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深度专题 | 基建投资“新”周期——“反脆弱”系列专题之三
申万宏源宏观· 2025-04-07 15:17
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for infrastructure investment to "break through" in key areas as outlined in the 2025 government work report, emphasizing the need for effective investment expansion and identifying sectors with growth potential [1]. Group 1: Changes in Infrastructure Investment Since 2020 - Since 2020, infrastructure investment has shown a significant shift, with a central increase in growth rates and a contraction in finance-dependent sectors. The growth rates were only 0.9% and 0.4% in 2020 and 2021, respectively, but increased to over 4% from 2022 to 2024 due to enhanced support for infrastructure investment [2][10]. - The structure of industry investment has changed, with finance-dependent sectors declining and those aligned with economic transformation increasing. Public utility investment rose by 8.8 percentage points, while water, environment, and public facility management sectors decreased by 7.8 percentage points from 2020 to 2024 [2][12]. Group 2: Regional Growth Comparisons - Eastern regions have shifted from lagging to leading growth rates, aligning with fiscal policies favoring more mature projects. From 2020 to 2023, the compound growth rate in the eastern region rose to 9.0%, while other regions saw declines [18][19]. - Public utility investments are concentrated in the central and western regions, while information technology investments lead in the western and eastern regions. Transportation investments are transitioning from the northeast and central regions to the east, with public facility investments showing stronger resilience in the east [21]. Group 3: Strategies for Infrastructure Investment in 2025 - The 2025 government work report emphasizes a dual approach of "development and debt resolution," with a focus on dynamic adjustments to high-risk debt regions and the promotion of new investment spaces. The issuance of special refinancing bonds reached over 1.3 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, achieving over 60% of the annual plan [3][29]. - The pilot program for "self-examination and self-issuance" of special bonds is accelerating, which is expected to enhance local government investment willingness and stabilize major project investment plans. By 2025, 11 provinces plan to invest 0.5% less than the previous year, but this marks a 5.9 percentage point recovery compared to 2024 [3][36]. Group 4: Potential Growth Areas for Infrastructure Investment - Key sectors for potential infrastructure investment growth include water conservancy projects, transportation, information technology, and the power industry. Water conservancy projects are highlighted for their significant social benefits, particularly in disaster prevention and food security [4][47]. - Transportation infrastructure presents structural opportunities, especially in regions like Shanghai and Jiangsu, where investment returns are positive, aligning with the "comprehensive and multi-dimensional transportation corridor" strategy promoted by the National Development and Reform Commission [6][49]. - The new infrastructure sector is expected to become a policy focus, with significant investments anticipated in AI and related technologies, potentially exceeding 500 billion yuan by 2025 [57].