近期，存储赛道热度席卷全球。 公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 在 《存储芯片"超级周期"，真的来了？》 一文中，笔者对存储市场周期进行了分析预判，"超 级周期"、"前所未有的新繁荣"等行业论述持续升温。 近日，三星电子、SK海力士、西部数据等全球存储芯片巨头相继发布最新季度财报，业绩全面 超过预期，赚得盆满钵满。 这一亮眼表现不仅标志着存储芯片企业从去年的行业低谷中强势复苏，或许进一步印证了市场关 于存储芯片进入新一轮"超级周期"的论调。 存储巨头财报解析： 营收利润双爆发，正式迈入上升周期 三星电子： 存储业务强势反弹，利润达近三年最高 2025 年 第 三 季 度 ， 三 星 电 子 交 出 超 预 期 成 绩 单 ： 营 收 达 86.1 万 亿 韩 元 ， 同 比 增 长 9% ， 环 比 增 长 15%；营业利润飙升至12.2万亿韩元，同比增长32.6%，环比激增159.6%，创下近三年来最高水平。 其中，存储业务成为绝对增长引擎。 在先进制程方面，2纳米GAA工艺正推进量产准备，计划2026年在美国泰勒工厂正式投产，尽管目前 试产良率约30%，但通过优化制程与扩大4纳米成熟节点产能 ...

存储芯片迎"超级周期"，人形机器人产业化进程加速 ——全球产业趋势跟踪周报（1110） 本周产业趋势主要集中在存储芯片与人形机器人两个方向。存储芯片方面，2025 年下半年以来，存储芯片行业正迈入一个被广泛称为"超级周期"的新阶段。 这次，随着 AI 对算力近乎无限的渴求，尤其是大模型、推理加速与高带宽需求 的爆发，内存的价值得以重新定义，行业逻辑得以重构，周期特征也正发生根 本性变化。人形机器人方面，特斯拉 11 月 7 日在股东大会公布 Optimus 擎天 柱机器人最新量产计划；11 月 5 日，小鹏发布女性机器人 IRON，全面展示其 在"物理 AI"领域的最新布局；乐聚智能"夸父"亮相全运会，AI 与机器人融 合已显现加速迹象，人形机器人产业化进程加速。 【主题与产业趋势】：存储芯片产业正迎来结构性繁荣期。HBM、HBF 等高带 宽存储技术的快速发展，加之产能优先向高端产品倾斜，使得供应商掌握定价 权，传统 DRAM 与 NAND 供给紧张，价格持续上行。行业巨头如 SK 海力士与 三星电子在 HBM 市场的领先地位进一步强化其盈利能力，同时带动上游设备、 材料、封装厂商及下游 AI 服务器、云计算 ...

Core Insights - The global AI wave is driving a significant shortage in storage chips, leading to an expansion trend among manufacturers, particularly in high-end storage products like HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) [1][2] - Domestic storage manufacturers are under increasing pressure to expand production, with semiconductor equipment becoming a focal point for market attention [1][3] - The semiconductor equipment sector has seen strong performance in the stock market, with companies like Tuojing Technology achieving over 120% annual growth [1][3][4] Industry Trends - The current upcycle in storage chips is primarily driven by the explosive demand from AI servers and multimodal applications, resulting in a shortage and price increases [2][3] - Prices for various storage models have surged, with increases ranging from 40% to 100% in October, and major players like SanDisk raising NAND flash contract prices by 50% due to heightened demand and supply constraints [2][3] - The shift of international manufacturers from low-end to high-end markets has exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance, particularly affecting consumer electronics like smartphones and PCs [2][3] Company Performance - The semiconductor equipment sector reported robust growth in Q3, with total revenue reaching 85.207 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.54% [4][5] - Companies like Tuojing Technology and Zhongwei Company have shown significant revenue and profit growth, with Tuojing's revenue increasing by 85.27% and net profit by 105.14% [4][5] - Inventory and contract liabilities are at historical highs, indicating strong order visibility and future performance potential for equipment manufacturers [5] Equipment Demand - The demand for high-end semiconductor equipment, particularly for etching and thin film deposition, is expected to rise significantly due to the expansion of storage chip production [6] - Domestic manufacturers are increasingly focusing on high-end semiconductor equipment, with companies like Beifang Huachuang achieving significant milestones in equipment delivery [6] - The introduction of new products in the etching and deposition categories by companies like Zhongwei is indicative of the growing market for advanced semiconductor manufacturing [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronics industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for AI is overheating, leading to a structural supply-demand imbalance in the global memory chip market, particularly for DRAM, driven by data center needs [3][4] - Major cloud service providers in the US have increased capital expenditures, indicating strong demand for high-end storage chips, which is causing manufacturers to shift capacity towards more profitable DDR5 and HBM products [3] - The global smartphone market revenue grew by 5% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching a historical high of $112 billion, with a 4% increase in shipment volume [4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The SW electronics index fell by 0.09% in the past week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.92 percentage points [3] - Among six sub-sectors, the performance varied, with other electronics II and components showing gains of 5.03% and 2.14%, respectively, while consumer electronics declined by 2.45% [3] Semiconductor Sector Insights - The report highlights that the supply chain for DRAM is facing severe disruptions, with major manufacturers like Samsung halting contract quotes for DDR5, leading to increased spot market prices [3] - The capital expenditure required to increase advanced DDR technology capacity is substantial, estimated at around $10 billion for a monthly increase of 10,000 wafers [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the electronics sector, anticipating a comprehensive recovery in the semiconductor industry in 2025 [4] - Specific stocks to watch include semiconductor design firms with low PE/PEG ratios, AIOT SoC chips, and key materials for semiconductors, focusing on domestic alternatives [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the semiconductor industry [1]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry continues to experience steady growth, with domestic memory manufacturers showing impressive performance in Q3 2025. The industry's revenue reached 174.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.07%, while net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 48.93% [3][6]. - Global semiconductor sales increased by 25.1% year-on-year in September 2025, marking the 23rd consecutive month of growth, with a month-on-month increase of 7.0%. The forecast for 2025 indicates an 11.2% year-on-year growth in global semiconductor sales [3][6]. - Major cloud service providers in North America, including Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, significantly increased their capital expenditures, totaling $96.4 billion in Q3 2025, a 67% year-on-year increase [7][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance in October 2025 - The semiconductor industry underperformed relative to the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 6.18% in October 2025, while the CSI 300 remained flat. Year-to-date, the semiconductor industry has risen by 45.44% [12][3]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 13.48% in October 2025, outperforming the Nasdaq 100, which increased by 4.77% [12][18]. 2. Q3 2025 Industry Summary - The semiconductor industry showed robust growth in Q3 2025, with a revenue of 1741.84 billion yuan and a net profit of 394.68 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.07% and 48.93%, respectively [3][6]. - Domestic memory manufacturers, including Jiangbolong and Demingli, turned profitable in Q3 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth expected in Q4 due to rising memory prices [3][6]. 3. Capital Expenditure and Price Trends - North American cloud service providers are increasing their capital expenditures, with a combined total of $96.4 billion in Q3 2025, indicating strong demand for AI computing hardware infrastructure [7][3]. - The prices of DRAM and NAND Flash memory saw significant increases in October 2025, with DRAM prices expected to rise by 18-23% in Q4 2025 [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - SanDisk has announced a significant price increase of up to 50% for NAND flash contracts in November, marking at least the third price hike this year [2] Industry Summary - Since September, there has been a strong expectation and continuity of price increases across mainstream storage products, including HBM, DRAM, NAND flash, SSDs, and mechanical hard drives, all facing shortages and price hikes [2] - Multiple storage manufacturers have suspended DDR5 pricing, leading to a 25% surge in DDR5 spot prices within just one week [2] - As of November 7, 10 stocks in the A-share storage chip sector have doubled in price this year, with Demingli up nearly 330%, Dongxin shares and Jiangbolong over 200%, and seven other stocks rising over 100% [2] - Market consensus anticipates that the overall price increases in storage will persist at least until mid-2026, with prices expected to remain high throughout 2026 [2] - The ongoing capital expenditure investments in AI are projected to drive further unexpected price increases in the storage market [2]

近期，芯片巨头英伟达正式向台积电追加晶圆订单，以满足市场对 GPU 的激增需求。 英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋明确表示，最新推出的 Blackwell GPU 需求异常强劲， 此次追加订单的举动，不仅是对市场需求的积极响应，更直接驳斥了当 下盛行的 "AI 泡沫" 担忧，向行业传递出加速提升 AI 芯片产量的明确信号。 在 "人工智能泡沫论" 甚嚣尘上的当下，证券行业曾公开提出担忧，认为人工智能技术的价值与市场需求被过度高估。 上周（11 月 3 日至 7 日），纳斯达克指数更是出现 3% 的跌幅，创下自 4 月份宣布互惠关税以来的最大跌幅，这一市场波动似乎为 "泡沫论" 提供了所谓 的 "佐证"。 但科技企业用实际行动打破了这种质疑 —— 它们非但没有放缓脚步，反而持续加大对人工智能领域的生产投入与战略投资，用实打实的布局展现出对 AI 产业前景的坚定乐观。 英伟达的产能规划便是最有力的证明。 据悉， 此前英伟达每年为数据中心生产的 GPU 数量已达 400 万至 500 万块，而此次向台积电追加的晶圆订单，对应的 GPU 需求量预计将远高于这一规 模。 与此同时，用于英伟达 AI 芯片的 HBM（高带宽内存）产 ...

HBM 新材料的国产替代进程 20251107 摘要 海力士在 HBM 市场占据领先地位，市场份额约 50%，但预计到 2026 年中期，三星和美光将缩小差距。美光虽起步晚，但凭借 HBM3E 和 HBM4 的技术投入，有望超越竞争对手，并可能因地缘政治因素获得更 多市场支持。 三星凭借其晶圆代工能力和与 GPU 制造商的合作关系，在 HBM 市场占 据优势，并有望通过提供一站式解决方案进一步提升市场份额。客户寻 求台积电之外的代工选择是其机会。 HBM 产品与 AI 发展密切相关，预计 2025 年 GPU 板卡需求量约为 1,000 万张，2026 年将增长至 1,700-1,800 万张。各大厂商扩充产能 以应对需求增长，可能导致价格趋于稳定。 海力士率先通过英伟达 HM4 认证，三星预计 2025 年底前通过，美光因 良率问题预计 2026 年初完成。各厂商采用不同工艺，各有优劣，并不 断优化以提高性能指标。 HBM 技术发展趋势是向 Hybrid bonding 演进，以满足更高的带宽和存 储密度要求。国内企业如长兴已量产 HBM 2E，并计划扩大产能，同时 调整策略专注于前端晶圆制造。 Q&A H ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Semiconductor Industry Revenue Growth - Overall semiconductor revenues increased by 28% year-over-year (YoY) in September, up from 22% YoY in August [2][3] - Logic semiconductors grew by 21% YoY, slightly down from 23% YoY in August, while memory semiconductors surged by 44% YoY, compared to 18% YoY in August [2] Demand Drivers - The growth in semiconductor revenues is primarily driven by sustained demand for data centers and AI spending, particularly in leading-edge logic semiconductors and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) [2] - Memory revenue saw a significant rally due to tight DRAM supply and improved NAND supply driven by eSSD restocking demand [2] Unit Growth - Overall semiconductor units increased by 9% YoY, down from 13% YoY in August [3] - Memory units rose by 19% YoY, driven by growth in HBM shipments and strong demand for server DRAM [3] - Logic semiconductor units increased by 8% YoY, reflecting slower growth due to destocking and AI server production transitions [3] Average Selling Prices (ASPs) - Semiconductor ASPs rose by 17% YoY in September, up from 8% YoY in August [4] - Memory ASPs surged by 22% YoY, significantly higher than the 3% YoY increase in August, driven by tight supply-demand dynamics and increased demand from major suppliers [4] - Logic semiconductor ASPs increased by 12% YoY, supported by resilient pricing for advanced nodes [4] Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to maintain robust growth, particularly in AI technology supply chains, with no signs of a bubble [5] - The growth in AI technology is anticipated to continue, supported by increased capital expenditures from major cloud service providers (CSPs) [3][5] Company Recommendations - Preferred picks among Asian semiconductor companies include TSMC, SK Hynix, ASE, Advantest, and Tokyo Electron, while caution is advised on companies like Novatek, SMIC, and UMC due to their exposure to consumer electronics [8] Additional Insights - The recovery in the automotive and industrial sectors is expected to be slow due to macroeconomic uncertainties [8] - The pricing uptick may benefit memory, leading-edge foundry, and OSATs, but Tier-2 foundries may face margin pressures [8]

海外存储大厂业绩超预期，AI 驱动存储需求高增 20251109 摘要 闪迪在其 2026 财年第一季度实现 23 亿美元营收，毛利率约为 30%。其下个 季度展望乐观，预计营收 25.5 亿至 26.5 亿美元，毛利率提升至 41%至 存储行业目前处于严重供不应求状态，预计至少持续到 2026 年年中甚 至全年，各大厂商新增扩产谨慎，通过产品结构调整增加高容量产品来 满足需求。 存储行业景气度预计将持续提升，各大原厂业绩也会环比逐季增长，但 需关注未来新增产能释放可能带来的潜在影响。 43%。美光在其自然年的 6 月至 8 月期间实现了接近 80%的 DRAM 收入和 20%的 NAND 收入，下个季度业绩预期乐观，将于 12 月中旬发布。西部数据 在其一季度财报中实现 28 亿美元营收，毛利率达 44%，成本端持续优化，其 云端业务占比达 90%。希杰公司则实现 26 亿美元营收，毛利率 40%，数据中 心收入同比增长超过 30%。 国内存储行业有哪些值得关注的公司？ AI 驱动的需求激增是存储行业增长的主要动力，尤其是在训练和推理过 程中对算力和存储的需求显著增加，企业级 SFC、DRAM 中的 D2M ...