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银行业周度追踪2025年第41周:如何展望银行股行情的持续性?-20251019
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-19 13:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking sector is "Positive" and is maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - There is still divergence in the market regarding the sustainability of the banking stock market. However, it is believed that valuation recovery will continue. From a strategic perspective, it is essential to view the relationship between banking stocks and market sentiment dialectically. In the medium to long term, undervalued banking stocks align with the market's slow bull direction, as the index has been reaching new highs over the past year. In the short term, the performance of growth stocks benefiting from high-risk preferences may diverge from low-risk banking stocks, which indirectly help stabilize the index [6][38] - The fundamental logic supporting the valuation recovery of banking stocks remains solid. The trend of establishing a bottom line for significant risks in urban investment, real estate, and capital is clear, with policies still supporting urban investment debt and orderly capital replenishment for important banks. Mainstream banks continue to show stable growth in performance, with revenue growth points shifting from investment income to net interest income since 2025. It is expected that more banks will see a reversal in net interest income growth as deposit costs continue to decline in 2026 [6][39] Summary by Sections Market Performance - This week, the banking index rose by 5.0%, outperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices by 7.3% and 10.7%, respectively. The market's risk appetite has decreased since the fourth quarter, but the banking sector has seen significant relative gains due to a valuation recovery [2][8] - Individual stocks such as Chongqing Bank and Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank led the gains, while the stock price of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank showed notable elasticity as its convertible bonds approach maturity [19][21] Trading Dynamics - Each round of adjustment presents opportunities for low-valuation configurations. The mid-term dividend has already started, and the demand for dividend assets from absolute return funds remains unchanged. The pressure from new funds and the maturity of existing non-standard assets will push the dividend yield of banking stocks to continue declining [7][39] - The trading volume and turnover rate of state-owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks have decreased compared to last week, but the turnover rate of banking stocks has begun to rise again, indicating a change in market risk appetite [10][31] Convertible Bonds - Attention is drawn to the strong redemption trading opportunities for convertible bonds in the banking sector. As the banking sector rises, the stock prices of convertible bond banks are approaching their strong redemption prices. The recent rebound in the stock price of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank has been driven by active conversions by major shareholders [9][26] Future Outlook - The market remains optimistic about the effectiveness of anti-involution measures and the expected recovery of the PPI next year. If macroeconomic recovery resolves the asset shortage contradiction, the fundamentals of banking stocks will benefit accordingly. Additionally, local state-owned assets and industrial capital continue to have a positive outlook on banking stocks, with frequent increases in holdings by major shareholders and management since the third quarter [7][39]