Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments regarding local government debt management in China, highlighting the dynamic adjustment of high-risk debt regions and the implications for investment opportunities and economic growth [3][4]. Group 1: Debt Risk Management - Twelve provinces have been identified as high-risk debt regions, leading to restrictions on government investment projects [3]. - The State Council has mandated a dynamic adjustment of the high-risk debt regions list to support new investment opportunities, with some provinces already exiting this list [3][5]. - Inner Mongolia has officially exited the high-risk debt region list, indicating progress in local debt management [5][6]. Group 2: Local Government Actions - Local governments are accelerating debt reduction efforts, with some provinces explicitly stating their intention to exit high-risk debt status [5][6]. - In Inner Mongolia, significant reductions in local government financing platforms and the elimination of hidden debts have been reported, contributing to the region's improved debt risk profile [8]. - Jilin Province has also emphasized the need to expedite the exit from high-risk debt status during recent financial meetings [7]. Group 3: Implications for Investment - Exiting the high-risk debt list may reduce administrative restrictions on local investment and financing, potentially fostering economic recovery and development [8]. - However, the reduction in support policies and resource allocation for regions that exit the high-risk list may pose new challenges, necessitating careful consideration by local governments [8]. - The article suggests that even after exiting the high-risk list, local governments must continue to address existing debt issues and prevent the accumulation of new hidden debts [9].

贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 摘要 行业结构上，财政依赖型行业投资下降，与经济转型适配度高的行业占比提升。 2020-2024年，公用事业 投资占比提升8.8个百分点，水利、环境和公共设施管理业下降7.8个百分点。其他两大行业变化较小，信 息相关占比小幅提升，交运仓储投资占比下降。 各地区增速比较来看，东部增速由滞后到领先，或和财政适当向成熟度较高项目倾向相匹配。 具体行业 分布来看，公用事业投资集中在中西部，信息投资以西部和东部领衔，交通投资逐渐从东北和中部切换 至东部，公共设施投资东部韧性更强。 今年基建投资如何"破局"？财政力度加大叠加化债机制创新，推动地方政府能动性提升。 债务化解呈现"发展-化债"双轮驱动特征，2025年化债节奏前置且发行速度相对较快。 2025年政府工作报 告提出"在发展中化债、在化债中发展"，强调"动态调整债务高风险地区名单，支持打开新的投资空 间"。2025年一季度，特殊再融资债发行进度达60%以上。 专项债"自审自发"试点加速落地，地方政府投资意愿逐步修复，重大项目计划投资额企稳回升。 2024年 底，国务院允许经济大省等开展专项债券项目"自审 ...