石油沥青

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石油沥青日报:成本端企稳反弹,沥青自身市场驱动有限-20250826
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 05:47
石油沥青日报 | 2025-08-26 成本端企稳反弹,沥青自身市场驱动有限 市场分析 1、8月25日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情:主力BU2510合约下午收盘价3512元/吨,较昨日结算价上涨33元/吨,涨幅 0.95%;持仓191301手,环比下降17115手,成交169612手,环比上涨30160手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价:东北,3856—4086元/吨;山东,3450—3800元/吨;华南,3480—3500元/吨; 华东,3560—3750元/吨。 昨日华北市场价格出现上涨,山东市场价格有所下跌,其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。近日原油价格出现企稳 反弹迹象,BU盘面跟随上涨,市场下方支撑开始显现。就沥青自身基本面而言,当前供需两弱格局大体延续,虽 然供应端增长受限,在天气与资金因素影响下刚需同样改善乏力,市场交投氛围一般,投机需求偏弱。总体来看, 沥青市场内生性的上行驱动不足。如果油价能延续反弹态势,盘面将得到一定提振,但持续性存疑。 策略 单边:震荡 跨期:无 跨品种:无 期现:无 期权:无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期 ...
【图】2025年1-4月广西壮族自治区石油沥青产量数据分析
Chan Ye Diao Yan Wang· 2025-08-26 00:35
单独看2025年4月份,广西壮族自治区规模以上工业企业石油沥青产量达到了2.3万吨,与2024年同期的 数据相比,4月份的产量下降了41.3%,增速较2024年同期低740.3个百分点,增速较同期全国低56.9个 百分点,约占同期全国规模以上企业石油沥青产量321.4万吨的比重为0.7%。 据国家统计局数据,在2025年的前4个月,广西壮族自治区规模以上工业企业石油沥青产量累计达到了 2.3万吨,与2024年同期的数据相比,下降了82.6%,增速较2024年同期低876.3个百分点,增速较同期 全国低88.5个百分点,约占同期全国规模以上企业石油沥青产量1145.6万吨的比重为0.2%。 图表:广西壮族自治区石油沥青产量分月(累计值)统计 图表:广西壮族自治区石油沥青产量分月(当月值)统计 2025年4月石油沥青产量分析: 摘要:【图】2025年1-4月广西壮族自治区石油沥青产量数据分析 2025年1-4月石油沥青产量分析: 注:主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位,即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动态 石油行业监测及发展趋势 化工未来发 ...
宏观量化经济指数周报20250824:货物吞吐量延续高位,8月出口仍有韧性-20250824
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-24 11:05
Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.09%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains flat at 49.89%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for August is at 50.08%, down 0.03 percentage points from July, and the demand index is at 49.89%, also down 0.03 percentage points from July[7] - The ECI export index is at 50.20%, down 0.03 percentage points from July, indicating a slight decline in export momentum[7] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The ELI index is at -0.70%, up 0.21 percentage points from last week, indicating continued expansion of liquidity in August[11] - The central bank plans to conduct a 600 billion CNY MLF operation on August 25, with a net liquidity injection of 3,000 billion CNY for the month, doubling the net injection from July[13] - Total mid-term and short-term liquidity net injection for August is 6,000 billion CNY, which is twice the net injection scale of July[13] Industrial and Consumer Trends - Industrial production shows marginal recovery, with the operating rate for automotive tires increasing by 1.67 percentage points for full steel tires and 1.06 percentage points for semi-steel tires[14] - Passenger vehicle retail sales for the week ending August 17 averaged 59,068 units per day, a year-on-year increase of 3,867 units, with a 2.0% increase compared to the same period last year[20] - The real estate market shows a 15.1% year-on-year decline in sales area for 30 major cities, although the decline has narrowed compared to July[7] Export Performance - High-frequency data indicates that cargo throughput at monitored ports remains high, suggesting strong resilience in exports for August[7] - South Korea's export growth for the first 20 days of August is at 7.60%, indicating a recovery compared to July[31] Inflation and Price Trends - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.12 CNY/kg, down 0.08 CNY/kg from last week, which may affect the CPI for August[37] - Brent crude oil futures settled at 66.93 USD/barrel, up 0.71 USD/barrel from the previous week, while COMEX gold futures settled at 3,385.06 USD/ounce, down 10.50 USD/ounce[37]
盘面窄幅波动,弱需求压制现货
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 05:26
石油沥青日报 | 2025-08-22 盘面窄幅波动,弱需求压制现货 市场分析 1、8月21日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情:主力BU2510合约下午收盘价3465元/吨,较昨日结算价上涨13元/吨,涨幅 0.38%;持仓211461手,环比下降6077手,成交123366手,环比下降22655手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价:东北,3856—4086元/吨;山东,3380—3870元/吨;华南,3460—3530元/吨; 华东,3560—3750元/吨。 昨日西北以及东北市场价格大体企稳,其余地区沥青现货价格均出现不同幅度下跌。近期油价走势偏弱,叠加沥 青自身基本面一般,市场震荡走弱。昨日油价出现小幅反弹,BU盘面有所企稳,波动幅度仍较窄。目前来看沥青 供需两弱格局大体延续,在天气与资金因素影响下刚需改善乏力,投机需求同样偏弱,社会库存去化幅度弱于季 节性,整体供应较为充裕,现货端情绪受到压制。由于沥青自身基本面支撑乏力,未来如果油价持续下跌,则沥 青市场价格也将跟随进一步走弱,短期则需要关注俄乌和谈进展给油市情绪带来的额外扰动。 策略 单边:震荡偏弱 跨期:无 跨品种:无 期现:无 期权:无 风险 原油价格大 ...
石油沥青日报:现货区域流通量增加,行情延续偏弱震荡-20250821
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:36
石油沥青日报 | 2025-08-21 现货区域流通量增加,行情延续偏弱震荡 市场分析 1、8月20日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情:主力BU2510合约下午收盘价3454元/吨,较昨日结算价下跌4元/吨,跌幅 0.01%;持仓217538手,环比下降2214手,成交146021手,环比上涨4045手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价:东北,3856—4086元/吨;山东,3450—3870元/吨;华南,3480—3530元/吨; 华东,3580—3750元/吨。 昨日华北以及华南市场价格小幅下跌,其余地区暂时以持稳为主。近期油价走势偏弱,叠加沥青自身基本面一般, 市场情绪谨慎。目前来看供需两弱格局大体延续,在天气与资金因素影响下刚需改善乏力,投机需求同样偏弱, 社会库存去化幅度弱于季节性,整体供应较为充裕。由于沥青自身基本面支撑乏力,未来如果油价持续下跌,则 沥青市场价格也将跟随进一步走弱,短期则需要关注俄乌和谈进展给油市情绪带来的额外扰动。 策略 单边:震荡偏弱 跨期:无 跨品种:无 期现:无 期权:无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研 ...
2025年1-6月中国石油沥青产量为1796.7万吨 累计增长7.7%
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-08-21 03:25
上市企业:国创高新(002377),宝利国际(300135),森远股份(300210),路畅科技(002813),龙洲股 份(002682),国联水产(300094),宁波富邦(600768),滨化股份(601678),岳阳兴长(000819),恒 逸石化(000703) 知前沿,问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构,十数年持续深耕产业研究领域,提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力,专注于提供完善的产业解决方案,为您的投资决策赋能。 数据来源:国家统计局,智研咨询整理 相关报告:智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国石油沥青产品行业市场运行态势及未来发展潜力报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示:2025年6月中国石油沥青产量为315万吨,同比增长11.1%;2025年1-6月中国 石油沥青累计产量为1796.7万吨,累计增长7.7%。 ...
石油沥青日报:需求维持弱势,市场情绪承压-20250820
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:18
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The demand in the asphalt market remains weak, and market sentiment is under pressure. The current supply - demand pattern is generally weak, with limited improvement in rigid demand due to weather and capital factors, and speculative demand is also weak. The social inventory depletion is weaker than the seasonal level. If oil prices continue to fall, the asphalt market price will further decline, and in the short term, the impact of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks on the oil market sentiment needs attention [1]. - The strategy for asphalt trading is as follows: the outlook for single - side trading is oscillatory, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Group 3: Market Analysis Summary - On August 19th, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2510 in the afternoon session was 3453 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton or 0.6% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 219,752 lots, a decrease of 5,528 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 141,976 lots, a decrease of 33,511 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt according to Zhuochuang Information are: 3,856 - 4,086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,450 - 3,870 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,490 - 3,530 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,580 - 3,750 yuan/ton in East China. The price in North China increased slightly yesterday, while the spot prices in Shandong and East China decreased, and the prices in other regions remained stable for the time being [1]. Group 4: Strategy Summary - Single - side trading: The outlook is oscillatory [2]. - Inter - period trading: No strategy [2]. - Inter - variety trading: No strategy [2]. - Spot - futures trading: No strategy [2]. - Options trading: No strategy [2]. Group 5: Chart Information Summary - There are multiple charts showing various data related to asphalt, including spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and open interest of futures, domestic weekly asphalt production, production in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventory in refineries and social inventories [3] [10] [17] [20] [22] [27] [29] [35] [36] [37] [38].
【图】2025年4月云南省石油沥青产量数据
Chan Ye Diao Yan Wang· 2025-08-19 06:05
Core Viewpoint - In April 2025, the production of petroleum asphalt in Yunnan Province experienced a significant decline, indicating a downturn in the industry compared to previous years [1]. Group 1: April 2025 Production Data - The petroleum asphalt production in Yunnan Province for April 2025 was 40,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 33.1% [1]. - The growth rate for April 2025 was 91.0 percentage points lower than the same month in the previous year [1]. - Yunnan's production accounted for 1.2% of the national total production of 3,214,000 tons for the same period [1]. Group 2: January to April 2025 Production Data - From January to April 2025, the total petroleum asphalt production in Yunnan Province was 140,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 29.6% [1]. - The growth rate for this four-month period was 87.6 percentage points lower than the same period in the previous year [1]. - Yunnan's production during this period also represented 1.2% of the national total production of 1,145,600 tons [1].
石油沥青日报:刚需改善有限,现货局部下跌-20250819
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 05:04
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand. The improvement of rigid demand is still weak under the influence of weather and funds, and speculative demand is also weak. The destocking rate of social inventory is weaker than the seasonal average. The current market pressure is limited, but if oil prices continue to fall, asphalt prices will weaken further. The meeting between the US and Russian presidents is worth watching, as changes in US sanctions policies may bring additional volatility risks to the crude oil and asphalt markets [2]. Group 3: Market Analysis - On August 18, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2510 in the afternoon was 3,473 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 225,280 lots, a decrease of 1,549 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 175,487 lots, an increase of 29,255 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,856 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong, 3,500 - 3,870 yuan/ton; South China, 3,490 - 3,530 yuan/ton; East China, 3,600 - 3,750 yuan/ton [1]. - The asphalt spot prices in the northwest market were relatively stable yesterday, while those in other regions declined to varying degrees. Due to the recent weak oil price trend and poor asphalt demand, market sentiment is cautious [2]. Group 4: Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery spread: None - Inter - commodity spread: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [3] Group 5: Figures - The report includes figures on spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, domestic and regional asphalt production, domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproof, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt refinery and social inventories [4].
宏观经济专题:建筑需求同比下行速度放缓
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-19 01:47
Supply and Demand - Construction starts remain at seasonal low levels, with asphalt plant operating rates at 32.9%, down 12.9% year-on-year, and cement dispatch rates at 40.1%, down 4.4% year-on-year[14] - Industrial production shows a mixed picture, with PX operating rates at 82.4%, down 7.7% year-on-year, while automotive steel tire operating rates have decreased[24] - Some construction demand has turned positive year-on-year, with rebar apparent demand showing a positive change, primarily due to a low base in 2024[29] Prices - International commodity prices are fluctuating, with crude oil prices declining and gold prices showing a slight increase[39] - Domestic industrial prices are generally weak, with the Nanhua Composite Index declining, while coal prices have continued to rise[40] - Agricultural product prices have shown an upward trend, while pork prices have been declining[56] Real Estate - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, with a 18% decrease in average transaction area in 30 major cities compared to the previous two weeks, and a year-on-year decline of 29% compared to 2023[58] - Second-hand housing transactions are also weak, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year changes of -8%, +4%, and +2% respectively[62] Exports - Exports from August 1 to 17 are estimated to have increased by approximately 7% to 9% year-on-year, with models indicating a 7% increase and container ship loading data suggesting a 9% increase[65] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in funding rates, with the R007 at 1.45% and DR007 at 1.51% as of August 1[71] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 21,022 billion yuan through reverse repos in recent weeks[72] Risk Warning - There are risks associated with unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy strength[76]