Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Views - The price of iron ore futures has gradually returned to fundamentals, and considering that steel mills maintain high production to support the ore price, it is expected that the short - term ore price will show a high - level consolidation trend [11]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On August 11, the main 2601 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated upward, opening higher, slightly falling, and then fluctuating upward, closing at 789.0 yuan/ton, up 1.94% [7]. - The prices of major iron ore external quotes increased by 1.5 dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major grade iron ores at Qingdao Port increased by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9]. - The KDJ indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to rise; the green column of the MACD indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2601 contract narrowed [9]. 1.2 Future Outlook - In terms of supply, the weekly shipment volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly last week, and the total shipment volume in the past four weeks decreased by 6.2% compared with the previous four weeks. Considering the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival volume may fluctuate at a medium - low level [10]. - On the demand side, the demand for downstream steel products still showed a seasonal decline, inventory gradually accumulated, and the molten iron output declined for three consecutive weeks, but it was still at a relatively high level of over 2.4 million tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises increased again. With sufficient profits, steel enterprises maintained strong production. The subsequent production reduction process is expected to be slow and the amplitude will not be large, which provides support for the ore price [10][11]. 2. Industry News - In July 2025, a total of 905 projects started across the country, with a total investment of approximately 1.791569 trillion yuan [12]. - Tangshan issued a production restriction notice. From August 16th to 25th, independent rolling enterprises may stop production at any time according to the weather conditions, and all enterprises should make preparations for production suspension. From the 25th to September 3rd, production will be stopped. According to Mysteel's research, some enterprises received oral notices. During the parade in Tangshan from August 26th to September 4th, the sintering production will be restricted by 40%, and whether the blast furnaces need to reduce production will be determined according to the air quality after the 25th. From August 20th to September 5th, key control will be implemented in steel - concentrated areas such as Qian'an, Fengnan, and Luanzhou in the whole area of Tangshan, and sintering machines, blast furnaces, rolling lines, etc. will be restricted according to requirements. In terms of transportation, the volume of diesel trucks entering and leaving the factory will be reduced by 60% (with an average daily reduction of about 12,000 vehicles). Currently, steel pipe production enterprises have not received the notice [12]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipment volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volume of major ports, the number of days of steel mills' iron ore inventory availability, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, port iron ore inventory and dredging volume, the tax - free molten iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace start - up rate and iron - making capacity utilization, the electric furnace start - up rate and capacity utilization, the national daily average molten iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [18][25][29][35][37][43].