Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates as expected, but China is unlikely to follow suit in the short term. Expectations for the central bank to restart bond purchases have also cooled. Due to tax period disturbances, treasury bond futures adjusted across the board [8]. - Yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose across the board, with medium - and long - term increases mostly around 2bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 reported 1.7825%, up 1.95bp [9]. - Affected by the tax period, the central bank returned to net investment in the open market, and the money market tightened further. There were 292 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 487 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 195 billion yuan. Short - term money rates rose across the board [10]. - The national economic activities in August showed weakening, with consumption slowing down and the decline in the real estate market expanding again. The infrastructure investment on the policy side also slowed down significantly, dragging down the overall investment. However, the overall data showed marginal weakening rather than a stall. It is not necessary for China's monetary policy to implement easing following the Fed in September. Policy may focus more on fiscal and credit easing and real estate policies, which will bring disturbances to the bond market. The suppression of the bond market by the stock market may ease, but the bond market still lacks a breakthrough [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: Treasury bond futures adjusted across the board due to the Fed's rate cut, the cooling of expectations for the central bank to buy bonds, and tax period disturbances [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: Yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose, with the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 yield up 1.95bp to 1.7825% [9]. - **Money Market**: The central bank conducted net investment in the open market, and short - term money rates rose. The overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits rose about 2.6bp to 1.5127%, and the 7 - day rate rose 1.62bp to 1.5566%. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fell to 1.59% [10]. - **Conclusion**: The national economic data in August showed weakening, but it is not necessary for China to follow the Fed's easing in September. Policy may focus on fiscal and credit easing and real estate. The bond market suppression may ease, but it still lacks a breakthrough. The short - end may be more resilient than the long - end [11][12]. 2. Industry News - **Fed Rate Cut**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut this year. FOMC statement pointed out employment risks, economic slowdown, and rising inflation. The dot - plot showed different expectations for further rate cuts. The probability of a rate cut in October is over 90% [13]. - **Fiscal Revenue**: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.82 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. Tax revenue was 12.11 trillion yuan, with the cumulative growth rate turning positive for the first time this year [14]. - **HKMA Rate Cut**: The Hong Kong Monetary Authority cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50% [15]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Data on multiple treasury bond futures contracts including TL, T, TF, and TS were provided, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and position changes [6]. - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase weighted rates, and other money market indicators was mentioned, but specific data was mainly in the form of figures [31][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves was provided, mainly in the form of figures [36].