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建信期货原油日报-20250808
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 02:01
Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the oil market are generally neutral, with limited production growth from OPEC+ and the US, and the actual demand in the peak season slightly falling short of expectations. Oil prices are mainly driven by macro - level tariffs, sanctions, and geopolitical situations. In the medium term, as demand moves towards the off - season, oil prices may fall again. Due to the fermentation of negative macro - level sentiment, it is advisable to consider short positions after a rebound [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: The WTI main contract opened at $65.15, closed at $64.27, with a high of $66.75, a low of $63.64, a decline of 1.37%, and a trading volume of 33.36 million lots. The Brent main contract opened at $67.75, closed at $66.96, with a high of $69.18, a low of $66.22, a decline of 1.01%, and a trading volume of 39.59 million lots. The SC main contract (yuan/barrel) opened at 508.4, closed at 501, with a high of 510.9, a low of 497.5, a decline of 0.63%, and a trading volume of 14.76 million lots [6]. - **News**: According to the New York Times, Trump may meet with Putin face - to - face next week, followed by a three - way meeting with Zelensky. Under this background, the possibility of the US imposing secondary tariffs on Russian energy is extremely low [6]. - **EIA Data**: As of the week ending August 1st, US crude oil inventories declined more than expected, and the refinery utilization rate reached a new high. However, US refined oil demand remained weak, with gasoline consumption in the peak season not significantly increasing and being lower than the same period in 2024 for four consecutive weeks [7]. 2. Industry News - Goldman Sachs data shows that although Russia supplies about one - third of India's crude oil, the US share climbed to 8% from April to May 2025 and was 4% in the 2025 fiscal year [8]. - The Iraqi oil minister said that oil exports through the Turkish Ceyhan pipeline will resume on Wednesday or Thursday [8]. - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the Russian military attacked the Ukrainian natural gas transportation system supplying military facilities [8]. - After the US decided to impose a 25% new tariff on Indian goods, Indian refiners are waiting for government instructions on whether to continue buying Russian oil [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI spot price, Oman spot price, Brent fund net position, Dtd Brent price, global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI fund position, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory, with data sources from wind, CFTC, Bloomberg, and EIA [11][13][14]