Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt futures price is expected to show a weak and volatile trend due to high supply, limited demand, and falling crude oil prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - This week, the asphalt production rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 35.8% week-on-week, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral to low level in recent years. In October, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.682 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons month-on-month, a decrease of 0.1%, and an increase of 0.35 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 15.0% [1] - This week, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt were stable. The road asphalt operation rate remained flat at 29.0% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas [1] - After the National Day holiday this week, the national asphalt shipment volume increased by 14.48% week-on-week to 253,300 tons, at a neutral to low level. The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to rise week-on-week but remained at the lowest level in recent years [1] - Some refineries such as Wudi Xinyue have maintenance plans, and asphalt production will decrease but still remain at a high level. Projects in many northern regions are rushing to work, but there is obvious cooling in some areas, increased rainfall in the south, and funding constraints, making the market cautious and affecting asphalt demand [1] - Recently, the supply and demand pressure of crude oil remains high, the Sino-US trade friction has escalated, the geopolitical situation has eased, and crude oil prices have continued to fall [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 0.82% to 3,135 yuan/ton, below the 5-day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,109 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3,168 yuan/ton, and an open interest increase of 16,499 to 153,523 lots [2] - The mainstream market price in Shandong region dropped to 3,400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 11 contract rose to 265 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, individual major refineries in Shandong and East China produced intermittently, and the asphalt production rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 35.8% week-on-week, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral to low level in recent years [4] - From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year-on-year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate slightly rebounded compared to January - July 2025 but remained negative. From January to August 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the actual completed fixed asset investment in the road transportation industry was -3.3%, continuing to decline from -2.0% in January - July 2025, still in a cumulative year-on-year negative growth situation. From January to August 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 2.0%, continuing to decline from 3.2% in January - July 2025 [4] - As of the week of October 17, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt were stable. The road asphalt operation rate remained flat at 29.0% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas [4] - From the perspective of social financing stock, from January to September 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.1 percentage point compared to January - August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but year-on-year it was 233.5 billion yuan less due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4] Inventory - As of the week of October 17, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.8 percentage points to 16.6% compared to the week of October 10, still at the lowest level in recent years [5]