变动成本补偿
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中国广核(003816):Q3业绩低于预期广东变动成本补偿取消
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-10-31 10:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The Q3 performance was below expectations, primarily due to the cancellation of variable cost compensation in Guangdong [5] - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, with revenue at 20.556 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year, and net profit at 2.624 billion yuan, down 8.8% year-on-year [7] - The decline in electricity prices has notably impacted the company's earnings, with the average market transaction price in Guangdong dropping to approximately 0.372 yuan/kWh in Q3 2025 from 0.402-0.405 yuan/kWh in the same period last year [7] - The company has 20 nuclear power units under construction, which will support long-term growth, with the first unit expected to be operational in H2 2025 [7] - The cancellation of the variable cost compensation mechanism in Guangdong is expected to positively impact the company's annual long-term contract electricity price by approximately 0.02 yuan/kWh starting in 2026 [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 82.549 billion yuan (2023), 86.804 billion yuan (2024), 85.734 billion yuan (2025E), 89.262 billion yuan (2026E), and 92.637 billion yuan (2027E) [6] - The expected net profit for the same period is: 10.725 billion yuan (2023), 10.814 billion yuan (2024), 10.001 billion yuan (2025E), 10.804 billion yuan (2026E), and 11.299 billion yuan (2027E) [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are: 0.21 yuan (2023), 0.21 yuan (2024), 0.20 yuan (2025E), 0.21 yuan (2026E), and 0.22 yuan (2027E) [6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 9.47% in 2023 to 8.00% in 2025E, before slightly recovering [6]