国内红枣供需情况

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红枣期货与期权2025年8月报告-20250804
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 06:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the price trends of red date futures and spot in July 2025, domestic supply - demand situation, and the impact of weather on production, and also offers a technical analysis and outlook for red date futures prices [6][29][48]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Red Date Futures and Spot Price Trends - In July 2025, red date futures prices rose first and then fell, with the open - interest at a high level since listing. The spot prices opened high and moved low, with an overall low - level oscillatory rebound. At the end of July, the premium of red date futures contracts (2509 and 2601) over the spot (standard Cangzhou special - grade) widened [6][29][35]. - The red date futures and apple futures showed a weak correlation. The monthly price changes of red date 01 contracts and spot prices over the years were presented in the form of charts [39][42][47]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - Demand Situation - In the 2024 production season, Xinjiang's grey jujube output was 700,000 tons, an increase of 230,800 tons or 67.10% compared to the 2023 production season. It is predicted that Xinjiang's red date output in 2025 may reach around 500,000 tons [50]. - The report also showed the production data of different regions in 2024 and the inventory situation of red date spot from 2019/20 to 2024/25E [49][54]. 3.3 Pay Attention to the Weather in Producing Areas in August - The growth stages of red dates include the germination period (April), early - flowering period (May), full - flowering period (May - June), young - fruit period (May - June), rapid fruit - growth period (July - August), maturity period (September - October), leaf - falling period (November), and dormancy period (November - March of the next year) [58]. - Abnormal weather such as late spring cold, summer high - temperature and drought, strong winds, continuous rainstorms, and physiological diseases (such as fruit cracking) can affect red date production and quality. In August, attention should be paid to the occurrence of "dry - hot wind" and rainstorms in the producing areas [60][61][68]. 3.4 Technical Analysis and Future Outlook of Red Date Futures Prices - A technical analysis and future outlook of red date futures prices (rebounding from the historical bottom range) were provided, but specific content was not detailed in the given text [70].