Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests taking a moderate position of buying on dips [1] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the copper market remain tight. Domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and smelter maintenance, which will support the upward movement of copper prices. With the approaching double festivals, downstream stocking increases, demand is resilient, and the market is supported [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years. As of September 12, the spot smelting fee (TC) was -$41.42 per dry ton, and the refining fee (RC) was -4.16 cents per pound, remaining weakly stable. Factory seasonal maintenance plans in September and October will lead to reduced production. Small and medium-sized smelters are under pressure to make profits, and the supply of refined copper remains tight. In August, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.24% and a year-on-year increase of 15.59%. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and smelters have maintenance plans in September. It is expected that the electrolytic copper production in September will drop significantly. Although prices have risen recently, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased slightly, imports have increased, and high prices have suppressed copper demand, gradually starting the inventory accumulation trend. Overall, the fundamentals are still tight, and it is expected that domestic copper production will decrease significantly, supporting the upward movement of copper prices [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened low and moved high, closing at 79,910 yuan per ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 40 yuan per ton, and in South China was 80 yuan per ton. On September 18, 2025, the LME official price was $9,967 per ton, and the spot premium was -$72 per ton [4] Supply Side - As of the latest data on September 12, the spot smelting fee (TC) was -$41.42 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -4.16 cents per pound [7] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 631 tons from the previous period. As of September 18, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,400 tons, unchanged from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 147,700 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 315,200 short tons, an increase of 2,364 short tons from the previous period [11]