Report Title - Cycle Sector Funds: From Investment Ability Analysis to Fund Manager Portraits - Weekly Insights on Financial Products 20251028 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Based on fund holdings, cycle sector funds can be classified into 5 types: "Cycle + Satellite", "Sector Rotation", "Sub - sector", "Cycle Rotation", and "Cycle Equilibrium". Most fund managers adopt "Cycle + Satellite" and "Sub - sector (mainly resources and energy)" strategies, with the fewest using the "Cycle Equilibrium" strategy [3]. - Three overall investment ability analyses of cycle sector funds: They can create relatively stable excess returns in the long - term compared to the sector index; are relatively good at stock - picking in utilities, basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and non - ferrous metals, have outstanding stock - picking ability in building materials, transportation, coal, and steel in some periods, and are relatively weak in building decoration; and cycle sector fund managers have more prominent cycle stock - picking ability than all - sector fund managers [3]. - Seven dimensions to compare cycle sector funds with different style characteristics: High turnover does not necessarily mean high returns; there are many high - dividend and high - ROE style products, mainly mid - and large - cap stocks; most cycle sector funds hold idiosyncratic stocks; resource funds are more right - sided overall, while energy funds are more left - sided; by analyzing the skewness and kurtosis coefficients of stock - picking returns, fund managers with high confidence in stock - picking ability can be found; by finding similar funds and analyzing their performance in good and bad times, the environmental adaptability of fund managers can be characterized; there are products with outstanding sector rotation ability [3]. - How to screen the observation list of cycle sector funds: Screen with the following quantitative indicators: excess performance momentum, performance in good and bad environments, stock - picking ability, left - and right - sided investment ability; for rotation - type products and "Cycle + Satellite" style products, additionally consider their sub - sector rotation effects; other indicators to consider include the fund manager's tenure being as long as possible and the fund size being neither too large nor too small [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Cycle Sector Fund Screening and Classification - **Classification Method**: Based on Shenwan primary industry characteristics, four sub - sectors of the cycle sector are identified. Funds are classified into 5 types according to their average allocation ratio and rotation ratio in the cycle sector in the past three years: "Cycle + Satellite" (average cycle allocation ratio between 60% - 70%), "Sector Rotation" (average cycle allocation ratio below 50%), "Sub - sector" (average sub - sector allocation ratio > 50%), "Cycle Rotation" (annual average change in industry allocation ratio > 50%), and "Cycle Equilibrium" (the rest) [10]. 2. Cycle Sector Fund Stock - holding Characteristics - **Overall Excess Returns**: Cycle sector funds can create relatively stable excess returns in the long - term compared to passive indices, with prominent excess returns from February to August 2024 and since May 2025 [22]. - **Industry - Level Excess Returns**: They are relatively good at stock - picking in utilities and basic chemicals, have outstanding performance in building materials in some periods, and are relatively weak in building decoration [23]. - **Stock - picking Ability Comparison**: Cycle sector fund managers have more prominent cycle stock - picking ability than all - sector fund managers [32]. - **Stock - holding Preferences**: Cycle sector funds prefer to allocate resources, with most of their heavily - held cycle stocks in the resources category in the past two years. In contrast, balanced funds initially paid more attention to energy stocks, and no single category of stocks is overly favored in the top - allocated stocks in 25H1. Few stocks are continuously heavily held by cycle sector or balanced funds, indicating a natural rotation tendency of cycle stocks [37]. - **Cluster Analysis**: There are four relatively unique types: focusing on gold (e.g., Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold and Silver Jewelry), focusing on energy (coal) (e.g., Wanjia Selection A), focusing on transportation (e.g., GF Multi - Strategy), and generally偏向 resources (e.g., Qianhai Kaiyuan Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen Core Assets) [41]. 3. Comparison of Cycle Sector Funds with Different Style Characteristics - **Turnover and Return**: High - turnover cycle sector funds do not generally achieve higher returns in the short - term. In the long - term, there are high - performing products in both high - turnover and low - turnover groups [48]. - **Stock - holding Style**: There are many high - dividend and high - ROE style products in cycle sector funds, and most of their holdings are mid - and large - cap stocks. Different types of cycle sector funds have different market - cap preferences, with chemical funds having smaller - cap holdings, other sub - sector funds having mid - cap holdings, and balanced, rotation, and "Cycle + Satellite" products having relatively larger - cap holdings [49][53]. - **Stock Popularity**: Most cycle sector funds hold idiosyncratic stocks. Most high - performing cycle sector funds mainly hold individual idiosyncratic stocks, but some also hold more market - preferred stocks [61]. - **Left - and Right - sided Investment**: The left - sided buying coefficient of cycle sector funds is at the median level of active equities. Resource funds are more right - sided, energy funds are more left - sided, and balanced, "Cycle + Satellite", and rotation style products are around the median level. There are high - performing funds on both the left and right sides [66]. - **Stock - picking Ability**: By analyzing the skewness, kurtosis, and mean/standard deviation of stock - picking returns, funds with appropriate right - skewed returns, moderate kurtosis, and high mean/standard deviation can be selected [69]. - **Performance in Good and Bad Times**: Different types of products show different market environment adaptability. For example, many products with strong performance in bad times are "Cycle + Satellite" products, while those with strong performance in good times are mostly sub - sector theme products [72]. - **Sub - sector Rotation**: There are products with outstanding rotation ability in cycle sector funds, including actively rotating, rotation - downplaying, and timely - rotating products [76]. 4. Cycle Sector Fund Observation List - Quantitative indicators for screening: Excess performance momentum, performance in good and bad environments, stock - picking ability, left - and right - sided investment ability, sub - sector rotation effects for rotation - type and "Cycle + Satellite" style products, and other considerations such as the fund manager's tenure and appropriate fund size [79]. - Observation list: Funds such as Nuode Lixin A, Invesco Great Wall Pillar Industries A, ICBC Dividend Preferred A, SDIC UBS Prosperity Drive A, Dacheng Trend Industry A, and Dacheng State - owned Enterprise Reform A are included [3][80]