Group 1: Oil Price Threshold Effects - The relationship between oil prices and major asset prices is not linear and exhibits threshold effects, where crossing certain oil price levels leads to different asset price responses[4] - Three transmission mechanisms for the threshold effect of oil prices are identified: investor psychological anchors, central bank tolerance levels, and corporate breakeven points[5] - Historical data shows that 60% of oil prices are below $75/barrel and 80% are below $100/barrel, establishing these as key thresholds for asset pricing[8] Group 2: Impact on Inflation and CPI - A simple OLS regression indicates that a 10% increase in Brent crude oil prices could raise the U.S. CPI energy component by approximately 2.7%, with potential increases of 5.4% and 8.1% for 20% and 30% increases, respectively[6] - During the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, Brent crude prices rose by an average of 43%, leading to an 11.6% increase in the U.S. CPI energy component[6] Group 3: Asset Performance Under Different Oil Price Scenarios - In the "medium oil price range" ($75-$100/barrel), the Nasdaq index shows the best performance with an average increase of 2.61% in the following months[10] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increases by an average of 42.6 basis points when oil prices exceed $100/barrel, compared to 8.2 basis points in the medium oil price range[10] - The VIX index rises by an average of 13.5% in the "high oil price range," indicating increased market volatility[11] Group 4: Sensitivity of Assets to Oil Price Changes - The sensitivity of major U.S. stock indices to oil price changes turns negative once oil prices exceed $100/barrel, indicating a shift from demand-driven to cost-push inflation dynamics[22] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield shows a significant increase in sensitivity to oil price changes in high oil price scenarios, with coefficients rising from -0.169 to 1.601 when oil prices exceed $100/barrel[23] - Gold prices exhibit a U-shaped relationship with oil prices, performing best in high oil price scenarios and worst in medium oil price scenarios[16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the performance of global asset markets including 10 - year and 2 - year government bonds of major economies, exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies, major economy stock indices, and credit bond indices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year government bonds**: The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Greece, Japan, Brazil, China, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand are 4.345, 4.915, 3.709, 3.002, 3.875, 3.513, 0.382, 3.855, 2.304, 6.298, 1.840, N/A, 5.118, 4.883 respectively [3] - **2 - year government bonds**: The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in the US, UK, Germany, Japan, Italy, China (1 - year yield), South Korea, and Australia are 3.854, 4.412, 2.571, 1.293, 2.827, 1.250, N/A, 4.817 respectively [3] - **Exchange rates**: The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, South African rand, South Korean won, Thai baht, and Malaysian ringgit are 5.235, N/A, 16.820, 1488.350, 33.000, N/A respectively. The latest on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates are 6.884, the RMB central parity rate is 6.904, and the 12 - month NDF is 6.728 [3] - **Stock indices**: The latest values of major economy stock indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Index, NASDAQ, Mexican index, UK index, French CAC, German DAX, Spanish index, Russian index, Nikkei, Hang Seng Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Taiwan index, South Korean index, Indian index, Thai index, Malaysian index, Australian index, and emerging - economy index are 6581.000, 46208.470, 21946.760, 64370.950, 9894.150, 7726.200, 22653.860, 16888.200, N/A, 51515.490, 24382.470, 3813.283, 32722.500, 5405.750, N/A, 1397.340, N/A, 8552.642, 1419.950 respectively [3] - **Credit bond indices**: The latest values of US investment - grade, euro - area investment - grade, emerging - economy investment - grade, US high - yield, euro - area high - yield, and emerging - economy high - yield credit bond indices are 3518.560, 263.418, 286.650, 2900.390, 404.460, 1807.438 respectively [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 3813.28, 4418.00, 2792.33, 3235.22, 7440.75 respectively, with percentage changes of - 3.63%, - 3.26%, - 3.17%, - 3.49%, - 4.11% [4] - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are 13.61, 11.11, 33.60, 25.75, 16.36 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.41, - 0.33, - 1.48, 0.29, 0.20 [4] - **Risk premium**: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 and German DAX are - 0.46, 3.11 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.01, - 0.04 [4] - **Fund flow**: The latest values of fund flow in A - shares, the main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are - 1165.82, - 790.08, N/A, - 247.62, - 273.17 respectively, and the 5 - day average values are - 1062.59, - 815.58, N/A, - 166.72, - 172.62 respectively [4] Transaction Data of Other Markets - **Transaction amount**: The latest transaction amounts of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small and medium - sized board, and ChiNext are 24315.18, 6717.20, 1739.93, 4659.68, 6124.16 respectively, with环比 changes of 1447.07, 562.57, 382.62, 494.51, - 471.44 [5] - **Main contract basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC are - 73.60, - 16.33, - 205.75 respectively, with basis spreads of - 1.67%, - 0.58%, - 2.77% [5] - **Treasury futures**: The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 are 108.15, 105.92, 108.11, 105.72 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.10%, - 0.06%, - 0.08%, - 0.07% [5] - **Funding rates**: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are 1.3961%, 1.4763%, 1.5182% respectively, with daily changes of - 8.00 BP, 0.00 BP, 0.00 BP [5]

1. Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.382, UK 4.991, France 3.754, Germany 3.041, Italy 3.962, Spain 3.578, Switzerland 0.373, Greece 3.942, Japan 2.269, Brazil 6.391, China 1.836, South Korea 3.738, Australia 5.024, New Zealand 4.737 [1] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.902, UK 4.562, Germany 2.669, Japan 1.265, Italy 2.942, China (1Y yield) 1.248, South Korea 3.298, Australia 4.786 [1] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.316, Russia (not provided), South Africa zar 17.038, South Korean won 1504.500, Thai baht 32.780, Malaysian ringgit (not provided) [1] - The latest exchange rates of the RMB: on - shore RMB 6.904, off - shore RMB 6.907, RMB central parity rate 6.890, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.750 [1] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6506.480, Dow Jones Industrial Average 45577.470, NASDAQ 21647.610, Mexican stock index 64134.900, UK stock index 9918.330, France CAC 7665.620, Germany DAX 22380.190, Spanish stock index 16714.000, Russian stock index (not provided), Nikkei (not provided), Hang Seng Index 25277.320, Shanghai Composite Index 3957.053, Taiwan stock index 33543.880, South Korean stock index 5781.200, Indian stock index (not provided), Thai stock index 1432.990, Malaysian stock index (not provided), Australian stock index 8628.343, emerging - economy stock index 1463.330 [1] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3502.620, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 263.213, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 287.020, US high - yield credit - bond index 2890.570, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 405.530, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1801.252 [1] 2. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 3957.05, down 1.24%; CSI 300 closing price 4567.02, down 0.35%; SSE 50 closing price 2883.86, down 1.11%; ChiNext closing price 3352.10, up 1.30%; CSI 500 closing price 7760.04, down 1.49% [2] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.02 with a环比 change of - 0.07; SSE 50 is 11.44 with a环比 change of - 0.09; CSI 500 is 35.08 with a环比 change of - 0.55; S&P 500 is 25.46 with a环比 change of - 0.39; Germany DAX is 16.16 with a环比 change of - 0.33 [2] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.45 with a环比 change of - 0.07; Germany DAX is 3.15 with a环比 change of 0.04 [2] - Fund flow: The latest value of A - share fund flow is - 1184.72, main board is - 961.21, small - and medium - sized enterprise board (not provided), ChiNext is - 172.18, CSI 300 is - 178.73; the 5 - day average is - 934.25 for A - shares, - 776.90 for the main board, (not provided) for the small - and medium - sized enterprise board, - 103.12 for ChiNext, - 147.51 for CSI 300 [2] - Transaction amount: The latest transaction amount of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 22868.11, with a环比 change of 1758.42; CSI 300 is 6154.63, with a环比 change of 676.13; SSE 50 is 1357.31, with a环比 change of - 6.88; small - and medium - sized board is 4165.17, with a环比 change of 182.86; ChiNext is 6595.60, with a环比 change of 1178.11 [3] - Main contract basis: IF basis is - 80.62, with a basis amplitude of - 1.77%; IH basis is - 18.06, with a basis amplitude of - 0.63%; IC basis is - 200.64, with a basis amplitude of - 2.59% [3] 3. Treasury Futures Trading Data - Closing prices of treasury futures: T2303 is 108.26, down 0.07%; TF2303 is 105.99, down 0.07%; T2306 is 108.20, down 0.08%; TF2306 is 105.80, down 0.06% [3] - Fund interest rates: R001 is 1.3961%, with a daily change of - 9.00 BP; R007 is 1.4769%, with a daily change of - 1.00 BP; SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5220%, with a daily change of - 1.00 BP [3]

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.251, UK 4.841, France 3.640, Germany 2.957, Italy 3.776, Spain 3.463, Switzerland 0.342, Greece 3.770, Japan 2.269, Brazil 6.244, China 1.836, Australia 4.976, New Zealand 4.685 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.793, UK 4.401, Germany 2.586, Japan 1.265, Italy 2.823, China (1Y yield) 1.251, Australia 4.615 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.221, South Africa zar 16.763, Korean won 1495.350, Thai baht 32.785, Malaysian ringgit 3.936 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the RMB: on - shore RMB 6.891, off - shore RMB 6.878, RMB central parity rate 6.898, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.733 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6606.490, Dow Jones Industrial Average 46021.430, NASDAQ 22090.690, Mexican stock index 65199.400, UK stock index 10063.500, French CAC 7807.870, German DAX 22839.560, Spanish stock index 16905.900, Russian stock index (not available), Nikkei 53372.530, Hang Seng Index 25500.580, Shanghai Composite Index 4006.552, Taiwan stock index 33689.680, Korean stock index 5763.220, Indian stock index (not available), Thai stock index 1417.450, Malaysian stock index 1720.710, Australian stock index 8690.741, emerging - economy stock index 1476.210 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3532.360, euro - area investment - grade credit - bond index 264.135, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 288.420, US high - yield credit - bond index 2901.920, euro - area high - yield credit - bond index 406.560, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1812.641 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 4006.55, down 1.39%; CSI 300 closing price 4583.25, down 1.61%; SSE 50 closing price 2916.23, down 1.53%; ChiNext closing price 3309.10, down 1.11%; CSI 500 closing price 7877.09, down 2.71% [4] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.09 (down 0.09), SSE 50 is 11.53 (down 0.02), CSI 500 is 35.63 (down 0.84), S&P 500 is 25.85 (down 0.07), German DAX is 16.25 (down 0.94) [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.38 (up 0.03), German DAX is 3.20 (up 0.32) [4] - Fund flow: A - share latest value - 1611.90, 5 - day average - 924.63; main - board latest value - 1212.19, 5 - day average - 750.58; ChiNext latest value - 275.27, 5 - day average - 104.94; CSI 300 latest value - 301.52, 5 - day average - 127.05 [4] Group 3: Other Trading Data - Transaction amount: The latest value of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 21109.69, up 649.05; CSI 300 is 5478.50, up 236.76; SSE 50 is 1364.19, up 226.97; small - and medium - sized board is 3982.31, down 139.03; ChiNext is 5417.49, up 18.74 [5] - Main contract basis: IF basis 3.35 (0.07%), IH basis 3.97 (0.14%), IC basis 9.31 (0.12%) [5] - Treasury futures: T2303 closing price 108.33, up 0.06%; TF2303 closing price 106.06, up 0.06%; T2306 closing price 108.29, up 0.07%; TF2306 closing price 105.86, up 0.04% [5] - Fund interest rates: R001 is 1.3969% (down 9.00 BP), R007 is 1.4851% (no change), SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5280% (no change) [5]

Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.267, UK 4.735, France 3.603, Germany 2.938, Italy 3.726, Spain 3.434, Switzerland 0.338, Greece 3.720, Japan 2.211, Brazil 6.273, China 1.831, Australia 4.897, New Zealand 4.595 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.777, UK 4.096, Germany 2.442, Japan 1.247, Italy 2.664, China (1Y yield) 1.254, Australia 4.506 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.268, South Africa zar 16.990, Korean won 1500.600, Thai baht 32.372, Malaysian ringgit 3.916 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the RMB: on - shore RMB 6.888, off - shore RMB 6.900, RMB central parity rate 6.891, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.754 [3] - The latest stock indices of major economies: S&P 500 6624.700, Dow Jones Industrial Average 46225.150, NASDAQ 22152.420, Mexican stock index 65779.230, UK stock index 10305.290, French CAC 7969.880, German DAX 23502.250, Spanish stock index 17299.100, Japanese Nikkei 55239.400, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 26025.420, Shanghai Composite Index 4062.984, Taiwan stock index 34348.580, Korean stock index 5925.030, Thai stock index 1440.850, Malaysian stock index 1729.810, Australian stock index 8847.671, emerging - economy stock index 1517.450 [3] - The latest credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3526.900, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 264.948, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 289.040, US high - yield credit - bond index 2907.990, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 408.110, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1821.217 [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 4062.98, up 0.32%; CSI 300 closing price 4658.33, up 0.45%; SSE 50 closing price 2961.43, down 0.07%; ChiNext closing price 3346.37, up 2.02%; CSI 500 closing price 8096.43, up 1.00% [4] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.18 with a 0.02环比 change; SSE 50 is 11.55 with a 0.00环比 change; CSI 500 is 36.47 with a 0.31环比 change; S&P 500 is 25.93 with a - 0.35环比 change; German DAX is 17.19 with a - 0.17环比 change [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.41 with a - 0.01环比 change; German DAX is 2.88 with a 0.02环比 change [4] - Fund flow: A - share latest value is 287.74, 5 - day average is - 831.95; main - board latest value is - 112.26, 5 - day average is - 642.52; ChiNext latest value is 333.56, 5 - day average is - 119.47; CSI 300 latest value is 35.24, 5 - day average is - 93.88 [4] - Transaction amount: The latest value of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 20460.64, with a - 1617.97环比 change; CSI 300 is 5241.74, with a - 543.28环比 change; SSE 50 is 1137.22, with a - 186.62环比 change; small - and medium - sized board is 4121.34, with a - 408.72环比 change; ChiNext is 5398.75, with a - 197.99环比 change [5] - Main contract basis: IF basis is - 6.93, amplitude is - 0.15%; IH basis is - 2.83, amplitude is - 0.10%; IC basis is - 10.43, amplitude is - 0.13% [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data - Closing prices: T2303 is 108.27, up 0.12%; TF2303 is 106.00, up 0.08%; T2306 is 108.21, up 0.09%; TF2306 is 105.81, up 0.07% [5] - Fund interest rates: R001 is 1.3976%, daily change is - 10.00 BP; R007 is 1.4946%, daily change is - 1.00 BP; SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5320%, daily change is - 1.00 BP [5]

1. Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.200, UK 4.691, France 3.554, Germany 2.904, Italy 3.654, Spain 3.383, Switzerland 0.315, Greece 3.652, Japan 2.266, Brazil 6.194, China 1.839, South Korea (not available), Australia 4.939, New Zealand 4.674 [1] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.676, UK 4.039, Germany 2.379, Japan 1.272, Italy 2.580, China (1Y yield) 1.264, South Korea (not available), Australia 4.535 [1] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.193, Russia (not available), South Africa zar 16.669, Korean won 1488.250, Thai baht 32.357, Malaysian ringgit 3.918 [1] - The latest exchange rates of the RMB: on - shore RMB 6.885, off - shore RMB 6.883, RMB central parity rate 6.896, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.742 [1] - The latest stock indices of major economies: S&P 500 6716.090, Dow Jones Industrial Average 46993.260, NASDAQ 22479.530, Mexican stock index 66196.920, UK stock index 10403.600, France CAC 7974.490, Germany DAX 23730.920, Spanish stock index 17248.700, Russian stock index (not available), Nikkei 53700.390, Hang Seng Index 25868.540, Shanghai Composite Index 4049.907, Taiwan stock index 33836.570, South Korean stock index 5640.480, Indian stock index 7106.839, Thai stock index 1433.880, Malaysian stock index 1710.990, Australian stock index 8819.370, emerging - economy stock index 1495.430 [1] - The latest credit bond indices: US investment - grade credit bond index 3537.090, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index 265.325, emerging - economy investment - grade credit bond index 289.570, US high - yield credit bond index 2912.690, euro - zone high - yield credit bond index 407.760, emerging - economy high - yield credit bond index 1825.760 [1] 2. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 4049.91, down 0.85%; CSI 300 closing price 4637.44, down 0.73%; SSE 50 closing price 2963.58, up 0.32%; ChiNext closing price 3280.06, down 2.29%; CSI 500 closing price 8016.03, down 2.07% [2] - Valuation: PE (TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.16 with a环比 change of - 0.04; SSE 50 is 11.55 with a环比 change of 0.06; CSI 500 is 36.16 with a环比 change of - 0.74; S&P 500 is 26.28 with a环比 change of 0.06; Germany DAX is 17.35 with a环比 change of 0.12 [2] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.40 with a环比 change of 0.00; Germany DAX is 2.86 with a环比 change of 0.00 [2] - Fund flow: The latest value of A - shares is - 1638.26, the main board is - 1002.16, the small and medium - sized enterprise board (not available), ChiNext is - 472.07, and CSI 300 is - 144.93. The 5 - day average values are - 1021.75, - 688.78, (not available), - 225.33, and - 86.96 respectively [2] 3. Other Trading Data - Transaction amount: The latest transaction amount of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 22078.61, with a环比 change of - 1174.70; CSI 300 is 5785.02, with a环比 change of - 202.97; SSE 50 is 1323.84, with a环比 change of - 114.78; small - cap board is 4530.06, with a环比 change of - 214.58; ChiNext is 5596.74, with a环比 change of 38.97 [3] - Main contract basis: IF basis is - 8.64, amplitude - 0.19%; IH basis is - 1.58, amplitude - 0.05%; IC basis is - 16.03, amplitude - 0.20% [3] - Treasury futures: T2303 closing price is 108.14, up 0.02%; TF2303 closing price is 105.91, up 0.02%; T2306 closing price is 108.11, up 0.01%; TF2306 closing price is 105.74, up 0.01% [3] - Fund interest rates: R001 is 1.3968% with a daily change of - 10.00 BP; R007 is 1.4988% with a daily change of 0.00 BP; SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5358% with a daily change of 0.00 BP [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Bonds**: Yields for 10 - year Treasuries in major economies are as follows - US: 4.218, UK: 4.767, France: 3.615, Germany: 2.950, Italy: 3.724, Spain: 3.438, Switzerland: 0.356, Greece: 3.709, Japan: 2.266, Brazil: 6.225, China: 1.842, Australia: 5.001, New Zealand: 4.739 [3] - **2 - year Treasury Bonds**: Yields for 2 - year Treasuries in major economies are as follows - US: 3.672, UK: 4.094, Germany: 2.398, Japan: 1.272, Italy: 2.614, China (1Y yield): 1.267, Australia: 4.562 [3] - **Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are: Brazil 5.231, Russia (not provided), South Africa zar 16.675, South Korean won 1492.650, Thai baht 32.510, Malaysian ringgit 3.929. The latest on - shore RMB is 6.891, off - shore RMB is 6.889, the middle - price is 6.906, and the 12 - month NDF is 6.746 [3] - **Stock Indices**: The latest values of major economy stock indices are: S&P 500 6699.380, Dow Jones Industrial Index 46946.410, NASDAQ 22374.180, Mexican index (not provided), UK index 10317.690, France CAC 7935.970, Germany DAX 23564.010, Spanish index 17089.400, Russian index (not provided), Nikkei 53751.150, Hang Seng Index 25834.020, Shanghai Composite Index 4084.786, Taiwan index 33342.510, South Korean index 5549.850, Indian index 7022.288, Thai index 1405.020, Malaysian index 1696.560, Australian index 8793.436, emerging - economy index 1479.350 [3] - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest values of credit bond indices are: US investment - grade credit bond index 3524.910, Euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index 264.844, emerging - economy investment - grade credit bond index 289.450, US high - yield credit bond index 2906.300, Euro - zone high - yield credit bond index 406.930, emerging - economy high - yield credit bond index 1822.690 [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 4084.79, 4671.56, 2954.09, 3357.02, and 8185.15 respectively. The percentage changes are - 0.26%, 0.05%, - 0.09%, 1.41%, and - 0.66% respectively [4] - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX are 14.20, 11.49, 36.90, 26.19, and 17.23 respectively. The环比 changes are - 0.01, 0.00, - 0.21, 0.26, and 0.09 respectively [4] - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 is - 0.40 and that of Germany DAX is 2.85. The环比 changes are 0.02 and 0.00 respectively [4] - **Fund Flows**: The latest values of fund flows for A - shares, main board, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are - 524.13, - 596.68, (not provided), 70.36, and - 147.62 respectively. The 5 - day average values are - 624.18, - 487.62, (not provided), - 87.56, and - 39.22 respectively [4] Other Trading Data - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, and ChiNext are 23253.31, 5987.99, 1438.62, 4744.64, and 5557.77 respectively. The环比 changes are - 749.86, 184.93, 96.23, - 121.05, and - 206.30 respectively [5] - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC are - 13.56, 2.91, and 28.65 respectively, with the basis percentage changes of - 0.29%, 0.10%, and 0.35% respectively [5] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 are 108.12, 105.89, 108.10, and 105.72 respectively. The percentage changes are - 0.15%, - 0.11%, - 0.12%, and - 0.23% respectively [5] - **Funding Rates**: The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are 1.3993%, 1.5016%, and 1.5380% respectively. The daily changes are - 10.00 BP, 0.00 BP, and 0.00 BP respectively [5]

Report Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The industrial production is showing signs of recovery, with some indicators rising and others falling. The flow of people has declined, while freight prices have increased slightly. The movie market has weakened, and prices continue to decline. Construction shows seasonal improvement, and the real estate market has rebounded. Container throughput has increased slightly, and shipping indices have recovered. The performance of major asset classes is mixed [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Major Asset Classes - This week, bond indices, stock indices, and commodities showed mixed performance, and foreign currencies, except for the US dollar, generally declined. Among bond indices, the AA+, AA, and AA- corporate bond indices of ChinaBond rose the most, with a gain of 0.04%, while the 10-year ChinaBond Treasury bond index fell the most, with a decline of 0.15%. Among stock indices, the ChiNext index rose the most, with a weekly gain of 2.51%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index fell the most, with a decline of 2.88%. Among commodities, the Nanhua Energy and Chemicals Index rose the most, with a gain of 9.76%, and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell the most, with a decline of 1.52%. Foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest decline of 1.17%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB, with a weekly gain of 0.07% [2][6]. 2. Industrial Production - Production has recovered. In the upstream, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 0.30 pcts week-on-week to 23.00%, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.67 pcts week-on-week to 78.36%, and the crude steel output decreased by 0.10% week-on-week. In the real estate chain, the rebar operating rate increased by 2.62 pcts week-on-week to 38.38%, the float glass operating rate decreased by 0.10 pcts to 71.42%, and the mill operation rate decreased by 1.94 pcts week-on-week to 14.62%. In the consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operating rate increased by 4.3 pcts week-on-week to 88.79%, the PTA operating rate increased by 0.64 pcts week-on-week to 80.33%, and the methanol operating rate decreased by 1.22 pcts week-on-week to 85.61%. In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi-steel tires increased by 3.68 pcts week-on-week to 77.71%, and the operating rate of automobile all-steel tires increased by 4.32 pcts week-on-week to 70.22% [2][9]. 3. People and Freight Flow - The flow of people has declined, and freight prices have increased slightly. The 7DMA of the national migration scale index decreased by 14.30% week-on-week, the 7DMA of the number of domestic flights decreased by 7.34% week-on-week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights decreased by 4.63% week-on-week. The subway passenger volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou increased week-on-week, while that in Beijing decreased. The 4WMA of the road logistics freight rate index increased by 0.03% week-on-week, and the total volume was slightly higher than the same period last year [2][28]. 4. Consumption - The movie market has weakened, and prices continue to decline. The previous period's automobile wholesale and retail sales decreased month-on-month, but the 4WMA of the year-on-year growth rate of wholesale and retail sales increased. This period's movie box office decreased by 64.00% week-on-week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 63.00% week-on-week. Agricultural product prices decreased slightly, with pork prices decreasing by 4.99% week-on-week and vegetable prices decreasing by 5.18% week-on-week [2][44]. 5. Investment - Construction shows seasonal improvement, and the real estate market has rebounded. This period's cement inventory ratio decreased by 0.3% week-on-week, the cement price index decreased by 0.38% week-on-week, and the cement shipping rate increased by 5.2% week-on-week. The rebar inventory increased by 2.6% week-on-week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 1.73% week-on-week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 80.0% week-on-week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction shows seasonal improvement. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities increased by 4.7% week-on-week. By city tier, the commercial housing transaction areas in first- and third-tier cities increased, while that in second-tier cities decreased. The 7DMA of the second-hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 4.31% week-on-week, and the national second-hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.8% week-on-week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week-on-week [2][54]. 6. Exports - Container throughput has increased slightly, and shipping indices have recovered. This period's port cargo throughput decreased by 0.42% week-on-week, and container throughput increased by 1.4% week-on-week. The BDI index increased by 0.90% week-on-week, the domestic SCFI index increased by 14.85% week-on-week, and the CCFI index increased by 1.70% week-on-week [2][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the economic situation from multiple aspects during the period of 2026.03.08 - 2026.03.14, indicating that industrial production is recovering, personnel flow is decreasing, freight prices are slightly rising, the film market is weakening, prices are continuing to decline, construction is seasonally warming up, the real - estate market is recovering, exports show a slight increase, and the performance of major asset classes is mixed [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Large - scale Assets - This week, bond indices showed mixed performance, stock indices showed mixed performance, commodities showed mixed performance, and foreign currencies, except the US dollar, generally declined. Among bond indices, the AA +, AA, and AA - indices of ChinaBond corporate bonds rose the most, with a gain of 0.04%, while the 10 - year ChinaBond Treasury bond index fell the most, with a decline of 0.15%. Among stock indices, the ChiNext index rose the most, with a weekly gain of 2.51%, and the Sci - tech Innovation 50 index fell the most, with a decline of 2.88%. Among commodities, the Nanhua Energy and Chemicals Index rose the most, with a gain of 9.76%, and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell the most, with a decline of 1.52%. Foreign currencies against the RMB generally fell, with the Japanese yen having the largest decline of 1.17%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB, with a weekly gain of 0.07% [4][9]. 3.2. Industrial Production - Production has recovered. In the upstream, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 0.30 pcts week - on - week to 23.00%, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.67 pcts week - on - week to 78.36%, and the crude steel output decreased by 0.10% week - on - week. In the real - estate chain, the operating rate of rebar increased by 2.62 pcts week - on - week to 38.38%, the operating rate of float glass decreased by 0.10 pcts week - on - week to 71.42%, and the mill operation rate decreased by 1.94 pcts week - on - week to 14.62%. In the general consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament increased by 4.3 pcts week - on - week to 88.79%, the PTA operating rate increased by 0.64 pcts week - on - week to 80.33%, and the methanol operating rate decreased by 1.22 pcts week - on - week to 85.61%. In the automobile chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires increased by 3.68 pcts week - on - week to 77.71%, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 4.32 pcts week - on - week to 70.22% [4][12]. 3.3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow has decreased, and freight prices have risen slightly. In terms of personnel flow, the 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index decreased by 14.30% week - on - week, the 7DMA of the number of domestic flights decreased by 7.34% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights decreased by 4.63% week - on - week. The subway passenger volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou increased week - on - week, while that in Beijing decreased. In terms of freight flow, the 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index increased by 0.03% week - on - week, and the total volume was slightly higher than the same period last year [4][32]. 3.4. Consumption - The film market has weakened, and price performance has continued to decline. In the previous period, automobile wholesale and retail sales decreased month - on - month, and the 4WMA of the year - on - year growth rate of wholesale and retail sales increased. This period, the weekly box office of movies decreased by 64.00% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of movie - goers decreased by 63.00% week - on - week. Agricultural product prices decreased slightly, with the pork price decreasing by 4.99% week - on - week and the vegetable price decreasing by 5.18% week - on - week [4][48]. 3.5. Investment - Construction shows seasonal warming, and the real - estate market has recovered. This period, the cement inventory - to - capacity ratio decreased by 0.3% week - on - week, the cement price index decreased by 0.38% week - on - week, and the cement shipment rate increased by 5.2% week - on - week. The rebar inventory increased by 2.6% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 1.73% week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 80.0% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction shows seasonal warming. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 4.7% week - on - week. By city - tier, the commercial housing transaction areas in first - and third - tier cities increased, while that in second - tier cities decreased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 4.31% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [4][58]. 3.6. Exports - Container throughput has increased slightly, and shipping indices have recovered. This period, the port cargo throughput decreased by 0.42% week - on - week, and the container throughput increased by 1.4% week - on - week. The BDI index increased by 0.90% week - on - week, the domestic SCFI index increased by 14.85% week - on - week, and the CCFI index increased by 1.70% week - on - week [4][74].

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.232, UK 4.686, France 3.569, Germany 2.931, Italy 3.667, Spain 3.407, Switzerland 0.384, Greece 3.660, Japan 2.163, Brazil 6.110, China 1.821, Australia 4.850, New Zealand 4.564 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.654, UK 4.001, Germany 2.373, Japan 1.242, Italy 2.584, China (1Y yield) 1.268, Australia 4.431 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.157, South Africa zar 16.489, Korean won 1476.350, Thai baht 31.737, Malaysian ringgit 3.919 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the RMB: on - shore RMB 6.874, off - shore RMB 6.877, RMB central parity 6.892, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.748 [3] - The latest indices of major economies: S&P 500 6775.800, Dow Jones Industrial Average 47417.270, Nasdaq 22716.130, Mexican index 67559.780, UK index 10353.770, France CAC 8041.810, Germany DAX 23640.030, Spanish index 17351.900, Russian index (not provided), Nikkei 55025.370, Hang Seng Index 25898.760, Shanghai Composite Index 4133.433, Taiwan index 34114.190, Korean index 5609.950, Indian index 7389.399, Thai index 1407.340, Malaysian index 1708.780, Australian index 8976.848, emerging - economy index 1516.470 [3] - The latest credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3537.570, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 265.494, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 290.380, US high - yield credit - bond index 2923.080, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 409.670, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1840.178 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 4133.43 (up 0.25%), CSI 300 closing price 4704.50 (up 0.64%), SSE 50 closing price 2985.34 (up 0.12%), ChiNext closing price 3349.53 (up 1.31%), CSI 500 closing price 8403.33 (down 0.08%) [4] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 14.15 (no change), SSE 50 11.48 (no change), CSI 500 37.76 (no change), S&P 500 26.49 (down 0.02), Germany DAX 17.23 (down 0.27) [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 - 0.46 (down 0.07), Germany DAX 2.87 (down 0.01) [4] - Fund flow: A - share latest value - 661.25, main - board latest value - 343.56, ChiNext latest value - 195.74, CSI 300 latest value 69.84; A - share 5 - day average - 208.94, main - board 5 - day average - 218.05, ChiNext 5 - day average 4.40, CSI 300 5 - day average 30.60 [4] Group 3: Other Trading Data - Transaction amount: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets latest value 25083.78 (up 1104.90), CSI 300 latest value 5795.64 (up 219.56), SSE 50 latest value 1224.47 (up 6.85), small - and - medium - sized board latest value 5226.08 (up 584.88), ChiNext latest value 6595.69 (up 146.67) [5] - Main contract basis and spread: IF basis - 17.50 (down 0.37%), IH basis - 1.54 (down 0.05%), IC basis - 43.33 (down 0.52%) [5] - Treasury bond futures: T2303 closing price 108.34 (down 0.00%), TF2303 closing price 105.97 (up 0.04%), T2306 closing price 108.26 (down 0.04%), TF2306 closing price 105.95 (down 0.03%) [5] - Fund interest rates: R001 1.4248% (down 8.00BP), R007 1.5086% (up 1.00BP), SHIBOR - 3M 1.5470% (no change) [5]