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债 券 周 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 联系人 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 22 日 地产季节性回升，港口吞吐量下行 ——高频经济周报（2025.11.16-2025.11.22） 风险提示：国内政策超预期，海外环境变化超预期 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 研 究 相关研究 - 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com ⚫ 工业生产：生产表现较弱。从上游来看，本期全国电厂样本区域用煤量周度环比下行 1.27%，石油沥青装置开工率周度环比下行 4.20pcts 至 24.80%，高炉开工率周度环比下 行 0.62cts 至 82.17%，粗钢产量周度环比上行 6.00%。从地产链来看，螺纹钢开工率周 度环比上行 1.31pcts 至 4 ...

Strategy - The article discusses the current bull market, emphasizing that it is not merely driven by liquidity and weak fundamentals, but rather the sustainability of this bull market is in question. It draws parallels with Japan's three bull markets in the 1990s, highlighting the importance of large-scale fiscal stimulus as a necessary condition for the initiation of a bull market in a low-growth, low-interest-rate environment. The article suggests that if policies are more targeted and aligned with external industrial trends, the bull market could last longer. Key risks to watch include policy easing, external disturbances like the AI bubble, and internal debt exposure [5][8]. Industry - For 2026, the article recommends overweighting gold, increasing allocation to Chinese technology stocks, and underweighting commodities. It notes that both gold and global stocks have seen significant increases, and the key for 2026 will be whether the bull markets in gold and stocks can continue. The article summarizes the switching patterns of major asset classes and emphasizes the importance of identifying the peak of the bull market in Chinese stocks and gold. It identifies economic and policy signals as the most effective indicators for Chinese stocks, while gold peaks are more dependent on Federal Reserve policies [8][10]. Macroeconomy - Since the launch of ChatGPT at the end of 2022, leading AI companies in the US have significantly outperformed the overall market. Similarly, Chinese AI leaders have also shown strong performance in the Hong Kong market. Despite rapid earnings growth for these companies, the risk premium remains at a low level, indicating optimistic investor sentiment. The article discusses the ongoing debate about the potential bubble in AI-related asset prices, focusing on the relationship between asset prices, innovation, and macroeconomic factors [10][12]. Quantitative & ESG - The report analyzes the calendar effects in the A-share market, focusing on the performance of mainstream styles and their cyclical patterns. Key conclusions include that growth and small-cap styles are significantly influenced by the timing of earnings disclosures, with growth stocks attracting more attention during busy reporting periods. Additionally, high dividend announcements and record dates can temporarily affect the performance of dividend styles. Institutional investors exhibit seasonal risk preference changes, favoring growth styles mid-year and defensive strategies towards year-end [13][15]. Global Research - The global economy and markets have shown unexpected resilience in 2025, despite significant trade tensions. However, there is notable divergence across industries and regions. The article predicts that Japan's economic growth may continue to exceed potential GDP in 2026. Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam and Indonesia, is expected to benefit from industrial expansion, upstream mining investments, and diversification of global supply chains [16][17].

研究中心宏观团队 2025/11/19 | 冠 | | --- | 大类资产早报 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.114 | 4.553 | 3.457 | 2.706 | 3.456 | 3.208 | 0.138 | 3.332 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 1.739 | 6.245 | 1.805 | - | 4.441 | 4.150 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.574 | 3.795 | 2.017 | 0.918 | 2.214 | 1 ...

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 11 月 17 日 大类资产运行周报（20251110-20251114） 美国政府停摆结束 关键数据有望公布 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 0.29% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | 0.43% | | 全球债券指数 | -0.11% | | 全球国债指数 | -0.18% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | -0.07% 分析师 | | 美元指数 | -0.26% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 0.48% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 1.06% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（2025 ...

| 冠 永安期货 | | --- | | YONGAN FUTURES | 大类资产早报 | | | 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 研究中心宏观团队 2025/11/17 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.149 | 4.573 | 3.458 | 2.719 | 3.471 | 3.226 | 0.139 | 3.347 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 1.705 | 6.222 | 1.806 | - | 4.439 | 4.165 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The economic situation from November 9 to November 15, 2025, shows weak supply and demand, with downward pressure on prices. Industrial production is weak, while personnel flow is increasing, and freight prices are slightly rising. Consumption, investment, and exports all show mixed trends, and there are also corresponding changes in the performance of major asset classes [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Major Asset Classes - Bond indices mostly rose, with the AA and AA - indices of ChinaBond corporate bonds rising the most, both by 0.06%. - Stock indices generally fell, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index falling the most, with a weekly decline of 3.85%. - Commodities showed mixed performance, with the Nanhua Precious Metals Index rising the most by 5.07% and the Nanhua Energy and Chemicals Index falling the most by 0.65%. - Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest decline of 1.36%, and the US dollar depreciating by 0.31% [1]. 2. Industrial Production - Upstream: The coal consumption of the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 0.70 pcts to 29.00%, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.36 pcts to 82.79%, while the crude steel output increased by 6.00% week - on - week. - Real estate chain: The operating rate of rebar increased by 0.68 pcts to 41.98%, the operating rate of float glass remained flat at 75.30%, and the mill operation rate decreased by 3.50 pcts to 33.68%. - Consumer goods chain: The operating rate of polyester filament increased by 0.41 pcts to 91.23%, the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.51 pcts to 76.18%, and the methanol operating rate decreased by 0.69 pcts to 83.94%. - Automobile chain: The operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires increased by 0.01 pcts to 73.68%, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires decreased by 0.96 pcts to 64.50% [1]. 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow continued to rise. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 0.80% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations increased by 0.61%, while that of international flights decreased by 0.42%. Subway passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, while those in Shenzhen and Guangzhou increased. - Freight prices rose slightly. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index increased by 0.03% week - on - week, but the total volume was lower than the same period last year [1]. 4. Consumption - Automobile sales growth declined year - on - year. The previous period's automobile wholesale decreased by 22.00% year - on - year, and retail decreased by 19.00% year - on - year. Both the 4WMA of wholesale and retail year - on - year growth rates declined. - Movie box office and attendance increased. The weekly box office increased by 107%, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers increased by 94%. - Agricultural product prices declined. The price of pork decreased by 0.93% week - on - week, and the price of vegetables decreased by 3.41% week - on - week [1]. 5. Investment - Construction performance was weak. The cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 1.3 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.03%, and the cement shipping rate decreased by 3.7 pcts. Rebar inventory decreased by 2.3% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts, and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 1.0% week - on - week. - The real estate market showed seasonal upward trends. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 20.1% week - on - week, with increases in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 1.6%, while the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.4%. The land transaction area in 100 cities decreased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [1]. 6. Exports - Port throughput decreased. The weekly port cargo throughput decreased by 4.3%, while the container throughput increased by 1.4%. - Most shipping indices rose. The BDI index increased by 1.00% week - on - week, the domestic SCFI index decreased by 2.92%, and the CCFI index increased by 3.39% week - on - week [1].

Group 1 - The article highlights a limited-time promotional event for Alpha's services, offering significant discounts on various membership options and courses [1][4]. - Alpha is launching 36 exclusive online private sharing sessions featuring top industry experts who will provide insights and answer questions [3]. - Special offers include a monthly and annual VIP membership at a reduced price, along with discounts on master classes and exclusive video content [4]. Group 2 - The promotional period runs from November 3 to November 12, with prices starting as low as ¥109 for certain offerings [1]. - New thematic courses focusing on AI, futures, and major asset classes are available at a promotional price of ¥199 [4]. - The article emphasizes the value of the annual membership, which includes access to exclusive content and community services [3][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The report presents the performance of global asset markets on November 12, 2025, including data on bonds, currencies, stock indices, and futures transactions [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **Bond Yields**: 10 - year bond yields of major economies such as the US (4.117%), UK (4.387%), and Japan (1.685%) are reported, along with 2 - year bond yields like the US (3.592%) and UK (3.720%) [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are given, e.g., the US dollar to Brazilian real is 5.273, and it also shows on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates [2]. - **Stock Indices**: It lists the latest values of major global stock indices, such as the S&P 500 (6846.610), Dow Jones Industrial Index (47927.960), and Shanghai Composite Index (4002.758) [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest values of various credit bond indices are provided, including US investment - grade (3523.740) and high - yield (2880.940) credit bond indices [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are presented, with CSI 300 down 0.91% and ChiNext down 1.40% [3]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) and its环比 changes are given for indices like CSI 300 (14.27, - 0.09) and S&P 500 (28.46, 0.05) [3]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium and its环比 changes are shown for S&P 500 (- 0.60, 0.00) and German DAX (2.36, - 0.02) [3]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest and 5 - day average fund flows for A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are reported, with A - shares' latest fund flow at - 1048.10 [3]. - **Transaction Amount**: The latest transaction amounts and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and related indices are given, e.g., the latest transaction amount of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 19935.86, with a环比 change of - 1808.68 [4]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis and basis percentage for IF, IH, and IC are provided, with IF's basis at - 25.37 and a basis percentage of - 0.55% [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T2303 (108.48, - 0.01%), TF2303 (105.94, - 0.00%), T2306 (108.24, - 0.02%), and TF2306 (105.89, - 0.02%) are reported [4]. Money Market - The latest domestic money market rates (R001: 1.5361%, R007: 1.5145%, SHIBOR - 3M: 1.5800%) and their daily changes (4.00 BP, 1.00 BP, 0.00 BP) are given [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - From November 2 to November 8, 2025, investment demand was weak while port throughput rebounded. Industrial production was weak, personnel flow continued to rise, freight prices increased slightly, automobile sales grew year - on - year, prices continued to rise, construction was weak, the real estate market declined, and most shipping indices went up [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Large - scale Assets - This week, interest - rate bond indices generally declined, credit - bond indices generally rose, stock indices and commodities showed mixed performance, and foreign currencies generally appreciated. The 5 - year China Bond Treasury Index fell the most by 0.08%, the AA - China Bond Corporate Bond Index rose the most by 0.09%, the CSI 300 Index rose the most by 0.82%, the SME Board Index fell the most by 0.59%, the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index rose the most by 0.57%, the Nanhua Black Index fell the most by 2.62%, the Japanese yen had the largest increase of 0.60%, and the US dollar appreciated by 0.13% against the RMB [1][6] 2. Industrial Production - Production performance was weak. Upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate decreased by 1.80 pcts to 29.70%, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 1.42 pcts to 83.15%, and the crude steel output decreased by 9.78%. In the real - estate chain, the rebar operating rate decreased by 2.00 pcts to 41.30%, the float glass operating rate remained flat at 76.65%, and the mill operating rate decreased by 0.02 pcts to 37.18%. In the consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operating rate increased by 0.15 pcts to 90.82%, the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.69 pcts to 77.69%, and the methanol operating rate increased by 0.75 pcts to 84.63%. In the automobile chain, the semi - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.26 pcts to 73.67%, and the all - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.12 pcts to 65.46% [1][9] 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow continued to rise, and freight prices increased slightly. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 6.68% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations decreased by 4.20%, and the 7DMA of international flight operations decreased by 2.14%. Beijing's subway passenger volume decreased, while those of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou increased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index increased by 0.01%, with the total volume lower than the same period last year [1][25] 4. Consumption - Automobile sales increased year - on - year, and prices continued to rise. The previous period's automobile wholesale increased by 24.00% year - on - year, and retail increased by 47.00%. The 4WMA of both wholesale and retail year - on - year growth rates increased. This period's movie box office decreased by 27% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 28%. Agricultural product prices rose, with pork prices increasing by 2.42% and vegetable prices increasing by 0.87% week - on - week [1][43] 5. Investment - Construction performance was weak, and the commercial housing market declined. The cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 3.2 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 1.69%, and the cement shipping rate decreased by 0.3 pcts. The rebar inventory decreased by 1.1%, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 5.2 pcts, and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 5.9%. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 40.6%. The transaction areas of first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all decreased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities decreased by 3.9%, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.2%. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [1][51] 6. Export - Port throughput rebounded, and most shipping indices increased. The port cargo throughput increased by 15.7% week - on - week, and the container throughput increased by 13.8%. The BDI index increased by 7.02%, the domestic SCFI index decreased by 3.59%, and the CCFI index increased by 3.60% week - on - week [1][77]