尽管Shopee、Lazada 入局自建物流，但极兔作为第三方物流服务商，可以集成多平台的包裹量，以实 现规模效应和降本。而以Tiktok 为代表的新增长动能，为极兔带来显著单量红利，公司市占率稳步提 升。根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，按包裹量计，自2020 年起极兔速递一直是东南亚市场排名第一的快 递运营商。按包裹量计算，2024 年极兔在东南亚的市占率为28.6%，对比2023年全年提升3.2 个百分 点。 根据Momentum Works 最新发布的《2025 东南亚电商报告》，2024 年东南亚平台电商总GMV 达到1284 亿美元，区域市场由Shopee、Lazada 和TikTok Shop三大平台主导。其中Shopee 以668 亿美元列首位， 占据52%市场份额；TikTok Shop 增长强劲，以226 亿美元位居第二，Lazada 以180 亿美元排名第三， Tokopedia 以128 亿排名第四，Tiktok+Tokopedia 合计354 亿美元，占比接近28%。 Tiktok 近年来在东南亚市场势头强劲，根据Momentum Works 此前统计，2022年TikTok Shop 在东 ...

证券研究报告 极兔速递-W (1519 HK) 港股通 逐鹿海外电商高增，龙头优势尽显 华泰研究 公告点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 2025 年 7 月 11 日│中国香港 仓储物流 | 目标价(港币): | 10.80 | | --- | --- | | 林珊 | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570520080001 | linshan@htsc.com | | SFC No. BIR018 | +(86) 21 2897 2209 | | 沈晓峰 | 研究员 | SAC No. S0570516110001 SFC No. BCG366 shenxiaofeng@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2088 基本数据 | 目标价 (港币) | 10.80 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (港币 截至 7 月 10 日) | 9.03 | | 市值 (港币百万) | 80,990 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (港币百万) | 178.76 | | 52 周价格范围 (港币) | 4.53-9.14 | | BVPS (美元) | 0.32 | 股价走势图 (36) (17) ...

央视网消息：7月10日，多部门披露最新数据。数据显示，我国经济保持稳中向好发展态势。 其中，新能源汽车产销量分别完成696.8万辆和693.7万辆，同比分别增长41.4%和40.3%，新能源汽车新车销量达到汽车新车总销量的44.3%。 出口表现依旧亮眼，其中新能源汽车出口106万辆，同比增长75.2%。 2025年，夏粮播种面积保持基本稳定。在25个有夏粮生产的省（区、市）中，20个播种面积增加。西部部分地区持续调整夏秋作物种植结构， 调减夏杂粮、春小麦等夏收作物，改种玉米等秋粮作物，夏粮播种面积有所减少。2025年，全国夏粮单产375.6公斤/亩，比上年增加0.1公斤， 基本持平。 上半年汽车工业多项指标实现两位数增长 中国汽车工业协会7月10日发布数据显示，2025年1至6月份，汽车产销量均超过1500万辆，同比均实现10%以上较高增长。 今年我国夏粮实现稳产丰收 国家统计局7月10日发布的数据显示，2025年，全国夏粮实现稳产丰收，产量达到2994.8亿斤，为稳定全年粮食生产奠定了坚实基础。 今年以来我国快递业务量超千亿件 国家邮政局数据显示，截至7月9日，2025年以来，我国快递业务量已突破1000亿 ...

7月10日，国家统计局、国家邮政局、自然资源部、中国汽车工业协会等发布了我国夏粮、快递、矿 产、汽车等多个方面的最新数据。这些跃动的数据，折射出我国经济持续向好的活力与潜力。 国家统计局7月10日发布数据：今年全国夏粮播种面积基本稳定，单产持平，夏粮总产量14973.8万吨 （2994.8亿斤），其中小麦产量13816.0万吨（2763.2亿斤），全国夏粮实现稳产丰收。 今年上半年，全国非油气矿产勘查投入资金69.93亿元，同比增长23.9%，保持快速增长势头，同比增幅 持续扩大。其中，社会资金33.59亿元，同比增长28.2%，占矿产勘查总投入的48.0%，企业投入矿产勘 查的积极性不断增强；中央和地方财政资金36.34亿元，同比增长20.1%。 汽车产销快速增长 夏粮实现稳产丰收 全国夏粮播种面积3.99亿亩，和上年相比保持基本稳定。夏粮单产375.6公斤/亩，与上年基本持平。夏 粮实现稳产丰收，为稳定全年粮食生产奠定了坚实基础，为应对复杂严峻国际形势、推动经济持续回升 向好提供了有力支撑。 快递业务量超千亿 国家邮政局7月10日发布的监测数据显示：截至7月9日，今年我国快递业务量已超1000亿件，比20 ...

Core Insights - The rapid growth of China's express delivery industry is highlighted by the early surpassing of 1 trillion packages this year, occurring 35 days earlier than last year [1][2] - The increase in express delivery volume reflects the ongoing vitality of the Chinese economy and the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [2][3] Group 1: Market Potential - The express delivery sector has seen continuous growth, with package volume exceeding 1 trillion for five consecutive years, indicating an expanding consumer market and increasing e-commerce penetration [3] - Policies promoting consumption, such as the "old-for-new" exchange program, are injecting new momentum into the market, enhancing the role of the postal and express delivery industry [3] Group 2: Logistics Efficiency - Improved logistics channels are evident, with efficient operations in regions like Yiwu, where daily shipments reach nearly 150,000 packages, ensuring timely delivery across the country [4] - The development of infrastructure, including high-speed rail and highways, has facilitated more efficient and convenient logistics transportation [4] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The integration of advanced technologies such as 5G, IoT, and AI is driving the smart upgrade of the express delivery industry, enhancing service efficiency and response speed [5][6] - The use of unmanned vehicles in delivery processes has significantly reduced costs and emissions, with a reported 40% decrease in delivery costs and zero tailpipe emissions [5]

Group 1 - The express delivery industry in China continues to maintain high growth, with the volume of express deliveries exceeding 100 billion pieces by July 9, 2023, 35 days earlier than expected for 2024 [2] - The rapid growth is attributed to policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, particularly the "old-for-new" replacement policy for consumer goods [2][3] - The express delivery sector has achieved a significant scale economy effect, enhancing its ability to drive industrial and economic growth [2] Group 2 - The integration of the express delivery industry with manufacturing and other sectors has expanded its service scope and development space, with over 1,600 key projects generating more than 1 million yuan in revenue [2] - The widespread application of technologies such as 5G, IoT, and AI is accelerating the intelligent upgrade of the express delivery industry [3] - The industry is facing intense competition, leading to ongoing price wars that have affected service quality [3][4] Group 3 - In the first five months of 2025, the average price of express delivery services was 7.5 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%, with the first quarter seeing an average price of 7.7 yuan, down 8.8% [4] - Despite calls to avoid price wars, companies are compelled to lower prices to gain market share, significantly impacting firms like SF Express, which reported a 3.4% decline in average revenue per ticket [4] Group 4 - Recent government initiatives aim to combat "involutionary" competition in the express delivery sector, emphasizing the need for improved industry regulation and service quality [5]

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 极兔速递（01519.HK）重大事项点评 推荐（维持） Q2 东南亚件量同比高增 66%，持续看好公 司三市场齐发力 ❖ 极兔公告二季度经营数据，东南亚件量同比高增 66%。 Q2 集团总日均单量 8120 万票，同比+23.5%；其中东南亚日均单量 1850 万票， 同比高增 66%，中国区 Q2 业务量增速 14.7%，日均单量达 6170 万票，新市 场 Q2 件量增速 23.7%，日均单量 98 万票。上半年合计，集团日均总单量 7690 万，同比+26%，东南亚同比+57%，中国区+19%，新市场+21%。 ❖ Tiktok 东南亚电商增长势头强劲 根据 Momentum Works 最新发布的《2025 东南亚电商报告》，2024 年东南亚平 台电商总 GMV 达到 1284 亿美元，区域市场由 Shopee、Lazada 和 TikTok Shop 三大平台主导。其中 Shopee 以 668 亿美元列首位，占据 52%市场份额； TikTok Shop 增长强劲，以 226 亿美元位居第二，Lazada 以 180 亿美元排名第 三，Tokopedia 以 1 ...

作为国内快递市场的"后来者"，极兔速递(1519.HK)在经历了海外市场起网，杀回国内市场，通过低价 策略抢占市场份额以及并购重组、登陆资本市场等一系列动作之后，已经从最初那个搅动国内快递市场 格局的鲶鱼开始逐渐成为行业中一个不容小视的角色。 7月8日发布的2025年第二季度及上半年主要经营数据显示，极兔速递在今年第二季度实现包裹量约73.9 亿件，同比增长23.5%；日均包裹量8,120万件。整个2025上半年，极兔速递总包裹量达到139.9亿件， 同比增长达到27%，日均包裹量达到7,690万件。 "前几年我曾经试过用极兔发货，当时也是考虑价格比较实惠，想节省点成本，但用了一段时间效果不 太好，配送速度比不过其他几家快递，而且投诉率也比较高，后来就不太敢用了，"一位在国内几家主 流电商平台均开通店铺售卖生活日用品的私营业主近日在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，"不过最 近一段时间发现其他同业很多也都在用极兔，就重新试了一段时间，虽然价格要比前几年高不少，但配 送效率和服务提升还是很明显的，而且较其他快递依然有价格优势，所以就又开始用了。" 极兔速递方面表示，在国内市场一直持续推动网络建设和运营优化，通过提 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [5] Core Views - Geopolitical events have caused significant fluctuations in oil shipping rates in H1 2025, with a notable increase in rates due to sanctions and geopolitical tensions [1] - OPEC+ is expected to boost oil shipping demand in H2 2025 through increased production, despite weak global oil consumption growth [2] - The transportation sector is experiencing mixed performance, with shipping and port sub-sectors showing positive trends while aviation and express delivery face challenges [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - In H1 2025, geopolitical events led to a sharp rise in oil shipping rates, particularly in January due to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil tankers, followed by a high demand for compliant oil transport [1] - The BDTI index reached 984 points by June 30, 2025, up 15.4% year-to-date, while the BDTI TD3C-TCE reported a daily rate of $29,300, an increase of 37.0% [1] 2. Oil Shipping - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August 2025, which is expected to support oil shipping demand despite a downward revision in global oil consumption growth forecasts [2] - The IEA predicts a global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, with non-OPEC+ countries contributing 1.4 million barrels and OPEC+ 400,000 barrels [2] 3. Sector Performance - The transportation sector's performance over the past five trading days showed the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.40%, while the transportation sector index fell by 0.3% [3] - The shipping sub-sector led gains with a 1.91% increase, while aviation faced a decline of 2.74% [3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises in the transportation sector, particularly in highways, railways, and ports, due to their high dividend yields and value [4] - It also highlights the potential for recovery in oil shipping and container shipping, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [4] 5. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report includes earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the transportation sector, indicating a positive outlook for those involved in oil and container shipping [78]

行业指数 证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2025 年 07 月 09 日 估值低位，关注行业竞争格局变化及贸易政策影响 快递物流行业 2025 年中期策略报告 周期/交通运输 本篇报告回顾了快递物流板块 2025 年上半年基本面变化及市场表现，维持对快 递物流行业的"推荐"投资评级。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 129 | 2.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3109.7 | 3.5 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2869.4 | 3.5 | % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -0.1 5.9 18.7 相对表现 -3.3 0.4 1.2 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -10 0 10 20 30 Jul/24 Nov/24 Feb/25 Jun/25 (%) 交通运输 沪深300 相关报告 1、《航空行业 2025 年中期策略报告 —持续关注行业供需再平衡进程》 2025-07-08 2、《招商交通运输行业周报—OPEC+ 拟加大 8 月增产幅度，快递价格有望 边际修复》2025-07-06 3、《交运基础设施行业 2 ...