Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No rating indicated [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The crude oil market maintains a volatile trend, and the price center still faces downward pressure in the medium term, but short - term long positions in futures and options are at a low level, and a strategy of buying out - of - the - money options is recommended for hedging [2] - The fuel oil system shows relatively stronger performance than SC, but the expected increase in heavy - quality resources from the Middle East still suppresses the market [3] - For asphalt, demand is expected to pick up during the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season, and the price fluctuates weakly, with the 10 - contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] - The overseas LPG market is stabilizing, but the domestic market is under pressure, and the high - basis pattern can continue, with the market mainly in low - level fluctuations [5] Summary by Product Crude Oil - The SC10 contract fell 0.47%. The market faces the pressure of accelerated inventory accumulation after the third - quarter peak season, and the price center may shift down in the medium term. Short - term net long positions in overseas futures and options are at a low level. Hold out - of - the - money option double - buy strategies for hedging and then intervene in medium - term short positions after volatility increases [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil system is relatively stronger than SC, with cracking strengthening. The shipment of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East to Asia is increasing, and the inventory in Fujairah has decreased. The total arrival volume in August increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared with June. The high - sulfur is relatively under pressure, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has widened [3] Asphalt - After the US resumes importing Venezuelan oil, it is expected to have a diversion effect on North Asian resources. Sinopec's asphalt production has a trend of increasing year - on - year decline. Road demand is expected to pick up during the "Golden September and Silver October" season. The 8 - month sample refinery shipment increased by 8% year - on - year. The BU single - side price follows the SC's fluctuations, and the 10 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] LPG - The overseas market is stabilizing. Domestic imports and refinery outflows are increasing, and domestic gas is under pressure. The cost advantage of propane is weakening, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the high - operating rate. The top pressure is strong under high - level warehouse receipts, and the market is mainly in low - level fluctuations [5]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends in various commodities. Some commodities face supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by geopolitical, policy, and seasonal factors. Summary by Commodity - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a volatile state. After the third - quarter peak season, there is pressure for accelerated inventory accumulation. The price center may decline in the medium - term, but short - term options strategies are recommended for risk - hedging [2]. - **Precious Metals**: They are in a weak operation recently due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment. Investors should wait patiently for callback layout positions [3]. - **Copper**: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. The market is cautious about economic growth risks. Short - term operations are recommended based on price levels [4]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: - **Aluminum**: It shows short - term fluctuations. The inventory peak may be approaching, and the lower support level is around 20,300 yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: It is in a weak and volatile state due to supply surplus [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum. There is a possibility that the cross - variety spread with AL will gradually narrow [6]. - **Zinc**: The supply has increased, and demand is weak. The price has fallen for 5 consecutive days. Be vigilant about macro - sentiment fluctuations in the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. - **Lead**: The consumption is not as strong as expected in the peak season, but the cost provides support. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the future [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel has slightly adjusted. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but there are still uncertainties in the market [9]. - **Tin**: The price of London Tin is relatively strong. The decline in Indonesian exports and low overseas inventory support the price [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price is in a volatile state. The market trading is active, and short - term long positions are recommended [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price has fallen. The policy details have not been updated, and there is an opportunity to go long below 50,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is in a downward trend. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Steel Products**: - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has fallen. The demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. Pay attention to the production restriction in Tangshan [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is supported by high - level hot metal in the short - term. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The price is in a volatile state. The production restriction expectation of coking plants is rising, and the inventory is decreasing [16]. - **Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron**: The price is in a downward trend. They are affected by the "anti - involution" policy and follow the trend of coking coal [17][18]. - **Shipping Index**: The spot price is declining, and the market is in a bearish atmosphere [19]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East is increasing [20]. - **Asphalt**: The demand is expected to recover in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 3,400 - 3,500 yuan/ton [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market is stable. The domestic market is under pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [22]. Group 2: Chemicals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, policy, and cost. Different chemicals show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Urea**: The export policy news affects the market. The short - term supply and demand are loose, and the price is affected by market sentiment [23]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is increasing rapidly. The short - term market is weak, and attention should be paid to macro - and market - sentiment changes [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price has fallen at night. The fundamentals are improving, and monthly - spread band - trading is recommended [25]. - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern. The cost provides support, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply and demand of these chemicals are generally weak, and the price is under pressure [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, while caustic soda is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term but with limited long - term increase [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The price has fallen at night. The demand for polyester is expected to increase, and the valuation of PX is expected to improve [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has fallen slightly. It is in a short - term low - level fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery rhythm [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand of short - fiber are stable, and it is recommended to be long - configured in the medium - term. The processing margin of bottle chip is in a low - level fluctuation [31]. - **Glass**: The price has fallen at night. The demand is weak, but the cost increase may prevent it from breaking the previous low [32]. - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the demand is general. The market sentiment is pessimistic [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure in the long - term [34]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Agricultural products are affected by factors such as weather, policy, and supply - demand balance. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is in good condition, but there are challenges in the future. The domestic soybean meal price has increased, and the market is cautiously bullish [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The price has fallen. Be cautious about short - term fluctuations and maintain a long - position strategy in the long - term [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price is in a weak state. It is expected to have a short - term weak rebound, and attention should be paid to new developments in imports [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price has fallen. The supply has increased through auction, and attention should be paid to weather, policy, and imported soybean performance [38]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn auction has a low success rate. The US corn is in good condition, and the domestic corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Pig**: The short - term spot price has increased slightly, but the medium - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended for industries to hedge at high prices [40]. - **Egg**: The futures price is in an accelerated decline. The high - capacity pressure requires price decline for de - capacity. Attention should be paid to various factors [41]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has fallen slightly. The domestic cotton price is affected by downstream orders and production expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - **Apple**: The price is in a volatile state. The market focuses on the new - season production estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The price is in a volatile state. The supply is expected to remain low, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The price has fallen. The inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The financial market is affected by geopolitical, policy, and macro - economic factors. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The geopolitical pressure on market risk preference has been relieved. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is difficult to recover significantly in the short - term. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a clearer bearish trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, meaning a bearish stance with a clearer downward trend and the market situation is developing [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, showing a clearer bearish trend and an appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, representing a clearer bearish trend and a proper investment chance [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market faces accelerated inventory accumulation pressure, with the price center likely to decline in the medium - term, but short - term uncertainties remain, and a strategy of holding out - of - the - money option straddles for hedging is recommended [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak in the oil product futures, while low - sulfur fuel oil is strong. The increase in high - sulfur fuel oil supply from the Middle East to Asia suppresses the market [3] - For asphalt, although production is declining, demand is expected to pick up during the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season. The price will fluctuate weakly, with the 10 - contract expected to trade in a narrow range of 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] - The overseas LPG market is stabilizing, but the domestic market is under pressure. The cost advantage of propane is weakening, and the market will mainly oscillate at a low level [5] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Since the second half of the year, global oil inventories have increased by 0.5%, with crude oil inventories decreasing by 0.7% and refined oil inventories increasing by 2.6%. In the fourth quarter, supply - demand surplus will expand, and there will be an annual surplus of 2.52 million barrels per day in 2026 [2] - Short - term overseas crude oil futures and options net long positions are at a low level, and uncertainties in the US - Russia - Ukraine negotiations remain. Hold out - of - the - money option straddles for hedging and wait for volatility to increase before taking mid - term short positions [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is strong, especially in the past two trading days, LU has risen against SC [3] - High - sulfur fuel oil shipments from the Middle East to Asia are increasing, and the total arrival volume in August has increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared to June. The high - low differentiation of domestic FU and LU warehouse receipts has widened the high - low sulfur spread [3] Asphalt - After the US resumes importing Venezuelan oil, it is expected to divert North Asian resources. Sinopec's increase in deep - processing load has led to a year - on - year decline in asphalt cumulative production [4] - With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season, road demand is expected to pick up. In August, the sample refinery shipments increased by 8% year - on - year, and leading indicators are positive [4] - The low basis in South China supports the spot price, while the high basis in Shandong has shifted the spot price center down. The BU single - side price follows SC but with a smaller amplitude, and the low inventory still supports the price, with the 10 - contract expected to trade in a narrow range of 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] LPG - The overseas LPG market has stabilized recently. Although exports are increasing, the procurement demand in East Asia provides support. In the domestic market, imports and refinery outflows are rising, but domestic gas is still under pressure due to weak gas demand [5] - After the recent decline in crude oil has driven down naphtha, the cost advantage of propane has been continuously weakened. Concerns about the sustainability of the current high operating rate are raised under the expectation of falling chemical gross margins [5] - The market is waiting for the realization of bearish expectations. With high warehouse receipts, the top pressure is strong, and the high - basis pattern will continue, with the market mainly oscillating at a low level [5]

1. Market Performance 1.1 International Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures fell 0.76% to $3382.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.47% to $38.04 per ounce [2][47]. 1.2 Crude Oil - The main contract of U.S. crude oil rose 2.04% to $63.93 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil rose 1.92% to $66.89 per barrel [3][48]. 1.3 London Base Metals - LME nickel fell 1.4%, LME tin fell 0.87%, LME copper fell 0.27%, while LME zinc rose 0.48%, LME aluminum rose 0.31%, and LME lead rose 0.1% [3][50]. 1.4 Domestic Futures - Domestic futures contracts mostly declined. LPG rose over 1%, while rapeseed meal fell over 2%, and rapeseed oil, 20 - rubber, synthetic rubber, and caustic soda fell over 1% [4]. 1.5 Financial Markets - A - shares fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.46% to 3666.44 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.08%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.37% to 25519.32 points [30][32]. 2. Important Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Information - Fed's Daly opposed a 50 - basis - point rate cut at the September meeting. The U.S. 7 - month PPI far exceeded expectations. China's central bank conducted 500 billion yuan of 6 - month reverse repurchase operations [6][7]. 2.2 Energy and Chemical Futures - Domestic soda ash inventory increased, while Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased. Russia's refined oil exports reached a high level [11][12][15]. 2.3 Metal Futures - The China Chemical and Physical Power Supply Industry Association issued an initiative for the energy storage industry, and the operating capacity of alumina increased [17]. 2.4 Black - series Futures - A coal mine in Shanxi planned to resume production, and coal supply in Shaanxi tightened. Steel production and inventory showed different trends [19][21]. 2.5 Agricultural Product Futures - Argentina's soybean and corn production had new forecasts. India's palm oil and sunflower oil imports changed, and U.S. soybean and corn exports were lower than expected [25][27]. 3. Company Performance - JD Group's second - quarter revenue increased by 22.4%. NetEase's second - quarter revenue increased by 9.4%. Foxconn's second - quarter revenue and profit reached new highs [34][35][10]. 4. Industry Dynamics 4.1 Aviation - The China Air Transport Association issued an aviation passenger self - discipline convention [36]. 4.2 Semiconductor - China's first domestic commercial electron - beam lithography machine entered application testing [37]. 4.3 Express Delivery - In July, express delivery business revenue increased by 8.9%, and business volume increased by 15.1% [38]. 4.4 Real Estate - Shanghai real - estate platforms hid historical transaction prices of second - hand houses [39]. 4.5 Banking - Financial regulators in some regions proposed "anti - involution" measures for the banking industry [41]. 5. Overseas Markets 5.1 U.S. - Trump signed an executive order to relax commercial space regulations. U.S. PPI data affected market expectations [42]. 5.2 UK - UK's second - quarter GDP grew by 0.3% [42]. 5.3 International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks were mixed, European stocks rose, and Japanese stocks fell [43][45][46]. 5.4 Bonds - Domestic and U.S. bond yields generally rose [51]. 5.5 Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB rose against the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar index rose [52]. 6. Upcoming Events and Data Releases 6.1 Data Releases - Multiple economic data will be released, including Japan's GDP, China's economic indicators, and U.S. retail sales [55]. 6.2 Events - There are events such as central bank operations, news conferences, and corporate earnings releases [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to maintain high - level volatility, driven by the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and geopolitical risk premiums. The tight - balance pattern of supply remains unchanged, domestic demand has resilience but high prices suppress restocking flexibility, and overseas demand is weak. The probability of a September interest rate cut indicated by CME interest rate futures has risen to 90%, and the weakening dollar provides support, but the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical risk may cause emotional fluctuations [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On August 11, the SHFE copper main contract closed at 79,020 yuan/ton, up 580 yuan/ton or 0.74% from August 8. The spot premium strengthened, with the premium of premium copper rising from 160 yuan/ton on August 8 to 230 yuan/ton, and the premium of flat - water copper also expanding to 110 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 month spread narrowed to - 69.55 dollars/ton but remained in a deep contango range [1]. - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper open interest increased by 3,820 lots to 267,065 lots on August 8, which may reflect some short - covering. The SHFE inventory on August 11 was 155,700 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.1%, with two consecutive weeks of destocking. The LME inventory increased by 2,003 tons to 23,275 tons in a single week, increasing the overseas visible inventory pressure [2]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **供给端**: Part of the El Teniente copper mine under Codelco was approved to restart, but four mining areas remained closed due to a collapse accident, and the annual output recovery needs observation. Chifeng Gold's Laos SND project disclosed 131.5 million tons of copper - gold ore resources, but it is in the resource exploration stage and is difficult to contribute to short - term supply. Chile's copper export value in July decreased slightly by 0.4% year - on - year. Combined with the transformation of Baiyin Nonferrous's copper concentrate warehouse, the raw material supply for domestic smelting has been enhanced, and refined copper supply tends to be loose [3]. - **需求端**: Copper processing enterprises in North China maintained stable operation, but the high price of 79,000 yuan/ton suppressed downstream purchasing flexibility. The spot market showed a game between "holders holding up prices" and "rigid - demand buyers pressing down prices", and there were no obvious peak - season characteristics in terminal consumption. Overseas, the continuous contango of LME indicated insufficient overseas demand [4]. - **库存端**: Global visible inventories showed differentiation: LME inventory increased by 2,003 tons, COMEX inventory slightly increased to 264,140 short tons, while SHFE inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks. The inventory in China's bonded area was not disclosed, but the closed import window suppressed the customs declaration volume, and the sustainability of short - term destocking was questionable [5]. Market Summary - Short - term judgment: The copper price is expected to maintain high - level volatility, mainly driven by the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and geopolitical risk premiums [6]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The SMM 1 copper premium copper price on August 11 was 79,190 yuan/ton with a premium of 230 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton and 70 yuan/ton respectively from August 8. The flat - water copper premium was 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The wet - process copper premium remained unchanged at 10 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) spread was - 82 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars/ton. The SHFE price was 79,020 yuan/ton, up 580 yuan/ton. The LME price was 9,727 dollars/ton, down 42 dollars/ton. The LME inventory was 23,275 tons, up 2,003 tons. The SHFE inventory was 155,700 tons, down 150 tons. The COMEX inventory was 265,196 short tons, up 1,056 short tons [8]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On August 11, Codelco was approved to partially restart the El Teniente copper mine, with four mining areas near the collapse accident site remaining closed [9]. - On August 10, the unaffected areas of Codelco's El Teniente copper mine were approved to resume operation by the Chilean labor department [9]. - On August 8, Chifeng Gold announced new copper - gold ore resources in its Laos SND project, but it is in the exploration stage [9]. - On August 8, Chile's copper export value in July decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [10]. - On August 7, Baiyin Nonferrous started the intelligent transformation project of its copper concentrate warehouse, which will improve storage and transportation efficiency [10]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on China's PMI, US employment, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [11][13][14]

关键时刻，乌克兰突然发动袭击。 当地时间8月10日，乌克兰武装部队总参谋部通报称，当天乌克兰武装部队无人系统部队与其他部队协 同，对位于俄罗斯萨拉托夫州的萨拉托夫炼油厂发动了打击。 此次袭击发生在美俄两国总统计划在阿拉斯加举行会晤前夕。当地时间8月10日，俄外交部无任所大使 米罗什尼克表示，基辅政权通过增加对民用设施的袭击，展示了其对即将举行的美国总统特朗普与俄罗 斯总统普京谈判的态度。 前瞻会谈成果，中信证券在最新的研报中指出，此轮美俄元首会晤可能优先聚焦停火等短期目标。若本 次美俄会谈仅就短期停火达成共识，大类资产影响更可能表现为短期上的情绪反应，如黄金、原油和美 元的地缘风险溢价或阶段性回落，欧股和美股等权益资产风险偏好或短期上行。 俄罗斯遭袭 据央视新闻，当地时间8月10日，乌克兰武装部队总参谋部通报称，当天乌克兰武装部队无人系统部队 与其他部队协同，对位于俄罗斯萨拉托夫州的萨拉托夫炼油厂发动了打击，袭击导致厂区内发生爆炸和 火灾。 乌克兰武装部队总参谋部指出，萨拉托夫炼油厂是俄罗斯关键燃料基础设施，负责为俄军提供石油产 品，该厂年加工能力可达700万吨原油。 俄萨拉托夫州州长布萨尔金此前表示，在乌军 ...

人民财讯8月10日电，中信证券研报表示，美俄元首或将于8月15日举行会谈，俄乌冲突可能出现关键变 局。俄乌和谈或需要分步推进，围绕是否停火、领土控制权、是否解除对俄制裁、乌克兰战后安全安 排、美国对欧战略等问题依次展开。此轮美俄元首会晤可能优先聚焦停火等短期目标，其他目标有待后 续观察。对大类资产而言，若此次美俄会谈仅就短期停火达成共识，则对大类资产的影响更可能表现为 短期上的情绪反应，如黄金、原油和美元的地缘风险溢价或阶段性回落，欧股和美股等权益资产风险偏 好或短期上行。而若后续在解除对俄制裁等问题上取得实质性突破，或对大类资产带来更实质性的影 响，如部分商品的供给端扰动。 ...

Report Overview 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The oil market may shift to a weaker market dominated by pessimistic supply - demand fundamentals due to the weakening geopolitical risk premium and the expected loose supply - demand outlook after the peak season. The fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and LPG markets are all affected by the weakening of the oil market, with different market characteristics and trends [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC09 contract dropping 2.24% during the day. Trump imposed a 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil, to be implemented in 21 days. But the risk of Russian oil supply has weakened, and the geopolitical risk premium has significantly decreased. The supply - demand outlook for crude oil after the peak season remains loose, and the oil market may turn to a weaker trend [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - SC led the decline in the oil product market, and the weakness of fuel - related futures continued. The arrival of fuel oil in the Asian market in August was abundant, and the ship - bunkering demand lacked support. The Singapore inventory remained high, and the diesel crack spread in Singapore continued to decline. The low - sulfur fuel oil market was weak, and the high - low sulfur fuel oil price difference continued to shrink [2]. Asphalt - SC led the decline in the oil product market. The asphalt supply - side increase space is currently considered neutral, and the demand has a weak reality but a repair expectation. The asphalt's unilateral trend follows crude oil, and the BU crack spread has rebounded significantly recently [3]. LPG - After the CP was lowered, the spot market was weak. The North American market was under pressure, and the import cost continued to put pressure on the domestic market. The domestic demand has bottom - support, and the LPG futures are running at a low level with the fundamental negatives having landed [4].

1. PVC and Caustic Soda Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Caustic soda market is in the off - season, with production increasing month - on - month and spot prices generally stable with a weakening trend. There is an expected increase in supply in August, but potential supply reduction in late August may support prices. The overall expectation is neutral to weak [2]. - PVC prices are expected to continue to face pressure, with increasing inventory and limited improvement in demand. New capacity releases will add pressure to the supply side, and the downstream shows no sign of improvement [2]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's folded - 100% price dropped by 2.4%, and Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda's folded - 100% price dropped by 0.8%. The price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.2%, and the price of ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged. Futures prices also showed a downward trend [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.7%, and the PVC industry's operating rate decreased by 3.4%. The profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 12.3%, while the profit of northwest integrated production decreased by 2.2% [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of the caustic soda downstream alumina industry decreased by 4.1%, and the operating rate of PVC downstream products showed mixed trends. The pre - sales volume of PVC increased by 7.3% [2]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda's factory and warehouse inventories decreased, while PVC's total social inventory increased by 4.9% [2]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The supply - demand situation of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, and its price is slightly strong, but the rebound space is limited. The supply - demand of styrene is still weak, but short - term price support comes from the improvement of the domestic commodity atmosphere and the relatively strong pure benzene [5]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) dropped by 0.7%, and CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.9%. The price of pure benzene in East China increased by 1.2%, and the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.1% [5]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 4.1%, and styrene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 3.0% [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.5%, and the domestic pure benzene operating rate increased by 2.6%. The operating rates of downstream products showed mixed trends [5]. 3. Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The supply of PX is expected to weaken marginally in August, with limited upward and downward space. PTA's short - term price has some support, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be weak. Ethylene glycol's supply is turning loose, and short - term prices are boosted by the commodity market. Short - fiber's supply - demand pattern is weak, and bottle - chip's processing fee has limited upward space [8]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) dropped by 0.7%, and CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.9%. Most polyester product prices showed a downward trend [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX's supply is stable, and PTA's supply and demand are expected to improve in the short term but weaken in the medium term. Ethylene glycol's supply is increasing, and short - fiber's supply - demand is weak. Bottle - chip's demand is not strong [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of various products in the polyester industry chain showed different degrees of decline [8]. 4. Polyolefins Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and the downstream operating rate is at a low level. However, as the season turns to the peak season, there are potential restocking conditions. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant [11]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of LLDPE and PP showed a downward trend, and the spot prices of some products also decreased slightly [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of PP and PE is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak, but there is potential for restocking [11]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP are increasing [11]. 5. Methanol Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The inland methanol production is at a high level, and the port inventory has increased significantly this week. The downstream demand is weak due to low profits, and the 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation. The 01 contract may benefit from the seasonal peak season and potential production cuts in Iran [14]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of methanol decreased slightly, and the spot prices showed different trends in different regions [14]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol decreased by 9.5%, and the port inventory increased by 14.48% [14]. - **Operating Rate**: The domestic upstream operating rate increased by 2.28%, and the operating rates of some downstream products showed different trends [14]. 6. Crude Oil Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Recently, oil prices have been weak due to the reduction of geopolitical risk premiums and the expectation of loose supply. Although there is some demand support, the overall situation still puts pressure on the market. It is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy [17]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil dropped by 0.69%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 0.06%. The prices of refined oil products also showed a downward trend [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, but the decline in US EIA crude oil inventory and refinery processing increases show some demand support [17]. 7. Urea Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The main logic of the urea market this month is the Indian tender news. After the news was realized, the market gave back its gains due to lower - than - expected volume. The supply remains high, and the demand from the agricultural sector weakens. The export has limited support for the market, and the price returns to the oscillation range [22]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of urea showed a downward trend, and the spot prices in different regions also decreased slightly [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the operating rate of production enterprises also increased. The domestic urea inventory showed different trends [21][24].

产业期现日报 证监许可 【2011】1292 (デ「发期货 Z0017002 | 2025年8月8日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z0017002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PVC、烧碱现货&期货 | | | | | | | 品种 | 8月7日 | 8HeB | 涨跌 | 张跃幅 | 单位 | | 山东32%液碱折百价 | 2500.0 | 2562.5 | -62.5 | -2.4% | | | 山东50%液碱折百价 | 2560.0 | 2580.0 | -20.0 | -0.8% | | | 华东电石法PVC市场价 | 4910.0 | 4920.0 | -10.0 | -0.2% | | | 华东乙烯法PVC市场价 | 5100.0 | 5100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | SH2509 | 2413.0 | 2474.0 | -61.0 | -2.5% | | | SH2601 | 2542.0 | 2576.0 | -34.0 | -1.3% | | | SH基差 | 87.0 | 88 ર | -1.5 | -1.7% | ...