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摩托车行业点评:大排量出海加速,禁摩放松有望催化内需
Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the motorcycle industry, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3][11]. Core Insights - The motorcycle industry is experiencing accelerated growth in large-displacement motorcycle exports, with a significant increase in sales both domestically and internationally. The domestic market is expected to benefit from the relaxation of motorcycle bans in various regions [5][3]. - In June 2025, the overall sales of two-wheeled fuel motorcycles reached 1.495 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%. For the first half of 2025, cumulative sales reached 8.338 million units, up 15.2% year-on-year. Notably, large-displacement motorcycles saw a June sales figure of 103,000 units, up 14.3%, and a cumulative total of 502,000 units for the first half, marking a 41.2% increase year-on-year [5][3]. - The report highlights the competitive advantage of domestic motorcycle brands, which have improved product quality and price-performance ratios, allowing them to capture market share from foreign brands. In June 2025, large-displacement motorcycle exports reached 57,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 59.9%, with a cumulative total of 265,000 units for the first half, up 70.1% year-on-year [5][3]. Summary by Sections Export Market - The export of large-displacement motorcycles is gaining momentum, with domestic brands enhancing their competitiveness. In June 2025, the export volume of two-wheeled fuel motorcycles was 1.115 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, and for the first half, it reached 6.12 million units, up 26.0% year-on-year [5][3]. - Specific companies like Chuanfeng Power and Longxin General are showing strong export growth, with Chuanfeng's June export volume at 11,000 units, up 36.3%, and Longxin's at 8,000 units, up 98.8% [5][3]. Domestic Market - The domestic market is seeing a decline in sales due to increased competition and the impact of relaxed motorcycle bans. In June 2025, domestic sales of two-wheeled fuel motorcycles were 380,000 units, down 12.8% year-on-year, while large-displacement motorcycle sales were 46,000 units, down 15.6% [5][3]. - The report notes that the relaxation of motorcycle bans in various regions is expected to stimulate future demand, with several cities having lifted restrictions since late 2024 [5][3]. Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the industry, indicating projected net profits and growth rates. For instance, Qianjiang Motorcycle is projected to have a net profit of 828 million yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 13%, while Chuanfeng Power is expected to reach 1.808 billion yuan with a CAGR of 22% [6][3].