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东吴证券:国产HBM产业链迎突破窗口期 设备环节弹性显著
智通财经网· 2025-06-23 01:42
Group 1 - The current explosion in computing power demand, combined with external regulations on HBM bandwidth, is accelerating breakthroughs and supply of domestic HBM [1] - Domestic storage major clients have validated HBM3, achieving DDR5 particle manufacturing capability, with mass production expected in the second half of the year [1] - Key equipment manufacturers have started receiving orders for TCB, CMP, and other processes, indicating a strong certainty in the expansion of domestic HBM production [1] Group 2 - Key processes such as TCB, CMP, bonding, and testing machines are either domestically produced or easily obtainable, with mass production conditions met for particles [2] - The expected expansion volume for HBM this year is projected to reach 5,000 pieces of 8-layer wafers, which will generate significant order increments across various equipment segments [2] - The expansion is anticipated to bring in order increments of 160 million, 1 billion, 600 million, 400 million, and 700 million for TCB, CMP, bonding, electroplating, and testing machines respectively [2] Group 3 - The expansion of HBM production will also benefit upstream equipment, as it requires underlying DRAM particles [3] - The expected HBM expansion volume of 5,000 pieces of 8-layer wafers corresponds to an increase of 40,000 pieces of underlying DDR5, leading to approximately 35 billion in capital expenditure for equipment [3] - Market increments for etching, thin film deposition, cleaning, and CMP processes are projected to be 8.5 billion, 7 billion, 1.6 billion, and 1.1 billion respectively [3]