1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bullish on crude oil [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Middle - East geopolitical situation remains tense, the transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is interrupted, and concerns about supply disruptions are the main drivers for short - term oil price increases. Although countries are releasing strategic oil reserves, the impact is limited [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - long - term)**: EIA predicts a 1.5657 million barrels per day increase in crude oil supply in 2026, mainly from non - OPEC+ regions. OPEC expects a supply of 106.70 million barrels per day in 2026, and if OPEC+ maintains the December 2025 production level, the 2026 production will be 170,000 barrels per day lower than demand. IEA predicts an 1.1 million barrels per day increase in oil supply in 2026, a significant downward revision from the previous forecast due to the Middle - East war [3] - **Demand (Medium - to - long - term)**: EIA expects global crude oil demand in 2026 to be 104.79 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.202 million barrels per day compared to 2025 and a 29,300 barrels per day downward revision from the previous month's forecast. OPEC expects global oil demand in 2026 to be 106.52 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.3805 million barrels per day compared to 2025, and a 1.34 million barrels per day increase in 2027. IEA expects global oil consumption in 2026 to be 104.77 million barrels per day, an increase of 849,400 barrels per day compared to 2025 but a 109,000 barrels per day downward revision from the previous month's forecast [3] - **Inventory (Short - term)**: As of the week ending March 13, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.156 million barrels, with an expected increase of 383,000 barrels and a previous increase of 3.824 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories in Oklahoma increased by 944,000 barrels, with a previous increase of 117,000 barrels. Refined oil inventories decreased by 2.527 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 1.525 million barrels and a previous decrease of 1.349 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 5.436 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 1.607 million barrels and a previous decrease of 3.64 million barrels [3] - **Oil - producing Country Policies (Medium - to - long - term)**: Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) in the UAE has been forced to implement large - scale production shutdowns, with its daily crude oil production more than halved. The International Energy Agency announced that Japan, Canada, and South Korea will be the main contributors to the large - scale emergency oil reserve release operation in response to the supply disruption caused by the Iran war, and member countries have contributed 426 million barrels of oil, with 172 million barrels from the United States [3] - **Geopolitics (Short - term)**: The U.S. Treasury Secretary said that the U.S. has not attacked Iran's energy infrastructure, has allowed Iranian oil to continue to be transported through the Gulf, and may lift sanctions on Iranian oil at sea in the coming days. The U.S. may also release strategic oil reserves again to suppress oil prices. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched the "True Commitment - 4" 69th wave of operations, targeting Israel. Trump said that the U.S. is considering gradually downgrading military operations against Iran and will no longer be responsible for the guard and patrol of the Strait of Hormuz [3] - **Macro - finance (Short - term)**: According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut in June is 11.2%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 88.8%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 77.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 22.6%. As of the week ending March 7, the initial jobless claims were 213,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week and lower than the market expectation of 215,000. The continued jobless claims were 1.85 million, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, it is also recommended to wait and see [3] 3.2 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - **Price Changes**: SC crude oil increased by 3.04% to 773.6 yuan per barrel, Brent crude oil increased by 0.50% to 104.41 dollars per barrel, and WTI crude oil decreased by 1.23% to 98.09 dollars per barrel. Gasoline prices increased by 8.14%, ICE diesel prices increased by 3.25%, high - sulfur fuel oil prices increased by 0.55%, and low - sulfur fuel oil prices increased by 0.18% [5] - **Inventory Changes**: U.S., European, and Singaporean oil product inventories showed different changes. For example, diesel inventories decreased by 2.29%, fuel oil inventories increased by 3.26%, and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 4.08%. Chinese oil inventories also had various changes, such as gasoline commercial inventories increasing by 0.24% and diesel commercial inventories increasing by 0.95% [5] - **Refinery Operating Rates**: The operating rate of Chinese state - owned refineries decreased by 6.13% to 75.22%, the operating rate of Chinese independent refineries increased by 0.82% to 43.99%, the U.S. refinery operating rate increased by 0.60% to 91.4%, and the Japanese refinery operating rate decreased by 8.40% to 72.5% [5] - **Production**: U.S. crude oil production decreased by 0.07% to 13.668 million barrels per day [5] 3.3 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: The U.S. - Iran situation is volatile, and oil prices fluctuate widely at high levels. Geopolitical risks dominate the international crude oil market. As of March 20, the closing price of the WTI crude oil main contract was 98.09 dollars per barrel, a weekly decrease of 1.22 dollars per barrel (-1.03%); the closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 104.41 dollars per barrel, a weekly increase of 0.52 dollars per barrel (+0.50%); the closing price of the SC crude oil main contract was 773.6 yuan per barrel, a weekly increase of 22.8 yuan per barrel (+3.04%) [7] - **Month - to - Month Spreads and Internal - External Spreads**: Near - month spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads continued to widen [10] - **Forward Curves**: Month - to - month spreads strengthened significantly [21] - **Crack Spreads**: Gasoline and diesel crack spreads remained at high levels [24] 3.4 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production** - **Global Production**: In January 2026, EIA data shows that global crude oil and related liquid production was 106.33 million barrels per day, a decrease of 1.741 million barrels per day compared to December 2025. OPEC data shows that OPEC countries' crude oil production was 28.453 million barrels per day, a decrease of 135,000 barrels per day compared to December 2025, and non - OPEC DoC countries' crude oil production was 13.996 million barrels per day, a decrease of 304,000 barrels per day compared to December 2025. IEA data shows that OPEC countries' crude oil production was 29.28 million barrels per day, an increase of 410,000 barrels per day compared to December 2025, and non - OPEC DoC countries' crude oil production was 14 million barrels per day, a decrease of 580,000 barrels per day compared to December 2025 [45] - **U.S. Production**: As of the week ending March 13, U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.67 million barrels per day; crude oil exports increased by 1.464 million barrels per day to 4.898 million barrels per day, and imports increased by 772,000 barrels per day to 7.194 million barrels per day; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory remained unchanged at 415.4 million barrels, and the four - week average supply of crude oil products reached 21.041 million barrels per day, a 2.14% increase compared to the same period last year. As of the week ending March 20, the total number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. was 552, with a previous value of 553 [67] - **Inventory** - **U.S. Inventory**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 6.156 million barrels, and Cushing inventories increased by 944,000 barrels [68] - **International Inventory**: Northwest European crude oil inventories decreased, and Singaporean fuel oil inventories decreased [74] - **Demand** - **U.S. Demand**: Refinery operating rates increased by 0.60% to 91.40%, and crude oil processing volume increased by 90,000 barrels per day to 15.96 million barrels per day. Gasoline implied demand was 9.6766 million barrels per day, a decrease of 443,800 barrels per day compared to the previous week; distillate implied demand was 5.451 million barrels per day, an increase of 135,300 barrels per day compared to the previous week [98] - **Chinese Demand**: In the 12th week of 2026 (March 13 - 19), the capacity utilization rate of Chinese independent refineries for refined oil products was 57.49%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of independent refineries in regions such as South China, Shandong, and East China decreased significantly. In the week of March 13 - 19, 2026, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Shandong local refineries was 54.29%, a 0.52% decrease compared to the previous week and an 8.17% increase compared to the same period last year [100][101] - **Macro - finance**: U.S. Treasury yields increased, and the U.S. dollar index strengthened [122] - **CFTC Positions**: The speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil increased [125]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The ongoing war between the US, Israel, and Iran has made the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz a gray rhino event, causing oil prices to remain high. The supply of crude oil is expected to decline, and the market is in a state of shortage. The release of strategic oil reserves can only temporarily alleviate the supply gap. The price of crude oil will depend on the situation of the Strait of Hormuz and the balance between supply and demand [3][4]. - The Chinese government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, which will support the equity market, especially the infrastructure, consumption, and technology sectors. However, the overseas "stagflation" risk and the market's demand for verifying the economic recovery strength will suppress the global risk preference, and the market will continue to adjust with structural differentiation [5]. - Geopolitical risks have not pushed up the price of gold as expected. Instead, the soaring oil price has strengthened inflation expectations, leading to a significant cooling of the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield have put pressure on the price of gold. The price of gold is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there may be an opportunity to buy at a low price in the medium - to - long term [6][7]. - The price of silver is under pressure from the strengthening dollar and the market's short positions, but it is also supported by strong industrial demand and supply shortages. Traders should pay attention to the breakthrough of key intervals and control their positions [8]. - The prices of various chemical products are affected by factors such as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, supply and demand, and cost. The market trends of different chemical products vary, and investors need to pay attention to relevant factors [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as international geopolitical situations, supply and demand, and policies. Different agricultural products have different market trends, and investors need to pay attention to relevant information [19][20][21][22][23][24][25]. - The prices of metals are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and inventory. Different metals have different market trends, and investors need to pay attention to relevant factors [26][27][28][29][30][31][32]. - The prices of black commodities are affected by factors such as policy expectations, supply and demand, and cost. Different black commodities have different market trends, and investors need to pay attention to relevant information [33][34][35][36][37][38][39]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Macro and Geopolitical Factors**: The war between the US, Israel, and Iran continues, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has become a gray rhino event, causing oil prices to remain high. The US president's call for joint escort has received few responses, and it is difficult to resume navigation in the short term. The reduction in production by Middle Eastern oil - producing countries and the increased transportation costs due to rerouting after the blockade will give crude oil a certain premium [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The IEA predicts that the crude oil supply will decrease by 8 million barrels per day in March. If the blockade continues, the supply may continue to decline. The market has shifted from oversupply to shortage, with a gap of 10 - 20 million barrels per day, accounting for 10% of the dynamic balance. The release of strategic oil reserves can only make up for one - month's export gap if the Strait of Hormuz has zero traffic. The price of crude oil may drop significantly if the Strait is reopened after the refineries reduce their loads and demand declines further. If the Strait's traffic and the supply - demand balance do not return to normal during the peak summer season, the oil price will remain high [4]. - **Reference View**: Pay attention to whether the WTI main contract can hold the key position around $95 - 100 per barrel. The volatility of crude oil has increased [4]. Stock Index - **Macro Information**: The Chinese government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, aiming to stabilize the macro - economic situation and support the equity market, especially the infrastructure, consumption, and technology sectors [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The overseas "stagflation" risk has suppressed the global risk preference. The market's demand for verifying the economic recovery strength has increased. Some growth sectors are facing performance tests and changes in external liquidity expectations. Funds tend to flow to large - cap, low - valuation, and high - performance - stability sectors, and the market risk preference has decreased [5]. - **Reference View**: The main broad - based indexes will continue to adjust in a volatile manner, and structural differentiation may continue [5]. Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical risks have not pushed up the price of gold as expected. Instead, the soaring oil price has strengthened inflation expectations, leading to a significant cooling of the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield have put pressure on the price of gold [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The price of spot gold fluctuates within a range and once fell below $5000 per ounce this week. The main pressure on the gold market comes from the reconstruction of interest rate expectations. The SPDR Gold ETF has continuously reduced its positions slightly. If the oil price continues to rise slowly, the dollar and the US Treasury yield may continue to be supported, and the price of gold may continue to fluctuate in the short term to digest the selling pressure [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a neutral position before the Fed's interest rate meeting. If the geopolitical situation eases and the oil price drops, there may be an opportunity to buy at a low price. In the medium - to - long term, the allocation value of gold still exists [7]. Silver - **External Price**: On March 17, the silver market continued to be under pressure, and the London silver was struggling around the $80 per ounce mark. The macro - suppression factors are still obvious, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has been continuously suppressed due to inflation concerns caused by the Middle East situation. The strengthening dollar has made silver more expensive for non - US buyers [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Silver is experiencing a fierce game between its "commodity attribute" and "financial attribute". The support comes from strong industrial demand and continuous supply deficits, while the pressure comes from the increase in real interest rates and the long - short game in the speculative market. Although there is a supply shortage, a large number of short positions in the paper - silver market have formed a price - suppression mechanism. If the dollar index continues to rise, the silver price may test lower support levels; if the geopolitical situation eases and the dollar falls, the continuous supply shortage may push up the price [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term traders should pay attention to the breakthrough of key intervals and be flexible within the range. Before the Fed's monetary policy path becomes clear, strictly control the position to deal with the current high - volatility environment [8]. Chemical Industry Rubber - **Market Price**: The spot prices of domestic whole - latex, Thai smoked three - piece, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, and 20 - grade rubber are 16,700 yuan/ton, 19,900 yuan/ton, 17,000 yuan/ton, and 15,200 yuan/ton respectively. The raw material prices in Haikou are 74.3 Thai baht/kg for smoked sheets, 73 Thai baht/kg for latex, 58.5 Thai baht/kg for cup rubber, and 70 Thai baht/kg for raw rubber [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The Shanghai rubber market remains neutral. The continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may have a negative impact on the demand for Shanghai rubber, but due to the off - season of rubber tapping, the raw material prices are still rising, so the downside space is limited. The raw material prices in Thailand are still at a high level, providing support for the rubber price. However, the domestic production areas are gradually starting to tap, and the supply is becoming more abundant. The blockade of the strait has increased the premium of energy - chemical products but also worried the market about the demand for natural rubber. The downstream demand shows that the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises last week was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36%; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42% and a year - on - year increase of 2.81%. The inventory in Qingdao Bonded Area increased by 1.27% to 11.96 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.04% to 68.04 tons. Under the influence of multiple factors, the upward trend of Shanghai rubber may slow down and turn into a wide - range shock [10]. - **Reference View**: The main contract of Shanghai rubber will fluctuate around 16,400 - 17,500 yuan/ton [10]. Plastic - **Spot Information**: The mainstream spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 8,414 yuan/ton, 8,665 yuan/ton, and 8,977 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 60 yuan/ton, 126 yuan/ton, and 105 yuan/ton [11]. - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the operating rate of China's polyethylene plants last week was 82.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5171%; the production affected by plant maintenance was 9.104 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.076 tons. On the demand side, the overall operating rate of polyethylene downstream enterprises last week was 33.83%. As of March 13, 2026, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 57.54 tons. On March 17, the closing price of L2605 was 8,496 yuan/ton, and the futures price declined. Geopolitical factors are expected to support the high price of crude oil, the cost side is strong, the downstream rigid demand may improve slightly but the procurement is cautious, the supply is expected to decrease, the inventory is maintained at a reasonable level, and the macro - situation is still uncertain. The polyethylene market is expected to fluctuate in a relatively strong range under the game of multiple factors, and the price is difficult to continue to rise significantly [11]. - **Reference View**: It is expected that plastics will fluctuate in a relatively strong range in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [12]. Methanol - **Spot Information**: The spot price of methanol in Zhejiang is 2,865 yuan/ton, an upward fluctuation of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price in Xinjiang is 1,750 yuan/ton, the same as the previous trading day. The spot price in Hebei is 2,340 yuan/ton, the same as the previous trading day [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the main methanol futures contract MA605 is 2,847 yuan/ton, an upward fluctuation of 0.35% from the previous trading day. In terms of inventory, the total port inventory is 131.28 tons, with a significant reduction of 13.07 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory in South China decreased by 3.51 tons, and the inventory in East China decreased by 9.56 tons. On the supply side, the upstream coal - to - methanol still has profits, and the operating rate of the domestic methanol industry is 90.15%, maintaining a high level; on the demand side, the loss of MTO profits has increased, the operating rate of the device is maintained at 84.08%; the operating rate of the MTBE device is 68.94%, and the demand for traditional downstream products (acetic acid, formaldehyde) is still weak, mainly for rigid - demand procurement, suppressing the price elasticity. Internationally, the Middle East conflict has blocked the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Brent crude oil has rebounded again, with the increase once expanding to about 4%. The cost support of methanol has been strengthened; the risk of supply interruption of Iranian methanol supports the price [13]. - **Reference View**: Methanol futures may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, presenting a pattern of strong geopolitics and weak reality. Pay close attention to the navigation situation of the Strait of Hormuz and the dynamics of Iranian devices. Track the Middle East situation and the destocking of port inventory, and be vigilant against the intensification of the negative feedback in the industrial chain [13]. PTA - **Spot Information**: The spot price in East China is 6,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The logistics risk in the strait has led to a shortage of PX supply, and domestic refineries have reduced their loads preventively, so the short - term cost support is strong. The supply of PTA is steadily increasing. In terms of device operation, a 3.6 - million - ton device in East China reduced its load on March 12, but other devices such as Yisheng New Materials and Dushan Energy have restarted or increased their loads one after another, and the overall supply has maintained a growth trend. The demand of the downstream polyester industry is slowly recovering. Among the sub - products, the output of polyester industrial yarn has increased significantly; the capacity utilization rate of PET chip fiber has increased from 81.37% to 86.22%, indicating that the downstream operation is gradually improving. However, the inventory of PTA factories has accumulated, mainly because the recovery rhythm of downstream demand is slower than the supply growth rate, and the market's concern about supply interruption has prompted more inventory building [14]. - **Reference View**: In the short term, continue to pay attention to geopolitical disturbances. In addition, the recovery of downstream demand is still the key [14]. Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The spot price in East China is 4,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton [15]. - **Market Analysis**: In March, multiple domestic coal - based and oil - based devices are planned for maintenance, and external Iranian devices are shut down (with an annual capacity of 450,000 tons). Coupled with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the import expectation has decreased, and the domestic ethylene glycol production has decreased significantly, and the supply side has continued to tighten. The demand of the downstream polyester industry remains stable, and the capacity utilization rate is maintained at around 83.83%. The downstream inventory - building willingness has increased. It is worth noting that the polyester industry accounts for 94% of ethylene glycol consumption and is greatly affected by the cost side in the short term [15]. - **Reference View**: Pay attention to the trend of the cost - side oil price and downstream demand, and it will fluctuate in a short - term range [15]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1,236 yuan/ton, the same as the previous period. There are slight differences among different regions. The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in East China is 1,250 yuan/ton, in North China is 1,280 yuan/ton, and in Central China is 1,230 yuan/ton, all the same as the previous period [16]. - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the overall operating rate of soda ash last week was 87%, a month - on - month increase of 0.23%. The soda ash output was 80.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.22 tons. There were few maintenance enterprises during the week, and the supply remained at a high level. In terms of inventory, the manufacturer's inventory last week was 1.9317 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,500 tons, a decrease of 0.80%, and the inventory decreased slightly. It is understood that the social inventory has increased steadily and is close to 280,000 tons. The demand performance is average. Overall, there is no major change in the soda ash market, and the fundamentals are still weak. However, the international situation is changeable, and it is expected that the market will still fluctuate highly, but the upside space may be limited due to the fundamental pressure. Pay attention to macro and policy dynamics, enterprise maintenance situations, and inventory changes [16]. - **Reference View**: The market continued to decline slightly yesterday. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high in the short term [16]. Glass - **Spot Information**: The market price of 5 - mm large - plate glass in the Shahe area is 1,044 yuan/ton, the same as the previous period. There are slight differences among different regions. The market price of 5 - mm large - plate glass in East China is 1,250 yuan/ton, in North China is 1,070 yuan/ton, and in Central China is 1,090 yuan/ton, all the same as the previous period [17][18]. - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the operating rate of float - glass last week was 71.05%, a month - on - month increase of 0.24%. The weekly glass output was 1.0333 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,400 tons. One production line in North China was ignited, and one production line in North China and one in Northwest China were shut down

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Bullish logic: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are frequent, the US - Iran war continues, and the Strait of Hormuz restricts vessel passage; the Fed has opened an interest - rate cut channel, which is favorable for commodities; the actual production increase of OPEC+ may be limited [27][28]. - Bearish logic: The problem of oversupply persists, crude oil inventories are accumulating, and the production increase path is difficult to reverse; geopolitical conflicts may ease, and there may be new progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, leading to a decline in geopolitical premiums; the duration of the US - Iran conflict is uncertain; the macro - economy is weakening with a downward expectation [29][30][31]. - Strategy summary: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has become normalized, and the oil releases by various countries are difficult to make up for the supply gap. Some countries have started production cuts to deal with the short - term rapid increase in inventories, and the scale of production cuts may exceed 10 million barrels per day. More than 20% of the world's crude oil transportation passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is the key point of the US - Iran game, and currently only a small number of vessels can pass. The US bombed the Iranian oil export hub of Kharg Island on Friday, escalating the war. Iran's exports are about 1.5 million barrels per day, which has a significant impact on global crude oil supply. The market has shifted from the dissipation of over - heated emotional premiums to the gradual realization of supply problems, and the world still faces a supply reduction risk of over 10 million barrels per day. The current market pricing may not be sufficient to reflect this extreme situation [34]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Core Indicators and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Key Event Review - **Fundamentals**: The G7 decided not to release strategic oil reserves immediately; Middle East oil production cuts intensified with a reduction of up to 6.7 million barrels per day from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait; the UAE was dealing with a fire at its largest refinery; the EIA adjusted its forecast of US crude oil production; the API crude oil inventory in the US decreased; the IEA proposed to release the largest - ever oil reserves; the US Energy Department planned to release 172 million barrels of oil in 120 days; the number of US oil rigs increased; US crude oil exports decreased, domestic production decreased slightly, commercial crude oil inventories increased, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories increased slightly [11][14][16]. - **Macroeconomic data**: US inflation data such as CPI and PCE were released, and data on initial jobless claims, GDP, and consumer confidence were also reported [15][16]. - **Geopolitical conflicts**: Trump mentioned the possibility of sending US troops to Iran; Iran threatened to attack neighboring oil facilities and block the Strait of Hormuz; the US bombed the Iranian oil export hub of Kharg Island and sent additional military forces to the Middle East; Gulf countries tried to persuade the US to avoid attacking Iranian energy facilities [20][23]. - **Institutional forecasts**: The EIA and Citi Research adjusted their forecasts for crude oil prices [24]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Core Indicator Calendar Key events and data releases include an economic and trade consultation between China and the US, API and EIA crude oil inventories, the Fed's interest - rate decision, initial jobless claims, the European Central Bank's deposit mechanism rate, and the number of US oil rigs [25]. 3.2 Price Basic Data - **Crude oil basic prices**: The prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Middle - East crude oil showed significant increases on a weekly, monthly, and annual basis [40][41]. - **Crude oil forward prices**: The forward curves of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil were presented [60][61]. - **Crude oil monthly spreads**: The monthly spreads of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil were analyzed [62][63]. - **Crude oil盘面 spreads**: Spreads such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, and Brent - SC were studied [69][70]. - **Main oil - type premiums and discounts**: Premiums and discounts of various oil types from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, etc. were shown [75][76]. - **US dollar index**: The relationship between the US dollar index and WTI prices was presented [89][90]. 3.3 World Crude Oil Supply and Demand - **World crude oil supply - demand forecasts**: OPEC, EIA, and IEA provided supply - demand balance tables and forecasts, showing trends in production, consumption, and inventory changes [97][98][100]. - **OPEC major - country production**: The production and export data of major OPEC countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait were presented, as well as Russia's export data [116][117][130]. - **Crude oil supply - demand forecasts**: Global supply and demand forecasts from EIA and OPEC were shown, along with estimates of jet fuel demand [135][136][139]. - **Refinery maintenance capacity**: Maintenance capacity data of global, Mediterranean, US, and Northwest European refineries were presented [140][141]. - **Refinery profits**: Crack spreads of European and Singapore refined products were analyzed [142][143][146]. - **Crude oil inventories**: Data on various types of crude oil inventories such as offshore, in - transit, floating storage, and OECD inventories were presented [151][152][160]. 3.4 China and US Oil Product Supply and Demand 3.4.1 US Oil Product Supply and Demand - **US oil product production**: Data on US crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and other product production, as well as refinery processing volume and capacity utilization, were presented [166][167]. - **US crude oil imports and exports**: US crude oil import and export data showed changes on a weekly, monthly, and annual basis [177][178][180]. - **US crude oil apparent consumption**: Data on US crude oil apparent consumption and related derived demands were presented [181][182][184]. - **US refinery profits**: Crack spreads of US refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were analyzed [185][186][189]. - **US crude oil inventories**: Data on various types of US crude oil and refined product inventories were presented [190][191][192]. - **CFTC position data**: WTI commercial and non - commercial positions, as well as ICE + NYMEY crude oil positions, were presented [210][211][213]. 3.4.2 China Oil Product Supply and Demand - **Domestic crude oil supply**: Data on China's crude oil production and imports were presented [216][217][218]. - **Crude oil import freight**: Freight data from the Middle East and West Africa to China were presented [219][220]. - **Domestic refined product data**: Data on refinery operating rates, profits, and inventories of refined products in China were presented [221][223][225]. - **Domestic crude oil inventories**: Data on Shandong refinery crude oil inventory ratios were presented [228][229]. - **Crude oil import quotas**: Data on China's crude oil import quotas and allowances over the years were presented [231][232][233]. 3.5 Financial Core Data - **Financial data**: Data on US initial jobless claims, non - farm payrolls, ADP employment, and inflation (CPI, core CPI, energy CPI) were presented [238][239][243].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on crude oil is bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The interruption of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz and the escalation of the US - Iran military conflict led to a significant increase in international oil prices. OPEC+ will increase production slightly in April, but the current tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the interruption of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz are the main drivers for the short - term rise in oil prices [3][7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - long - term)**: EIA slightly raised the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid production in 2026. OPEC's January 2026 crude oil production decreased compared to December 2025, while IEA showed an increase in OPEC's production in January 2026. Non - OPEC DoC countries' production had different trends in different reports [3] - **Demand (Medium - to - long - term)**: EIA and OPEC slightly adjusted the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid demand growth rate in 2026, while IEA lowered the forecast [3] - **Inventory (Short - term)**: The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) and Cushing crude oil inventory increased in the week ending February 27. Refined oil inventory and gasoline inventory had different changes [3] - **Oil - producing Country Policies (Medium - to - long - term)**: OPEC+ will increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting from April. The U.S. government has not discussed releasing strategic petroleum reserves for now, but may re - evaluate if oil prices remain high or geopolitical risks intensify [3] - **Geopolitical (Short - term)**: Tensions between Iran, the U.S., and Israel are rising. Iran is ready to respond to a U.S. ground invasion, and a U.S. naval aircraft carrier strike group is preparing to be deployed to the Middle East [3] - **Macro - finance (Short - term)**: Uncertainty in the current situation increases tail risks. If the conflict expands, oil prices may rise above $120 per barrel, affecting the U.S. economy. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March is over 97% [3] - **Investment View**: Bullish on crude oil. Although OPEC+ will increase production slightly in April, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the interruption of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz are the main drivers for the short - term rise in oil prices [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [3] 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: The interruption of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz and the escalation of the US - Iran military conflict led to a significant increase in international oil prices. As of March 6, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all had substantial weekly increases [7] - **Month - to - Month Spread and Internal - External Spread**: The near - month spread strengthened significantly, and the internal - external spread expanded sharply [10] - **Forward Curve**: The month - to - month spread strengthened significantly [24] - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel all strengthened [27][30] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In January 2026, global crude oil production decreased slightly. The production of non - OPEC countries increased in some cases. U.S. weekly crude oil production was 13.7 million barrels per day, with a slight decrease [42][51][77] - **Inventory**: U.S. commercial inventory increased by 347,500 barrels, and Cushing inventory increased by 156,400 barrels. Northwest European crude oil inventory increased, while Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased [78][84] - **Demand**: In the U.S., the implied demand for gasoline and diesel decreased, while the refinery operating rate increased slightly. In China, the refinery capacity utilization rate rebounded, and the profit of major refineries recovered, with the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel strengthening [108][118][126] - **Macro - finance**: U.S. Treasury yields increased, and the U.S. dollar index rose [139] - **CFTC Position**: The speculative net long position of WTI crude oil increased [148]

Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [1][6][5] Core Views - Oil prices surged in February 2026 due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-Iran conflict, with Brent crude averaging $69.4 per barrel and WTI averaging $64.4 per barrel, marking increases of $4.7 and $4.2 respectively [1][13] - OPEC+ plans to restore production by 20,600 barrels per day starting April 2026, following a gradual exit from previous voluntary production cuts [2][15] - Global oil demand is projected to grow by 850,000 to 1,380,000 barrels per day in 2026, with further increases expected in 2027 [3][16] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - February 2026 saw Brent crude futures average $69.4 per barrel, up $4.7 from the previous month, while WTI averaged $64.4 per barrel, up $4.2 [1][13] - Geopolitical events, including U.S. military actions and Iranian military exercises, contributed to price volatility [1][13] Oil Price Outlook - OPEC+ will restore production by 20,600 barrels per day in April 2026, following a complete exit from previous cuts by September 2025 [2][15] - The expected price range for Brent crude in 2026 is between $65 and $75 per barrel, while WTI is projected between $62 and $72 per barrel [4][38] Demand Forecast - Major energy agencies forecast 2026 oil demand at 10.652 million barrels per day (OPEC), 10.464 million (IEA), and 10.480 million (EIA), with increases of 138, 85, and 120 thousand barrels per day respectively from 2025 [3][16] - For 2027, demand is expected to rise further, with OPEC and EIA predicting increases of 134,000 and 128,000 barrels per day respectively [3][19] Key Company Earnings Forecast and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum, and Satellite Chemical are rated as "Outperform" with respective earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 and 2025 [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic crude oil futures prices may experience high - level oscillatory adjustments in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or focus on intraday short - term trading [52] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **China INE Crude Oil Futures Main Contract Price Trend**: Data source is Boyiyun and Guoxin Futures [10][12] - **US WTI Crude Oil Futures Continuous Contract Price Trend**: Data source is Boyiyun and Guoxin Futures [13][15] 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Analysis - **China's Crude Oil Monthly Output**: In December, China's above - scale industrial crude oil output was 17.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%, with a daily output of 574,000 tons. From January to December, the output was 216.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Crude oil processing speeded up. Data source is WIND and Guoxin Futures [19][20] - **China's Crude Oil Monthly Import Volume**: In December 2025, China's crude oil import volume was 55.973 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17%. From January to December, the cumulative import volume was 577.726 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Data source is WIND and Guoxin Futures [21][22] - **China's Refinery Operating Rate and Monthly Crude Oil Processing Volume**: In December, China's above - scale industrial crude oil processing volume was 62.46 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and the growth rate was 1.1 percentage points faster than that in November, with a daily processing volume of 2.015 million tons. From January to December, the processing volume was 737.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. Data source is Zhuochuang Information and Guoxin Futures [24][26] - **INE Crude Oil Registered Warehouse Receipt Inventory and Downstream Refinery Product Inventory**: Data source is INE and Guoxin Futures [28][29] - **US Crude Oil Production and Downstream Refinery Operating Rate**: As of the week ending January 30, the US daily crude oil production was 13.215 million barrels, 481,000 barrels less than the previous week and 263,000 barrels less than the same period last year. The four - week average daily production as of January 30 was 13.599 million barrels, 1.3% higher than the same period last year. Since the beginning of this year, the average daily production has been 13.606 million barrels, 1.3% higher than the same period last year. Data source is Zhuochuang Information and Guoxin Futures [31][33] - **US Crude Oil Rig Count**: As of the week ending February 20, the number of active oil - drilling wells in the US was 409, the same as the previous week and 79 less than the same period last year. Data source is Zhuochuang Information and Guoxin Futures [34][36] - **US Crude Oil Inventory**: As of the week ending February 27, 2026, the total US crude oil inventory including reserves was 854.72 million barrels, an increase of 3.475 million barrels from the previous week; the commercial crude oil inventory was 439.279 million barrels, an increase of 3.475 million barrels; the gasoline inventory was 253.13 million barrels, a decrease of 1.704 million barrels; the distillate inventory was 120.78 million barrels, an increase of 429,000 barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 26.463 million barrels, an increase of 1.564 million barrels. The US oil reserve remained stable at 415.441 million barrels. Data source is WIND and Guoxin Futures [38][40] - **US Crude Oil Inventory Change (EIA)**: Data source is WIND and Guoxin Futures [41][43] - **Saudi Crude Oil Production**: Data source is Zhuochuang Information and Guoxin Futures [44][46] - **OPEC Crude Oil Production**: Data source is Zhuochuang Information and Guoxin Futures [47][48] 3.3 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil Market Outlook**: The US crude oil and distillate inventories increased, while the gasoline inventory decreased last week. As of the week ending February 27, 2026, the total US crude oil inventory including reserves was 854.72 million barrels, an increase of 3.475 million barrels from the previous week; the commercial crude oil inventory was 439.279 million barrels, an increase of 3.475 million barrels; the gasoline inventory was 253.13 million barrels, a decrease of 1.704 million barrels; the distillate inventory was 120.78 million barrels, an increase of 429,000 barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 26.463 million barrels, an increase of 1.564 million barrels. The US oil reserve remained stable at 415.441 million barrels. International oil prices have been rising due to armed conflicts in the Persian Gulf. On March 5, the Iranian military clarified that Iran did not block the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, Iran may mainly prevent US and Israeli - related vessels from passing. The risk of supply interruption in Asia has slightly eased. Saudi Arabia is also considering diverting its crude oil exports around the Strait of Hormuz. Data source is Zhuochuang Information and Guoxin Futures [50][51]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the **energy and oil transportation industry**, particularly in the context of escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, and its implications for oil prices and supply dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Price Expectations**: The Brent crude oil price is expected to rise from a bottom of $60 to $70, with a short-term target range of $80-85 due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply and demand dynamics [1][5][8]. 2. **Iranian Oil Production**: Iran's oil production is approximately 3.3 million barrels per day, accounting for 3% of global supply. Any disruption in this supply could negate the anticipated surplus of 2.55 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026, significantly altering market expectations [1][5]. 3. **OPEC Production Increase**: OPEC has decided to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting April 2026, following a pause in production increases. This decision aligns with prior production trends and reflects a cautious approach to market conditions [4]. 4. **Geopolitical Risks**: The situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of global oil demand and 25% of trade volume, poses a significant risk. Any extreme disruption could lead to oil price spikes similar to those seen during the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][7]. 5. **Natural Gas Market Volatility**: Qatar, which supplies 19% of global LNG, faces supply risks that have already led to a 38% increase in spot prices in Europe and Asia. The volatility in natural gas prices is expected to be higher than that of oil [9][10]. 6. **Oil Transportation Dynamics**: The oil transportation market is shifting from a focus on "sanctioned oil" to a growing demand for "compliant fleets." The exit of shadow fleets and rigid constraints on shipbuilding capacity are driving up second-hand ship prices and charter rates, indicating sustained industry prosperity [1][12][13]. 7. **Impact of Houthi Threats**: The threat from Houthi forces has delayed the expected reopening of the Red Sea for shipping, which, while not leading to significant performance elasticity, provides valuation recovery and high dividend yield opportunities for leading companies in the sector [1][12]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Sentiment**: The current market sentiment reflects a cautious approach to pricing in geopolitical risks, with significant buffers in trade and inventory structures providing a temporary cushion against supply shocks [6]. 2. **Insurance and Operational Costs**: The geopolitical situation has led to increased insurance costs and operational challenges for shipping companies, as many insurers have withdrawn coverage for war risks in affected areas [11]. 3. **Long-term Supply Dynamics**: The likelihood of a long-term supply disruption leading to "no cargo to transport" scenarios is considered low. Instead, ongoing disruptions are expected to support freight rates and demand for compliant shipping [12]. 4. **Collective Market Trends**: The oil transportation market is experiencing a structural shift due to sanctions and OPEC's production adjustments, which may lead to a reversal of the previous demand suppression caused by shadow fleets [12][13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the energy and oil transportation industry.

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have seen significant increases, with Brent crude oil rising by 13% to over $82 per barrel, and WTI crude oil increasing by over 12% to above $75 per barrel, indicating heightened market volatility and supply concerns [5][6]. Group 1: Price Movements - Brent crude oil prices reached a peak of $82 per barrel, while WTI crude oil prices exceeded $75 per barrel during recent trading sessions [6]. - As of the latest data, Brent and WTI crude oil prices have shown a rise of approximately 5% [8]. Group 2: Market Influences - The core variables influencing international oil pricing include the risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent impact on logistics and insurance costs [7]. - Even if conflicts resolve quickly, the risk of short-term disruptions in shipping remains significant, which could lead to increased shipping costs and insurance premiums, thereby elevating risk premiums in the market [7]. Group 3: Future Projections - According to forecasts, the total export volume of crude oil and refined products from Gulf countries through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reach 18.67 million barrels per day by 2025, accounting for 27.1% of global exports [8]. - Price projections for Brent crude oil suggest potential increases to approximately $77, $80-85, and $90-100 per barrel over the next 2 weeks, 1 month, and 2-4 months, respectively [8]. - However, supply-demand dynamics may limit further price increases, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicting a supply surplus of about 3.7 million barrels per day by 2026 [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The Middle East situation has heated up urgently, and the risk premium of international oil prices has soared. OPEC+ continued to suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the long - term supply - demand of crude oil remained in a relatively loose pattern. However, the current warming of the Middle East geopolitical situation is still the main driver of the short - term market, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA slightly raised its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2026 to 10,784 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.57 million barrels per day. OPEC's January 2026 crude oil production was 28.453 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.135 million barrels per day from December 2025; Non - OPEC DoC countries' production was 13.996 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.304 million barrels per day. IEA reported that OPEC's January 2026 production was 29.28 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.41 million barrels per day from December 2025; Non - OPEC DoC countries' production was 14 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.58 million barrels per day [3] - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA slightly raised its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2026 and 2027. The expected demand growth rate in 2026 is 1.21 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.07 million barrels per day compared with the January 2026 forecast. OPEC basically maintained its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2026 and 2027, with an expected growth rate of 1.39 million barrels per day in 2026, an increase of 0.01 million barrels per day compared with the January 2026 forecast. IEA lowered its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2026 to 0.85 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08 million barrels per day compared with the January 2026 forecast [3] - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: As of the week ending February 20, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 15.989 million barrels to 436 million barrels, a 3.81% increase. Cushing crude oil inventories in Oklahoma increased by 0.881 million barrels. In terms of refined oil products, refined oil inventories increased by 0.252 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.011 million barrels, and heating oil inventories decreased by 0.119 million barrels [3] - **Oil - Producing Country Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: On February 26, OPEC+ held a video conference to review the April production policy. Many representatives expected to resume a "moderate and small - step" production increase rhythm, planning to increase production by about 0.137 million barrels per day from April to balance market supply and demand. The CEO of Occidental Petroleum said that U.S. oil production could remain stable when oil prices were in the range of $60 - $65 per barrel, and oil prices needed to reach $70 to drive industry production increases [3] - **Geopolitics (Short - Term)**: On February 26, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that the third - round indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S. had made good progress, and the two sides were close to reaching a consensus in some areas. The technical teams of both sides will hold technical negotiations in Vienna, Austria on March 2. On the same day, Ukrainian negotiation delegation leader Umerov said that the negotiation process continued in Geneva, and bilateral talks with U.S. delegation members had begun [3] - **Macro - Finance (Short - Term)**: The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending February 21 was 212,000, higher than the expected 215,000, and the number of continued jobless claims decreased to 1.83 million. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 96%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by April is 17.3%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 82.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 0.6%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative rate cut by June is 43% [3] - **Investment View**: Bullish. OPEC+ continued to suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the long - term supply - demand of crude oil remained in a relatively loose pattern. However, the current warming of the Middle East geopolitical situation is still the main driver of the short - term market, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see [3] 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: The Middle East situation heated up urgently, and the risk premium of international oil prices soared. This week, oil prices fluctuated sharply. Driven by the escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran and increased concerns about shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices received strong support from geopolitical risk premiums and rose significantly. As of February 27, the closing price of the WTI crude oil main contract was $67.29 per barrel, a weekly increase of $0.98 per barrel (+1.48%); the closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was $73.21 per barrel, a weekly increase of $1.97 per barrel (+2.77%); the closing price of the SC crude oil main contract was 488.4 yuan per barrel, a weekly increase of 27.7 yuan per barrel (+6.01%) [7] - **Month - to - Month Spread & Domestic - Foreign Spread**: The near - month spread weakened slightly, and the domestic - foreign spread declined slightly. The month - to - month spread of refined oil products remained stable, and the forward curve strengthened significantly. The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel, as well as jet fuel, declined [10][16][23][32][35] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In January 2026, global crude oil production decreased slightly. Non - OPEC countries' production increased. U.S. weekly crude oil production was 13.215 million barrels per day. As of the week ending February 20, U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.033 million barrels to 13.702 million barrels per day; crude oil exports decreased by 0.277 million barrels per day to 4.313 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.659 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.135 million barrels per day compared with the previous week. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 21.391 million barrels per day, a 5.38% increase compared with the same period last year. The total number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. for the week ending February 27 was 5,506, with the previous value being 51 [47][57][59][72][82] - **Inventory**: U.S. commercial inventories increased by 15.989 million barrels, and Cushing inventories increased by 0.881 million barrels. Northwest European crude oil inventories increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventories decreased. In China, the inventory data of various refined oil products and ports also showed different changes [83][89] - **Demand**: In the U.S., the implied demand for gasoline and diesel decreased, and the refinery operating rate decreased. In China, the refinery capacity utilization rate rebounded. In the 9th week of 2026 (February 20 - 26), the capacity utilization rate of the atmospheric and vacuum distillation units of independent Chinese refined oil refineries was 60.63%, a 0.62 - percentage - point increase compared with the previous week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 51.69%, a 1.11% increase compared with the previous week and an 8.52% increase compared with the same period last year [107][118] - **Profit of Chinese Refineries**: The gross profit of major refineries decreased, and the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel showed corresponding changes [129] - **Macro - Finance**: U.S. Treasury yields declined, and the U.S. dollar index fell [142] - **CFTC Positioning**: The speculative net long position of WTI crude oil increased [151]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, as the US and Iran conducted the third round of indirect negotiations, geopolitical risks in the Middle East gradually cooled down, and crude oil gave back some of its premium. Combined with the end of the peak winter heating demand season in the Northern Hemisphere, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a trend of rising and then giving back some gains, with a strong oscillation at a high level. The weekly cumulative increase of the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 reached 6.01% to 488.4 yuan per barrel [4][13][14]. - As the US and Israel launched military attacks on Iran, geopolitical risks in the Middle East quickly heated up. Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and energy supplies such as crude oil and natural gas could not be transported out of the Middle East. Crude oil premiums may rise significantly. Although OPEC+ oil - producing countries announced that they would resume production increases in the second quarter, short - term geopolitical factors outweighed the weak supply - demand fundamentals of crude oil. Driven by positive factors, international crude oil futures prices rose sharply, which may drive domestic crude oil futures to open sharply higher and run strongly on Monday. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a strong trend in the future. Be vigilant about the US announcing the release of strategic crude oil reserves to stabilize international crude oil prices [5][67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **1.1 Spot prices rose significantly, and the basis discount slightly converged**: As of the week ending February 27, 2026, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was 67.74 US dollars per barrel, equivalent to 469.0 yuan per barrel, a week - on - week increase of 28.3 yuan per barrel. The main domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 closed at 488.4 yuan per barrel, a week - on - week increase of 27.7 yuan per barrel. The discount degree slightly converged, and the basis between them was 19.5 yuan per barrel [8]. - **1.2 Geopolitical risks weakened, and crude oil gave back its premium**: After the holiday, as the US and Iran conducted the third round of indirect negotiations, geopolitical risks in the Middle East gradually cooled down, and crude oil gave back some of its premium. Combined with the end of the peak winter heating demand season in the Northern Hemisphere, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a trend of rising and then giving back some gains, with a strong oscillation at a high level. The weekly cumulative increase of the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 reached 6.01% to 488.4 yuan per barrel [13][14]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Maintained an Excess Expectation, and the Production Increase Rhythm Slowed Down - **2.1 OPEC+ production increase rhythm slowed down, and the supply excess expectation remained**: In April 2023, eight countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, etc. announced a voluntary production cut of about 1.65 million barrels per day of crude oil, and in November 2023, they announced an additional voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day of crude oil. These two production cut measures were extended many times. However, during this period, the crude oil production of countries such as the US and Canada increased, causing OPEC to lose some market share. Since the second quarter of 2025, eight major OPEC+ oil - producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia launched a systematic and phased production increase policy, shifting their production strategy from "production cut to maintain prices" in the past two years to "production increase to stabilize the market and compete for market share". The actual production of OPEC showed that the strong production increase expectation was fulfilled. In December 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 28.564 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 105,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.874 million barrels per day [23][24][25]. - **2.2 Non - OPEC oil - producing countries' production capacity maintained a high level**: The capacity expansion of non - OPEC+ countries further exacerbated the supply excess. The production of South American oil - producing countries represented by Brazil and Guyana continued to rise, and US shale oil showed amazing resilience. As of the week ending February 20, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 409, with a week - on - week increase of 0 and a year - on - year decrease of 79. As of the week ending February 20, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the US was 13.702 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 33,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 200,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [37]. - **2.3 The Northern Hemisphere's crude oil demand will enter the off - season**: As the world's largest crude oil consumer, the US has obvious seasonal changes in crude oil demand. After mid - February, the crude oil consumption in the Northern Hemisphere will enter the off - season, the demand factor will weaken, and the inventory will change from destocking to stockpiling. EIA and IEA both predicted an oversupply of global oil in the future, and the demand growth rate in the next two years will be less than half of that in 2023. The oil consumption in India, which was expected to be the growth point of demand, declined in the first seven months of 2025 [39][40][41]. - **2.4 US crude oil inventory increased significantly, and refinery operating rates decreased slightly**: As of the week ending February 20, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 435.8 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 15.989 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 5.643 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 24.899 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 881,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, unchanged week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 88.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points [42]. - **2.5 China's crude oil imports increased slightly in 2025**: In 2025, China's crude oil market showed the characteristics of "record - high imports, stable production growth, and processing transformation". In December 2025, China's crude oil imports reached 55.97 million tons (13.18 million barrels per day), a year - on - year increase of 0.2%; the cumulative crude oil imports in 2025 reached 577.73 million tons (11.55 million barrels per day), a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In December 2025, China's crude oil production remained stable, and the crude oil processing speeded up. In 2026, China's crude oil consumption will enter a new stage of "stable total volume and optimized structure", with both support and restraint factors. The import volume will remain at a high level, and the consumption structure will be optimized [46][47][49]. 3.3 Global Geopolitical Conflicts Broke Out in Multiple Areas, and Crude Oil Premiums Increased - During the Spring Festival in 2026, the Middle East was in a high - risk balance of "talking and fighting at the same time". The core of the crisis was the extreme game between the US and Iran around the nuclear issue and regional dominance. The Red Sea shipping crisis resonated with the US - Iran confrontation, and the intervention of major - power games made the Middle East crisis more global. This geopolitical storm has directly pushed up international oil prices, and if the situation further escalates, oil prices may break through $100 per barrel [56][57][58]. 3.4 The Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Increased Significantly Week - on - Week - Since February 2026, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile and strong trend, and the market's long - making power has also increased. As of February 17, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 141,343 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 23,529 contracts and a significant increase of 68,529 contracts compared with the January average of 72,814 contracts, with an increase of 94.12%. As of February 17, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 250,016 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 526 contracts and a significant increase of 65,570 contracts compared with the January average of 184,446 contracts, with an increase of 35.55% [60]. 3.5 Conclusion - As the US and Israel launched military attacks on Iran, geopolitical risks in the Middle East quickly heated up. Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and crude oil premiums may rise significantly. Although OPEC+ oil - producing countries announced that they would resume production increases in the second quarter, short - term geopolitical factors outweighed the weak supply - demand fundamentals of crude oil. Driven by positive factors, international crude oil futures prices rose sharply, which may drive domestic crude oil futures to open sharply higher and run strongly on Monday. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a strong trend in the future. Be vigilant about the US announcing the release of strategic crude oil reserves to stabilize international crude oil prices [67].