国泰君安期货·能源化工 石油沥青周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 期货从业资格号：F3082452 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 基本面数据 03 市场回顾 期现 价差结构 需求 供应 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-08 04-20 05-03 05-15 05-27 06-08 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-26 08-07 08-19 08-31 09-12 09-24 10-13 10-25 11-06 11-18 11-30 12-12 12-24 手 持仓量 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: November 21, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019531) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided. Group 3: Core Views - Short - term, after a rapid price drop, the spot and futures are stabilizing near integer levels. The overall supply of asphalt has increased due to the resumption of production at some refineries this week. Demand has improved as prices declined, mainly consuming social inventory, with no significant end - of - peak - season performance. The inventory structure has improved, with a slight increase in refinery inventory and a decline in social inventory. The cost of crude oil has been fluctuating weakly recently, and the spot basis has been weakening. In the long - term, demand in the north will end as the temperature drops, while in the south, post - rainfall catch - up demand may boost consumption. The peak season of asphalt has no unexpected performance. Short - term, attention should be paid to winter storage, and the adjustment of refinery prices may be the valuation anchor for BU01. Due to geopolitical disturbances in crude oil, asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3]. Group 4: Asphalt Price and Risk Management Price Information - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.33% [2]. - On November 21, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3030 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3240 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 90 yuan/ton week - on - week), the North China spot price was 3020 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the South China spot price was 3150 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week) [2][6][9]. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, for a long spot position: - Short 25% of asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - Sell 20% of call options (bu2512C3500) at 30 - 40 yuan to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and hoping to purchase according to orders, for a short spot position: - Buy 50% of asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. - Sell 20% of put options (bu2512C3500) at 25 - 35 yuan to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. Group 5: Other Information - There are various seasonal charts including asphalt 12 - contract basis seasonality in different regions (Shandong, North China, Yangtze River Delta, Northeast), asphalt futures month - spread seasonality (03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12), domestic asphalt refinery inventory rate seasonality, domestic asphalt social inventory rate seasonality, and asphalt warehouse and refinery warehouse receipt quantity seasonality [10][11][13][15][17][18][20][22][23].

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月21日 【行情分析】 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落4.2个百分点至24.8%，较去年同期低了7.0个百分点，处于近 年同期最低水平。据隆众资讯数据，11月份国内沥青预计排产222.8万吨，环比减少45.4万吨，减幅 为16.9%，同比减少27.4万吨，减幅为11.0%。本周，沥青下游各行业开工率涨跌互现，其中道路沥青 开工环比持平于34%，受到资金和天气制约。本周，东北地区沥青产量增加，叠加降价刺激出货，其 出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加15.28%至24.6万吨，处于中性略偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货 比环比持平，处于近年来同期的最低位附近。俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制 裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外有消息称特朗普政府秘密与俄罗斯协调一项结束乌克兰 冲突的新框架，泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，原油价格下跌。下周山东胜星等炼厂降稳定生产 沥青，沥青开工率将有所上升。北方气温下降后，道路施工逐渐收尾，后续需求将进一步转弱，南 方项目增量有限，整体需求平淡。近期山东地区沥青基差维持在中性水平，现货价格基本稳定，市 场 ...

| 《八 国経期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年11月21日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | な☆☆ | F3066912 Z0016785 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | 李海群 中级分析师 | | | | F03107558 Z0021515 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价进一步回落,SC01合约日内跌1.67%。昨日鸟克兰方面宣布乌总统已正式收到美国提交的俄乌和平 计划草案、俄鸟地缘风险溢价受到压制。我们认为供给端收缩引发的油价周期性拐点尚未见到,油价因地缘因 素引发的反弹空间总体受限,行情仍以震荡偏弱为主。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 本周商品量下降但到港量增加，供应端存增量利空压制。丁烷脱氢装置盈利改善提振下游化工企业开工积极 性,且多地大幅降温带动燃烧端需求好转。 ...

沥青周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-11-21 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 04 后市研判 报告P摘AR要T 01 （1）俄乌停火谈判有望继续推进，地缘风险溢价回落。 （2）美国EIA当周原油库存去库。 （3）沥青裂解价差环比回落。 市场焦点 重点数据 （1）截止11月19日，国内沥青样本企业开工率24.8%，较上一统计周期下降4.2个百分点。 （2）截止11月21日，国内沥青周度产量44.1万吨，环比上周减少7.3万吨。 （3）截止11月21日，国内沥青样本企业厂库库存64.2万吨，环比上周减少0.5万吨。 （4）截止11月21日，国内沥青样本企业社会库存79.4万吨，环比上周减少3.1万吨。 主要观点 本周沥青盘面呈现窄幅震荡的走势，一方面，前期盘面大跌后存在反弹修复的动能，市场下跌动能较前期有所减 弱，另外一方面，沥青社会库存延续去库的态势，尽管需求进入淡季，但是盘面单边下行仍需更多需求端的负反馈。 后续来看，盘面缺少利多驱动，预计延续偏弱运行的态势，一方面，随着沥青下游步入淡季，供应过剩的压力 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: PR, BR rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Stainless steel, asphalt, short - term corn, M05 of soybean meal, PVC, PP, some petrochemical products [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Index, Treasury bonds, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, precious metals, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, iron ore, manganese silicon, silicon carbide, glass, pure alkali, coking coal, coke, cotton, pulp, logs, crude oil, fuel oil, short - term soybean oil, long - term tin [1] 2. Core Views - The current macro environment is in a relatively vacuum period. A - share lacks a clear upward trend, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences will be gradually digested during index fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces to push the index up [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward movement [1]. - The Fed's December interest - rate cut expectation has cooled down, affecting the prices of various commodities, but different commodities have different responses based on their own fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity and Bond Markets - **Index**: Short - term market differences will be digested during fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces for upward movement [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the rise [1] Commodity Markets - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation cooling affects prices. Copper price decline is limited; aluminum price fluctuates at a high level; zinc has support below; nickel price fluctuates downward; stainless steel needs to pay attention to production; tin is bullish in the long - term [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is affected by OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical factors, and trade policies; asphalt is bearish; PR is bullish; BR rubber may rebound; PTA production declines; ethylene glycol is affected by multiple factors; PP and PVC are bearish; LPG fundamentals are stable [1] - **Agricultural Products**: New energy vehicle demand is strong, but lithium carbonate has upward pressure; cotton market is in a state of "support but no driver"; corn, soybean meal, and other grains have different price trends; pulp and logs have limited upward space; livestock products such as pigs have over - capacity issues [1] - **Building Materials and Metals**: Rebar and iron ore are affected by supply and demand and macro factors; coking coal and coke are affected by steel prices and supply - demand relationships; glass and pure alkali have limited upward space [1] - **Fuel and Oil Products**: Crude oil price fluctuates; fuel oil follows crude oil; asphalt is bearish; PR is bullish; BR rubber may rebound [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 沥青 偏弱运行 宝城期货 陈栋 近期，沥青期货 2601 合约下探至 3000 元/吨整数关口附近。当前，基本面延续供需双弱态势，现货市 场交投清淡，期现基差持续走弱，旺季不旺格局凸显。 利润影响供给 四季度以来，受国际原油价格波动影响，沥青加工利润处于亏损状态。以山东地炼为例，沥青加工一 度亏损超过 600 元/吨。虽然近期沥青加工利润有所修复，但仍远低于正常水平。在低利润甚至亏损的背景 下，炼厂生产积极性受挫，主动通过检修或转产等方式降低沥青产出。据隆众资讯发布的数据，11 月 12 日当周，国内沥青加工理论利润均值为-593.2 元/吨，周度小幅减少 58.8 元/吨；中国 92 家沥青炼厂产能利 用率为 30.8%，周度下降 1.1 个百分点；沥青周产量为 51.4 万吨，环比下降 3.4%。 当前，国内沥青炼厂产能利用率处于近 5 年高位，沥青产量处于近 5 年中高位。在供应压力依然偏大 的背景下，进入 11 月，沥青现货价格延续跌势。截至 11 月 12 日，沥青现货均价为 3211 元/吨，环比下跌 120 元/吨，降幅为 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘消息扰动，油价下挫。短期扰动：消息泽连斯基同意与美国合作制定 | | 原油 | | 和平计划，并将在近期与特朗普会谈；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 季叠加 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，原油供 | | | | 给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地 | | | | 缘进展。策略：空单部分止盈。 | | | | 下游开工率下降，库存累库，液化气承压。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 震荡调整，大趋势仍向下；供需方面，下游化工开工率下降，商品量小幅 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 下降；库存端偏利空，港口与厂内库存累库。策略：轻仓试空。 | | | | 成本支撑转弱，10 月进口量持稳。国内开工季节性回升，近期进口资源集 | | L | | 中到港，国内外供给充足。下游开工率连续 5 周下滑，11 月下旬后棚膜旺 | | | 空头盘整 | 季逐步收尾，需求支部不足。油价中期仍存 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价收跌，其中 WTI 12 月合约收盘下跌 0.3 美元至 59.14 美 | | | | 元/桶，跌幅 0.5%。布伦特 1 月合约收盘下跌 0.13 美元/桶，至 | | | | 63.38 美元/桶，跌幅 0.2%。SC2512 以 456.7 元/桶收盘，下跌 1.7 | | | | 元/桶，跌幅 0.37%。宏观方面，由于政府停摆而推迟了许久发布 | | | | 的劳工统计局最新报告显示，8 月出现下降的非农就业人数当月 | | | | 增加了 11.9 万。与此同时，失业率上升至近四年来的最高水平。 | | | | 非农数据不及预期令市场承压。库存方面数据显示，11 月 20 日 | | | | 止当周，阿姆斯特丹-鹿特丹-安特卫普 ARA 枢纽的柴油库存下 | | | 原油 | 降近 5%。当周，欧洲 ARA 枢纽的柴油库存为 218 万吨，之前一 | 震荡 | | | 周为 228.5 万吨。当周，欧洲 ARA 枢 ...

Group 1: Energy - The international oil price fell overnight, with the Brent 01 contract down 0.8%. The geopolitical risk premium of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was suppressed, and the oil price rebound due to geopolitical factors was limited. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil. The low-sulfur market is supported by supply disruptions and strong diesel cracking, while the high-sulfur market is expected to face supply increases in the medium term [21] - The cost support for asphalt is weakening, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market sentiment is bearish [22] - The expected import cost of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is rising in December. The demand from both the chemical and combustion sectors is improving, and the LPG market is expected to be strong [23] Group 2: Metals - Precious metals are oscillating at a high level. The employment data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements are divided. The possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough on the technical side [2] - Copper prices fell overnight due to a stronger dollar and weak demand. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 87,000 yuan [3] - Aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. The Fed's interest rate cut prospects are uncertain, and the aluminum market may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to the support of the middle Bollinger Band [4] - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The inventory structure is gradually being repaired, and there is still profit potential for cross-market arbitrage [7] - Lead prices are supported by low inventory levels, but the external market is under pressure due to high inventory. The import window for aluminum ingots may open, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices is insufficient [8] - Nickel prices are weakening. The macro risk is increasing, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel is increasing [9] - Tin prices are oscillating. The environmental rectification in Malaysia has limited impact on the market. The import of tin concentrate in China has improved slightly, but the resumption of supply from Myanmar is not strong. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] - Lithium carbonate prices are strengthening. The downstream demand is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The technical analysis shows a range breakthrough, and a buy-on-dip strategy can be adopted [11] - Polycrystalline silicon prices are falling. The photovoltaic demand is weak, and the actual supply-demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - Industrial silicon prices are undergoing a technical correction. The downstream demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon is expected to improve, which may boost the price [13] Group 3: Building Materials - Steel prices rebounded at night. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils is improving, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. Attention should be paid to the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [14] - Iron ore prices are oscillating. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term [15] - Coke and coking coal prices are expected to be weak and oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is stable, but the steel mills' profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is high [16][17] - Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices are falling. The market expects coal supply to increase, which may lower the cost. The demand is stable, but the supply is high, and the bottom support may weaken [18][19] Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices are oscillating narrowly. The Indian tender results will affect the market sentiment. The agricultural demand is weakening, but the industrial demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [24] - Methanol prices are in a weak position. The overseas supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [25] - Pure benzene prices are rebounding, but the sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure is easing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the export to the US faces challenges [26] - Styrene prices are supported by cost and supply reduction. The demand from the European market is strong [27] - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices are expected to be weak. The supply is high, and the demand is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is increasing [28] - PVC and caustic soda prices are falling. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the cost changes and profit margins [29] - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. The supply from overseas may be affected, and the demand is weakening. The market is cautiously bullish [30] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be bearish. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. A short strategy can be adopted [31] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices are under pressure. The demand is weakening, and the prices are expected to follow the raw material prices [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are oscillating. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs to be monitored. A buy-on-dip strategy can be considered after the correction [36] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by the US biodiesel policy. The palm oil price may have bottomed out [37] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are under pressure. The import volume has decreased, and the demand is weak. A bearish strategy is recommended [38] - Corn prices are oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving. The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to decline [40] - Hog prices are at a low level. The futures market is trading on the potential supply pressure in the future. The pig price may form a double bottom in the first half of next year [41] - Egg prices are rebounding strongly. The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous price decline has ended [42] - Cotton prices are range-bound. The US cotton export sales are increasing, but the domestic demand is average. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range-bound in the short term [43] - Sugar prices are oscillating. The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is focusing on the new season's production estimate. The production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - Apple prices are oscillating at a high level. The short-term price is strong due to low inventory, but the long-term inventory pressure may exist. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction [44] Group 6: Others - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in early December and may improve in late December. The 02 contract may be slightly discounted compared to the 12 contract, and the far-month contracts are expected to be low and oscillating [20] - Wood prices are oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and a wait-and-see strategy is recommended [45] - Pulp prices are falling. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [46] - Stock index futures are falling. The A-share market is volatile, and the external market is uncertain. A wait-and-see strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to stable, consumer, and cyclical sectors [47] - Treasury bond futures are falling. The market is trading lightly, and the structure is differentiated. The change in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48]