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宏观动态跟踪报告:最长春节假期的消费图景
Ping An Securities· 2026-02-26 02:05
Travel Trends - Daily average cross-regional personnel flow reached 260 million, a 6.1% increase compared to last year, and a 28.7% increase compared to 2019[4] - During the 9-day Spring Festival holiday, the total cross-regional personnel flow exceeded 2.8 billion, with a daily average of 311 million, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year growth[4] - The Baidu migration index increased by 33.3% during the Spring Festival holiday compared to the previous year, indicating a strong travel trend[11] Consumer Spending - Domestic tourism revenue reached 803.48 billion CNY, a 5.5% increase year-on-year, with 596 million domestic trips taken, marking a 5.7% increase[15] - Key retail and catering enterprises saw sales increase by 5.2% compared to last year, surpassing the 4.1% growth during the 2025 Spring Festival[23] - Daily average sales in consumption-related industries grew by 13.7% compared to last year, significantly higher than the 4.5% growth during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival[26] Real Estate Sales - New home sales in 30 major cities averaged 12,000 square meters per day during the Spring Festival, a 15.9% increase compared to last year[34] - Sales in first-tier cities doubled compared to the same period last year, indicating a stronger recovery in the real estate market[34] Risks - Potential risks include insufficient implementation of growth policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and possible biases in high-frequency data extrapolation[36]