1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the I2605 contract rebounded but was blocked. The US and Iran have released statements indicating a relaxation of the conflict, and the decline in oil prices has weakened the support for iron ore prices. The current supply and demand situation shows that the shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has decreased, the arrival volume has increased, the blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills have continued to rise, and port inventories have declined. The expectation of increased demand will drive further inventory reduction. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 - axis. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 812.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan; the trading volume is 347,799 lots, down 5,825 lots; the 5 - 9 contract spread is 23 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 981 lots, down 1,765 lots; the Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts are 3,300 lots, up 3,300 lots; the Singapore iron ore main contract is quoted at 106.5 US dollars/ton as of 15:00, up 1.02 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 835 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 824 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 742 yuan/dry ton, unchanged; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 12 yuan, up 1 yuan; the 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 107.65 US dollars/ton, down 0.85 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.15, down 0.01; the estimated import cost is 855 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 2,472.40 tons, down 671.90 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,626.70 tons, up 243.60 tons; the iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,666.83 tons, down 147.35 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 8,978.56 tons, down 55.50 tons [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 9,764.00 tons, down 1,475.00 tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) are 25 days, up 6 days; the daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 40.16 tons, down 0.69 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 63.62%, down 0.67%; the iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 61.95 tons, down 1.18 tons; the BDI index is 1,995.00, down 22.00; the iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 30.12 US dollars/ton, down 0.08 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 11.12 US dollars/ton, up 0.14 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 81.05%, up 1.25%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 86.65%, up 1.10%; the domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 tons, down 169 tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) is 15.55%, down 0.12%; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) is 15.94%, up 0.01%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 19.98%, up 0.66%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 21.00%, up 1.26% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 23 to March 29, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2,472.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 671.9 tons. The total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 1,875.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 684.3 tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1,033.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 961.9 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 839.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 795.6 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 841.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 277.6 tons. - From March 23 to March 29, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,626.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 243.6 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,426.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 154.7 tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,198.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 147.7 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, which has a broad impact on various commodity futures markets [1][8][9][10]. - Different commodity markets show diverse trends and characteristics, with some markets being influenced by supply - demand relationships, while others are more affected by geopolitical events and policy factors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The international gold price denominated in London gold rose 3.51% to $4668 per ounce, and the international silver price rose 7.10% to $75.01 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There are signs of easing in the US - Iran conflict, but the conflict is not over [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a pull - back to buy gold; for silver, suggest gradually taking profits on previous short positions [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated strongly [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The authenticity of the news that the Iranian president wants to end the war under security guarantees is to be verified. The supply of copper ore and scrap copper remains tight, and the spot of flat - water copper in East and South China is traded at a discount of 60 yuan and a premium of 50 yuan respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest waiting and seeing [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.61% to 24,875 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 245 yuan per ton, with the LME price at $3475 per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The attack on core aluminum plants in the Middle East leads to expectations of supply contraction, and it is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate strongly. Suggest buying on dips [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 3.88% to 2827 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 118 yuan per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina is relatively stable, and aluminum smelters maintain high - load production [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by the release of new production capacity in Guangxi, the pattern of oversupply is further deepened. It is expected that alumina prices will oscillate weakly. Suggest waiting and seeing, and focus on the implementation of Guinea's mining policy [1]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On March 31, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 23,480 yuan per ton and 16,500 yuan per ton respectively, with changes of - 60 yuan and + 5 yuan compared to the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 23,480 yuan per ton and - 16,500 yuan per ton, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 0.68 and 68.8 dollars per ton respectively. The seven - place zinc inventory on March 30 was 248,200 tons, a decrease of 1300 tons compared to March 26, and the five - place lead inventory on March 30 was 57,500 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared to March 26 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The lead ingot inventory is accelerating its depletion, and the lead price shows a stop - falling signal. However, the import window is open, and the lead battery enters the traditional off - season in April. With the co - existence of the resumption of production of secondary lead and new overhauls, it is expected that the lead price will continue to oscillate narrowly. In the zinc market, the disturbance at the mine end intensifies, the import processing fee drops to a negative value, the domestic smelters have strong demand for ore, and the social inventory continues to deplete to below 250,000 tons. The tower and export orders support consumption, but there is still uncertainty in the macro - sentiment [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For lead, pay attention to the implementation of smelter overhauls. If the inventory depletion continues, try to buy on dips. For zinc, the fundamentals improve, but the macro - risk is large. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8355 yuan per ton, a decrease of 125 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 1.47%, the position decreased by 18,817 lots to 201,800 lots (- 8.53%), and the trading volume decreased by 11,006 lots to 172,049 lots (- 6.01%). The variety's precipitated funds decreased by 171 million to 3.037 billion, and the warehouse receipt volume today was 22,313 lots (+ 24) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the number of weekly industrial silicon furnaces in operation is flat compared to the previous period. With the year - on - year decline in electricity prices in the southwest region, enterprises' willingness to resume production increases, and there is an expectation of increased production in the future. On the demand side, the polysilicon industry resumed work in March, and the monthly production capacity is gradually released, with the expected monthly output approaching 90,000 tons; the output of the organic silicon industry is stable, and the price trend is stable. The price of aluminum alloy decreased slightly, but the industry's start - up rate increased to 59.5%, reaching a new high this year [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to whether subsequent measures such as coordinated market control and joint price stabilization will be introduced after last week's meeting. The organic silicon industry will hold a meeting in Jinan on April 2 to discuss production cuts and price increases. In the short term, although the market pays attention to the support level increase brought by energy costs, the high - level hedging pressure is obvious. It is expected that the market will maintain an oscillating pattern in the range of 8100 - 8900 [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 157,200 yuan per ton (- 14,420), with a closing price decrease of 8.40% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, a large amount of funds flowed out, and the market was under pressure to fall. The expectation of the continuation of the US - Iran war weakened, and the concern about the shortage of diesel supply in Australia affecting lithium ore mining is expected to ease. The export ban in Zimbabwe has no progress, and its supply disturbance will gradually be reflected in mid - to late April. However, the expectation of the strengthening of the preference for new - energy vehicles and energy - storage consumption due to oil price fluctuations remains unchanged, and the trend of the weekly demand recovery at the power end is clear. The spot price of SMM Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is $2360 per ton, an increase of $25 per ton compared to the previous day, and the SMM electric carbon price is 163,000 (- 1500) yuan per ton. On the supply side, the weekly output is 24,814 tons, a month - on - month increase of 628 tons, due to the recovery of the spodumene production line. SMM expects the lithium carbonate production in March to be 106,390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% compared to January. On the demand side, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate in March is 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% compared to January; the production schedule of ternary materials in March is 84,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% compared to January. In terms of inventory, the short - term weekly inventory shows a slight accumulation. The export ban of lithium ore in Zimbabwe has no progress, and it is expected that the supply gap of at least one month will be gradually reflected in mid - to late April. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the policy progress in Zimbabwe. The sample inventory is 99,489 tons, an increase of 616 tons in inventory, among which the smelting link has an inventory increase of 724 tons, the downstream link has an inventory increase of 552 tons, and the trader link has an inventory decrease of 660 tons. The total inventory days are 27.9 (+ 0.2) days. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 11,318 (- 19,746) lots. Pay attention to the growth rate slope of new warehouse receipts after centralized cancellation. The funds precipitated in the market are 30.1 (- 3.78) billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With supply disturbances and a clear trend of demand recovery, it is expected to oscillate widely. Buy on dips at the lower edge of the range and be cautious about chasing high [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 35,200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1350 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 3.69%, the position decreased by 128 lots to 34,456 lots (- 0.37%), and the trading volume decreased by 5768 lots to 10,763 lots (- 34.89%). The variety's precipitated funds decreased by 16 million to 1.758 billion, and the warehouse receipt volume today was 11,030 lots (+ 10) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the weekly polysilicon output is flat compared to the previous period, and the month - on - month increase in industry inventory has significantly narrowed. The production schedule in April is basically flat compared to the previous month. On the demand side, the prices of downstream photovoltaic - related products still continue to decline, but the decline rate is gradually slowing down. The expected production schedule of components in April is reduced by 7.26GW month - on - month. From January to February 2026, the newly - installed domestic photovoltaic capacity decreased by 17.71% year - on - year, with an average monthly installed capacity of 16GW, showing a stable performance. The export data of battery cells and components in February decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year trends were divergent. The component exports to Europe increased slightly year - on - year [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price of polysilicon has been continuously declining this week, and the market sentiment is weak. The current market still needs to fully digest the negative factors such as the weakening of the spot market. Coupled with the relatively high volatility of the variety, it is recommended to focus on tracking the actual downstream procurement situation and the transaction order price in the short term, and mainly wait and see in operation [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices oscillated strongly [3]. - **Fundamentals**: There is news that the Iranian president wants to end the war under security guarantees, but the authenticity of the news is to be verified. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the spot is still traded at a high premium. The domestic warehouse receipts are decreasing rapidly every day, and the London structure is 375 dollars contango [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest waiting and seeing [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 rebar contract closed at 3124 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The building material inventory in the Gangyin caliber decreased by 0.3% to 6.63 million tons month - on - month, and was basically flat last week. The rebar out - bound volume in Hangzhou on the weekend was 68,000 tons, compared with 76,000 tons last week; the inventory was 1.548 million tons, compared with 1.522 million tons last week and 1.127 million tons in the same period last year. The building material demand has marginally improved but is still slightly weaker year - on - year. Fortunately, the supply has decreased year - on - year, and the contradiction is limited. The plate demand has marginally stabilized, and the direct and indirect exports remain at a relatively high level. The inventory depletion speed is at a neutral level in the same period of history. The steel mill profit is poor, and the production increase space is limited. The steel spot price is a bit weak in following the rise, and the futures discount has narrowed [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. Hold the short position of rebar 2605 cautiously or choose the opportunity to exit. The reference range for RB05 is 3100 - 3160 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 iron ore contract closed at 815 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron ore arrival volume increased by 1.237 million tons to 22.802 million tons month - on - month, and the shipment volume decreased by 6.72 million tons to 24.724 million tons month - on - month. The iron ore supply - demand margin remains stable. The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 30,000 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3% year - on - year. The coking plant proposed a price increase, but it has not been implemented yet. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope is limited. The supply side conforms to the seasonal law. The furnace charge inventory of steel mills is slightly high, and the inventory days remain above the historical average level. Although the total port inventory has increased by about 24 million tons to 170 million tons year - on - year, the proportion of mainstream iron ore inventory in ports is low, and there is a certain structural contradiction. The iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure but is significantly lower year - on - year, and the valuation is slightly high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 800 - 830 [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 coking coal contract closed at 1147.5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 43.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 30,000 tons to 22.82 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3% year - on - year. The coke proposed a price increase, but it has not been implemented yet. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope may be gentle. The port customs clearance at the supply end maintains a high level, and the inventory in each link is differentiated. The port and mine - mouth inventories are high, while the inventories in other links are low, and the overall inventory level is neutral. The 05 contract futures have a premium over the spot, and the forward - premium structure is maintained, with the futures valuation being high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. Hold the short position of coking coal 2605 cautiously. The reference range for JM05 is 1120 - 1170 [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose because the US soybean planting area intention was slightly lower than the market expectation [6]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, it is loose in the near - term, and there is an expectation of increased production capacity for new US soybean crops in the far - term. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing is strong, and the exports conform to the seasonality. In general, the expectation of global supply - demand looseness remains unchanged [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the looseness suppresses the price. Pay attention to the production in the producing areas and crude oil; in China, it also follows the cost side. Pay attention to the macro - crude oil and the arrival volume [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn futures price declined, and the corn spot price decreased in the Northeast and slightly increased in the North China [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Currently, the grain - selling progress exceeds 80%, but the progress is slow. The mentality in the producing areas, especially in North China, has loosened, and the enthusiasm for selling grain has increased. The policy wheat auction volume has increased, and both the transaction rate and the premium have declined. Coupled with the good growth of new - season wheat seedlings, the wheat price has weakened. After the spot price rose to a high level, the expectation of policy regulation has increased, and the spot price is expected to adjust weakly. Pay attention to the auction situation of the minimum - purchase - price wheat and the changes in the purchase - and - sale rhythm [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since the transaction rate and premium of the wheat auction have both declined, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. White Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 0

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View On March 31, 2026, the A - share market and various futures markets showed different trends. The A - share market had a collective callback, and futures markets such as coke, coal, and others had their own price movements influenced by factors like supply - demand relationships, international policies, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Category A. Stock Index Futures - On March 31, A - share market indices fell. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.80% to 3891.86 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.81% to 13478.06 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.70% to 3184.95 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2006.1 billion yuan, an increase of 78.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was weak on March 31, closing at 4450.05, a decrease of 41.90 from the previous day [2]. B. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 31, the coke weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1737.4, a decrease of 54.0 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index also trended weakly, closing at 1203.2 yuan, a decrease of 72.7 from the previous day [2][3]. - Coking profit is average, daily production slightly increases, coke inventory slightly rises, and traders' purchasing willingness improves slightly. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, downstream molten iron slightly increases, and steel profit slightly improves. The coking coal futures price has a large premium over Mongolian coal, and Mongolian coal customs clearance data remains high. Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 1230 vehicles. Coal mine production has returned to a high - level, weekly production slightly decreases, spot auction transactions are good this week, transaction prices mainly rise, terminal inventory significantly increases, and there is some restocking action. The total coking coal inventory slightly increases, and production - end inventory slightly decreases [4]. C. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the failure of the futures price to break through and stabilize at the 16 - cent technical level, it was pressured by technical selling, and the US sugar oscillated and declined on Monday. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract to oscillate and decline on Tuesday. Due to the large short - term decline, affected by the technical aspect, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated and adjusted slightly higher at night. In the 2026/27 season starting in April, Brazil's sugar export volume may decrease by 14.2% as sugar mills tend to use more sugarcane to produce ethanol due to high energy prices. Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 season will drop from 43.5 million tons in the previous season to 40.3 million tons [4]. D. Rubber - Affected by the decline of synthetic rubber, Shanghai rubber oscillated and declined on Tuesday. At night, supported by bargain - hunting buying, Shanghai rubber oscillated and rose. In the first two months of 2026, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 450,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15%. From January to February, Thailand's exports of mixed rubber were 297,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In total, Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first two months were 747,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% [4]. E. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on March 31, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1172.25 cents per bushel, a gain of 1.17%. The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the US soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to be 84.7 million acres, higher than last year's 81.215 million acres but lower than analysts' forecast of 85.549 million acres. Brazil's soybean exports in March are estimated to be 15.86 million tons, slightly lower than the previous forecast, and the short - term export rhythm is stable. Domestically, on March 31, the soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 2915 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.75%. China has relaxed the weed quarantine standards for Brazilian soybeans, and the customs clearance speed has accelerated. Brazilian soybeans will arrive in large quantities from April to May, and the domestic soybean supply will become more abundant, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to stop falling and rise. It is recommended to focus on the weather in South American main production areas, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the rhythm of soybean arrivals, and customs clearance efficiency [6]. F. Live Pigs - On March 31, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9770 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.35%. The inventory of breeding sows remains at a high level, higher than the reasonable regulation target. Coupled with the improvement of production efficiency, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs continues to increase, and the slaughter volume remains high. The capacity reduction is insufficient, and the supply side remains loose. The demand side has insufficient carrying capacity and cannot effectively support the live pig price. Although some slaughtering enterprises carry out frozen product segmentation and warehousing operations, and there is a small amount of secondary fattening, such demand is limited, and it is difficult to reverse the current market pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to focus on the progress of breeding sow reduction, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the recovery of terminal consumption [6]. G. Palm Oil - On March 31, affected by Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan, the palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange once broke through the 10,000 - yuan mark. However, the subsequent upward momentum was insufficient, and the market oscillated and declined with a reduction in positions. By the afternoon close, the palm oil main contract P2605 K - line closed as a negative line with long upper and lower shadows. The highest price on the day was 10082, the lowest price was 9808, and the closing price was 9866, a decrease of 0.64% from the previous trading day. According to the independent inspection agency AmSpec in Malaysia, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 31 were 1,607,065 tons, a 56.7% increase from the 1,025,449 tons exported in the same period last month [6]. H. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main 2605 contract oscillated in a narrow range, closing at 95340 yuan per ton. The opening price was 96100 yuan per ton, the highest was 96240 yuan per ton, the lowest was 95150 yuan per ton, the trading volume was 96,900 lots, and the positions slightly declined. In the spot market, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper was 95350 yuan per ton, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous day, with a premium of 120 - 160 yuan per ton. The price differences in East China, South China, and Central China were all within 50 yuan, and the market transactions were stable. Fundamentally, on the supply side, smelting has production cuts, and the scrap copper policy is liberalized; on the demand side, the "Golden March" peak season is gradually realized, and the power grid, new energy, and other fields support the demand. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is decreasing at a low level, and the global inventory is still tight. It is necessary to pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation and the progress of domestic inventory reduction [6]. I. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15510 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 15 lots compared with the previous trading day, and downstream textile enterprises purchased as needed and were cautious about price adjustments. The US Department of Agriculture will release the 2026 US cotton planting intention forecast on Tuesday. The current industry average forecast is 9.229 million acres, with a forecast range of 9 - 9.635 million acres. Last year's actual planting area was 9.283 million acres, the US Agricultural Outlook Forum predicted 9.4 million acres, and the US NCC predicted 8.99 million acres [6][7]. J. Iron Ore - On March 31, the iron ore 2605 main contract oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.8% and a closing price of 808 yuan. The iron ore shipments in this period declined, the arrival volume continued to increase month - on - month, the port inventory decreased, steel mills maintained the resumption trend, and the molten iron output continued to rise. The short - term iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [8]. K. Asphalt - On March 31, the asphalt 2606 main contract oscillated and declined, with a decline of 1.53% and a closing price of 4512 yuan. The refinery operating rate is at a low level, the supply is tight, the terminal demand starts slowly, the refinery shipments continue to decline month - on - month, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [8]. L. Logs - The log 2605 main contract opened at 826 on Tuesday, with a minimum of 820, a maximum of 829, and a closing price of 820.5, with a daily reduction of 360 lots. On March 31, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 790 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, the same as the previous day. As of March 27, the domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.69%, hitting a one - month low. It is necessary to pay attention to the spot price, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and the support of the macro - expected market sentiment on the price [8][9]. M. Steel - On March 31, rb2605 closed at 3121 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3294 yuan per ton. In March, as enterprises accelerated the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of the manufacturing industry both rebounded and entered the expansion range. Although the business activity index of the construction industry rose to 49.3% in March, it was still in the contraction range. The number of newly started projects this year decreased year - on - year, and the industry demand recovered slowly. From the perspective of the steel market fundamentals, the supply and demand have gradually recovered since March, but it still faces high inventory pressure. Merchants mainly continue to reduce inventory, and the short - term steel price may oscillate [9]. N. Alumina - On March 31, ao2605 closed at 2827 yuan per ton. Affected by the uncertainty of Guinea's ore policy and the increase in shipping costs due to the Middle East situation, the price of imported ore still has room to rise. Coupled with the increase in caustic soda prices due to geopolitical conflicts, the cost support of alumina continues to move up. In addition, some domestic production cuts and new production capacities have not yet been fully released, and the short - term supply pressure is not large. However, since there are many new production capacities to be put into operation at home and abroad in the medium and long term, the upward pressure on alumina is still large [9]. O. Shanghai Aluminum - On March 31, al2605 closed at 24875 yuan per ton. The downstream demand is picking up, and the inflection point of social inventory is approaching. In addition, the potential risk of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually be transmitted to the electrolytic aluminum production in the Middle East. Coupled with the concerns about aluminum plant production cuts caused by the soaring natural gas prices in Europe, the global supply stability is facing challenges. It is worth noting that the extent of the production capacity damage of Bahrain Aluminum and UAE Aluminum due to the weekend incident remains to be evaluated, while Qatar Aluminum has clearly terminated the production capacity reduction plan, injecting a certain degree of stability into the market. Overall, there is still support at the bottom of electrolytic aluminum [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of near - end iron ore is supported by factors such as the decrease in Australian shipments due to hurricanes, the increase in Brazilian shipments, the improvement of molten iron production after the Two Sessions, and the enhanced expectation of rising shipping costs caused by geopolitical conflicts. However, the medium - and long - term trend depends on the intensity of steel mill复产, the recovery rhythm of molten iron production, and the actual realization of terminal demand. The de - stocking pressure under the high - inventory background will restrict the upward movement of prices. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and cautious operation is recommended [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Basis Rate and Spot Price - The basis rate of I2701 on March 31, 2026, was 769.0, down 2.5 from March 30; the basis rate of I2605 was 808.0, down 5.0; the basis rate of I2609 was 786.5, down 2.0. The spot prices of various iron ore varieties also showed different degrees of decline, such as the price of Jinbuba powder dropped from 737 to 730, a decrease of 7.0 [1] 2. Index and Import Profit - Mysteel 65% index decreased by 21, Mysteel 62% index decreased by 30, Mysteel 58% index decreased by 21. Import profits of different varieties also changed, for example, the import profit of Newman powder increased by 0.11 [1] 3. MS Inventory - The total iron ore inventory on March 27, 2026, was 17000, down 98 from March 20. Australian ore inventory decreased by 8, Brazilian ore inventory decreased by 44, and trader inventory decreased by 53 [1] 4. Strategy - **Night - session review**: The futures price of iron ore i2605 closed at 815 yuan/ton, i2609 at 792.5 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22.5 yuan. The price of Qingdao Port PB powder was 777 (-7) yuan/ton, and the optimal delivery product, Newman powder, was 789 yuan after discounting the warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) [1] - **Important information**: From March 23 to March 29, the total iron ore inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 120.7 tons to 1273.7 tons. In March, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indexes all returned to the expansion range. On March 31, the transaction volume of iron ore at major ports increased by 98.5% month - on - month, while the transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders decreased by 17.27% month - on - month. As of now, there are about 300 coking production enterprises in China, with a total coke production capacity of about 5.70 billion tons. In mid - March, the output of key coal enterprises increased by 4.8% month - on - month and 3.9% year - on - year [1] - **Trading strategy**: Volatile [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides daily monitoring data on iron ore basis and spreads, including futures contract prices, spreads, and basis data for various iron ore varieties [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Prices and Spreads - The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 contracts are 813.0, 791.0, and 771.5 respectively, with changes of 1.0, 3.0, and 2.0 compared to the previous day [3]. - The spreads between I05 - I09, I09 - I01, and I01 - I05 are 22.0, 19.5, and -41.5 respectively, with changes of -2.0, 1.0, and 1.0 compared to the previous day [3]. 3.2 Basis Data - The basis data for multiple iron ore varieties are presented, such as the basis of Carajás fines is 97, with no change from the previous day [7]. - Different iron ore varieties have different basis values and changes, including BRBF, Newman fines, PB fines, etc. [7]. 3.3 Adjustment of Deliverable Brands - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate) are added, with brand premiums of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [12]. - The brand premiums of existing varieties are adjusted, with only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines having a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest being 0 [12]. - The allowable range of iron grade and other element indicators is adjusted, and the quality premium and discount rules are more detailed [12]. 3.4 Variety Spreads - The spreads between different iron ore varieties are provided, such as the spread between PB lump and PB fines is 109.0, with a change of -3.0 compared to the previous day [14]. - Other spreads include Newman lump - Newman fines, Carajás fines - Newman fines, etc. [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts in March 2026 and on March 31, 2026. Index futures are expected to be weakly volatile, while lithium carbonate, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polypropylene, styrene, and ethylene glycol futures are expected to be strongly volatile [1][2]. - The report also analyzes the impact of macro - news and market conditions on the futures market, such as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, Fed's interest - rate policies, and domestic and international economic policies [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - On March 30, 2026, the A - share market bottomed out and rebounded, with the non - ferrous metal sector surging and power stocks slumping. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.68%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.81%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index hit a new low since early April last year [14]. - The U.S. three major stock indexes closed mixed on March 30, 2026. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.11%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.39%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.73%. European three major stock indexes closed up across the board [15]. 3.2 Macro - news - The G7 energy ministers, finance ministers, and central bank governors held a meeting to assess the impact of the Middle East situation on the energy market, global economy, and financial stability, and were prepared to take coordinated actions if necessary [9]. - The U.S. and Iran's negotiation progress was volatile, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and policy uncertainties increased, which affected the market sentiment [15]. 3.3 Futures Contracts Analysis 3.3.1 Index Futures - On March 30, 2026, the four major index futures contracts (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) generally showed a weakly volatile trend. In March 2026, they are expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, they are likely to continue this trend [11][12][13][15][16]. 3.3.2 Precious Metal Futures - Gold futures: On March 30, 2026, the gold futures main contract AU2606 oscillated upward. In March 2026, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to oscillate and consolidate [30]. - Silver futures: On March 30, 2026, the silver futures main contract AG2606 oscillated upward. In March 2026, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to oscillate and consolidate [38]. 3.3.3 Base Metal Futures - Copper futures: On March 30, 2026, the copper futures main contract CU2605 was weakly volatile. In March 2026, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to be weakly volatile [42]. - Aluminum futures: On March 30, 2026, the aluminum futures main contract AL2605 oscillated upward strongly. In March 2026, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to oscillate and consolidate [46]. - Tin futures: On March 30, 2026, the tin futures main contract SN2605 oscillated upward strongly. In March 2026, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to oscillate and consolidate [51]. 3.3.4 Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude oil futures: On March 30, 2026, the crude oil futures main contract SC2605 oscillated upward strongly. In March 2026, it is expected to be strongly volatile and may hit a new high since listing, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to be strongly volatile [85]. - Fuel oil futures: On March 30, 2026, the fuel oil futures main contract FU2605 oscillated upward strongly. In March 2026, it is expected to be strongly volatile and may hit a new high since listing, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to be strongly volatile [90]. - Asphalt futures: On March 30, 2026, the asphalt futures main contract BU2606 was weakly volatile. In March 2026, it is expected to be strongly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to be strongly volatile [94]. - Polypropylene, linear low - density polyethylene, PTA, PVC, methanol, ethylene glycol, etc.: These futures contracts have different trends on March 30, 2026, and are generally expected to be strongly volatile in March 2026 and have corresponding trends on March 31, 2026 [99][103][112][117][121][126]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Futures - Palm oil futures: On March 30, 2026, the palm oil futures main contract P2605 oscillated upward. On March 31, 2026, it is likely to be strongly volatile [130].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to show an oscillatory trend. The short - term trend depends on the spot liquidity issues of some varieties and the development of the US - Iran conflict, with increased volatility in the near future. The overall fundamentals are still weak, but the downside space is limited, and it will continue the high - level oscillatory rhythm [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures prices**: The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated during the day, closing at 808 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or - 0.62% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 158,000 lots, the open interest was 354,000 lots, and the settled funds were 6.29 billion yuan. It is currently oscillating between the support level of around 800 and the resistance level of around 820 [1] - **Spot prices**: Among the mainstream port spot varieties, Qingdao Port PB powder rose by 1 to 787 yuan/ton, Super Special powder rose by 1 to 672 yuan/ton, and the main swap was at 105.5 (- 0.75) US dollars/ton. The swap was oscillating at a high level, and the spot prices rose slightly [1] - **Basis and spread**: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 822.5 yuan/ton, with a basis of 14.5 yuan/ton, and the basis widened slightly. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 21.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 17.5 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis due to the impact of a hurricane that closed some Australian ports last week. Although shipments have gradually recovered and are expected to pick up later, the US - Iran conflict has disrupted the shipping and arrival rhythm. The cost of iron ore shipping has increased due to high oil prices, and the liquidity of some spot varieties is limited [2] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel mills increased on a month - on - month basis, and the production of molten iron continued to resume. The production is gradually returning to normal, and attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand [2] - **Inventory**: Iron ore port inventory decreased on a month - on - month basis, the inventory of ships at ports increased due to concentrated arrivals, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills decreased slightly [2] Macro - level Analysis - **Domestic**: Policy support continues, corporate profits are improving, and physical work volume shows a structural improvement. Industrial enterprise profits from January to February increased by 15.2% year - on - year, manufacturing profits increased by 18.9% year - on - year, and high - tech manufacturing profits increased by 58.7% year - on - year. Real estate transactions have marginally improved, but land transactions and listing prices in first - tier cities are still weak. The issuance of special bonds is relatively fast, but the elasticity of physical work volume in infrastructure may be lower than the nominal scale [4] - **Overseas**: The US economy has not stalled, but the combination of "weak demand + high oil price risk" restricts the short - term policy shift space of the Federal Reserve. The overseas macro - environment shows a pattern of "growth not stalling, inflationary disturbances not receding, and limited policy space" [4] Viewpoint Summary - The supply side of iron ore remains loose, the molten iron output on the demand side still has room for further recovery, and attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand. Port inventory has declined to some extent and has been transferred downstream. Overall, the fundamentals are still weak. Due to geopolitical disturbances, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. With a positive basis and a continuous BACK structure, the downside space is limited, and it will continue the high - level oscillatory rhythm [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the I2605 contract weakened with a reduction in positions. The Fed Chair's statement eased market concerns about interest rate hikes, and traders considered the possibility of rate cuts this year. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, while the arrivals increased. The blast furnace operating rate and hot metal output of steel mills continued to rise, port inventories declined, and the expected increase in demand will drive further inventory reduction. However, due to Trump's statement, oil prices fell, leading to a general decline in commodities. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows a downward adjustment of DIFF and DEA. It is recommended for short - term trading with attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 808.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the position volume was 353,624 hands, down 17,797 hands. The I 5 - 9 contract spread was 21.5 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was 784 hands, up 6,329 hands. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 0.00 hands, down 2,700.00 hands. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 105.45 US dollars/ton at 15:00, down 0.78 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 843 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore was 828 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 742 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 20 yuan, up 3 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 108.50 US dollars/ton, up 0.40 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.16, down 0.04. The estimated import cost was 863 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipments (weekly) were 2,472.40 tons, down 671.90 tons; the arrivals at 47 ports in China (weekly) were 2,626.70 tons, up 243.60 tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 17,666.83 tons, down 147.35 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 8,978.56 tons, down 55.50 tons. The iron ore imports (monthly) were 9,764.00 tons, down 1,475.00 tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 25.00 days, up 6 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 40.16 tons, down 0.69 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.62%, down 0.67%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 61.95 tons, down 1.18 tons. The BDI index was 2,017.00, down 14.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 30.21 US dollars/ton, down 0.28 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.98 US dollars/ton, down 0.01 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 81.05%, up 1.25%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 86.65%, up 1.10%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 6,818 tons, down 169 tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 15.67%, up 0.29%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 15.93%, down 0.28%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 19.32%, down 2.63%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 19.74%, down 2.34% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 23 to March 29, 2026, the global iron ore shipments were 2,472.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 671.9 tons. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 1,875.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 684.3 tons. Australian shipments were 1,033.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 961.9 tons, and the shipments from Australia to China were 839.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 795.6 tons. Brazilian shipments were 841.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 277.6 tons. From March 23 to March 29, 2026, the arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2,626.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 243.6 tons; the arrivals at 45 ports in China were 2,426.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 154.7 tons; the arrivals at the six northern ports were 1,198.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 147.7 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: There are expectations of a缓和 in negotiations, leading to a decline in ore prices [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: They are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon: Cost expectations are slightly rising, and bullish sentiment is high [2]. - Silicomanganese: Affected by energy information, it will have wide - range fluctuations [2][12]. - Coke: A round of price increase is expected to be implemented this week, with wide - range fluctuations [2][15]. - Coking coal: It will have wide - range fluctuations [2][16]. - Steam coal: Sentiment has weakened, and there is short - term callback pressure [2][19]. - Logs: The near - term prices are stronger than the long - term, and the positive spread is widening [2][21]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of I2605 was 813.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton (0.12%); the position was 371,421 hands, a decrease of 15,823 hands. The prices of various iron ore grades showed different changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Previous structural contradictions drove iron ore prices up. Recently, there are expectations of a缓和 in negotiations, and the driving force is expected to weaken. The 2026 government work report aims to stabilize expectations, with GDP growth adjusted to 4.5% - 5.0%. The 247 steel enterprises' daily hot metal output increased by 2.94 tons to 231.09 tons [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For RB2605, the closing price was 3,139 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.58%); the trading volume was 616,755 hands, and the position was 976,441 hands, a decrease of 99,718 hands. For HC2605, the closing price was 3,308 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.33%); the trading volume was 283,214 hands, and the position was 846,816 hands, a decrease of 72,722 hands. Spot prices in different regions showed small increases [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In February 2026, China's steel exports increased in volume and price, while imports decreased. Steel production and inventory data showed different trends in March. Diplomatic efforts were made to promote peace talks. Steel production and inventory data of key enterprises in March showed various changes. Real estate investment decreased, while industrial added value and fixed - asset investment increased [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: For ferrosilicon 2605, the closing price was 6066 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; for ferrosilicon 2607, it was 6190 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan. For silicomanganese 2605, the closing price was 6588 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; for silicomanganese 2607, it was 6632 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also changed [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. Manganese ore inventory in ports changed. Some silicon - iron plants had equipment maintenance and复产. The output and capacity utilization of silicon - iron enterprises in different regions changed. A mining company raised its offer price. Some steel mills had procurement plans [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: For JM2605, the closing price was 1214 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.4%); for J2605, it was 1753.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan (0.1%). Spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had little change [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: CCI metallurgical coal index prices remained stable. The coking coal online auction had a 7% failure rate, and prices mostly declined due to the cost pressure on coke enterprises [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral outlook [18]. Steam Coal - **Fundamentals**: The prices of steam coal in different regions and ports showed different changes, and the overseas prices also had fluctuations. The long - term agreement prices in March increased slightly [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 30, the port market sentiment weakened, with upstream quotes slightly decreasing and downstream demand weak. In January - February 2026, the national raw coal output decreased slightly [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [20]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log futures contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions also had changes, and the spreads between contracts and between spot and futures changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The 2026 government work report aimed to stabilize expectations, with GDP growth adjusted to 4.5% - 5.0% [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View No clear core view presented in the content. The report mainly provides daily arbitrage data for various futures varieties on March 31, 2026. 3. Summary by Directory I. Thermal Coal - The report shows the basis and spread data of thermal coal from March 24 to March 30, 2026. The basis values were -50.4, -45.4, -41.4, -40.4, -40.4 respectively, and the spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) were all 0.0 during this period [2]. II. Energy and Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: It includes basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from March 24 to March 30, 2026. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on March 30 was 540.36, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1641 [8]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on March 30 was -190 [10]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rubber was -800 [11]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on March 30 was 3360 [11]. III. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on March 30 was 111.0 [20][21]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of 5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, and 9(10) - 5 for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rebar was -44.0 [20]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, coke to coking coal, and the spread of rebar - hot rolled coil from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are provided. For example, the rebar to iron ore ratio on March 30 was 3.85 [20]. IV. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are given. For example, the basis of copper on March 30 was -380 [30]. - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on March 30, 2026 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (82.55) [33]. V. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans on March 30 was 6 [40]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for various agricultural products are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of soybeans was -54 [40]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The ratios and spreads of various agricultural products from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are presented. For example, the ratio of soybeans to corn on March 30 was 1.94 [40]. VI. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are given. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on March 30 was 77.95 [51]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of next - month to current - month and next - quarter to current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next - month to current - month spread of CSI 300 was -19.8 [51].