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爱马仕(RMS):3Q25收入稳健增长,高基数下展现韧性,皮具业务延续强劲动能
Haitong Securities International· 2025-10-27 07:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for Hermès, indicating an "Outperform" rating for the stock over the next 12-18 months [20]. Core Insights - Hermès reported Q3 FY25 revenue of €3.9 billion, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth at constant exchange rates, with a cumulative revenue of €11.9 billion for the first nine months, up 9% at constant rates [8][12]. - The company continues to show resilience in a high base environment, with strong performance across various regions and product categories [5][12]. Regional Performance - The Asian market (excluding Japan) grew by 4% year-on-year, with significant improvements in Greater China due to brand loyalty and optimized store networks [2][9]. - Japan's market saw a remarkable 15% growth, primarily driven by local customer repurchases [2][9]. - The Americas experienced a 13% increase, supported by new store openings in the U.S. [2][9]. - Europe also performed well, with a 12% growth excluding France and 9% growth in France [2][9]. - The Middle East and other regions maintained a high growth trend of 15% [2][9]. Product Category Performance - Hermès's core leather goods and saddlery segment grew by 13% year-on-year, driven by popular product lines [3][10]. - The perfume and beauty segment declined by 5% due to a high base effect from the previous year [3][10]. - The watchmaking division maintained solid momentum, with plans for capacity expansion [3][10]. - Jewelry and homeware continued to show strong growth, increasing by 11% year-on-year [3][10]. Future Outlook - Management remains optimistic for Q4, noting positive trends in early October and strong sales during the Golden Week holiday [5][12]. - The company plans to open 3-4 new stores annually over the next two years while renovating around 15 existing stores [5][12]. - Operating margin is expected to remain around 40%, with capital expenditures increasing to support growth initiatives [5][12]. - The brand's strong customer loyalty and disciplined channel management are expected to support medium- to long-term growth [5][12].