1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Treasury bond futures showed an overall volatile pattern. The long - end was mainly dragged down by fund redemption pressure and the siphon effect of the stock market, while the short - end was relatively resilient supported by a stable capital market. This week, the market is expected to fluctuate and recover. Policy expectations and loose capital will lead to sentiment repair. The elasticity of 30 - year ultra - long - end Treasury bond futures may significantly increase, and the 10 - year contract is expected to stabilize in a range [2][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Price - The main contract of the five - year Treasury bond (TF2512) opened lower and moved higher on September 8 (Monday), closing with a positive line on the daily K - line. It then closed with negative lines for two consecutive trading days, a long positive line on Thursday, and continued the upward trend on Friday. This week, the trading volume continued to increase, and the daily K - line MACD indicator continued to run with a golden cross below the zero axis [3] 3.1.2 Variety Market - Among the 12 Treasury bond futures contracts, the two - year Treasury bond contracts (TS2509, TS2512, TS2603) had drops of 0.002 yuan, 0.014 yuan, and 0.056 yuan respectively. The 30 - year Treasury bond contracts (TL2509, TL2512, TL2603) had drops of 1.26 yuan, 1.08 yuan, and 1.07 yuan respectively, showing an overall downward market pattern [6] 3.2 Spot Market - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations this week: On September 8, it conducted 191.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 8.8 billion yuan after offsetting the due 182.7 billion yuan. On September 12, it conducted 230 billion yuan of reverse repurchases (the specific due amount was not clearly mentioned). The total net injection for the week was 196.1 billion yuan after conducting 1264.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and offsetting the due 1068.4 billion yuan [8][9] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Important Events - On September 12, 2025, the Ministry of Finance announced the second re - issuance of the 2025 ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds, with an issuance scale of 82 billion yuan, a term of 30 years, and a fixed coupon rate. The re - issuance will use a competitive bidding method, with the bidding time from 10:35 to 11:35 on September 19, and no additional bids from Class A members [10] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - From the trend of the five - year Treasury bond (TF2512) contract this week, the market closed with positive lines on three trading days and negative lines on two trading days, indicating that market investors have some differences in profit - taking from Treasury bond futures trading at this position. The continuous rise of the stock market index has attracted more investors, forming a seesaw effect with Treasury bond trading. The issuance of 82 billion yuan of 30 - year Treasury bonds on September 19 may expand the supply, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the market will break the current trend and form a new directional trend [11] 3.4 Market Outlook - This week, the market is expected to fluctuate and recover. Policy expectations such as the central bank's bond - buying news and loose capital will lead to sentiment repair. The elasticity of 30 - year ultra - long - end Treasury bond futures may significantly increase, and the 10 - year contract is expected to stabilize in a range [14]