中化新网讯 近日，多数投资银行与美国能源信息署(EIA)预测，受持续供过于求影响，2026年平均油价 将低于每桶60美元，主因全球需求增长疲软及OPEC+与非OPEC+产油国供应增加。 EIA最新短期能源展望预计，2026年全球石油库存持续上升，布伦特原油一季度均价54美元、全年55美 元，较上月上调3美元，因中国战略储备采购及俄石油制裁加码，但市场基本面仍令其对明年油价持悲 观态度。 Macquarie集团预计明年油价走低，但对俄制裁、委内瑞拉局势及美国冬季天气寒冷或减缓油价跌幅， OPEC+或需在2026年下半年减产稳市。ABN AMRO银行指出，原油需求疲软与供应增加导致供过于 求，中国储备采购和地缘不确定性虽未使油价大跌，但过剩将贯穿2026年，预计布伦特油价一季度58美 元，年中52美元，年底50美元，全年均值55美元。SEB银行认为油价下行趋势明显，委内瑞拉局势紧张 带来的地缘溢价难抵供应增加与供过于求的看跌背景。 11月底路透社调查显示，供过于求是2026年原油市场关键，美国基准油价或低于60美元，WTI均价59美 元，布伦特62.23美元(低于10月63.15美元)，高盛更预计WTI均价53美 ...

Group 1 - The recent volatility in the international crude oil futures market is driven by geopolitical factors in the Middle East, leading to a significant price increase followed by a sharp decline as tensions eased [1][2] - Following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, WTI and ICE Brent crude futures reached around $80, marking a new high since January, with concerns over potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route [2] - The likelihood of Iran completely blocking the Strait of Hormuz is considered low due to military, economic, and public pressure factors, despite the Strait handling approximately 20 million barrels of oil transport daily [2] Group 2 - The announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, accepted by Iran, led to a dramatic reversal in oil prices, with ICE Brent crude dropping by 8% and WTI crude falling by 9%, erasing nearly all gains from the previous two weeks [3] - Following the ceasefire, oil prices continued to fluctuate at lower levels, with WTI and ICE Brent futures dropping over 2% to around $67 [3] - OPEC+ has announced production increases for three consecutive months, extending a voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day until March 2025, despite actual production increases in April and May exceeding planned levels [3]