Core Insights - The issuance scale of local government bonds decreased in September 2025, with a total issuance of approximately 851.9 billion yuan, including about 221.98 billion yuan in general bonds and approximately 629.93 billion yuan in special bonds [1][2] Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - In September, the issuance of new special bonds was about 413 billion yuan, marking the lowest for the third quarter of this year; the issuance of new general bonds also declined to approximately 50.97 billion yuan, a nearly 40% decrease from August [2] - The total issuance of local government bonds in September was 387.85 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month decrease since the beginning of the third quarter [2] - The average issuance term for local government bonds in September was 15.17 years, with special bond terms extending to 28 years, the highest for the year [2] Group 2: Bond Yield Spreads - The average issuance spread for local government bonds widened to 22.28 basis points in September, the highest since 2024; the 15-year bond spread was the highest but narrowed to 27.64 basis points [3] - The spreads for 5-year and 7-year bonds also widened significantly, indicating increased market concern over local government debt risks [3] Group 3: Future Issuance Plans - The planned issuance scale for local government bonds in the fourth quarter exceeds 870 billion yuan, with a significant portion allocated to special bonds [4] - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement measures to address hidden debt and has indicated that part of the 2026 debt limit will be allocated early [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that local government bonds still hold investment value in the fourth quarter, particularly in a context of narrowing spreads, with short-term bonds being noteworthy due to a loose funding environment [5] - The central bank is expected to provide liquidity support through reverse repos or reserve requirement ratio cuts, given the large amount of mid-term funding maturing in the fourth quarter [5]