| 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/08/22 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/21 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/20 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/19 | -99.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/18 | -100.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 8 月 25 日） 一、动力煤 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 2025/08/22 2025/08/21 2025/08/20 2025/08/19 2025 ...

2025 年 8 月 25 日 沥青：油价稍偏强，裂解愈回落 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,520 | 0.69% | 3,535 | 0.43% | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,483 | 0.52% | 3,498 | 0.43% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2509 | 手 | 6,165 | (1,274) | 17,883 | (2,654) | | | BU2510 | 手 | 139,452 | 16,086 | 208,416 | (3,045) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 72650 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | ...

沥青周报 边际略有好转 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年8月22日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 01 周度观点 02 数据概览 目录 CONTENTS 01 周度观点 1.1 周度观点 上周主要观点：沥青自身依然刚需为主，下周预计降雨影响有所减少，但资金制约使得需求总体难有超 预期表现。现阶段虽然厂库位置较低，但社库持续没有去化或继续压制市场情绪。预计沥青走势整体震 荡，偏弱跟随成本端为主。 本周走势分析：本周沥青走势震荡，后半周小幅走强，总体跟随成本端原油走势。 本周行业数据：本周炼厂供需双减，其中开工下降更多。厂库小幅增加，之前一直去库不畅的社库本周 出现松动，边际偏多。 本周主要观点：随着未来短期检修量增加，而降雨天气减少，预计沥青边际好转，不过需求依然受到资 金面制约。预计沥青难以走出独立行情，跟随成本端为主。 风险提示：成本端波动风险，沥青库存变化 02 数据概览 0 100 200 300 400 500 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 10 20 3 ...

中航期货 2025-08-22 沥青周度报告 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 05 后市研判 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 数据分析 报告PA摘R要T 01 （1）美俄总统会晤及美国总统与欧洲多国领导人会晤结果基本符合市场预期。 （2）美联储公布会议纪要显示，联邦公开市场委员会在货币政策路径上分歧加剧。 （3）EIA原油当周库存超预期下降。 市场焦点 | | （1）截止8月20日，国内沥青样本企业开工率30.7%，较上一统计周期回落2.2个百分点。 | | --- | --- | | 重点数据 | （2）截止8月22日，国内沥青周度产量54.8万吨，环比上周减少4万吨。 | | | （3）截止8月22日，国内沥青样本企业厂库库存71.6万吨，当周环比增加0.5万吨。 | | | （4）截止8月22日，国内沥青样本企业社会库存129.2万吨，环比上周减少5.1万吨。 | | | 本周沥青基本面延续供需双弱的特征，供应端，周度产量及开工率环比下降，需求端，出货量环比小幅下降，厂 | | 主要观点 | 库在产量下降的背景下仍呈现小幅累库的态势，表明 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 8 月 22 日 能化板块 宝城期货能化板块数据周报 核心观点 能源化工：本周国内能源化工商品板块整体呈现震荡企稳的走 势。一方面，受益于成本端支撑，原油期货止跌反弹，强化下游成本 支撑作用，提振芳烃板块、聚烯烃板块、油化工板块集体走强。另一 方面，库存角度来看，经历前期大幅回落以后，甲醇期货也迎来超跌 反弹，不过港口累库趋势延续，上行阻力依然存在。同时燃料油和沥 青也出现小幅累库现象。芳烃板块中，PTA 小幅累库，乙二醇则小幅 去库。聚烯烃板块中，塑料、PVC、聚丙烯和苯乙烯都呈现小幅累库的 现象。整体来看，随着宏观氛围好转，美联储降息预期升温，宏观因 子盖过产业因子，能化板块累库压力存在，但未能妨碍本周能化板块 集体震荡企稳的趋势。 宝城期货金融研究所 能化板块 |周报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：c ...

1、彭博社引述知情人士报道,旨在削减石化行业低附加值领域长期产能过剩的 措施,可能在下个月出台。知情人士说,具体方案正在等待中国工业和信息化部 的最终批准。 2、运营超过20年的石化设施需进行技术改造以提高产能,同时政府将鼓励企业 转向特种精细化工领域。 3、8月20日,美国能源信息署(EIA)周三公布的库存报告显示,美国上周原油和 汽油库存下降。截至8月15日当周,美国商业原油库存减少600万桶,至4.207亿 桶,此前市场预期为减少180万桶。美国战略石油储备(SPR)增加20万桶,至 4. 034亿桶。美国库欣原油库存增加41.9万桶。 E THE arted 4、8月20日（周三）,联合组织数据倡议(JODI)公布的官方数据显示,沙特阿 拉伯6月份的原油出口量下滑至三个月来的最低水平。这个世界上最大的石油出 口国的原油出口是从5月份的619.1万桶/日降至614.1万桶/日。 5、8月20日,联合组织数据倡议(JODI)周三发布的最新数据显示,全球6月石 油需求较5月份激增逾100万桶/日,而产量增幅仅为5月的一半,导致库存低于五 年平均水平。根据JODI最新数据,48个JODI报告国家的6月份石油需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: All the futures varieties in the report are expected to show an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the possible fluctuations of oil prices under the unstable geopolitical situation [1][3]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices continued to rebound. The current Russia - Ukraine meeting still has certain uncertainties, and oil prices are slowly recovering from a pessimistic sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is suppressed by sufficient supply and weak downstream demand, while the high - sulfur market shows signs of stabilization, and supply reduction in September may support the market [3]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is expected to increase in the second half of August, and demand in the north is relatively stable while that in the east is expected to recover. The market is expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices oscillating within a range [3]. - **Polyester**: PX supply and demand continue to recover, and PTA prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Ethylene glycol supply recovers well, and downstream demand is gradually improving [5]. - **Rubber**: Rubber raw materials are firm, tire demand and production are recovering, and the short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly [5][7]. - **Methanol**: Domestic device maintenance has led to a short - term low in supply, and overseas shipments are stable. Port inventory is expected to increase, and methanol prices will oscillate narrowly [7]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply will remain high, and with the approaching of the peak demand season, downstream demand is expected to increase. Overall, it will show a narrow - range oscillating pattern [7][8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up. With the intervention of industrial hedging, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI October contract rose $0.81/barrel to $63.52/barrel, a 1.29% increase. Brent October contract rose $0.83/barrel to $67.67/barrel, a 1.24% increase. SC2510 contract closed at 492.9 yuan/barrel at night, a 1.27% increase. There are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine situation, and some oil fields have restarted production [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil both rose. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories decreased. The low - sulfur market is under pressure from supply, while the high - sulfur market may be supported by supply reduction in September [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract rose. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to recover [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 1.72%, EG2601 fell 0.09%. Some PTA devices are under planned - out maintenance, and downstream demand is showing signs of recovery [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the prices of various rubber futures rose. The operating loads of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5][7]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol prices in different regions were reported. Domestic device maintenance led to a short - term low in supply, and overseas shipments were stable. Port inventory is expected to increase [7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the prices of polyolefin products changed. Supply will remain high, and demand is expected to increase with the approaching of the peak season [7][8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China increased. Supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical varieties on August 22, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump said that the result of the Russia - Ukraine issue would be known in about two weeks, and the US might adopt other strategies. The Trump administration is expected to double the tariffs on India on August 27 [12]. - Two oil tankers chartered by Chevron carrying Venezuelan crude oil arrived in US waters on Thursday, which was the first import of Venezuelan oil after Chevron obtained a new license from the US government [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [14][17][20]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., and their historical trends [31][33][37]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., including 01 - 05, 09 - 01 spreads [46][48][51]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, and the ratio charts of some varieties [62][66][68]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc [73][76][78]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy - chemical research, with rich experience in futures derivatives market research and many honors [80]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry and many awards [81]. - **Di Yilin**: An analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with strong data analysis ability and many honors [82]. - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and relevant professional qualifications [83].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 库存下降叠加美新增对伊朗制裁，油价短线反弹，但俄乌地缘缓和，供给 | | 原油 | | 过剩压力不断上升，油价趋势仍向下。美俄会谈后，俄乌冲突结束预期上 | | | 谨慎看空 | 升；供需方面，油价进入旺季尾声，随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，原油供给过 | | ★ | | 剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，供给端重点关注 60 美元附近美国 | | | | 页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点。策略：买入看跌期权。 | | | | 估值修复，下游开工回落，关注成本端油价变动。成本端油价短线反弹， | | LPG | | 但趋势仍然向下；估值修复，主力合约基差处于正常水平；下游化工需求 | | ★ | 多单止盈 | 尚可，PDH 开工率环比下降，但仍高于 70%；供给端和库存变化不大，偏 | | | | 中性。策略：估值回归，警惕成本端走弱，多单止盈。 | | | | 化工板块低估值下普遍反弹。塑料自身基本面预期向好，期现同涨，基差 | | L | | 走强。近期检修力度明显加强，LL 进口毛利下降，本周产量高位下滑。棚 | | ★★ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties of Baocheng Futures on August 22, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][39][50] Summary by Category Power Coal - The table shows the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of power coal from August 15 to August 21, 2025. The basis on August 21 was - 97.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads were all 0.0 [1][2] Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - Data on the basis of energy commodities (fuel oil, INE crude oil, crude oil/asphalt) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are provided, along with the ratio of crude oil to asphalt and other information [7] Chemical Commodities - The basis data of chemical commodities (rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, PP) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of rubber on August 21 was - 920 yuan/ton [9] - The table shows the inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of chemical commodities (rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, ethylene glycol) and inter - variety spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3*methanol) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 [11] Black Metals - The basis data of black metals (rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are given. For instance, the basis of rebar on August 21 was 199.0 yuan/ton [21] - The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) and inter - variety spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot - rolled coil) of black metals are presented [20] Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of copper on August 21 was 220 yuan/ton [28] London Market - Data on LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on August 21, 2025 are provided, including LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss [34] Agricultural Products - The basis data of agricultural products (soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc.) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are presented [39] - The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of agricultural products (soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc.) are shown [39] - The inter - variety spreads (soybean No.1/corn, soybean No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, etc.) of agricultural products from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are provided [39] Stock Index Futures - The basis data of stock index futures (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on August 21 was 5.87 [51] - The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of stock index futures are presented [53]

2025 年 8 月 22 日 沥青：原油略强，裂解愈弱 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,496 | 0.09% | 3,500 | 0.11% | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,465 | 0.32% | 3,468 | 0.09% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2509 | 手 | 7,439 | (834) | 20,537 | (3,225) | | | BU2510 | 手 | 123,366 | (22,655) | 211,461 | (6,077) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 72650 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 价 ...