Core Viewpoint - The oil market is currently in a phase of balance between bulls and bears, with recent trading days showing reduced volatility due to geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding the U.S. military actions in the Middle East and the situation in Iran [4][19]. Market Dynamics - On January 13, speculative investors increased net long positions in Brent crude oil by 85,496 contracts, bringing the total to 208,461 contracts, indicating a shift from a previously dominant bearish sentiment to a more balanced market [4][19]. - The recent geopolitical tensions have led to a partial retreat of the geopolitical premium in oil prices, with market participants closely monitoring developments in Iran [4][19]. Price Movements - As of the latest trading session, WTI crude oil futures closed at $59.43 per barrel, up by $0.09 (0.15%), while Brent crude oil futures fell by $0.19 (0.3%) to $63.94 per barrel [6][21]. - The INE crude oil futures decreased by 0.52%, closing at 440.30 yuan [6][21]. Recent Developments - Russia's oil and gas budget revenues are projected to decline by 46% in January 2025 compared to the previous year, primarily due to falling oil prices and the appreciation of the ruble, with expected revenues dropping to approximately 420 billion rubles (about $54.1 billion) [7][22]. - Azerbaijan's oil exports through the BTC pipeline are expected to decrease by 7.8% in 2025, primarily due to issues with contaminated crude oil [8][23]. Production and Processing - China's crude oil processing volume in December reached 62.46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with an average daily processing volume of 2.015 million tons [10][25]. - In December, China's crude oil imports were 55.97 million tons, up 17.4% year-on-year, while total imports for the year reached 577.73 million tons, a 4.4% increase [10][25][26].