Core Insights - The storage industry is emerging from a downturn and entering a "super cycle" driven by AI demand, as indicated by the recent earnings reports from major storage companies [1] Group 1: Key Signals from Earnings Reports - Inventory levels have dropped below the "warning line," with SK Hynix's inventory turnover days decreasing from a peak of 233 days in Q1 2023 to just 127 days, indicating potential supply chain shortages [2] - Average Selling Prices (ASP) are experiencing significant recovery, with Samsung's DRAM ASP soaring by 40% quarter-over-quarter and SK Hynix's NAND prices increasing by 32% [2] - Major companies are aggressively increasing capital expenditures in response to surging demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), with SK Hynix's capital spending projected to rise from 7 trillion KRW in Q4 2024 to 12 trillion KRW by Q3 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Price Movements - HBM4 production is exceeding expectations, which will influence future market share in AI computing [3] - The industry outlook is extremely optimistic, with projections for a long-term "storage super cycle," as noted by Nanya Tech's president, who claims the current cycle is better than the 2017-2018 cloud server boom [3] - The Memory Indicator from Bank of America has risen to 124, indicating an upward cycle, compared to an average of 103 in the first half of 2025 [4] Group 3: Current Market Conditions - DRAM spot prices remain high, with 16Gb DDR5 prices at $38, a year-on-year increase of 709%, and 16Gb DDR4 prices reaching $78, up 2445% year-on-year [6] - Despite some OEMs indicating temporary assembly line halts due to rising storage costs, overall sales data from Taiwan shows significant month-over-month growth exceeding 20% and year-on-year doubling for several manufacturers [7] - SSD prices have surged, with a weekly increase of 40% and a monthly increase of 60%, reflecting market concerns about potential shortages in the second half of the year [9] Group 4: Insights from Semicon Korea - The recent Semicon Korea event showcased a booming industry, with equipment suppliers benefiting from record capital expenditures by major players like Samsung and SK Hynix [10] - HBM production is time-consuming, requiring extensive equipment to maintain high output levels, which may impact supply timelines [12] - The adoption of Hybrid Bonding technology may face delays, as manufacturers prefer existing methods for HBM production [12]

By Debby Wu, Takashi Mochizuki and Yoolim Lee   A growing procession of tech industry leaders including Elon Musk and Tim Cook are warning about a global crisis in the making: A shortage of memory chips is beginning to hammer profits, derail corporate plans and inflate price tags on everything from laptops and smartphones to automobiles and data centers — and the crunch is only going to get worse.   Since the start of 2026, Tesla Inc., Apple Inc. and a dozen other major corporations have signaled that th ...

2026 年 2 月中诚信国际发布的电子元器件行业展望报告指出，未来 12~18 个月行业展望为稳定，信用水平保持稳定、整体信用风险可控，AI 算力与汽车电 子将成为核心增长动力，同时行业仍面临关税政策不确定、原材料价格上涨的挑战。 2025 年国内 "以旧换新""购新补贴" 等政策有效拉动下游需求，对冲了国际贸易环境的不利影响，美国对华关税政策虽反复博弈，但后续阶段性缓和，国内 企业也通过全球化产能布局、转口贸易等方式缓冲冲击，且 2026 年国内产业政策将继续聚焦消费提振、技术创新等方向。同时，2026 年 4 月起光伏、电池 等领域出口退税调整，短期增加出口成本，长期将倒逼产业高端化升级。 经营层面，2025 年行业受消费电子温和复苏、汽车电子及 AI 快速发展带动，各细分领域重回增长，电子元件出口金额同比增 17.70%。PCB 行业在 AI 服务 器与汽车电子驱动下迈入高端周期，电子系统组装领域 AI 服务器成为新增长引擎，电子零部件行业集中度持续提升。需求端，AI 算力推动数据中心资本开 支大增，带动 HBM、高速光模块等高端元器件需求；新能源汽车渗透率超 50%，拉动 SiC 器件、车规级 MC ...

分析师指出，存储价格急升，已在全球股市掀起连锁冲击，且影响时间可能比市场预期更久， 电子产业下游企业面临的利润遭挤压的压力或许只是刚开始。 包括埃隆·马斯克和蒂姆·库克在内的越来越多的科技行业领袖警告说，一场全球危机正在酝酿 之中：内存芯片短缺开始重创利润，扰乱企业计划，并推高从笔记本电脑和智能手机到汽车和 数据中心等所有产品的价格——而且这种短缺只会愈演愈烈。 自2026年初以来，特斯拉、苹果以及其他十几家大型企业都表示，DRAM（动态随机存取存储 器）——几乎所有技术的基础组件——的短缺将制约产能。库克警告称，这将压缩iPhone的利 润率。美光科技称这一瓶颈"前所未有"。马斯克则直指问题的棘手之处，他宣布特斯拉将不得 不自建存储器制造厂。 "我们有两个选择：要么遇到芯片瓶颈，要么建一座晶圆厂，"他在一月底说道。 造成这种供应紧张的根本原因在于人工智能数据中心的建设。 一场席卷全球的存储风暴 最近，关于存储危机，已经被广泛讨论。 存储芯片是半导体家族的重要组成部分。它们由硅片制成，用于存储数据并将其传递给处理单元 ——即执行计算的"大脑"。 很少有哪个行业像全球内存行业一样，受到这股迅猛浪潮的影响如此之大 ...

Core Viewpoint - A global shortage of memory chips is emerging, significantly impacting profits, corporate strategies, and prices across various sectors, including consumer electronics and automotive industries. This situation is expected to worsen as demand from AI data centers escalates [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Impact - Major corporations like Tesla and Apple have indicated that the shortage of DRAM will limit production capabilities, with Apple warning of compressed iPhone margins [2][8]. - The demand for memory chips is being driven primarily by AI data centers, with companies like Alphabet and OpenAI consuming a large share of production to support their applications [4][17]. - The price of DRAM has surged dramatically, with one type increasing by 75% from December to January, leading to daily price adjustments by retailers [5][12]. Group 2: Corporate Responses - Companies are adapting to the crisis; for instance, Tesla is considering building its own memory fabrication plant to mitigate supply issues [2][3]. - Sony is contemplating delaying the launch of its next PlayStation console to 2028 or 2029 due to the memory shortage, which disrupts its strategic planning [9]. - Chinese smartphone manufacturers are reducing shipment targets, with Oppo cutting its forecast by up to 20% for 2026 [10]. Group 3: Future Projections - Analysts predict that memory chip prices will continue to rise, with Bernstein's Mark Li stating that prices are going "parabolic," benefiting manufacturers like Samsung and Micron while hurting the broader electronics sector [7][22]. - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is expected to increase by 70% year-over-year in 2026, further straining the supply of standard DRAM [19][21]. - The current supply-demand imbalance is projected to persist throughout the year, with significant implications for various industries, including automotive and telecommunications [22][23]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The rising costs of memory chips could lead to DRAM accounting for up to 30% of the bill of materials for low-end smartphones, tripling from 10% in early 2025 [25]. - Companies across the electronics sector are warning consumers to prepare for higher prices, particularly ahead of key midterm elections in the US, where inflation may become a critical issue [25][26].

证券日报网讯2月13日，澜起科技在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，DRAM内存模组(如RDIMM和 MRDIMM)属于服务器主内存，与HBM的应用场景不同，分别有相对独立的市场空间，二者都将受益于 AI产业的发展，并非竞争或替代关系。公司经营情况正常。 ...

01丨 商品牛市轮动框架下一个或是化工 资源品一直为市场核心关注主线，有色金属品种价格维持高位震荡态势，长江证券策略认为， 市场配置重心可逐步向资源品其他细分 品种切换，把握轮动布局机会。 从历史规律与当前基本面双重维度看，本轮资源品牛市的核心支撑逻辑未改，21世纪以来数轮典型资源品牛市均验证了一轮完整牛市 周期持续2 - 3年的特征，且牛市期间板块整体涨幅普遍超50%。 结合当前基本面，2 02 6年美联储仍有明确降息预期，全年预计降息2 - 3次，流动性宽松的核心支撑逻辑未发生根本转变。 从20 05 - 20 08年、2 00 9 - 20 11年、2020- 20 22年三轮典型资源品牛市的运行规律可清晰总结出，板块内部存在显著的轮动上行特征： 整体呈现贵金属→工业金属→能源→化工品→农产品的轮动上涨节奏。 分析师认为，AI带来的并非简单的周期反弹，而是指数级增长的新需求，存储已不再仅仅跟随宏观经济波动，而是成为了AI算力的决 定性瓶颈。 存储属于重资产行业，一旦营收覆盖固定成本，新增的涨价红利将大比例转化为净利润。这种高经营杠杆特性导致净利增 速将远超营收增速。 风险提示：以上内容仅为个人观点，供交 ...

美股方面，美国上周首领失业救济人数由23.2万人回落至22.7万人，略高于预期；持续申领失业救济金人数 186.2万， 高于预期的 185 万人。等待周五通胀数据公布前，科技股遭抛售。美光（MU US）CFO 强调今年 HBM 需求强劲，周四股价 先升后回落，收盘仅升 0.9%。收盘道琼斯指数下跌 669 点（1.3%），报 49,451 点；纳斯达克指数跌 469（2.0%），报 22,597 点；标普 500 指数跌 108 点，收报 6,832 点。金价和银价分别下跌 3%和 8%。投资者关注周五公布的通胀数据， 以判断联储局未来利率政策走向。 宏观动态： 乘联会公布 1 月全国乘用车零售同比-13.9%，其中新能有车零售量同比-20.0%。1 月数据受到市场因素影响，1 月新能源 购置税政策有所调整，部分消费者在去年 12 月已经提前享受政策红利，导致 1 月出现透支效应。 行业动态： 2026 年 2 月 13 星期五 ➢ 每日大市点评 2 月 12 日，周四港股低开低走，最后 27,000 点失而复得。恒生指数收盘跌 233 点（0.8%），收报 27,032 点；恒生科技 指数跌 91 点（1. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry, indicating a positive outlook for 2026 [5]. Core Insights - The electronic industry is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index in 2025, with a valuation slightly above historical averages. The first three quarters of 2025 show improved performance and profitability. The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in AI computing infrastructure and terminal innovation for 2026 [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance and Overview - The electronic industry achieved a 47.88% increase in 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 30.21 percentage points [15]. - The industry's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached CNY 29,756.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.46%, with a net profit of CNY 1,477.90 billion, up 37.79% [20][23]. 2. AI Computing Infrastructure - The demand for AI computing hardware is robust, particularly in the PCB and storage sectors. The PCB industry is expected to benefit from increased capital expenditure and demand for high-end products like HDI and multi-layer boards [3][43]. - The storage chip market is entering a new growth cycle driven by AI, with major players adjusting production to optimize supply and demand dynamics, leading to price increases [3][43]. 3. Terminal Innovation - AI-enabled smartphones and PCs are projected to see increased market penetration, with significant growth potential in AI mobile devices and AIPC [4][43]. - AI glasses are expected to contribute to market growth, with a steady increase in shipments and a fully covered supply chain in China [4][43]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the storage and PCB sectors that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI wave and capital expenditure increases. It also highlights the potential of leading manufacturers in AI mobile devices and AI glasses [8][43].

中金研究 大模型的演进史，本质上是一部与"遗忘"抗争的历史。 当我们惊叹于模型的推理能力时，往往忽视了一个重要短板： 在缺乏记忆留存的架构下，模型 每一次对历史信息的处理，本质上都是一次昂贵的"重复计算"。 这种以高昂算力对抗遗忘的粗放模式，正面临着显存墙与上下文窗口的物理极限。我 们认为，2026年及之后的AI Infra主战场将增加"模型记忆"这一极。 何为模型记忆？如何理解短期、中期、长期记忆三层记忆系统对应的软硬件需求？ 如何对应模型训练、推理、Agent场景理解记忆分层系统？我们将在本报告中予以解答。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 短期记忆构成大模 型单 次推理的"当前视野"。 作为高频读写、对延迟极度敏感的"热数据"，其核心矛盾在于KV Cache对显存容量与带宽的双重挤占。软 件端通过PagedAttention显存虚拟化与PD分离调度进行优化，并探索出无限注意力（Infini-attention）等前沿架构以支撑百万Tokens上下文窗口。这一逻辑 直接锚定了HBM与片上SRAM作为突破"显存墙"与"延迟墙"的重要硬件要素。 中 期记忆保障跨会话的情景连续性，是Agent的基 ...