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中信证券:若美俄会谈仅就短期停火达成共识 对大类资产的影响或表现为短期情绪反应
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-08-10 09:13
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming meeting between the US and Russian leaders on August 15 may lead to a significant turning point in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with discussions likely to focus on short-term ceasefire goals and other strategic issues to be addressed subsequently [1] Group 1: Meeting Focus - The US-Russia summit may prioritize discussions on a ceasefire and other immediate objectives, while broader issues such as territorial control, sanctions on Russia, post-war security arrangements for Ukraine, and US strategy in Europe will be addressed in later stages [1] Group 2: Impact on Major Assets - If the meeting results in a consensus on a short-term ceasefire, the impact on major assets is expected to be primarily emotional, leading to a potential temporary decline in geopolitical risk premiums for gold, oil, and the US dollar, while equity assets in Europe and the US may experience a short-term increase in risk appetite [1] - Conversely, if substantial progress is made on issues like lifting sanctions against Russia, it could have a more significant impact on major assets, particularly through disruptions in the supply side of certain commodities [1]