Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report suggests a light - position trial long for both single - side and monthly spread trading in crude oil [1]. 2. Core View The report analyzes the current situation of the international crude oil market from multiple aspects including benchmark prices, refined oil markets, cross - regional spreads, trade dynamics, events, and other news, aiming to provide a basis for investment decisions. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Benchmark Crude Oil Price Dynamics - Dubai (November) price is 71.525 with a daily change of - 0.43, affected by weak Asian demand and OPEC + production increase expectations [2]. - Brent (November) price is 67.51 with a daily change of 1.62, supported by North Sea oilfield maintenance but limited by high inventory [2]. - WTI (October) price is 63.97 with a daily change of 1.32, supported by record - high US crude oil exports and low Cushing inventory [2]. - Urals (CIF Augusta) price is 64.47 with a daily change of 0.07, with Russia's seaborne exports recovering but facing EU sanctions risks and maintaining a discount [2]. 3.2 Refined Oil Market Price and Dynamics - Gasoline (RBOB) has a crack spread of 4.58, with summer driving season demand still strong but ethanol blending cost rising to compress profits [2]. - Diesel (ULSD) has a crack spread of 5.43, driven by global industrial activity recovery and low - sulfur marine fuel demand [2]. - Fuel oil has a crack spread of - 2.52, with high - sulfur oil inventory积压 due to IMO2025新规 expectations [2]. 3.3 Cross - Regional Comparison - The Brent - Dubai spread is 4.08 - 4.10, with a weekly change of 0.27 and a monthly change of 0.08, affected by the approaching closure of the East - West arbitrage window and light oil surplus in the Atlantic Basin [4]. - The WTI MEH - Brent spread is - 1.45, with a weekly change of - 0.18 and a monthly change of - 0.47, due to US shale oil production increase and European refinery autumn maintenance [4]. - The Urals - Dubai spread is - 7.05, with a weekly change of 0.25 and a monthly change of 0.93, reflecting Asian buyers' procurement strategy adjustment [4]. 3.4 Key Crude Oil Trade Dynamics - The US GC - China trade volume is 590 MB/D with an arbitrage space of - 7.89, due to exhausted quotas of Chinese private refineries and high VLCC freight rates [4]. - The Middle East - Singapore trade volume is 814 MB/D with an arbitrage space of - 2.56, as Saudi OSP official prices have been raised for three consecutive months and Asian buyers turn to West African crude oil [4]. - The North Sea - Mediterranean trade volume is 254 MB/D with an arbitrage space of 1.37, as Italian refineries rush to buy light low - sulfur crude oil for new environmental regulations [4]. 3.5突发事件或潜在影响因素 - For the Middle East - China route, VLCC freight is 12.08 with a weekly change of - 0.15, affected by new ship deliveries and Suez Canal toll increase expectations [5]. - For the US GC - Europe route, Aframax freight is 8.63 with a weekly change of 0.22, due to pre - lease activities during the US Gulf hurricane season and fluctuating marine fuel prices [5]. - For the North Sea - Mediterranean route, Suezmax freight is 5.28 with a weekly change of - 0.07, as North African refinery maintenance reduces demand and shipowners adjust capacity deployment [5]. 3.6 Other Market News - US initial jobless claims rose to the highest level since June, with an increase of 8000 to 237,000 in the week ending August 30 [7]. - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak said the OPEC + agreement implementation level was 102% from January to August [7]. - OPEC's oil production in August increased by 360,000 barrels per day to 2.784 million barrels per day [7]. - US crude oil exports increased by 74,000 barrels per day to 3.884 million barrels per day in the week ending August 29, while domestic production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.423 million barrels per day [7]. - US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 2.415 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a 0.58% increase in the week ending August 29 [7]. - US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 509,000 barrels to 404.7 million barrels, a 0.13% increase in the week ending August 29 [7]. - US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.742 million barrels per day in the week ending August 29, an increase of 508,000 barrels per day from the previous week [7]. - US Cushing crude oil inventory was 1.59 million barrels in the week ending August 29, compared with - 838,000 barrels in the previous week [7].