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医药流通2024A&2025Q1业绩综述:账期持续承压,看好盈利修复
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-11 05:23
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical distribution sector is under pressure but is expected to see a recovery in profitability [3][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of new business models such as CSO and health device distribution, which are anticipated to support revenue growth [7] Summary by Sections Market Review - From January 1, 2025, to May 8, 2025, the pharmaceutical distribution index declined by 2.44%, underperforming the pharmaceutical and biotechnology index by 3.73 percentage points [4] - The market capitalization of pharmaceutical distribution in Q1 2025 was 1.5 billion, accounting for 0.05% of the total A-share fund holdings, showing a decrease from the previous quarter [4][20] Financial Analysis - Revenue growth for 2024 is projected at an average of 0.52%, a significant decline of 9.04 percentage points year-on-year. Major companies like China National Pharmaceutical and China Medicine are expected to experience negative growth [5][24] - In Q1 2025, the average revenue growth rate for key companies in pharmaceutical distribution was -0.11%, but this represents an improvement of 1.31 percentage points year-on-year [5][24] - The average net profit growth rate for key companies in Q1 2025 was 4.83%, an increase of 13.95 percentage points compared to the previous year [29][40] - The average gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 8.33%, down 0.32 percentage points year-on-year, continuing a downward trend influenced by centralized procurement and drug pricing policies [32][40] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the pharmaceutical distribution sector, particularly those with strong capabilities in hospital payment recovery and innovative distribution channels. Key recommendations include Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, Jiuzhoutong, Baiyang Pharmaceuticals, and Zhongyao Holdings, with a watch on China National Pharmaceutical, Guoyao Holdings, and Liuyao Group [7][55]