2025 年中国高端消费市场初显回暖信号，呈现理性复苏与结构性分化特征。全年境内个人奢侈品市场同比降幅收窄至 3%-5%，虽仍处调整期，但相较 2019 年仍保持 50% 以上增长体量，长期成长韧性凸显。市场复苏呈 "前低后高" 的 J 型修复，3Q25 起受资本市场回暖与政策发力带动，景气度持续回升，4Q25 销售额同比转正至 1%-3%。 品类方面，消费结构从 "物质占有" 向 "体验优先" 转型。高端服务消费表现亮眼，奢华酒店 RP 持平、入境邮轮游客同比激增 210%，健康保健、旅游等体 验类消费成为高净值人群支出增长重点；商品端呈 K 型分化，美妆个护逆势增长 4%-7%，珠宝品类降幅收窄至 0%-5%，而皮具箱包、腕表分别下滑 8%-11% 和 14%-17%。 复苏动力源于多因素共振：境内外奢侈品价差显著收窄至 12% 左右，叠加消费回流趋势，为内地市场带来增量；促消费政策落地、海南封关与离岛免税新 政拓宽消费渠道；楼市企稳与股市慢牛释放财富效应，高净值人群消费信心修复；外资品牌加强本土化适配，产品与营销更贴合中国市场需求。 人群特征呈现代际分化：Z 世代以悦己消费和文化自信为核心，偏好国潮与线 ...

证券研究报告 可选消费 海外看中国：高端消费复苏启示录 可选消费 增持 (维持) 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 fanjunhao@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 惠普 研究员 SAC No. S0570524090006 SFC No. BSE005 孙丹阳 研究员 SAC No. S0570519010001 sundanyang@htsc.com SFC No. BQQ696 +(86) 21 2897 2038 张霜凝* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070015 zhangshuangning@htsc.com 华泰研究 复盘 2025 年海外集团在华经营表现，我们认为我国高端消费初显回暖信号。 以 LVMH 为例，FY3Q25 中国区销售额回正，录得中-高个位数同比增长 （vs1H25 亚太区：-9%），改善趋势逐步显现。品类上看，消费者重视价 值与体验，从面子走向里子，高端服务消费领先复苏，高端商品表现分化。 拉长看 ...

Core Insights - The rapid development of the internet has transformed shopping habits in China, with e-commerce surpassing other countries, driven by consumer power during events like Double Eleven [1][3][5] - The luxury goods market in China has become a significant focus, with brands like LV and Parisian houses seeing high demand despite global economic downturns [3][11][22] - The pandemic initially suppressed consumer spending, but a surge in demand has been observed as restrictions eased, leading to a phenomenon of revenge spending [5][22] E-commerce and Consumer Behavior - Double Eleven has evolved from a singles' day into a nationwide shopping festival, with sales exceeding billions daily, showcasing the strength of Chinese consumers [3][5] - The luxury market is thriving in China, with consumers willing to wait in long lines to purchase items before price increases, indicating a strong desire for luxury goods [13][18] - Young consumers are the primary drivers of luxury spending, often prioritizing brand prestige and social status over practical financial considerations [16][24] Luxury Goods Market Dynamics - China's share of global luxury goods consumption has increased significantly, from 12% in 2012 to 33% in 2018, establishing it as a dominant market [11][22] - Government policies, such as reduced tariffs, have facilitated access to luxury goods, further stimulating market growth [18][24] - The rise of celebrity endorsements has enhanced brand visibility and appeal, particularly among younger demographics who aspire to emulate their idols [24] Consumer Trends and Future Outlook - The perception of luxury goods has shifted, with more consumers, including those from middle-income backgrounds, now able to afford them, expanding the market [8][22] - There is a growing concern about the blind pursuit of foreign luxury brands, with a call for consumers to consider supporting local brands and rationalizing their spending habits [24]

Core Insights - The Chinese luxury goods market is on a cautious recovery path, with consumers exhibiting a prudent and optimistic attitude towards spending, leading to significant changes in consumer demographics, category performance, brand preferences, and purchasing channels [1][6][7] Consumer Sentiment and Spending - 80% of respondents are optimistic about the macro economy, 79% about employment, and 82% about policy support, yet per capita luxury spending is expected to decline by 4%, from 146,800 RMB to 141,500 RMB [1][7] - High-ticket categories like large leather goods and watches are under pressure, with declines of 7% and 6% respectively, while fashion and small accessories, as well as jewelry, show slight decreases [1][7][15] Consumer Demographics - Middle-aged, high-income consumers in first-tier cities are the main drivers of recovery, showing stronger willingness and ability to spend, while younger and low-income groups are more cautious [1][7][18] - There is a notable difference in spending expectations across age and income groups, with high-income consumers showing a greater willingness to increase spending [1][7] Brand Preferences - Domestic luxury brands are gaining popularity, with their share of total consumption rising from 39% to 44%, primarily driven by jewelry [2][7][22] - In the fragrance and beauty categories, consumers still prefer international brands, with local brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold becoming popular choices [2][7] Purchasing Channels - Official channels are favored, with offline official channels accounting for 56% and online official channels for 44%. Travel retail channels are also on the rise, with mainland airport duty-free channels at 44% and Hainan offshore duty-free channels at 39% [2][7] - 36% of respondents plan to purchase luxury goods overseas, but most will limit overseas spending to 30% of their total luxury expenditure, with millennials showing the highest intent to buy abroad [2][7] Impact of Tariff Policies - 77% of respondents indicate that US-China tariffs will influence their purchasing behavior, with 50% likely to shift towards domestic brands and 59%-61% avoiding American products or preferring non-US produced American brands [2][7][25] - Some consumers are reducing luxury spending primarily due to increased savings (48%) and a shift towards experiential consumption (38%) [2][7] Future Strategies for Brands - Luxury brands need to enhance brand appeal and trust, improve quality and durability, optimize store services and after-sales, innovate designs based on Chinese consumer preferences, and create exclusive products and experiences to convert consumers' cautious attitudes into actual spending [2][7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious recovery in the Chinese personal luxury goods market, with an overall decline expected to narrow to 3%-5% in 2025 [9][11]. Core Insights - The Chinese luxury goods market is gradually recovering, but consumers remain cautious, leading to a decline in non-essential spending. There is a growing preference for high-value luxury items that combine quality, uniqueness, and practicality [8][10]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards experiential luxury consumption, particularly in travel and health, as consumers favor emotional and sensory satisfaction over physical goods [8]. - Brands focusing on affordable luxury and ultra-high-end segments are gaining market share by providing "real value" to affluent young consumers and ultra-high-net-worth individuals [8][10]. - The share of overseas luxury consumption has decreased compared to 2024, driven by a weaker RMB and ongoing domestic promotions, which encourage luxury spending to return to mainland China [8][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Chinese personal luxury goods market is projected to shrink by 3%-5% in 2025, with signs of recovery in the third quarter. Different categories show varied performance, with beauty and personal care recovering, while watches continue to face pressure [10][11]. - The second-hand luxury market is growing robustly, with an expected increase of 15%-20%, although it still represents a small portion of the overall market [10][36]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are becoming more discerning, leading to a cautious approach in luxury purchases. The market is transitioning into a slow growth phase, with expectations for continued recovery into 2026 [10][49]. - The report identifies three main consumer segments driving market dynamics: high-end consumers, middle-aged middle-income consumers, and a new generation of luxury seekers [28]. Category Performance - Beauty and personal care categories are showing strong recovery, with growth rates of 4%-7%. In contrast, the leather goods category is expected to decline by 8%-11% due to insufficient innovation and rising prices [18][20]. - Jewelry is expected to see a reduced decline of 0%-5%, while the watch category is under significant pressure, with an anticipated decline of 14%-17% [20]. Second-Hand Market - The second-hand luxury market is expected to grow significantly, driven by increased supply and changing consumer behavior towards value and sustainability [35][36]. - The second-hand market is primarily concentrated in leather goods and watches, with leather goods accounting for 50%-55% of the market [40]. Local Brand Competitiveness - Chinese local luxury brands are emerging as significant competitors by integrating innovative designs with local culture, thus attracting consumer attention [45]. - These brands are leveraging a deeper understanding of local consumer preferences to create unique product aesthetics and marketing strategies [45][48]. Future Outlook - The luxury market is expected to continue facing volatility and uncertainty in 2026, but there are signs of sustained recovery, supported by domestic policy and geopolitical factors [49][50]. - The second-hand luxury market's low penetration rate compared to global averages indicates substantial growth potential [49].

2026年马年春节脚步渐近，上海各大商圈年味愈浓，处处洋溢着热闹红火的消费氛围。市中心LV"路易号"巨型游轮成为新晋打卡地标，二次元快闪店 前客流络绎不绝，各大品牌纷纷打造新年限时装置、推出特色节庆活动，让申城街头尽显消费活力。 首店云集场景焕新 潘洁 摄 上海正持续集聚全球首发、首展、首秀资源，成为国际一线品牌布局首店、旗舰店的首选之地。最新数据显示，2025年上海社会消费品零售（社零）总 额16600.93亿元，同比增长4.6%，增速反超全国平均水平，首发经济成为拉动消费复苏、点燃年末市场的核心引擎。 上海首发经济的蓬勃发展中，黄浦区始终领跑全市，以亮眼数据和特色模式成为标杆。数据显示，"十四五"以来，黄浦区已累计引进各类高能级首店、 旗舰店、体验店919家；2025年通过企业内容创新与场景再造，再度吸引69家优质首店、旗舰店落地，位居全市第一，持续夯实上海首发经济核心区地位。 为进一步贴近中国市场，MUSINSA全面推进本土化运营，与本土伙伴成立合资公司、上线天猫旗舰店，同时在供应链端加强本地协作，构建高效在地 供应链。"上海是国际时尚潮流的前沿阵地，更是我们深耕中国市场的理想起点。"MUSINSA中国 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 China Personal Luxury Goods Report by Bain & Company indicates a contraction of 3% to 5% in the mainland personal luxury goods market, showing a significant easing compared to the sharp decline in 2024 [1] - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior towards high-cost performance products that balance quality, uniqueness, and practicality, with a preference for experiential consumption such as travel and health [1] - The report notes that the high-value customer (VIC) group remains the core driver of the luxury goods market, while younger potential consumers are entering the luxury market with a more cautious and delayed approach [1] Market Performance - Different luxury categories show varied performance: beauty and personal care products are recovering with a growth of 4% to 7%, while apparel is declining by 5% to 8%, leather goods by 8% to 11%, watches by 14% to 17%, and jewelry is expected to decline by 0% to 5% compared to 2024 [1] Consumption Trends - The share of overseas luxury goods consumption has significantly decreased in 2025, with 65% of luxury consumption occurring in mainland China and 35% abroad, indicating an increase in consumption return [2] - Mainland consumers' enthusiasm for outbound travel has not diminished their willingness to purchase luxury goods domestically, aided by reduced price gaps between mainland and major overseas markets [2] - The rise of local Chinese luxury brands, particularly in beauty and personal luxury categories, is emphasized, with these brands leveraging culturally relevant product designs and competitive pricing strategies [2] Competitive Advantages - Local brands are building differentiated advantages through a deeper understanding of local consumer preferences, implementing a "China-first" customer outreach strategy, and enhancing access to local quality resources and materials to establish price advantages [3] - Despite ongoing market volatility and uncertainty, Bain forecasts moderate growth for the Chinese personal luxury goods market in 2026, supported by the expanding middle-income group and improving consumer confidence [3]

新京报贝壳财经讯（记者陈维城）1月29日，贝恩公司发布的《2025年中国个人奢侈品报告》显示， 2025年中国内地个人奢侈品市场收缩了3%至5%，相比2024年的大幅下降有明显缓和。贝恩估计，2025 年中国奢侈品消费中有65%发生在中国内地，35%在境外，反映出消费回流的程度有所增加。 贝恩公司全球合伙人杨玥表示："二手市场正在逐渐成为中国奢侈品生态系统中不可或缺的一环，它的 持续增长不仅说明了消费者观念的转变，也标志着整个市场的日益成熟。"她指出，直播平台兼具实时 互动和产品验证两大功能，增强了消费者对二手奢侈品的信心。" 报告还强调了本土中国奢侈品品牌的持续崛起，特别是在美妆护肤和部分个人奢侈品类别中。这些品牌 通过文化相关的产品设计、数字化和互动导向的消费者策略以及由本地投入和供应链支持的竞争性价格 定位获得市场份额。 展望未来，尽管波动和不确定性仍将持续，贝恩预计中国个人奢侈品市场将在2026年实现适度增长，但 仍将保持全球奢侈品市场增长的基石地位。随着中等收入群体的不断壮大、消费者信心的提升以及有利 政策的出台，预计将有更多奢侈品消费回流至中国内地市场。然而，增长的程度仍将高度依赖于具体的 产品类 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of Sanlitun Taikoo Li into a fashion and retail landmark in Beijing, showcasing its evolution from a traditional shopping area to a hub for high-end brands and innovative retail experiences [1][12]. Group 1: Development and Upgrades - Sanlitun Taikoo Li has undergone significant upgrades since 2022, with the introduction of luxury brands like LV and Dior, enhancing its status from a trendy gathering place to a flagship store cluster [4][6]. - The area has seen a total of 171 high-quality brand flagship stores established, along with 227 exclusive events, reinforcing its position as a premier platform for limited edition products and cultural collaborations [5][6]. Group 2: Consumer Trends and Market Dynamics - The global luxury market is projected to reach €358 billion by 2025, with China’s share increasing from approximately 8% in 2015 to about 12% in 2025, making it a key driver of global growth [4]. - Chinese high-net-worth individuals prioritize uniqueness and exclusivity in luxury consumption, contrasting with Western consumers who focus more on product quality and service experience [4]. Group 3: Spatial and Ecological Innovation - Sanlitun Taikoo Li has redefined its commercial ecosystem by integrating innovative retail experiences and community culture, transitioning from a single commercial landmark to a collaborative commercial ecosystem [7][8]. - The introduction of multi-functional stores, such as the Sacai flagship that combines retail with social activities, exemplifies the shift towards experiential shopping environments [8][9]. Group 4: Cultural Integration and Local Adaptation - The project emphasizes the importance of local cultural integration, adapting international brands to fit local consumer preferences and cultural elements, thereby enhancing its competitive edge [10][11]. - The operational strategy focuses on collaboration with brands to create unique experiences that resonate with local consumers, moving away from traditional owner-led approaches [10][11].

Core Insights - The article highlights that while the Chinese economy shows resilience, it faces structural challenges, with growth expected to be between 4% and 5%, significantly lower than the pre-pandemic average of nearly 7% [1] - Internal policies are focused on industrial capacity building and export competitiveness, but domestic consumption, particularly from residents, has not been fully unleashed [2] - External pressures, including trade tensions with the US and EU, add uncertainty to the short-term outlook, yet the government's commitment to stable growth supports long-term confidence in the economy [3] Internal Policy Focus - The current emphasis is on enhancing industrial capabilities and export competitiveness, with insufficient focus on domestic demand and consumer spending [2] - Structural and temporary overcapacity in sectors like new energy vehicles and semiconductors reflects a supply-side focus that suppresses short-term consumer activity and profit margins [2] Consumer Behavior Trends - A survey of 3,000 new luxury consumers in China indicates a shift towards more rational and planned purchasing behavior, with a projected 4% decrease in per capita luxury spending from RMB 146,800 to RMB 141,500 [4] - Approximately 80% of consumers maintain a positive outlook on the macroeconomic situation, yet their spending remains cautious, reflecting a thoughtful approach to consumption rather than impulsive buying [4] Demographic Insights - Consumer behavior shows significant differentiation by age, income, and city tier, with younger consumers (Gen Z) more likely to reduce luxury spending compared to older generations [6][7] - Nearly half of consumers reducing luxury spending cite increased savings as a reason, while a significant portion plans to shift spending towards experiential consumption [6] Market Dynamics - The luxury market is experiencing a cautious recovery, with a notable shift towards domestic luxury brands due to changing consumer preferences influenced by trade tensions [9] - About 75% of respondents indicate that ongoing US-China trade tensions affect their luxury purchasing decisions, leading to a preference for local brands [9] Channel Preferences - Consumers are increasingly choosing official channels for purchases, with 56% preferring offline and 44% online, reflecting a growing emphasis on trust and credibility in purchasing decisions [13] - Overseas purchases remain significant but limited, with about one-third of consumers planning to buy luxury goods outside mainland China, primarily in Asia [14] Future Outlook - The luxury market in China is expected to evolve with two driving forces: sustained consumer confidence and more rational spending behavior [16] - The competitive landscape will hinge on brands' ability to build trust and deepen local operations without overly relying on price promotions [16] - The potential recovery of the luxury market will depend on brands' ability to convert consumer confidence into a sustainable foundation for growth [18]