Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for J&T Express [1][7][17] Core Insights - J&T Express reported a revenue of USD 12.16 billion for 2025, representing an 18.5% year-on-year growth, and an adjusted net profit of USD 425 million, which is a 112.3% increase year-on-year, exceeding expectations [7] - The company solidified its leading position in Southeast Asia, achieving a business volume of 7.66 billion parcels in 2025, a 67.8% increase, with a market share of 34.4% [7] - In China, the company maintained resilience in profitability despite price competition, with a business volume of 22.07 billion parcels, an 11.4% increase, and a market share of 11.3% [7] - The new market regions achieved a turnaround with an adjusted EBIT of USD 3.8 million in 2025, benefiting from e-commerce growth and local partnerships [7] - The profit forecast for 2026-2028 has been raised, with expected adjusted net profits of USD 702 million, USD 906 million, and USD 1.05 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 76.18%, 29.08%, and 15.86% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are USD 14.87 billion, USD 17.72 billion, and USD 20.87 billion respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 22.32%, 19.15%, and 17.77% [2][8] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are USD 702 million, USD 906 million, and USD 1.05 billion, with respective growth rates of 76.18%, 29.08%, and 15.86% [2][8] - The projected PE ratios for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 15x, 11x, and 10x respectively [2][8]

Financial Performance - J&T Express reported a 2025 adjusted net profit of $425 million, exceeding market expectations, driven by strong growth in Southeast Asia and resilience in China[5] - Revenue for 2025 increased by 19% year-on-year to $12.158 billion, with a gross margin improvement of 1.5 percentage points to 12.0%[5] - Adjusted EBIT and EBITDA grew by 87.9% and 34.8% respectively, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 97% to $198 million[5] Operational Highlights - Southeast Asia's market share increased by 5.8 percentage points to 34.4%, supported by e-commerce growth and key customer contributions[5] - All business lines, including new markets and cross-border operations, achieved breakeven at the adjusted EBIT level in 2025[5] - The volume of Southeast Asia business grew by 68%, while single ticket revenue decreased by 17% and costs decreased by 16.2%[5] Market Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in Southeast Asia and new markets in 2026, leveraging e-commerce benefits[5] - The Chinese market is showing resilience, with policies aimed at reducing competition expected to improve single ticket revenue and profitability[5] Risks and Catalysts - Positive signals for profitability may arise from moderate price declines and cost optimization in the Chinese market[6] - Risks include potential underperformance in e-commerce development in Southeast Asia, continued currency depreciation, and intensified price competition in China[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for J&T Express, reflecting confidence in its competitive advantages and growth potential in Southeast Asia and emerging markets like Brazil and the Middle East [1]. Core Insights - J&T's adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to grow by 112% year-on-year to $425 million, exceeding consensus estimates by 22% and 16% [1]. - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in package volume, particularly in Southeast Asia, where it is projected to capture a 34.4% market share, up by 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 147 from HKD 134, indicating a strong upside potential [1]. Revenue Summary - Total revenue for FY25 is forecasted at $12.158 billion, representing an 18.5% year-on-year growth [3]. - Adjusted net profit for FY25 is estimated at $425.4 million, with an EPS of $4.87 [3]. - The company anticipates continued revenue growth, with projections of $14.117 billion for FY26 and $16.354 billion for FY27 [3]. Operational Highlights - In the first half of 2025, J&T's package volume in Southeast Asia is expected to reach 3.226 billion units, a 57.9% increase year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) in Southeast Asia is projected to decrease by 17.9% to $0.61 in 1H25 [2]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the first half of 2025 is forecasted to be $436 million, a 24.2% increase year-on-year [2]. Valuation - The report sets a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 14x for Southeast Asia, reflecting J&T's strong pricing power and market share growth [14]. - For China, a target multiple of 6.5x is established, aligning with major peers [15]. - The overall equity value is estimated at $16.575 billion, leading to a target price of HKD 14.7 [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The mid-term outlook for the oil shipping industry remains positive, with increased value in dividend assets for recent allocations [1] - High oil prices are raising stagflation expectations, highlighting the defensive value of dividend assets [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of oil prices on industry profitability across various sectors [1] Shipping Sector Summary - The shipping industry is experiencing rising freight rates due to escalating regional conflicts and increased fuel costs, with significant price increases noted in major shipping routes [11][29] - The demand for oil tankers is expected to surge if the geopolitical situation stabilizes, despite current challenges in the Strait of Hormuz affecting shipping volumes [7][13] - Recommended stocks in the shipping sector include COSCO Shipping Energy, COSCO Shipping Holdings, and others [7] Infrastructure Sector Summary - Recent data shows a slight increase in truck traffic and stable performance in major infrastructure assets, with a focus on dividend yield [20][19] - The report suggests that port assets are currently undervalued and could benefit from geopolitical tensions, making them attractive for investment [20] - Recommended stocks include Anhui Expressway, Datong Railway, and others [20] Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery sector shows signs of recovery with stable demand growth, despite a slight decline in recent weekly volumes [21][22] - The report highlights the low valuation of the sector and the potential for profit growth due to rising fuel surcharges [22] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, Shentong Express, and others [22] Aviation Sector Summary - The aviation industry is witnessing a steady increase in passenger volume, but there are concerns regarding the impact of rising oil prices on profitability [23][24] - The report notes that domestic ticket prices have increased, which may help offset fuel costs [24] - The report advises monitoring the actual ticket price performance and its ability to cover fuel costs [24]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved total revenue of $12.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.5% from $10.3 billion in 2024 [16] - Adjusted net profit reached $430 million, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 112.3% [5][23] - Total gross profit for the year was CNY 1.46 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.7% [17] - Adjusted EBIT reached CNY 566 million, up 87.9% year-on-year [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Southeast Asia handled 7.7 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 67.8%, with revenue reaching $4.5 billion, up 39.8% [5][6] - In China, the company handled 22.1 billion parcels, representing an 11.4% year-on-year increase, with revenue growing by 5% to CNY 6.7 billion [9][19] - New markets saw parcel volume grow to 400 million, a year-on-year increase of 43.6%, with revenue growing by 51.2% to CNY 870 million [11][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's market share in Southeast Asia reached 34.4%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [6][30] - In China, market share reached 11.1% [9] - The Southeast Asia e-commerce market is projected to maintain a high CAGR of 15%-20% from 2026 to 2030 [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to strengthen investment in global network infrastructure and enhance customer experience while expanding into new markets [14] - Focus on high-quality growth and operational efficiency, transitioning from price-driven competition to value-based competition [9][54] - Plans to develop Latin America into a key market, similar to Southeast Asia, while exploring opportunities in Europe and North America [39] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in sustaining growth momentum in Southeast Asia due to strong e-commerce demand and ongoing capacity investments [28][31] - The anti-involution policies in China are expected to support pricing stability and improve service quality, contributing to a healthier competitive landscape [54] - The company remains optimistic about the long-term growth potential in new markets, leveraging operational expertise from China and Southeast Asia [21][60] Other Important Information - The Guangzhou Huadu Sorting Center commenced operations in Q4 2025, enhancing sorting and transit efficiency [10] - The company recorded a net cash inflow from operating activities of CNY 1.09 billion, a 34.8% year-on-year increase [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can the accelerating trend of parcel volume growth in Southeast Asia be sustained into 2026? - Management believes the Southeast Asia e-commerce sector is in a rapid growth stage, with major platforms increasing investments, driving strong volume momentum [28][31] Question: What is the current status of non-platform business development in Southeast Asia? - Non-platform business is growing but at a slower rate than e-commerce; however, it commands higher margins and is a strategic focus for the company [32] Question: What is the company's global expansion strategy considering geopolitical tensions? - The company is closely monitoring markets and working with e-commerce platforms to enter high-growth potential markets at the right time [37] Question: What is the CapEx allocation plan for the next 2-3 years? - The company is planning capacity expansions in Southeast Asia and maintaining communication with customers for volume forecasts [40] Question: What is the company's approach to shareholder returns? - The company has a share repurchase program and will execute it when the market undervalues its intrinsic value [43] Question: How has the Southeast Asia market performed in terms of growth this year? - The company recorded strong growth in January and February, continuing to follow its 3PL strategy to strengthen its position in Southeast Asia [45][46] Question: How does the company assess the evolution of anti-involution policies? - Management believes these policies drive quality improvement and operational efficiency, shifting focus from price competition to service quality [53] Question: How is the company balancing volume growth and profitability improvement in China? - The company focuses on high-quality growth, enhancing collaboration with e-commerce customers, and refining its operational network [55][56]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved total revenue of $12.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.5% from $10.3 billion in 2024 [16] - Adjusted net profit reached $430 million, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 112.3% [5][23] - Total gross profit for the year was CNY 1.46 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.7% [17] - Adjusted EBIT reached CNY 566 million, up 87.9% year-on-year [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Southeast Asia handled 7.7 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 67.8%, with revenue reaching $4.5 billion, up 39.8% [6][18] - In China, the company handled 22.1 billion parcels, representing an 11.4% year-on-year increase, with revenue growing by 5% to CNY 6.7 billion [9][19] - New markets handled 400 million parcels, a year-on-year increase of 43.6%, achieving positive Adjusted EBIT for the first time [11][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's market share in Southeast Asia reached 34.4%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [6][29] - In China, the market share reached 11.1% [9] - The Southeast Asia e-commerce market is projected to maintain a high CAGR of 15%-20% from 2026 to 2030 [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to strengthen investment in global network infrastructure and export China's mature operational system [14] - Focus on high-quality growth and enhancing customer experience through improved service quality and operational efficiency [52][54] - Plans to expand into additional Latin American markets such as Colombia and Peru, aiming to develop Latin America into a key growth region [37] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth potential of new markets, particularly in Latin America, due to high GDP and low e-commerce penetration [12][13] - The company is adapting to the evolving competitive landscape in China, focusing on service quality and operational efficiency rather than price competition [51] - Management believes that the anti-involution policies will continue to support pricing stability and improve service quality in the industry [52] Other Important Information - The Guangzhou Huadu Sorting Center commenced operations, enhancing sorting and transit efficiency [10] - The company recorded a net cash inflow from operating activities of CNY 1.09 billion, a 34.8% year-on-year increase [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can the accelerating trend of parcel volume growth in Southeast Asia be sustained into 2026? - Management believes the Southeast Asia e-commerce sector is in a rapid growth stage, with strong volume momentum expected to continue [28][30] Question: What is the current status of non-platform business development in Southeast Asia? - Non-platform business is growing but at a slower rate than e-commerce; however, it commands higher margins and is a strategic focus for the company [31][32] Question: What is the company's current global expansion strategy? - The company is closely monitoring global e-commerce trends and plans to expand into new markets, particularly in Latin America, while ensuring capacity aligns with customer needs [36][37] Question: What is the company's approach to shareholder returns? - The company has a share repurchase program and will execute it when the market undervalues its intrinsic value [42][43] Question: How does the company assess the impact of anti-involution policies on the competitive landscape? - Management sees these policies as beneficial for improving service quality and operational efficiency, shifting focus away from price competition [51][52]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved total revenue of $12.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.5% from $10.3 billion in 2024 [14] - Adjusted net profit reached $430 million, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 112.3% [5] - Total gross profit for the year was CNY 1.46 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.7% [15] - Adjusted EBIT reached CNY 566 million, up 87.9% year-on-year [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Southeast Asia handled 7.7 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 67.8%, with revenue reaching $4.5 billion, up 39.8% [5][16] - In China, the company handled 22.1 billion parcels, representing an 11.4% year-on-year increase, with revenue growing by 5% to CNY 6.7 billion [7][18] - New markets saw parcel volume growth of 43.6%, handling 400 million parcels, with adjusted EBIT turning from a loss to a profit for the first time [10][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's market share in Southeast Asia increased to 34.4%, up 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [5][28] - In China, market share reached 11.1%, with a focus on improving service quality and transitioning to value-based competition [8][18] - The Latin American market is expected to maintain rapid expansion, driven by the growth of e-commerce platforms [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to strengthen investment in global network infrastructure and enhance customer experience while expanding in core and new markets [12] - The strategy includes leveraging China's operational expertise in new markets and focusing on high-quality growth rather than just volume [52] - The company is actively exploring opportunities in Latin America and beyond, including Europe and North America [36] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in sustaining growth in Southeast Asia, with the e-commerce market projected to maintain a high CAGR of 15%-20% from 2026 to 2030 [27] - The anti-involution policies in China are expected to support pricing stability and improve service quality across the industry [50] - The company remains optimistic about the long-term growth potential in new markets, aiming to replicate the success seen in Southeast Asia [21] Other Important Information - The Guangzhou Huadu Sorting Center commenced operations, enhancing sorting and transit efficiency in the Greater Bay Area [9] - The company recorded a net cash inflow from operating activities of CNY 1.09 billion, growing 34.8% year-on-year [22] - As of December 31, 2025, total cash and cash equivalents amounted to CNY 2.2 billion, up 31% from the previous year [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can the accelerating trend of parcel volume growth in Southeast Asia be sustained into 2026? - Management believes the Southeast Asia e-commerce sector is in a rapid growth stage, with major platforms increasing investments, driving strong volume momentum [27][29] Question: What is the current status of non-platform business development in Southeast Asia? - The company is actively developing non-platform customers, which are growing but at a slower rate than e-commerce volume, while contributing higher margins [30][31] Question: What is the company's current global expansion strategy considering geopolitical tensions? - The company is closely monitoring markets and working with e-commerce platforms to enter high-growth potential markets at the right time [35][36] Question: What is the strategy for shareholder returns going forward? - The company has a share repurchase program and will execute it when the market undervalues its intrinsic value, funded through operational cash and convertible bond proceeds [41][42] Question: How does the company assess the evolution of anti-involution policies in China? - Management believes these policies drive quality improvement and cost reduction, shifting focus from price competition to service quality [50]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved total revenue of $12.2 billion, representing an 18.5% year-on-year increase from $10.3 billion in 2024 [16][17] - Adjusted net profit amounted to $430 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 112.3% [5][23] - Adjusted EBIT reached $566 million, up 87.9% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [17][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Southeast Asia handled 7.7 billion parcels in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 67.8%, with revenue reaching $4.5 billion, up 39.8% [5][18] - In China, the company managed 22.1 billion parcels, representing an 11.4% year-on-year increase, with revenue growing by 5% to $6.7 billion [9][19] - New markets saw parcel volume growth of 43.6%, with revenue increasing by 51.2% year-on-year to $870 million [11][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market share in Southeast Asia reached 34.4%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [5][29] - In China, the market share was reported at 11.1%, with a focus on improving service quality amid intense competition [9][19] - The company is expanding its presence in Latin America, targeting Colombia and Peru as new markets for growth [12][37] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to strengthen investment in global network infrastructure and enhance customer experience while expanding in core markets [13][14] - A focus on high-quality growth is emphasized, with efforts to deepen collaboration with e-commerce platforms and optimize operational efficiency [54][55] - The company plans to leverage its experience from China and Southeast Asia to capture growth in new markets, particularly in Latin America [12][20] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in sustaining growth in Southeast Asia, driven by the rapid penetration of e-commerce [28][30] - The anti-involution policies in China are seen as beneficial for improving service quality and operational efficiency [52][53] - The company remains optimistic about the long-term potential of new markets, with plans to invest in infrastructure to enhance local efficiency [60] Other Important Information - The company recorded a net cash inflow from operating activities of CNY 1.09 billion, a 34.8% increase year-on-year [24] - Free cash flow reached CNY 494 million, representing a 96.1% year-on-year increase, highlighting enhanced cash generation capabilities [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can the accelerating parcel volume growth in Southeast Asia be sustained into 2026? - Management believes the Southeast Asia e-commerce sector is in a rapid growth stage, with a projected CAGR of 15%-20% from 2026 to 2030, supporting continued volume momentum [28][29] Question: What is the current status of non-platform business development in Southeast Asia? - Non-platform business is growing but at a slower rate than e-commerce volume; however, it commands higher margins and is a strategic focus for the company [31][32] Question: What is the company's global expansion strategy considering geopolitical tensions? - The company is closely monitoring global e-commerce trends and plans to expand into new markets, particularly in Latin America, while assessing local conditions for optimal entry [37] Question: What is the approach to shareholder returns? - The company has completed share repurchases and plans to continue this strategy when the market undervalues its intrinsic value, funded by operational cash flow [44][45] Question: How has the Southeast Asia market performed so far this year? - The company reported strong growth in January and February, continuing to follow its strategy to be a leading third-party logistics provider in the region [46][48] Question: What specific cost reduction initiatives have been implemented in new markets? - Cost per parcel in new markets decreased due to economies of scale and operational improvements, including automation and optimized franchise models [58][60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [5] Core Insights - ZTO Express achieved a total business volume of 38.52 billion packages in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.3%. In Q4 alone, the business volume reached 10.56 billion packages, up 9.2% year-on-year [1] - The adjusted net profit for the entire year was 9.51 billion, a decline of 6.3% year-on-year, while Q4 adjusted net profit was 2.69 billion, down 1.4% year-on-year [1] - The company’s market share increased from 18.8% in the same period last year to 19.6%, marking the first quarter of year-on-year market share growth since Q1 2023 [1] - The company expects a package volume of 42.37 to 43.52 billion for 2026, indicating a year-on-year growth of approximately 10%-13% [2] - The average revenue per package in Q4 was 1.35 yuan, an increase of 0.04 yuan year-on-year and 0.14 yuan quarter-on-quarter, driven by a reduction in price competition and growth in the parcel business [2] Financial Performance - In Q4, the core cost per package decreased by 0.04 yuan year-on-year, with transportation costs dropping from 0.40 yuan to 0.37 yuan and sorting costs from 0.27 yuan to 0.26 yuan [3] - The company has implemented a dividend payout policy of at least 40% of the previous year's adjusted net profit, increasing to 50% starting in 2026. Additionally, a share buyback plan of 1.5 billion USD over two years has been approved [3] - The projected net profits for 2026-2028 are 10.42 billion, 11.69 billion, and 13.08 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.7X, 11.3X, and 10.1X [4]

FY2025 Results Presentation March 2026 Disclaimer By attending the meeting where this presentation is made, or by reading the presentation materials and ancillary materials, you agree to be bound by the following limitations: 2 • The information in this presentation has been prepared by representatives of J&T Global Express Limited (the "Company", and together with its subsidiaries and consolidated affiliated entities, the "Group") for use in presentations by the Group at investor meetings for information p ...