宏观日报 | 2025-06-26 关注运输业产业集群建设 中观事件总览 生产行业：上海将建设世界级船舶与海工装备产业集群。 1）《上海市海洋产业发展规划（2025-2035）（征求意见 稿）》公开征求意见。其中提到，建设世界级船舶与海工装备产业集群。到2030年，船舶与海工装备产业增加值超 450亿元，大型LNG运输船本土化率提升到85%以上，基本建成原创技术策源和绿色智能引领的世界级船舶与海洋 工程装备产业体系。2）在存储晶圆原厂陆续宣布减产计划背景下，近期存储市场加速回暖，以DDR4为代表的内 存条领涨市场，在传统的IC淡季急速升温。仅间隔两周，DDR4颗粒价格翻倍，甚至部分型号价格已经追平新一代 DDR5。 服务行业：退休金无需缴纳个人所得税。 1）六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》。其中 提出，强化结构性货币政策工具激励。设立服务消费与养老再贷款，额度5000亿元，对21家全国性金融机构以及5 家属于系统重要性金融机构的城市商业银行发放的服务消费重点领域贷款，可按照贷款本金的100%申请再贷款。2） 6月24日，北京市税务局12366纳税缴费服务热线回应纳税人咨询，表示退休金无需 ...

Group 1 - The current explosion in computing power demand, combined with external regulations on HBM bandwidth, is accelerating breakthroughs and supply of domestic HBM [1] - Domestic storage major clients have validated HBM3, achieving DDR5 particle manufacturing capability, with mass production expected in the second half of the year [1] - Key equipment manufacturers have started receiving orders for TCB, CMP, and other processes, indicating a strong certainty in the expansion of domestic HBM production [1] Group 2 - Key processes such as TCB, CMP, bonding, and testing machines are either domestically produced or easily obtainable, with mass production conditions met for particles [2] - The expected expansion volume for HBM this year is projected to reach 5,000 pieces of 8-layer wafers, which will generate significant order increments across various equipment segments [2] - The expansion is anticipated to bring in order increments of 160 million, 1 billion, 600 million, 400 million, and 700 million for TCB, CMP, bonding, electroplating, and testing machines respectively [2] Group 3 - The expansion of HBM production will also benefit upstream equipment, as it requires underlying DRAM particles [3] - The expected HBM expansion volume of 5,000 pieces of 8-layer wafers corresponds to an increase of 40,000 pieces of underlying DDR5, leading to approximately 35 billion in capital expenditure for equipment [3] - Market increments for etching, thin film deposition, cleaning, and CMP processes are projected to be 8.5 billion, 7 billion, 1.6 billion, and 1.1 billion respectively [3]