证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 钢矿震荡 关注后期交易逻辑转变 2025年11月28日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：纪晓云 联系方式：010-56711796 期货从业资格证号：F3066027 期货交易咨询号：Z0011402 钢矿观点 钢材：当前政策真空期，市场交易的逻辑仍在产业层面。本期螺纹产量下降，热卷产量增加，五大钢材品 种产量增加。表需均由增转降，螺卷库存继续去库，但去库速度放缓。钢厂盈利率35%，周环比下降2.6%。 总体看，钢材供需双弱，预计螺卷继续维持震荡区间。螺纹主力合约压力位3230，支撑位3000。热卷压力 位3450，支撑位3200。 铁矿石：本周铁水日产234.68万吨，环比减少1.6万吨。本期国内铁矿到港偏低，但发运积极。国外港库 处于高位。综合判断，预计铁矿继续维持震荡走势。主力2601合约压力位833，支撑位750。 【交易策略】 1、维持钢矿短期震荡走势的判断。建议短线操作。 2、市场逻辑转变：12月将由产业驱动转向宏观预期，注意时间拐点。 重要资讯 1、11月24日，国家发改委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。国家发展改革委将会 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PB Fines most active contract basis values mostly fall within the range of [0, 200] yuan/ton. The basis is highest when a new contract is first listed and gradually narrows to around zero as the delivery month approaches. There is an expectation for the basis to strengthen in September, a peak season, while it tends to decline during the off - season and invariably as the delivery month approaches. In the delivery month, the basis for the September and January contracts is slightly higher than that of the May contract. When price spreads between different ore grades widen, the basis may deviate quickly from normal ranges [4]. - After standardizing the monthly average basis data of the three major contracts by delivery month, the basis is highest when the contract is newly listed and gradually narrows to around zero as it approaches delivery. This is because iron ore futures typically exhibit a long - term backwardation structure. The 09 and 01 contracts have stronger spot demand and their basis remains above zero at delivery, while the May contract's basis at delivery is lower due to weaker demand [71][77]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Concept - Basis = Adjusted Spot Futures Equivalent Price – Futures Price; Spread = Spot Price – Futures Price. The divergence in spot - futures price movements arises from different pricing benchmarks and the fact that futures prices reflect both spot fundamentals and market expectations. Spot price is defined as the lowest tax - included PB FINES price across all ports; futures price is the DCE iron ore main contract closing price for January, May, and September. Well - designed delivery systems should lead to basis near zero at delivery, but multiple deliverable brands cause basis to reflect additional price differences. Data from 2021 is excluded to show the normal seasonal pattern of basis [15][16][17]. 3.2 Contract Basis 3.2.1 PB Fines January Contract Basis - The maximum value of the PB Fines January contract basis is 518.9 yuan/ton, the minimum is - 28.9 yuan/ton, the average is 89.7 yuan/ton, and the 80% range is [2.9, 188.1] yuan/ton. The basis slightly widened in September (peak season) and tended to contract more rapidly in November and December (off - season) [35][38]. 3.2.2 PB Fines May Contract Basis - The maximum value of the PB Fines May contract basis is 619.1 yuan/ton, the minimum is - 57.5 yuan/ton, the average is 85.5 yuan/ton, and the 80% range is [- 1.8, 204.7] yuan/ton. The basis narrowed rapidly in April (ahead of delivery and seasonal transition) and strengthened in September (traditional peak season). The decline in October was limited [45]. 3.2.3 PB Fines September Contract Basis - The maximum value of the PB Fines September contract basis is 398.1 yuan/ton, the minimum is - 28.1 yuan/ton, the average is 80.1 yuan/ton, and the 80% range is [2.1, 201.7] yuan/ton. The basis declined rapidly in July (off - season and close to delivery). The basis in January was relatively strong, possibly due to longer time to delivery and market expectations of increased supply [58]. 3.3 Conclusion 3.3.1 Normalization - The monthly average basis of the three major contracts is highest when the contract is newly listed and gradually narrows to around zero as it approaches delivery. The 09 and 01 contracts have stronger spot demand and positive basis at delivery, while the May contract's basis at delivery is lower due to weaker demand [71][77].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 27, 2025 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 3875.26, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 12875.19, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.44% to 3031.30. The trading volume of the two markets was 1709.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 73.6 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300: It closed at 4515.40, a decrease of 2.22 [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1. Energy Futures - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1652.3, a rise of 0.3. Port spot prices fell, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at 1460 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. Supply increased as coking enterprises' costs improved, and demand was weak as steel mills' profitability was poor and maintenance expanded [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index closed at 1114.0 yuan, a decrease of 0.6. Prices in some regions changed, with Shanxi's main coking coal down 90 yuan to 1580 yuan/ton. Supply recovered as coal mines resumed production, and there was pressure on coal mine shipments [3][4]. 2.2. Agricultural Futures - Zhengzhou Sugar: The 2601 contract rose slightly due to factors such as the rebound of US sugar and short - covering. The 2025/26 global sugar supply is expected to have a surplus of 3.7 million tons, the largest since 2017/18. Brazil's sugarcane production is expected to be 659 million tons, and the Philippines' raw sugar production is expected to be 2.09 million tons [4]. - Rubber: Affected by Thailand's weather warning and potential output loss of up to 90,000 tons, the Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly. Global light - vehicle sales showed growth in October [6]. - Live Hogs: The LH2601 contract rose 0.39% to 11585 yuan/ton. The supply was strong due to high - level sow inventory and concentrated slaughter, while demand was weak, and the market was in a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern [6]. - Soybean Meal: The M2601 contract rose 1.33% to 3055 yuan/ton. The US soybean market was closed on November 27. China's soybean purchases from the US were close to 2 million tons. Brazil's soybean planting rate was 81%, lower than last year. Domestic supply improved, and the futures price had limited upward drive [6]. - Palm Oil: The P2601 contract rose 1.04% to 8528. Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 were estimated to be 583,574 tons, a 40.77% decrease from the previous month [6]. 2.3. Metal Futures - Shanghai Copper: The 2601 contract rose 0.35% to 86990 yuan/ton. Supply was tight due to factors such as smelter maintenance and mine accidents, and demand was strong in new - energy and other fields. However, high prices and potential factors might limit the increase [6][7]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract closed at 13710 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventory increased by 65 lots, and the purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 6.18 yuan/kg [7]. - Logs: The 2601 contract closed at 765, with an increase of 106 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and attention should be paid to factors such as spot prices and imports [7]. - Iron Ore: The 2601 contract rose 0.44% to 799.5 yuan. Shipping volume decreased, and port and steel mill inventories declined. The price was in a volatile trend [7]. - Asphalt: The 2601 contract fell 1.41% to 3007 yuan. December's production plan decreased, inventory was being reduced, and demand was in the off - season, with prices in a volatile state [7]. - Steel: The rb2601 closed at 3093 yuan/ton, and hc2601 at 3293 yuan/ton. Production and consumption decreased, and inventory continued to decline. The market was in a supply - and - demand double - weak pattern [7]. - Alumina: The ao2601 closed at 2720 yuan/ton. Environmental inspections affected the north, inventory increased slightly, and the market was sluggish [7]. - Shanghai Aluminum: The al2601 closed at 21500 yuan/ton. The macro - market sentiment improved, but demand was cautious. Supply was stable, and social inventory continued to decrease [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 28, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][20][26][36][46] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The basis data for different contract spreads (May - January, September - January, September - May) from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the basis of May - January was 16 yuan/ton, and the basis of September - January was 6 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of energy commodities such as fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are provided. For example, on November 27, the basis of fuel oil was - 10.13 yuan/ton, and the ratio of INE crude oil to asphalt was 0.1475 [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (May - January, September - January, September - May) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the May - January inter - period spread of LLDPE was 56 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2214 yuan/ton [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (May - January, September(10) - January, September(10) - May) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the May - January inter - period spread of rebar was 16 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.88 [19] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are given. For example, on November 27, the basis of rebar was 127.0 yuan/ton [20] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the basis of copper was 30 yuan/ton [29] 3.4.2 London Market - On November 27, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was 16.56, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.95 [32] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are given. For example, on November 27, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 86 yuan/ton [36] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (May - January, September - January, September - May) of various agricultural products are presented. For example, the May - January inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was 51 yuan/ton [36] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. on November 27, 2025, are provided. For example, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.83 [36] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the basis of CSI 300 was 22.80 [47] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 152 [47]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market shows a trend of rising and then falling, with the stock index facing issues such as insufficient trading volume and weak short - term technical trends. The bond market is affected by factors like Vanke's bond default and new regulations on public fund sales, and is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. [9][10] - In the black metal market, steel and ore are expected to oscillate in the short - term and remain bearish in the medium - to - long - term. Coal and coke prices may continue their weak oscillation in the short - term. For ferroalloys, there are opportunities to go long on ferrosilicon and engage in the "long ferrosilicon, short manganese silicon" arbitrage. [12][14][15] - In the non - ferrous and new materials market, zinc and lead prices are in a downward oscillation trend, with suggestions to hold short positions cautiously. Lithium carbonate shows wide - range oscillations, while industrial silicon and polysilicon continue to oscillate. [19][20][22] - In the agricultural products market, cotton oscillates and rebounds, sugar is under pressure but with cost support, eggs are expected to oscillate, apples are expected to be slightly bullish, and corn, dates, and live pigs have their own market characteristics and trends. [27][28][31] - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is in a long - term downward trend, fuel oil follows oil price fluctuations, plastics are in a weak oscillation, and other energy and chemical products also have their own market outlooks. [40][41][43] Summaries by Directory Macro News - The State Council executive meeting chaired by Premier Li Qiang discussed multiple important matters, including promoting high - quality development, medical insurance, and relevant regulations. Vanke's stocks and bonds declined sharply. China and Malaysia communicated on the "Malaysia - US Equivalent Trade Agreement". The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade will organize a business delegation to visit the US in early December. From January to October, the national industrial enterprise profits increased year - on - year, but decreased in October. The NDRC studied price - related work. Putin stated that the US delegation will visit Moscow, and the ECB strengthened the expectation of the end of the interest - rate cut cycle. [6][7] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt an oscillation strategy and temporarily wait and see. The A - share market rose and then fell, with issues such as insufficient trading volume. The selection of the Fed chairman is in the final stage. The short - term decline may lead to a rebound, but the market's anti - fragility is insufficient. [9] Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market is affected by Vanke's bond default and new regulations on public fund sales. The current capital situation is generally loose, and the bond market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. [10] Black Metal Steel and Ore - In terms of policy, pay attention to the impact of the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference on the macro - expectations of the market next year. On the fundamental side, the demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is good. The supply side may see a decline in molten iron production, and the inventory is still at a high level compared to last year. The valuation of iron ore is relatively strong, and steel prices are likely to remain weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is bearish. [11][12] Coal and Coke - Prices may continue their weak oscillation in the short - term. Pay attention to the impact of coal mine production, safety supervision, and changes in molten iron production. [14] Ferroalloys - The ferrosilicon market has opportunities to go long in the medium - to - long - term, and pay attention to the "long ferrosilicon, short manganese silicon" arbitrage. In the short - term, pay attention to the impact of electricity settlement in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia on the market. [15] Non - ferrous and New Materials Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory has decreased. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels or take profits temporarily and operate cyclically. The zinc price is in a downward oscillation trend with the possibility of a phased rebound. [19] Lead - The domestic lead inventory has decreased, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously. The lead price has a slight rebound, and the import lead trading activity is not high. [20][21] Lithium Carbonate - The short - term trend is in wide - range oscillations, with a game between short - term bearishness and long - term optimism. The recent demand shows signs of weakening, but the long - term demand is still promising. [22] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has limited downward adjustment space and continues to oscillate. Polysilicon also continues to oscillate, and it is necessary to be cautious when chasing long positions. [23] Agricultural Products Cotton - Affected by factors such as large supply pressure and weak demand, it oscillates and rebounds. The USDA report is bearish, and the domestic supply pressure remains. The valuation of Zhengzhou cotton futures is lower than the spot price, supporting its rebound. [27][28] Sugar - The domestic and international sugar markets are under pressure from supply surplus, but cost support limits the decline. It is recommended to wait and see. [28][29] Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is high, and consumption has not improved significantly. The spot price is expected to be weak. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to short at high levels with proper position control. [31] Apples - The apple market is expected to be slightly bullish. The apple storage is nearly finished, and the出库 has started. The inventory is lower than last year, and attention should be paid to consumption dynamics. [33] Corn - Pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price. The current price increase is due to "supply - demand mismatch", and the spot price may回调, but the decline space is limited. [35] Dates - It is recommended to wait and see. The prices in production and sales areas are stable at a low level, and the futures price is weak. [36][37] Live Pigs - In the short - term, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to short at high levels for near - month contracts. In the long - term, the decline in the number of breeding sows is beneficial to future pig prices. [38] Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The oil price is in a long - term downward trend, affected by factors such as EIA inventory accumulation and geopolitical negotiations. It is recommended to short at high levels. [40] Fuel Oil - It follows the oil price fluctuations. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the impact of sanctions on Russia and the OPEC+ meeting. [41] Plastics - The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to adopt a weak - oscillation strategy. [43] Rubber - It is recommended to take profits appropriately for the ru - nr spread. It is short - term bullish due to weather factors, and it is necessary to be cautious when chasing high prices. [44] Synthetic Rubber - It may still have downward space. It is recommended to short at high levels. The restart of maintenance devices at the end of the month and in December may put further pressure on the price. [45] Methanol - The near - month and far - month contracts are recommended to adopt an oscillation strategy. If the inventory reduction is smooth, a slightly long - position configuration can be considered. [46] Caustic Soda - The spot price is weak, and it is recommended to adopt an oscillation strategy. [47] Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter storage game. [48] Polyester Industry Chain - It is expected to continue the oscillation adjustment in the short - term, affected by factors such as the decline in blending oil sentiment and weakening terminal demand. [50] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - It may turn from strong to weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. The weakening of oil prices may accelerate its decline. [50] Pulp - The fundamentals are stable, and it is expected to enter an oscillation stage. It is recommended to wait and see. [51] Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish, and the price is under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in the off - season. [52] Urea - The现货 price may oscillate strongly, and the futures market may have short - term emotional trading. It is recommended to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy. [53]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Downstream demand has limited space, and the valuation is high [2] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Ferrosilicon: Subject to market sentiment disturbances, wide - range oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: The price of the ore end is firm, wide - range oscillation [2] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Logs: Weak oscillation [2] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, and presents their respective fundamental data and macro - industry news [2][4][7] Summaries by Commodities Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of I2601 futures was 799.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.31%); the open interest decreased by 5,496 lots. Imported ore prices generally declined by 2 yuan/ton, and domestic ore prices remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed [4] - **Macro - Industry News**: In October, the year - on - year actual growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 4.9%, and the cumulative growth rate from January to October was 6.1% [4] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish sentiment [4] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of RB2601 futures was 3,093 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (- 0.13%); the closing price of HC2601 futures was 3,293 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.27%). Spot prices in some regions declined, and there were changes in basis and spread values [7] - **Macro - Industry News**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on November 27, rebar production decreased by 1.88 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 3 tons; rebar inventory decreased by 21.86 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.21 tons; rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.85 tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.31 tons. In mid - November, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 871 million tons, a decrease of 22 million tons (2.5%) from the previous month. In October 2025, national crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%, etc. [8][9] - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2603 and 2605 futures decreased by 26 yuan/ton and 32 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of silicomanganese 2601 and 2605 futures decreased by 4 yuan/ton and 6 yuan/ton respectively. Spot prices and various spread values showed corresponding changes [11] - **Macro - Industry News**: In November, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia was 63.03%, an increase of 0.64% from October, and the output was expected to be 158,700 tons, an increase of 7,300 tons from October; the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Gansu was 38.67%, a decrease of 2.66% from October, and the output was expected to be 44,700 tons, a decrease of 11,500 tons from October. There were also changes in the production of silicomanganese in other regions [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of JM2601 coking coal futures was 1,071 yuan/ton, down 13.5 yuan/ton (- 1.2%); the closing price of J2601 coke futures was 1,607 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.7%). Spot prices and basis and spread values changed [15] - **Macro - Industry News**: Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 - 2026 [15] - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [16] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spread values of different log futures contracts showed various changes. Spot prices in most regions remained stable [18] - **Macro - Industry News**: Starting from November 10, 2025, the General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of US logs [20] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [20]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Guangda Futures' Daily Monitoring Report on Iron Ore Basis and Spread" - Date: November 27, 2025 [1] 1. Futures Contract Price and Spread 1.1 Futures Contract Prices - I05 closed at 773.5 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan from the previous day [3]. - I09 closed at 748.5 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - I01 closed at 797.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan from the previous day [3]. 1.2 Futures Contract Spreads - The spread between I05 and I09 was 25.0 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - The spread between I09 and I01 was -48.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - The spread between I01 and I05 was 23.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan from the previous day [3]. 2. Basis Analysis 2.1 Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties, such as Carajás Fines (Kaofen), the basis changed. For example, Carajás Fines' basis was 52 yuan/ton today, down 2 yuan from the previous day [5]. 2.2 Basis Chart - Charts show the basis trends of different iron ore varieties, including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, etc. [7][8][9] 3. Exchange Rule Adjustments 3.1 Newly Added Deliverable Varieties - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, and Ukrainian Concentrate) are added, with a brand premium of 0, starting from Contract I2202 [11]. - Four more varieties (Taigang Concentrate, Magang Concentrate, Minmetals Standard Fines, and SP10 Fines) are added as deliverable brands with a brand premium of 0 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Brand Premium Adjustments - Only PB Fines, BRBF, and Carajás Fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, while other deliverable brands have a premium of 0 yuan/ton in the new rules [11]. 3.3 Quality Difference and Premium Adjustments - The allowable range of iron grade is adjusted to ≥56%. Other element limits and corresponding premium - discount rules are also detailed [11]. - The premium value of the iron element is dynamically adjusted by X, with different calculation methods based on the average settlement price of the nearest delivery - month contract [11]. 4. Variety Spread Analysis 4.1 Variety Spread Data - The spread between PB Lump and PB Fines was 77.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan from the previous day [13]. - The spread between PB Fines and FMG Mixed Fines was 66.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan from the previous day [13]. 4.2 Variety Spread Charts - Charts display the spread trends of different iron ore varieties, such as lump - fines spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, etc. [15][16][20] 5. Research Team Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and relevant qualifications in the industry [24]

2025 年 11 月 27 日 股指期货将震荡整理 白银期货将震荡偏强 黄金、多晶硅、 碳酸锂期货将偏强震荡 螺纹钢、铁矿石期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货大概率将震荡整理：IF2512 阻力位 4521 和 4539 点，支撑位 4457 和 4439 点；IH2512 阻力位 2977 和 2990 点，支撑位 2959 和 2952 点；IC2512 阻力位 7000 和 7054 点，支撑位 6871 和 6827 点；IM2512 阻 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite continues to recover, while both domestic stocks and bonds are weak. The US economic data shows structural differentiation, with the market pricing an 85% probability of a December interest rate cut by the Fed. In China, policies aim to boost consumption, but the A - share market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and the bond market lacks a clear direction [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term due to the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations. Copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile, aluminum prices are expected to be favorable, alumina will continue its weak trend, and other metals and industrial products also have their respective market trends based on supply - demand and macro - economic factors [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomics - Overseas: US data is structurally differentiated. Initial jobless claims dropped to 216,000, but continuing claims rose to 1.96 million. Durable goods and core capital goods orders in September increased by 0.5% and 0.9% respectively. The Fed's Beige Book shows weak consumption and stagnant economic activity. The market prices an 85% probability of a December interest rate cut, with the US dollar index falling and copper, gold, and crude oil prices rising [2]. - Domestic: Six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan to develop e - commerce and integrate AI into the consumer goods industry. The A - share market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and the bond market lacks a clear direction. The 10Y and 30Y treasury bond yields are 1.83% and 2.19% respectively [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose on Wednesday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.45% to $4196.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures soared 4.13% to $53.76 per ounce. Weak US economic data and the possible Fed chair change support interest rate cut expectations. The probability of a December interest rate cut is 85%. Short - term, gold and silver prices are expected to be strongly volatile. Platinum and palladium futures can be bought at low prices [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper futures rose, and LME copper approached the $11,000 resistance level. The spot market had weak trading. The Fed's Beige Book shows weak consumer spending and rising input costs. US PPI data is mild, and overseas institutions predict a decline in core PCE. Chile's Codelco raised the long - term copper price for China in 2026. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with resistance at $11,000 - $11,200 [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum futures rose slightly, and LME aluminum rose 2.25%. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased. US economic data shows labor market resilience but also potential weakness. The market's expectation of Fed easing remains unchanged. Aluminum prices are expected to be favorable [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, alumina futures fell 0.37%. The supply - demand situation has limited changes, and the oversupply suppresses prices. The futures price is below the average cost, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Wednesday, cast aluminum alloy futures fell slightly. The aluminum price has stabilized, and the cast aluminum market is in a state of stop - falling and shock. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost provides good support [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Wednesday, Shanghai zinc futures rose at night. The spot market was weak. The decrease in the number of initial jobless claims in the US reduced interest rate cut expectations, but the UK's tax - increase plan weakened the US dollar, which is beneficial to zinc prices. The supply pressure is gradually improving, but the market lacks the power for continuous rise, and zinc prices are expected to be widely volatile [12]. 3.8 Lead - On Wednesday, Shanghai lead futures were weakly volatile. The decline of LME lead dragged down Shanghai lead. The reopening of the lead ingot import window suppresses prices, but cost support and regional supply shortages limit the decline. Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile [13]. 3.9 Tin - On Wednesday, Shanghai tin futures rose at night. The weakening of the US dollar and the political instability in the DRC support tin prices. However, the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is low, and inventory is expected to increase. With the approaching Fed meeting, the market sentiment may fluctuate, so be cautious about chasing up prices [14]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon futures were narrowly volatile. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is weak. The social inventory has risen, and the futures price is expected to be weakly volatile [15][16]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - On Wednesday, lithium carbonate prices were widely volatile. The raw material prices rose, and the main contract has switched to 2605. The market has a strong long - short game, and lithium prices are expected to be widely volatile [17]. 3.12 Nickel - On Wednesday, nickel prices were volatile. The market expects an 82% probability of a December interest rate cut by the Fed. The spot market has good inquiry enthusiasm but limited trading volume. The macro - environment may boost nickel prices in the short - term [18]. 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - On Wednesday, soda ash futures were volatile, and glass futures were strongly volatile. The supply of glass is shrinking, but the demand is weak, and inventories are rising. The supply of soda ash is tightening, but the demand is difficult to improve significantly. Prices are expected to be low and volatile [19]. 3.14 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures rebounded. The cost is weakening, and the demand is expected to be weak. The supply pressure is increasing, and steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile [20][21]. 3.15 Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures were adjusted. The demand is weak due to steel mill losses and production cuts. The supply pressure remains high, and iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure [22]. 3.16 Coking Coal and Coke - On Wednesday, coking coal and coke futures were weakly volatile. The online auction of coking coal had a high flow - rate, and the spot price was weak. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [23]. 3.17 Industrial Data - The report provides trading data of various metal futures on November 26, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. It also shows the changes in inventory, spot prices, and other data of different metals, such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc. [24][25][28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 27, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from November 20 to November 26, 2025, shows a decreasing trend from 32.6 yuan/ton on November 20 to 17.6 yuan/ton on November 26 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from November 20 to November 26, 2025, is presented, with some fluctuations in the basis values [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: From November 20 to November 26, 2025, the basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP shows different trends. For example, the basis of rubber decreased from - 400 yuan/ton on November 20 to - 545 yuan/ton on November 26 [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The differences between 5 - month and 1 - month, 9 - month and 1 - month, and 9 - month and 5 - month contracts for rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., are provided. For instance, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber is 65 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spreads between LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3* methanol from November 20 to November 26, 2025, are given. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on November 26 is 2255 yuan/ton [10] 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: From November 20 to November 26, 2025, the basis of螺纹钢, 铁矿石, 焦炭, and 焦煤 shows different changes. For example, the basis of螺纹钢 increased from 140 yuan/ton on November 20 to 171 yuan/ton on November 26 [20] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The differences between 5 - month and 1 - month, 9 - month (10) and 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) and 5 - month contracts for螺纹钢, 铁矿石, 焦炭, and 焦煤 are presented. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of螺纹钢 is 20 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spreads between螺/矿, 螺/焦炭, 焦炭/焦煤, and 螺 - 热卷 from November 20 to November 26, 2025, are shown. For example, the螺/矿 ratio on November 26 is 3.89 [19] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 20 to November 26, 2025, is provided. For example, the basis of copper decreased from 170 yuan/ton on November 20 to - 20 yuan/ton on November 26 [29] 3.4.2 London Market - On November 26, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, and CIF prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are given. For example, the LME spread of copper is 30.83 [32] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: From November 20 to November 26, 2025, the basis of豆一, 豆二, 豆粕, 豆油, 玉米, etc., shows different trends. For example, the basis of豆一 increased from - 87 yuan/ton on November 20 to - 74 yuan/ton on November 26 [36] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The differences between 5 - month and 1 - month, 9 - month and 1 - month, and 9 - month and 5 - month contracts for various agricultural products are presented. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of豆一 is 54 yuan/ton [36] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spreads between豆一/玉米, 豆二/玉米, 豆油/豆粕, etc., from November 20 to November 26, 2025, are shown. For example, the豆一/玉米 ratio on November 26 is 1.83 [36] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: From November 20 to November 26, 2025, the basis of沪深300, 上证50, 中证500, and 中证1000 shows different changes. For example, the basis of沪深300 increased from 12.85 on November 24 to 24.63 on November 26 [47] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The differences between the next - month and current - month, next - quarter and current - quarter contracts for沪深300, 上证50, 中证500, and 中证1000 are given. For example, the next - month minus current - month spread of沪深300 is - 140 [47]