Group 1 - The recent weakening of the US dollar has led to a collective rebound of Asian currencies, with the South Korean won showing a notable increase of nearly 5% against the dollar in May [1] - Analysts attribute the strengthening of the won to discussions between the US and South Korea regarding exchange rates and the Bank of Korea's "compromise" on the won's appreciation [1] - The demand for hedging against the dollar's decline has surged, with the nominal trading amount of bearish options on the dollar-won pair exceeding $60 million last week, indicating a strong market sentiment [1][2] Group 2 - According to models from Goldman Sachs and Nomura, both the won and the South Korean stock market are undervalued, with the won estimated to be undervalued by about 12% [2] - The current level of foreign investment in the South Korean stock market is at a multi-year low, suggesting that attractive valuation levels may draw foreign capital back into the market, benefiting the won [2] - Barclays reports that the recent strength of the won is primarily driven by hedge funds utilizing digital options and bearish spreads to position for won appreciation [2] Group 3 - The National Pension Service (NPS) of South Korea is accelerating its currency hedging, with overseas investment assets totaling $497 billion as of February 2025 [3] - If the NPS strategically increases the hedging ratio of its dollar assets, it could result in an average monthly forward sell of $4 billion, exerting significant upward pressure on the won [3] - The South Korean asset management industry, projected to reach $13 trillion by the end of 2024, holds approximately $153 billion in overseas assets, which may lead to increased hedging activities if the expectation of won appreciation continues [3]

全球对冲基金们正在期权市场大举押注，认为长期被外汇市场低估的韩元将完美复刻新台币近期兑美元 的创纪录般强劲升值趋势。在外汇交易市场，美元兑韩元看跌期权的需求激增，看跌期权与看涨期权的 比例为3:2，表明市场对美元/韩元这一货币走势对存在显著的看跌押注，意味着看涨韩元，看跌美元。 通常来说，韩元被对冲基金们视为衡量美国与亚洲贸易动态更广泛变化的指标，也是对冲美元走弱的关 键对冲工具，越来越多的外汇策略师猜测称，韩国和美国在货币谈判中讨论了韩元未来的潜在走向。对 于韩元汇率来说，全球贸易局势好转有望带动韩元持续升温，同时特朗普政府主导的面向全球关税政策 与移民限制等一系列MAGA政策举措可能令"美国例外论"土崩瓦解，最终促使美元跌入长期熊市。 DTCC统计数据显示，周三名义规模超6,000万美元的美元兑韩元看跌期权需求超过看涨期权，看跌与看 涨期权的实际比例甚至高达3:2，凸显市场对该货币对的看跌押注，意味着市场押注韩元有望大幅升 值。衡量未来一个月美元兑韩元下行对冲成本相对汇率上行成本的"风险逆转指标"，上周接近21年来的 最高位。 "自新台币数周前大幅走强以来，美元兑韩元数字式期权与看跌价差早已非常活跃，"渣 ...