石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-11 需求表现一般，关注季节性改善 市场分析 1、7月10日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3629元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨10元/吨，涨幅 0.28%；持仓226788手，环比上涨3805手，成交125635手，环比下降31302手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3630—4070元/吨；华南，3600—3700元/吨； 华东，3700—3850元/吨。 昨日山东以及华北市场沥青现货价格小幅下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。本周原油价格走势偏强，对沥 青现货及盘面情绪形成一定支撑，但原油中期存在平衡表转松的预期，目前上行空间和驱动相对有限。就沥青自 身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位，市场矛盾相对不突出。当前终端需求表现仍缺乏亮点， 下游多以按需采购为主，关注降雨天气减少后的季节性消费改善的情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.07.10） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：77300-79000 中期观点：60000-90000 参考策略：震荡操作思路 核心逻辑： 1、宏观方面，特朗普拟对美国铜进口征收50%关税。 2、供给方面，智利6月份铜出口额为46.7亿美元，较去年同期增长17.5%。据SMM了 解，印尼内政部长 Tito Karnavian表示，他已要求该国矿业部放宽对安曼国际矿业公司 (AmmanMineral International)的铜精矿出口禁令，理由是这对当地经济造成了影 响。Tito 称，安曼国际矿业公司所在的Nusa Tenggara Barat省的第一季度经济同比萎缩 1.47%，受到该公司无法出口其精矿产的影响，而其冶炼厂正在增加产能。印尼已禁止出口 铜精矿和其他原料矿物，以鼓励国内的金属加工。从2023年中期开始，对一些矿物实行出 口禁令，但安曼被允许出口，直至2024年12月，届时预计将启用一家新治炼厂 3、需求方面，2025年5月，中国家用空调出口量为969.5万台，同比微增0.1%。5月 出口量额维持微幅增长，一方面是因为去年的高 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Baoli International's stock has seen a recent increase, but its price-to-earnings (PE) ratio remains significantly higher than the industry average, indicating potential overvaluation [1] - As of July 10, Baoli International's closing price was 4.11 yuan, with a PE ratio of 179.28, which is the lowest in 11 days, and a total market capitalization of 3.788 billion yuan [1] - The average PE ratio for the chemical products industry is 47.71, with a median of 41.07, positioning Baoli International at the 156th rank within the industry [1] Group 2 - In terms of capital flow, Baoli International experienced a net inflow of 12.4248 million yuan on July 10, with a total inflow of 12.8185 million yuan over the past five days [1] - The main business of Jiangsu Baoli International Investment Co., Ltd. includes the production and sales of various specialized asphalt products, as well as helicopter and aviation material sales, and BT project investment [1] - The latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 shows that the company achieved an operating income of 230 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.82%, and a net profit of 3.239 million yuan, down 26.61%, with a sales gross margin of 1.83% [1]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-10 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 刚性需求偏弱，市场情绪较谨慎 市场分析 1、7月9日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3623元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨31元/吨，涨幅 0.86%；持仓218152手，环比上涨476手，成交156937手，环比上涨21483手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3640—4070元/吨；华南，3600—3700元/吨； 华东，3700—3850元/吨。 昨日华北和华南市场沥青现货价格出现下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。本周原油价格走势偏强，对沥青 现货及盘面情绪形成一定提振，但目前上行空间和驱动相对有限。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延 续，库存维持低位，市场矛盾相对不突出。当前整体需求表现仍缺乏亮点，下游多以按需采购为主，市场观望情 绪浓厚。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 | 图1：山东重交沥青现货价格 | 单位：元/吨 3 | | --- | --- | | 图2：华东重交沥青现 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-08 需求缺乏亮点，盘面震荡运行 市场分析 1、7月7日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3566元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌22元/吨，跌幅 0.61%；持仓217676手，环比下跌2381手，成交127222手，环比下降3466手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3640—4070元/吨；华南，3610—3750元/吨； 华东，3650—3850元/吨。 昨日华北、山东以及华南市场沥青现货价格有所下跌，华东地区沥青现货价格涨幅较为明显，其余地区沥青现货 价格大体企稳，盘面则维持区间震荡。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位，市场矛 盾有限。尽管月初个别市场挺价心态偏强，但整体需求表现缺乏亮点，下游多以按需采购为主，市场观望情绪浓 厚。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图1：山东重交沥青现货价格 | 单位：元 ...

一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.70 | 49.50 | 49.50 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.50 | 50.30 | 50.50 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 22870.00 11599.00 | 20623.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M1(货币):同比 | % | 2.30 | 1.50 | -0.8 ...

2025 年 07 月 08 日 工业生产趋缓，地产成交趋弱 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（联系人） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070017 供需：工业生产趋缓，消费需求趋稳 1.建筑开工：开工率季节性位置回落。最近两周（6 月 22 日至 7 月 5 日），石油沥 青装置开工率、水泥发运率季节性位置重新回落至历史中低位，磨机运转率进一 步下行至历史低位。基建、房建项目水泥出库量保持历史同期低位，资金方面， 建筑工地资金到位率同比低于 2024 年同期。 2.工业生产端，部分化工与汽车钢胎产业开工率回落。最近两周，工业开工整体 景气度仍处于历史中高位，但部分化工与汽车钢胎开工率出现回落。化工链中聚 酯切片开工率回落至历史低位，汽车半钢胎开工率回落至历史中位，焦化企业开 工率处于历史最低位。 3.需求端，建筑需求偏弱，汽车、家电需求波动运行。最近两周，建筑需求弱于 历史同期，螺纹钢、线材、建材表观需求低于历史同期。汽车销售同比波动运行， 中国轻纺城成交量回升至历史中位，义乌小 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index remained stable, with an increase in the year - on - year growth rate. The bull - bear signal for interest - rate bonds remained unchanged [1][9]. - Different sectors showed various trends, including a decline in the opening rates of major production varieties, an increase in the land transaction premium rate in real - estate sales, a continuous increase in the asphalt production opening rate in infrastructure investment, a decline in the export container freight rate index, a continuous recovery in passenger car retail and wholesale in consumption, a continuous decline in the agricultural product wholesale price index for CPI, an increase in copper and aluminum prices for PPI, a continuous recovery in passenger transport and flights in transportation, a continuous increase in soda ash inventory, a decrease in local government bond net financing and an increase in credit bond net financing in financing [13][25][33][37][52][60][62][74][83][92]. Summary by Directory Total Index - The Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index was 126.5 points (previous value: 126.4 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.2 points (previous value: 5.1 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. The bull - bear signal for interest - rate bonds remained unchanged, with a signal factor of 4.8% (previous value: 4.8%) [1][9]. Production - The industrial production high - frequency index was 125.8 (previous value: 125.7), with a year - on - year increase of 4.9 points (previous value: 4.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. The opening rates of major production varieties such as electric furnaces, polyester, and steel tires decreased [1][9][13]. Real - Estate Sales - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index was 44.1 (previous value: 44.2), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.4 points (previous value: 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remained unchanged. The land transaction premium rate in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased to 7.8% (previous value: 7.1%) [1][9][25]. Infrastructure Investment - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index was 119.0 (previous value: 118.8), with a year - on - year increase of 3.0 points (previous value: 2.6 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. The opening rate of the petroleum asphalt device continued to rise to 31.7% (previous value: 31.5%) [1][9][35]. Export - The export high - frequency index was 144.1 (previous value: 144.1), with a year - on - year increase of 4.7 points (previous value: 5.1 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrowed. The CCFI index and RJ/CRB index decreased [1][9][39]. Consumption - The consumption high - frequency index was 119.5 (previous value: 119.4), with a year - on - year increase of 1.9 points (previous value: 1.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. Passenger car retail and wholesale and daily average movie box office continued to recover [1][9][52]. CPI - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast was 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%). The agricultural product wholesale price index continued to decline, with changes in the average wholesale prices of pork, vegetables, fruits, and white - striped chickens [1][9][60]. PPI - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast was 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%). Copper and aluminum prices increased, while the prices of动力煤 and Brent crude oil remained relatively stable [1][9][62]. Transportation - The transportation high - frequency index was 128.6 (previous value: 128.4), with a year - on - year increase of 8.5 points (previous value: 8.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. Passenger transport and flights continued to recover [2][10][74]. Inventory - The inventory high - frequency index was 160.6 (previous value: 160.5), with a year - on - year increase of 9.6 points (previous value: 9.6 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. Soda ash inventory continued to increase [2][10][83]. Financing - The financing high - frequency index was 230.9 (previous value: 230.3), with a year - on - year increase of 29.4 points (previous value: 29.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. Local government bond net financing decreased, and credit bond net financing increased [2][10][92].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) is advancing the listing of options contracts for fuel oil, asphalt, and pulp, marking a significant step in expanding its options business and achieving comprehensive coverage of mature futures products [1][2]. Group 1: Market Development - The SHFE has launched 14 options since the introduction of the first industrial product option, copper, in September 2018, covering various sectors including non-ferrous metals, precious metals, and energy chemicals [1][2]. - The trading volume of the SHFE options market has doubled annually from 2018 to 2024, indicating strong market growth and support from related industries [1]. Group 2: Risk Management - The introduction of options for fuel oil, asphalt, and pulp is aimed at providing more effective risk management tools for upstream and downstream enterprises, addressing the increasing demand for refined risk management amid significant international commodity price fluctuations [2]. - The SHFE's initiatives, such as the "Strong Source Assisting Enterprises" campaign, have successfully encouraged industries to utilize futures and options for risk management, helping companies stabilize profits and reduce operational losses [1][2]. Group 3: Contract Specifications - The fuel oil options contract is based on the fuel oil futures contract, with a trading unit of 1 lot and a minimum price fluctuation of 0.5 yuan/ton. The exercise price ranges are defined based on the previous trading day's settlement price [3]. - The asphalt options contract follows similar specifications to the fuel oil options, with the same trading unit and minimum price fluctuation [4]. - The pulp options contract has a trading unit of 1 lot and a minimum price fluctuation of 1 yuan/ton, with exercise price ranges also defined based on the previous trading day's settlement price [5]. Group 4: Future Plans - The SHFE plans to continue the collaborative development of futures and options, aiming to enhance its service capabilities for the real economy and increase internationalization by attracting domestic enterprises and foreign investors to utilize these risk management tools [5].

宏观量化经济指数周报 20250706 政府债融资多增或推升 6 月社融增速 2025 年 07 月 06 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《基于 43 个国家的比较：我国服务消 费比重是否偏低？》 2025-07-04 《内需延续结构分化，外需保持总量 平稳》 2025-06-30 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 周度 ECI 指数：从周度数据来看，截至 2025 年 7 月 6 日，本周 ECI 供 给指数为 50.10%，较上周回落 0.02 个百分点；ECI 需求指数为 49.93%， 较上周回落 0.01 个百分点。从分项来看，ECI 投资指数为 49.98%，较 上周回升 0.01 个百分点；ECI ...