Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - Recent domestic thermal coal prices have surged unexpectedly, with the Qinhuangdao Port Q5500 thermal coal price reaching 748 RMB/ton as of October 17, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 43 RMB/ton [1][11] - Supply constraints are anticipated due to ongoing production checks and adverse weather conditions affecting key production areas, leading to a tightening supply outlook [1][16] - The target price for thermal coal has been raised to 750-800 RMB/ton, supported by expectations of increased demand due to early winter heating and potential cold winter conditions [4][27] Summary by Sections Section 1: Thermal Coal Price Surge - The price of thermal coal has exceeded expectations, with significant increases in both port and production area prices, driven by supply-side constraints and increased demand from power plants [1][11][20] Section 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic coal production has been impacted by heavy rainfall and safety inspections, leading to a decrease in output, while demand remains stable due to seasonal factors and early heating needs [1][16][25] - The import volume of coal has seen a slight increase, but rising shipping costs and foreign coal price hikes may limit future imports [2][20] Section 3: Seasonal Demand and Inventory Levels - Despite being a traditional off-peak season for electricity consumption, demand has remained strong due to weather conditions and early heating requirements, resulting in a slight decrease in inventory levels at power plants and ports compared to the previous year [3][21][25]