1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 0.7% to 84.6% week - on - week; the downstream alumina开工率 increased by 0.10% to 82.58%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 0.39% to 89.36%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 remained stable at 52.57%. The national liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 4.93% to 52.54 tons, with production enterprises in North China actively accumulating inventory due to bullish expectations. The prices of caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong increased, and the chlor - alkali profit increased to 323 yuan/ton. The increase in 50 - alkali exports boosted the spot market atmosphere, but due to the strong liquid chlorine price and the repair of chlor - alkali profit, there were few planned maintenance devices in April, and the improvement of domestic supply - demand was limited. The daily range of SH2605 is expected to be around 2200 - 2350 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan; the futures holding volume was 201,115 hands, an increase of 11,137 hands; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was 3,254 hands, an increase of 1,960 hands; the futures trading volume was 427,939 hands, an increase of 106,468 hands. The closing price of the January contract was 2,427 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 737 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,303 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was - 37 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 222.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The price of steam coal was 644 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,180 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 20th to March 26th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.7%. From March 21st to 27th, the alumina开工率 increased by 0.10% to 82.58%; from March 20th to 26th, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 0.39% to 89.36%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 remained stable at 52.57%. As of March 26th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 525,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 4.93% and a year - on - year increase of 14.28%. The SH2605 contract fell 4.13% to close at 2,250 yuan/ton. Market expectations are that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East will ease. The average weekly profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong from March 20th to March 26th was 323 yuan/ton [2]

Price Index Trends - The Business Price Index (BPI) rose significantly in March, reaching 1103 points, a month-on-month increase of 16.4% compared to the end of February[3] - The energy index increased by 25.3%, while the chemical index surged by 32.4%, but the non-ferrous index fell by 9.5% month-on-month[4] Commodity Price Movements - In the week of March 16-20, five energy commodities saw price increases of over 5%, accounting for 35.7% of the monitored items[4] - The average price of coal in the Bohai Rim region increased by 1.7%, while the chemical price index surged by 33.8% month-on-month[5] Real Estate Market - As of March 23, the second-hand housing price indices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 1.0%, 1.8%, 1.4%, and 0.8% respectively[5] - The second-hand housing prices in these cities have seen significant highs over the past year, with peaks recorded at 159.44, 192.67, 181.71, and 251.13 points[6] Emerging Industries - The photovoltaic industry composite index fell by 13.2% in March, with significant declines in prices for battery cells and polysilicon[6] - Lithium carbonate futures prices decreased by 4.9% month-on-month, while DRAM spot prices fell between 5.3% and 8.9%[9] Shipping and Logistics - The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) rose by 9.0% in the fourth week of March, with significant increases in shipping rates to Los Angeles and New York[7] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased by 5.1% month-on-month, indicating a mixed outlook for shipping costs[8] Food Prices - The average wholesale price of pork fell by 12.7% in March, while key vegetable prices dropped by 10.9%[9] - The price index for non-food items, represented by the ICPI, decreased slightly to 99.67, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.2%[10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the report; it mainly offers various commodity and index-related data, including basis, spreads, and ratios 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from March 25 to March 31, 2026, shows values such as -45.4, -41.4, -40.4, -40.4, and -46.4 respectively; the spreads between different contract months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) are all 0.0 [2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt have corresponding basis and ratio data from March 25 to March 31, 2026 [5] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for various chemical products (natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP, etc.) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are provided; also includes spread data between different contract months and cross - product spread data [7] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for black metals (rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are presented; spread data between different contract months and cross - product ratio data are also included [11] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are provided [21] 3.4.2 London Market - LME data for non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on March 31, 2026, including LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss [27] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for agricultural products (soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc.) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are provided; spread data between different contract months and cross - product ratio data are also included [34] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for stock index futures (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are presented; spread data between different contract months are also included [45]

Group 1: Coal Price Information - The latest price of Qinhuangdao 5500 is 760.0, with a daily change of -1.0, a weekly change of 11.0, a monthly change of 9.0, and an annual change of 85.0 [1] - The latest price of Qinhuangdao 5000 is 680.0, with a daily change of -1.0, a weekly change of 12.0, a monthly change of 6.0, and an annual change of 90.0 [1] - The latest price of Guangzhou Port 5500 is 835.0, with a daily change of 0.0, a weekly change of 10.0, a monthly change of 20.0, and an annual change of 45.0 [1] - The latest price of Ordos 5500 is 555.0, with a daily change of 0.0, a weekly change of 15.0, a monthly change of 45.0, and an annual change of 100.0 [1] - The latest price of Datong 5500 is 610.0, with a daily change of 0.0, a weekly change of 15.0, a monthly change of 45.0, and an annual change of 90.0 [1] - The latest price of Yulin 6000 is 680.0, with a daily change of -20.0, a weekly change of -15.0, a monthly change of 5.0, and an annual change of 68.0 [1] - The latest price of Yulin 6200 is 730.0, with a daily change of -20.0, a weekly change of -20.0, a monthly change of -15.0, and an annual change of 90.0 [1] Group 2: Terminal and Inventory Information - The available days for 25 provincial terminals is 21.0, with a daily change of 0.0, a weekly change of 0.0, a monthly change of -2.6, and an annual change of -2.2 [1] - The coal supply for 25 provincial terminals is 498.8, with a daily change of 1.1, a weekly change of 10.8, a monthly change of 118.9, and an annual change of -10.5 [1] - The northern port inventory is 2619.0, with a daily change of 9.0, a weekly change of -8.0, a monthly change of 302.3, and an annual change of -123.0 [1] - The number of ships at northern anchorages is 103.0, with a daily change of -1.0, a weekly change of 18.0, a monthly change of 8.0, and an annual change of 46.0 [1] - The northern port inflow volume is 173.9, with a daily change of -11.6, a weekly change of -17.7, a monthly change of 1.3, and an annual change of 3.1 [1] - The northern port throughput is 201.1, with a daily change of 3.6, a weekly change of 57.5, a monthly change of 34.4, and an annual change of 7.4 [1] - The daily consumption of 25 provincial terminals is 513.0, with a daily change of -2.4, a weekly change of -10.2, a monthly change of 9.3, and an annual change of 36.4 [1] - The inventory of 25 provincial terminals is 10781.3, with a daily change of -30.3, a weekly change of -208.4, a monthly change of -1125.8, and an annual change of -301.1 [1] Group 3: Shipping Index and Freight Information - The CBCFI shipping index is 1044.8, with a daily change of -22.8, a weekly change of -114.1, a monthly change of 366.8, and an annual change of 293.1 [1] - The freight from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai (4 - 5 DWT) is 42.0, with a daily change of -1.4, a weekly change of -6.3, a monthly change of 17.1, and an annual change of 13.3 [1] - The freight from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou (5 - 6 DWT) is 63.4, with a daily change of -0.7, a weekly change of -3.4, a monthly change of 20.0, and an annual change of 17.8 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has changed due to the willingness of the US and Iran to end the war. Precious metals have risen significantly, and the risk - preference of the market has rebounded. However, the negotiation details may still fluctuate [1][12]. - The China's official manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations, and the domestic economic sentiment has improved. The bond market is expected to be volatile [22][23][24]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the price of crude oil has declined due to the expected end of the war; the price of some agricultural products and metals is affected by supply and demand and other factors [5][36][44] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Schmid warns that inflation is a real risk and may stagnate near 3%. The US and Iran's willingness to end the war has reversed the market trading logic. Gold prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out, and then gradually rise with fluctuations [10][12] - Investment advice: It is expected that precious metals will oscillate and rise, but the trend will be affected by the development of the US - Iran situation [12] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China and Pakistan put forward five initiatives to restore peace and stability in the Gulf and the Middle East. The new regulations on the funds of domestic enterprises listed overseas have been implemented, which improves the convenience of cross - border financing. The global risk assets have rebounded, and the A - share market may gradually repair [13][14][16] - Investment advice: Hold a low - position long position in the stock index and wait and see [17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of job vacancies in the US in February decreased, and the labor market activity is cooling. Although the US and Iran have expressed their willingness to end the war, the military operations have expanded, and the negotiation process may be tortuous. The volatility of the US stock market remains high [18][20] - Investment advice: Wait for a clearer right - hand side signal due to high short - term volatility [21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations, indicating an improvement in the domestic economic sentiment. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and investors should be cautious when chasing up [22][23][25] - Investment advice: The bond market is in a volatile period, and be cautious when chasing up [25] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable on March 31. The price of coal in the northern port has gradually weakened. Although it is in the off - season, the long - term upward risk of coal prices still exists due to overseas energy shortages [26] - Investment advice: Coal prices may slow down in the short term but have an upward risk in the long term [27] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - An Indian mining company plans to invest in a Brazilian iron ore project. The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state. The downstream acceptance of ore prices is not high, but the increase in marginal costs limits the downward space [28] - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to remain weak [29] 3.2.3 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The spot prices of coking coal in ports have mostly been lowered. The decline of the futures price is mainly due to the fall in oil prices. The overall supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to changes in demand [30] - Investment advice: The futures price is affected by energy issues in the short term. Pay attention to demand changes [31] 3.2.4 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers in March was above the boom - bust line. The steel price has declined slightly due to the easing of the Middle East situation, and it is expected to remain in a volatile pattern [32] - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy and pay attention to the Middle East situation and energy prices [33] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean exports in March were estimated at 15.86 million tons. The US soybean planting intention was lower than expected, but the quarterly inventory was higher than expected. The domestic soybean crushing volume in March increased significantly [34][35][36] - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to remain volatile. Pay attention to the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the arrival of Brazilian soybeans [36] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory in the four northern ports increased, and the downstream demand has support. Policy auctions and purchases provide support for the corn price. The corn price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern [37][38][39] - Investment advice: Consider selling call options as the corn price is in a high - level volatile pattern [39] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Muyuan's net profit in 2025 decreased by 16.45%. The current hog market is in a weak situation, with high supply pressure and weak demand. The short - term strategy is to short on rebounds, and the long - term strategy is to consider going long on far - month contracts [40][41][42] - Investment advice: Short on rebounds for the near - month contracts and consider going long on far - month contracts with caution [42] 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Some lithium salt projects are in progress. The lithium carbonate price has fallen. The supply disturbance has not been realized, and the demand is growing. The long - term view is supported by the new energy substitution narrative. It is recommended to go long on dips [43][44][45] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips, but beware of liquidity risks [45] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium have fluctuated. The market is mainly following the trend of precious metals. Due to geopolitical risks and market liquidity issues, it is recommended to wait and see [46][47] - Investment advice: Wait and see on the single - side trading; pay attention to arbitrage opportunities in the month - spread and take profits on the long platinum - palladium ratio strategy [47] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price is in a low - level volatile state. The supply and demand situation and geopolitical factors affect the price. It is recommended to wait and see and protect long positions near the regeneration cost line [48][49][50] - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips on the right - hand side; wait and see on arbitrage [50] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price is oscillating. Geopolitical risks and market liquidity issues exist. It is recommended to wait and see and take profits on long positions [53] - Investment advice: Wait and see on the single - side trading and arbitrage [53] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Some copper - related companies have investment and profit - increasing plans. The copper price is affected by the Middle East situation and inventory changes. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern [54][55][56] - Investment advice: Wait and see on short - term single - side trading; pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [57] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of tin is gradually becoming more relaxed, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the supply from major producing areas and demand growth [58][59] - Investment advice: The tin price will be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and pay attention to supply and demand factors [59] 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's oil production in March decreased significantly. The oil price has fallen due to the expected end of the war. Short - term attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [60][62] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the Middle East situation, and the oil price will remain highly volatile [63] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Saudi Aramco's April CP for LPG has increased. The price of LPG has回调 due to the easing of geopolitical risks. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation [64] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical situation [65] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The operating rate of asphalt refineries in April is expected to decline. The asphalt price is rising slowly, and the supply is short. The downstream demand is affected by high prices and the rainy season [65] - Investment advice: The asphalt price is difficult to decline in the short term [66] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Trump is willing to end the war with Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The styrene price has fallen. The short - term de - stocking trend remains unchanged, and the general direction is to go long on dips [67][68][69] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the potential ground - war expectation and go long on dips in the long - run [69]

Core Viewpoint - China Coal Energy reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2025, with total revenue at 148.06 billion yuan, down 21.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 17.88 billion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company achieved revenue of 37.47 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7% quarter-on-quarter, and net profit of 5.40 billion yuan, up 13.0% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The basic earnings per share for 2025 was 1.35 yuan, a decrease of 6.9% year-on-year, with a weighted average return on equity of 11.43%, down 1.55 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Coal Business - In 2025, the company's self-produced coal price decreased to 485 yuan per ton, down 13.6% year-on-year, while the cost of self-produced coal was 251.5 yuan per ton, a reduction of 30.2 yuan per ton or 10.7% year-on-year [2] - The total coal production for 2025 was 135.10 million tons, down 1.8% year-on-year, and coal sales were 255.86 million tons, down 10.2% year-on-year [1][2] Group 3: Chemical Business - In 2025, the company reported a gross profit margin increase for urea and methanol, with urea sales at 2.423 million tons, up 18.9% year-on-year, and a gross profit of 455 yuan per ton, an increase of 16.37% year-on-year [3] - The sales volume of polyethylene and polypropylene was 701,000 tons and 680,000 tons, down 9.5% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively, with significant declines in gross profit margins [3][4] Group 4: Dividend and Future Outlook - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 0.383 yuan per share for 2025, corresponding to a dividend yield of 2.1% for A shares and 2.4% for H shares [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2026-2028 are projected at 161.3 billion yuan, 170.2 billion yuan, and 179.1 billion yuan, with net profits expected to grow by 20%, 10%, and 8% respectively [5]

Robotics - The core advancement in Xiaomi's robotic dexterous hand includes a tactile coverage area of 8200 square millimeters, enhancing full palm perception and efficient data collection [2][8] - The demand for high-performance actuators is expected to surge due to the public unveiling of the "machine wolf" combat training footage, indicating a shift towards more complex operational scenarios [9] - The humanoid robotics industry is anticipated to transition from small-scale validation to a new phase of growth, with significant attention on upstream components and main manufacturers [9][10] Consumer Electronics - Xtep International reported a revenue of 14.15 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with a net profit of 1.37 billion yuan, up 10.8% [13][14] - The company maintains a strong dividend policy with a payout ratio exceeding 50%, indicating robust shareholder returns [14][15] - The professional sports segment, including brands like Saucony and Maile, saw a revenue increase of 30.8%, highlighting a successful high-end positioning strategy [15][16] Food and Beverage - Weilian Meiwai achieved a revenue of 7.224 billion yuan in 2025, marking a 15.3% year-on-year growth, with a net profit increase of 33.4% [18][19] - The company’s vegetable products segment, particularly the konjac category, has driven significant growth, with a notable increase in offline distribution efficiency [19][20] - The company is exploring overseas markets, with international revenue growing by 48% in 2025, indicating potential for further expansion [19][20] New Consumption - Ruoyuchen reported a total revenue of 3.432 billion yuan in 2025, a remarkable growth of 94.35%, with self-owned brands contributing significantly to this increase [21][22] - The self-owned brand segment achieved a revenue of 1.813 billion yuan, up 261.94%, underscoring its role as a key growth driver [22][23] - The brand management and e-commerce operations have shown strong development, with revenue contributions of 895 million yuan and 723 million yuan, respectively [23][24] Utilities and Environmental Protection - China Coal Energy reported a revenue of 148.06 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 21.8%, with a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, down 7.3% [26][27] - The company has focused on cost reduction strategies to mitigate the impact of declining coal prices, achieving a unit sales cost of 252 yuan per ton, down 10.7% year-on-year [27][28] - The company anticipates a rebound in coal prices and chemical product prices in 2026, which could enhance profitability [28][30] Transportation - COSCO Shipping Special reported a revenue of 23.211 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 38.32%, with a net profit of 1.78 billion yuan, up 16.29% [33][34] - The multi-purpose vessel segment remains a stable revenue source, contributing approximately 57.17% of total revenue, with new vessel acquisitions expected to drive further growth [34][35] - The company plans to expand its fleet significantly, with expectations to increase its total cargo volume to over 31 million tons by 2026 [35][36] Pharmaceuticals - WuXi XDC, a leading CRDMO in the bioconjugate drug sector, reported a revenue of 5.944 billion yuan for 2025, a 46.7% increase, with a net profit margin improvement [38] - The company has seen a significant rise in its order backlog, with a total of 252 projects, indicating strong future growth potential [38]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector has emerged as a leading investment opportunity in 2023, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that threaten global oil and gas supply chains, highlighting coal's strategic value as an alternative energy source [3][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - The coal sector has achieved a remarkable 23.1% increase in value this year, making it the top-performing sector among 31 industries tracked by Shenwan Hongyuan [4][3]. - Since the escalation of conflicts, coal prices have risen by 8.7%, reflecting the market's heightened focus on energy security [3][4]. Group 2: Price Dynamics and Comparisons - The current price of thermal coal is approximately 730 RMB per ton, with potential for further increases if oil and gas prices remain high, suggesting a theoretical coal price close to 1000 RMB per ton based on current oil and gas price ratios [7][10]. - The oil-coal price ratio has increased from 2.0 to 2.3, indicating a shift in market dynamics favoring coal as a more competitive energy source [6][10]. Group 3: Subsector Analysis - The coal sector can be divided into three sub-industries: thermal coal, coking coal, and coke, each exhibiting different market behaviors [8]. - Thermal coal is currently under pressure due to seasonal demand fluctuations, while coking coal faces challenges from increased supply without significant demand improvements [11][12]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The Guotai Coal ETF (515220.SH) has shown impressive performance, with a net value increase of 198% since its inception in January 2020, and a year-to-date increase of over 24% [15][19]. - The top ten holdings in the ETF include major coal companies, with significant price increases observed in stocks like Yanzhou Coal and China Shenhua Energy [19][20]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to sustain upward momentum in the coal sector, particularly benefiting coal chemical industries and thermal coal, while coking coal remains a mixed opportunity [12][24]. - Long-term pricing will depend on the fundamental supply-demand balance within the industry, as well as the recovery of corporate profitability [24].

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal are all "oscillating" [2][4][7] Group 2: Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt, and the black commodity sector is oscillating. Steel prices are affected by both macro and micro factors and are expected to oscillate in the short term. Iron ore prices are also oscillating, with short - term supply decreasing and demand increasing, but high inventory restricts price increases. Coking coal and coke prices are oscillating with strong cost support. Thermal coal prices are oscillating weakly due to a decline in trading sentiment [1][3][5][8] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3139 yuan/ton and 3308 yuan/ton respectively. The spot market has average trading volume, with 104200 tons of building materials traded. The basis is generally stable [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building material supply - demand is seasonally improving, with inventory turning from increasing to decreasing and strong cost support from energy price increases. However, weak demand and high inventory restrict price increases. Plate production and sales have improved significantly, but high inventory suppresses prices. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral strategy is to oscillate; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore oscillated. The main 2505 contract closed at 813 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. Spot prices in Tangshan fluctuated slightly, with less trading. National main port iron ore trading volume was 591000 tons, down 11.13% from the previous day, while forward - looking spot trading volume was 830000 tons, up 135.13% [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Global iron ore shipments have dropped significantly, with a large decline in Australian shipments and a slight increase in Brazilian shipments. Short - term shipments are decreasing, while iron water production is rising, and demand is improving. High inventory still restricts prices. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increase shipping costs, and concerns about high - grade ore for far - month deliveries support prices. In the long term, port liquidity release may impact prices [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral strategy is to oscillate; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated at high levels. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal dropped to 1120 - 1150 yuan/ton. Coal prices are relatively strong, and the first round of coke price increases has been accepted by mainstream steel mills and is expected to be fully implemented on April 1 [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Coking coal supply is relatively loose, with domestic coal mines resuming production quickly and high - level production expected in the short term. Affected by Middle East geopolitics, prices are oscillating strongly. Coke production enthusiasm is rising, supply is relatively stable, and demand is driven by the increase in iron water production. Prices are oscillating strongly following coking coal and still have room for price increases [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke strategies are to oscillate; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices stopped rising and fell. In the port area, market sentiment weakened, with upstream prices slightly decreasing and downstream demand weak. Import coal demand is increasing due to improved cost - effectiveness [8] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Downstream demand is good, and coal prices are oscillating widely. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment of thermal coal has weakened, and there is short - term callback pressure [1] - The short - term port price of thermal coal is expected to decline, but the downward space is limited due to the high price of imported coal [2] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Coal Prices**: In terms of origin prices, the price of Shanxi Datong 5500 is 617.0 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period, 70.0 yuan higher than last year); Inner Mongolia Ordos 5500 is 572.0 yuan/ton (-22.0 yuan compared to the previous period, 86.0 yuan higher than last year); Shaanxi Yulin 5800 is 645.0 yuan/ton (-6.0 yuan compared to the previous period, 113.0 yuan higher than last year). For port prices, the Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 is 761.0 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period, 96.0 yuan higher than last year); Q5000 is 680.0 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period, 88.0 yuan higher than last year); Q4500 is 601.0 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period, 75.0 yuan higher than last year). Overseas prices: Indonesia FOB Q3800 is 60.0 dollars/ton (unchanged from the previous period, 10.0 dollars higher than last year); Australia FOB Q5500 is 86.3 dollars/ton (2.7 dollars higher than the previous period, 15.3 dollars higher than last year). The March long - term agreement price for port Q5500 is 682.0 yuan/ton (2.0 yuan higher than the previous period, 4.0 yuan lower than last year); Shanxi Q5500 is 519.0 yuan/ton (2.0 yuan higher than the previous period); Shaanxi Q5500 is 462.0 yuan/ton (1.0 yuan higher than the previous period); Mengxi Q5500 is 433.0 yuan/ton (2.0 yuan higher than the previous period) [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal at the northern ports) is - 1 [2] 3. Macro and Industry News - On March 30, the sentiment in the port market weakened. Upstream quotations were slightly lowered, downstream demand was weak, and counter - offers and price pressure were obvious, with overall trading being sluggish. Some market participants believe that due to the high inventory at the northern ports, weak downstream demand, combined with the decline in shipping costs and the prices of some coal mines, the willingness of traders to hold up prices has weakened, and quotations have declined. However, the high price of imported coal provides some support for domestic trade [2] - From January to February 2026, the national raw coal output was 76,289 million tons, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The average daily output from January to February was 1,293 million tons, a decrease of 117 million tons compared to the previous period and a decrease of 4 million tons compared to the same period last year [2]