中通快递 20260201 摘要 中通快递通过"同建共享"理念，将网络合作伙伴转变为股东，形成利 益共同体，有效提升了整体网络管理效率，并为后续转运中心自动化升 级奠定了基础。创始人赖梅松持股比例为 26.4%，体现了该理念。 2016 年至 2025 年前三季度，中通累计资本开支超过 570 亿元，显著 领先于竞争对手。2025 年前三季度资本开支约 43 亿元，主要用于设备、 土地、车队扩展及设施升级。截至 2025 年第三季度，拥有超 1 万辆自 有干线运输车队和 761 套自动化分拣设备。 中通快递市场份额总体保持增长趋势，2024 年虽有阶段性回落，但 2025 年下半年起，随着行业反内卷和跨境价格回升，以及电商平台合 规监管强化，中通凭借其品牌和服务优势，市场份额逐步恢复并提升。 中通通过扩充自有运输车辆、优化运输路线和车辆调度，以及升级自动 分拣技术，显著降低了单票运输和分拣成本。单票运输成本从 2016 年 的 0.83 元降至 2025 年前三季度的 0.36 元，单票分拣成本从 2016 年 的 0.43 元降至 2025 年前三季度的 0.225 元。 Q&A 中通快递在业务量和服务质量 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities has given ZTO Express (02057) an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of HKD 195.99, highlighting the company's "co-building and sharing" concept as a solid foundation for a stable franchise network, which will help maintain its leading position in the industry [1]. Group 1: Business Model and Network Stability - The "co-building and sharing" concept was introduced by ZTO Express in 2010, and by 2015, the company had transitioned some major franchisees into shareholders, making it the first and only company in the express delivery sector to do so. This alignment of interests has fostered trust and stability within the network, contributing to ZTO's leadership in the industry [2]. Group 2: Investment in Core Assets - Since 2013, ZTO Express has benefited from significant early investments in sorting and other equipment, along with effective network management, leading to a steady increase in market share. By 2016, the company achieved a market share of 14.4%, and it has continued to invest in core assets (land, facilities, vehicles, sorting equipment) while maintaining efficient network management, securing its position as the industry leader [3]. Group 3: Balanced Development - The company focuses on achieving a balance between business volume, market share growth, and profitability, while effectively managing costs. Following improvements in the industry landscape, ZTO has successfully increased both business volume and profit per shipment [4]. Group 4: Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Cathay Securities projects ZTO Express's revenue for 2025-2027 to be HKD 471.07 billion, HKD 516.85 billion, and HKD 577.06 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 6%, 10%, and 12%, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be HKD 95.65 billion, HKD 106.33 billion, and HKD 119.29 billion, with year-on-year growth of 8%, 11%, and 12%. The estimated EPS for these years is HKD 11.89, HKD 13.22, and HKD 14.83. The target price of HKD 195.99 corresponds to a 15x P/E ratio for 2025, supporting the "Accumulate" rating [5].