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中国重汽(000951):2024年报点评:4Q24业绩超预期,25年有望持续受益政策
Huachuang Securities· 2025-03-29 09:34
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 25.6 CNY [2][8]. Core Views - The company's 4Q24 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 44.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.48 billion CNY, up 37% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from policy support in 2025, particularly from the "National IV" vehicle replacement policy, which is anticipated to drive overall demand in the heavy truck industry [8]. - The company has shown resilience in its operations, with a stable market share in the heavy truck sector, maintaining around 14% over the past four years [8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024 Revenue: 44.9 billion CNY, 2025E: 52.6 billion CNY, 2026E: 57.9 billion CNY, 2027E: 64.2 billion CNY [4]. - Net Profit: 2024: 1.48 billion CNY, 2025E: 1.77 billion CNY, 2026E: 1.95 billion CNY, 2027E: 2.25 billion CNY [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 1.26 CNY, 2025E: 1.51 CNY, 2026E: 1.66 CNY, 2027E: 1.91 CNY [4]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio: 2025E: 14, 2026E: 12, 2027E: 11 [4]. - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio: 2025E: 1.5, 2026E: 1.4, 2027E: 1.3 [4]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has a comprehensive product matrix covering all types of heavy trucks, with a leading position in the commercial vehicle brand category [8]. - The company benefits from unique engine partnerships, allowing it to meet diverse customer needs with advanced engine options [8]. - Internal reforms initiated in 2019 have improved market performance, reporting structure, and management efficiency [8].