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美银:看涨韩元,市场尚未消化"国内市场回归账户"计划的影响
Ge Long Hui· 2026-01-22 05:23
Core Viewpoint - The market has not fully absorbed the impact of South Korea's "Reshoring Investment Account" plan, which aims to provide tax incentives for capital repatriation and boost the domestic stock market, thereby reversing the outflow of retail investor funds and strengthening the Korean won [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Retail investor funds flowing into the US stock market are a significant factor contributing to the weakening of the Korean won [1] - The South Korean government is increasing its focus on currency stability due to the ongoing outflow of retail funds [1] Group 2: Currency Outlook - The current shape of the implied volatility curve for the USD/KRW exchange rate indicates that the market is underestimating the impact of the Reshoring Investment Account plan [1] - The report maintains a bullish stance on the Korean won, suggesting that once the Reshoring Investment Account plan is approved, the USD/KRW spot exchange rate will face downward risks [1] Group 3: Legislative Timeline - The Reshoring Investment Account plan is expected to receive legislative approval by mid-February and is scheduled to take effect in March [1]