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房地产行业研究:新房项目去化率有所提升,居民中长贷弱修复
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-14 10:43
Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the real estate sector, recommending to buy on dips due to low valuations and potential policy benefits [6]. Core Views - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in first-tier cities, with recent policy changes aimed at stimulating demand [6]. - The average opening sales rate for new housing projects in 30 key cities reached 42% in August, indicating a steady market recovery [12]. - The overall transaction volume for new homes in 47 cities decreased by 14% week-on-week but showed a year-on-year decline of only 4%, suggesting a stabilization trend [33]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share real estate sector increased by 6% this week, ranking second among all sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector rose by 5.7%, ranking third [2]. - The property service and management index in Hong Kong saw a 7.5% increase, outperforming the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the CSI 300 Index by 4.1% and 6.1%, respectively [22]. Land Market - The average premium rate for land transactions in 300 cities was 4%, with a total land area sold of 621 million square meters, reflecting a 35% decrease week-on-week and a 53% decrease year-on-year [27]. - Year-to-date, the total land area sold in 300 cities is 26,366 million square meters, down 8.4% year-on-year [27]. New Home Sales - In the week of September 6-12, 2025, new home sales in 47 cities totaled 287 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 4% [33]. - First-tier cities experienced a week-on-week decrease of 11% in new home sales, while second-tier cities saw a 26% increase year-on-year [33]. Second-Hand Home Sales - Second-hand home transactions in 22 cities totaled 238 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 14% and a year-on-year increase of 17% [42]. - First-tier cities reported a 3% increase week-on-week and a 17% increase year-on-year in second-hand home sales [42]. Financing Trends - In August, the social financing scale increased by 2.57 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.46 trillion yuan [14]. - The new residential medium- and long-term loans increased by 200 billion yuan in August, but the year-on-year figure decreased by 1,000 billion yuan, indicating a weak recovery in the real estate sector [14].