Tabl e_Title 2026 年 3 月 2 日 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | | 2.77% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | | 0.04% | | 全球债券指数 | | 0.50% | | 全球国债指数 | | 0.51% | | 全球信用债指数 | | 0.33% | | 姓名 | | 分析师 | | 美元指数 | SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | -0.10% | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn | 0.53% | | | | 021-68767839 | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20251117 -20251121)- AI 泡沫担忧升温 权益资 产价格回落 大类资产运行周报（20251124 -20251 ...

股 指 期 货 交 易 数 据 | | | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2026/02/27 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.005 | 4.273 | 3.248 | 2.690 | 3.299 | 3.097 | 0.197 | 3.297 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.149 | 5.915 | 1.819 | - | 4.701 | 4.353 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.431 | 3.540 | 2.037 | 1.233 | 2 ...

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.100, UK 4.452, France 3.363, Germany 2.777, Italy 3.383, Spain 3.150, Switzerland 0.268, Greece 3.375, Japan 2.232, Brazil 6.127, China 1.776, Australia 4.807, New Zealand 4.518 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies are: US 3.457, UK 3.595, Germany 2.055, Japan 1.303, Italy 2.191, China (1Y yield) 1.304, Australia 4.281 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are: Brazil 5.213, South Africa zar 15.961, Korean won 1439.100, Thai baht 30.932, Malaysian ringgit 3.903. The latest values of on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, RMB central parity rate, and RMB 12 - month NDF are 6.902, 6.898, 6.946, and 6.778 respectively [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices are: S&P 500 6832.760, Dow Jones Industrial Index 49451.980, NASDAQ 22597.150, Mexican stock index 70888.040, UK stock index 10402.440, France CAC 8340.560, Germany DAX 24852.690, Spanish stock index 17896.900, Russian stock index (not provided), Nikkei 57639.840, Hang Seng Index 27032.540, Shanghai Composite Index 4134.018, Taiwan stock index (not provided), South Korean stock index 5522.270, Indian stock index 8265.352, Thai stock index 1441.530, Malaysian stock index 1750.850, Australian stock index 9281.789, emerging - economy stock index 1570.440 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices are: Eurozone investment - grade credit - bond index 268.564, Eurozone high - yield credit - bond index 413.620 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - For A - shares, the closing price is 4134.02 with a 0.05% increase; for CSI 300, the closing price is 4719.58 with a 0.12% increase; for SSE 50, the closing price is 3079.73 with a 0.28% decrease; for ChiNext, the closing price is 3328.06 with a 1.32% increase; for CSI 500, the closing price is 8423.57 with a 1.17% increase [4] - The PE (TTM) values of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX are 14.20, 11.70, 38.08, 27.29, and 19.28 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.03, - 0.06, 0.38, - 0.43, and 0.00 [4] - The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 and Germany DAX are - 0.44 and 2.41 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.13 and 0.01 [4] - The latest capital flows of A - shares, main board, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are 106.78, - 237.55, (not provided), 239.92, and - 109.58 respectively, and the 5 - day average values are 7.38, - 101.94, (not provided), 80.09, and - 1.88 respectively [4] Group 3: Transaction Amount and Other Data - The latest transaction amounts of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, and ChiNext are 21417.38, 4904.74, 1304.13, 4190.81, and 6134.82 respectively, with环比 changes of 1574.86, 570.45, 163.27, 148.57, and 531.84 [5] - The basis values of IF, IH, and IC are - 2.78, 3.27, and 25.23 respectively, with spreads of - 0.06%, 0.11%, and 0.30% [5] - The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 in Treasury bond futures are 108.59, 106.07, 108.60, and 106.15 respectively, with increases of 0.04%, 0.01%, 0.06%, and 0.03% [5] - The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are 1.4329%, 1.6029%, and 1.5800% respectively, with daily changes of - 17.00 BP, 0.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [5]

Labor Market Insights - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 70,000[2] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4%[2] - The labor force participation rate rose to 62.5%, surpassing expectations[2] - Hourly wage growth increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year[2] - The total employment figure for 2025 was revised down by 862,000[2] Sectoral Employment Trends - Job growth in January was concentrated in healthcare (82,000 jobs), social assistance (42,000 jobs), and construction (33,000 jobs)[2] - The number of part-time workers decreased by 453,000, indicating a potential improvement in the labor market[2] - The number of individuals wanting to work but not in the labor force fell by 399,000[2] Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the non-farm data release, the market initially pushed back the June rate cut expectation to July, but later adjusted to favor a June cut probability of 47.1%[2][10] - U.S. Treasury yields rose post-data release, while gold prices experienced temporary fluctuations but remained stable[2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices showed a pattern of high-level fluctuations, indicating market uncertainty[2] Risk Factors - Potential escalation in U.S.-China tensions could lead to significant impacts on trade and financial markets[12] - Geopolitical crises, particularly in the Middle East, may heighten global risk aversion and market volatility[12] - A downturn in the U.S. economy could exert additional pressure on the global economic environment[12]

研究中心宏观团队 2026/02/12 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 | 河 | | --- | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.173 | 4.476 | 3.378 | 2.791 | 3.396 | 3.161 | 0.283 | 3.391 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.232 | 6.145 | 1.797 | - | 4.756 | 4.485 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | ...

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Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.208, UK 4.514, France 3.446, Germany 2.841, Italy 3.466, Spain 3.220, Switzerland 0.243, Greece 3.454, Japan 2.222, Brazil 6.169, China 1.806, South Korea 3.697, Australia 4.826, New Zealand 4.535 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.500, UK 3.617, Germany 2.082, Japan 1.275, Italy 2.231, China (1Y yield) 1.308, South Korea 3.009, Australia 4.254 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.219, Russia (not provided), South Africa zar 16.031, Korean won 1463.650, Thai baht 31.647, Malaysian ringgit 3.948 [3] - The latest exchange rates related to the RMB: on - shore RMB 6.936, off - shore RMB 6.930, RMB central parity rate 6.959, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.797 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6932.300, Dow Jones Industrial Index 50115.670, Nasdaq 23031.210, Mexican stock index 70809.570, UK stock index 10369.750, France CAC 8273.840, Germany DAX 24721.460, Spanish stock index 17943.300, Russian stock index (not provided), Nikkei 54253.680, Hang Seng Index 26559.950, Shanghai Composite Index 4065.583, Taiwan stock index 31782.920, South Korean stock index 5089.140, Indian stock index 7935.260, Thai stock index 1354.010, Malaysian stock index 1732.830, Australian stock index 8954.613, emerging - economy stock index 1506.380 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3560.630, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 267.879, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 290.940, US high - yield credit - bond index 2932.470, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 413.420, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1848.064 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 4065.58 (down 0.25%), CSI 300 closing price 4643.60 (down 0.57%), SSE 50 closing price 3037.86 (down 0.69%), ChiNext closing price 3236.46 (down 0.73%), CSI 500 closing price 8146.41 (unchanged) [4] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 14.04 (down 0.04), SSE 50 11.59 (down 0.05), CSI 500 36.90 (down 0.02), S&P 500 27.68 (up 0.53), Germany DAX 19.18 (up 0.18) [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 - 0.60 (down 0.10), Germany DAX 2.37 (down 0.05) [4] - Fund flow: A - share latest value 202.42, main - board latest value 114.74, small - and - medium - enterprise board (not provided), ChiNext latest value 71.02, CSI 300 latest value - 34.69; A - share 5 - day average - 272.73, main - board 5 - day average - 179.44, small - and - medium - enterprise board (not provided), ChiNext 5 - day average - 60.47, CSI 300 5 - day average - 37.58 [4] - Transaction amount: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets latest value 21457.19 (down 305.01), CSI 300 latest value 5057.60 (down 446.73), SSE 50 latest value 1336.06 (down 143.91), small - cap board latest value 4650.31 (up 273.12), ChiNext latest value 5607.18 (up 84.29) [5] - Main contract basis and spread: IF basis - 6.00 (spread - 0.13%), IH basis - 1.66 (spread - 0.05%), IC basis - 29.01 (spread - 0.36%) [5] Group 3: Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Treasury bond futures closing prices: T2303 108.42 (up 0.09%), TF2303 105.95 (up 0.03%), T2306 108.44 (up 0.10%), TF2306 106.02 (up 0.07%) [5] - Fund rates: R001 1.3605% (down 19.00 BP), R007 1.5288% (down 2.00 BP), SHIBOR - 3M 1.5800% (unchanged) [5]

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.181%, UK 4.558%, France 3.445%, Germany 2.842%, Italy 3.468%, Spain 3.221%, Switzerland 0.244%, Greece 3.450%, Japan 2.231%, Brazil 6.180%, China 1.810%, Australia 4.857%, New Zealand 4.535% [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies are: US 3.452%, UK 3.653%, Germany 2.090%, Japan 1.280%, Italy 2.243%, China (1Y yield) 1.318%, Australia 4.286% [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are: Brazil 5.272, South Africa zar 16.309, Korean won 1463.600, Thai baht 31.802, Malaysian ringgit 3.948 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the RMB are: on - shore RMB 6.938, off - shore RMB 6.941, RMB central parity rate 6.957, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.806 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices are: S&P 500 6798.400, Dow Jones Industrial Average 48908.720, Nasdaq 22540.590, Mexican stock index 68858.280, UK stock index 10309.220, France CAC 8238.170, Germany DAX 24491.060, Spanish stock index 17746.300, Russian stock index (not available), Nikkei 53818.040, Hang Seng Index 26885.240, Shanghai Composite Index 4075.917, Taiwan stock index 31801.270, South Korean stock index 5163.570, Indian stock index 8103.879, Thai stock index 1346.230, Malaysian stock index 1731.020, Australian stock index 9154.855, emerging - economy stock index 1507.530 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices are: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3561.790, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 267.919, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 291.120, US high - yield credit - bond index 2927.790, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 413.450, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1846.721 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 4075.92, 4670.42, 3059.01, 3260.28, and 8146.11 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.64%, - 0.60%, - 0.33%, - 1.55%, and - 1.84% [4] - The PE (TTM) values of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX are 14.08, 11.64, 36.92, 27.25, and 19.00 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.05, - 0.02, - 0.68, - 0.24, and - 0.09 [4] - The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 is - 0.51 with a环比 change of 0.13, and that of Germany DAX is 2.42 with a环比 change of 0.04 [4] - The latest fund - flow values for A - shares, the main board, the SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are - 909.73, - 607.84, (not available), - 237.79, and - 34.01 respectively, and the 5 - day average values are - 447.20, - 349.02, (not available), - 69.06, and - 76.03 [4] Group 3: Other Trading Data - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, the SME board, and ChiNext are 21762.20, 5504.33, 1479.97, 4377.19, and 5522.89 respectively, with环比 changes of - 3047.51, - 855.86, - 218.85, - 414.09, and - 1233.00 [5] - The basis and basis percentage of IF, IH, and IC are - 5.22 (- 0.11%), 2.39 (0.08%), and - 25.91 (- 0.32%) respectively [5] - The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 in treasury - bond futures are 108.32, 105.91, 108.33, and 105.94 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.07%, 0.06%, 0.08%, and 0.04% [5] - The current R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M in the money market are 1.3926%, 1.5522%, and 1.5805% respectively, with daily changes of - 17.00 BP, - 1.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [5]

大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | | 1.80% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | | 0.50% | | 全球债券指数 | | 0.80% | | 全球国债指数 | | 0.96% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | | 0.57% | | | | 分析师 | | 美元指数 | SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | -0.40% | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn | 2.51% | | | | 021-68767839 | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 资料来源：Wind 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20251103 -20251107）-美国政府停摆破纪录 大类 资产价格回落 大类资产运行周报（20251110 -20251114）-美国政府停摆结束 关键数 据 ...

以下文章来源于晨星投资说 ，作者陪你聊配置的 晨星投资说 . 全球知名投资研究机构晨星Morningstar，与您一同探索投资星球。我们的使命是"赋能投资者成功"！ 作者： 晨星Morningstar 屈辰晨 来源：雪球 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 01 从"天真的分散"的"科学的分散" "不要把所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里"——这句广为流传的投资名言，并非出自投资大师或经济学家，而是1605年西班牙作家塞万提斯的《堂吉诃 德》。 几个世纪下来，"分散有助于降低风险"已经潜移默化地成为了我们日常决策时的一种经验法则，而我们的生活经验也在不断印证这一做法的合理 性：比如在吃自助餐的时候，每道菜都少量尝一点，不仅可以不错过任何美味，又能降低只吃一道菜踩雷的概率。 然而，如果我们简单粗暴地把这种思路套用到投资中，就会陷入一种叫做"天真的分散 " （Naïve Diversification）的陷阱——也就是我们开头提 到的"开基金超市"，不加区分地把各种可选的基金都买一点，觉得这么做一定能分散风险。 今天看到这只基金涨得好就 ...