货价格小幅下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格相对稳定。虽然个别地区沥青现货 资源偏紧，但沥青终端需求整体表现平淡，市场资源消耗缓慢，参与方抄底意愿仍有限，交投氛围欠佳，暂无明 确利好信号刺激。 策略 单边：中性，等待市场底部夯实 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图 ...