Core Viewpoint - Understanding the historical earnings cycle of a company is crucial before conducting stock analysis, especially for cyclical companies like Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) [1] Group 1: Earnings Cycle Analysis - Investing in high-quality cyclical stocks during a downturn is preferred, with a guideline that earnings must decline by 50% or more before recovering within 5 years [3] - Micron is identified as a high-quality cyclical stock with a solid long-term growth earnings trend, making it potentially profitable in the medium term [3] - Historical price declines of Micron since 2003 show that the stock typically drops between 50% to 85% from peak prices, taking 2-5 years to recover [4][6] Group 2: Business Viability and Market Conditions - The current peak revenue of Micron is comparable to previous cycles, which is acceptable for short cycles, but a downward trend in revenue from previous peaks is undesirable [9] - The company has survived for over 40 years, instilling confidence despite potential new fatal flaws that could emerge [9] - Current market threats are limited, with the ongoing trade war being a notable concern [9] Group 3: Super Cycle and Management Assessment - Micron briefly entered a super cycle following the end of stimulus measures in 2020, but the fundamentals during this period were stronger than during the late 1990s bubble [10][12] - The management of Micron is not perceived as corrupt or incompetent, and concerns about management typically arise during economic downturns [12] Group 4: Financial Health - The debt-to-equity ratio of Micron appears to be within a normal historical range, indicating financial stability [13][15] - As of the article's writing, Micron's stock price had declined nearly 60%, making it safer to invest compared to a 50% drop [15]