证券研究报告 | 2025年08月28日 地方债净融资第 34 周（8/18-8/24）2088 亿，第 35 周（8/25-8/31）2435 亿。截至第 34 周（8/18-8/24）累计 5.5 万亿，超出去年同期 3 万亿。 新增一般债第 34 周（8/18-8/24）95 亿，第 35 周（8/25-8/31）353 亿。 截至第 34 周（8/18-8/24）累计 5855 亿，进度 73.2%。 新增专项债第 34 周（8/18-8/24）2393 亿，第 35 周（8/25-8/31）1880 亿。截至第 34 周（8/18-8/24）累计 3.1 万亿，进度 69.9%。特殊新增 专项债已发行 9680 亿。土地储备专项债已发行 3031 亿。根据企业预警 通统计，截至 8 月 24 日公示的土地储备项目覆盖 4949 块宗地，总资金 规模达 5476 亿。 特殊再融资债第 34 周（8/18-8/24）245 亿，第 35 周（8/25-8/31）291 亿。截至第 34 周（8/18-8/24）累计 1.9 万亿，发行进度 95%。 城投债第 34 周（8/18-8/24）净融资-6 亿 ...

流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题 关注短端和部分地方债新券机会 2025 年 08 月 26 日 ➢ 货币政策与流动性观点 8 月 15 日，央行发布了《2025 年二季度货币政策执行报告》，总体来看，"适度 宽松"的货币政策总基调没有改变，并且延续了 7 月政治局会议要求的"落实落 细"，说明当前货币政策尚且没有来到可以转向收紧的地步但也缺乏进一步总量 宽松的动力，在央行各目标没有出现明显压力的情况下，短期内货币政策的关键 是抓好落实，密切跟踪已经推出的政策的传导情况和实际效果，充分释放存量政 策效用，保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，更多通过结构性货币政策 工具加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。 8 月 18 日-8 月 22 日税期资金面情况超预期，我们认为本次资金面收敛可能是 由于央行前期逆回购投放较为克制叠加部分资金存款搬家流向股市导致出现资 金缺口，缴款结束后资金利率也没有修复至前期水平，资金面收敛情况超预期带 动一致较为稳定的短端利率也出现回调。本周跨月市场有所担忧，需要注意到资 金面收敛后央行立刻开启了连续大额逆回购净投放，目前7DOMO余额为20770 亿元再度明显超出季节性 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 本轮赎回压力或止于基金端 固定收益市场周观察 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗漏 报告发布日期 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 徐沛翔 | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | 补跌后骑乘空间增大，继续挖掘中短端城 投：信用债市场周观察 2025-08-25 交易热度新高，估值还未见顶：可转债市 场周观察 2025-08-19 24Q4 债市的"反向镜像"：固定收益市场 周观察 2025-08-18 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券点评报告 2025 年 08 月 25 日 哪些期限地方债利差超过 20bp ——地方债周报 一、一级市场情况 【净融资】本周地方债共发行 3692 亿元，净融资增加。本周地方债发行量为 3692 亿元，偿还量为 1604 亿元，净融资为 2088 亿元。发行债券中，新增一 般债 95 亿元，新增专项债 2393 亿元，再融资一般债 469 亿元，再融资专项债 735 亿元。 【发行期限】本周 30Y 地方债发行占比最高（29%），10Y 及以上发行占比为 84%，与上周相同。7Y、10Y、15Y、20Y 和 30Y 地方债发行占比分别为 8%、 26%、11%、18%和 29%，其中 30Y 地方债发行占比上升较多，环比上升约 18 个百分点；10Y 地方债发行占比下降较多，环比下降均约 39 个百分点。 【发行利差】本周地方债加权平均发行利差为 23.3bp，较上周有所走阔。其中 15Y 地方债加权平均发行利差最高，达 33.0bp。本周 3Y、7Y、10Y 地方债加 权平均发行利差收窄，其余期限地方债加权平均发行利差均有所走阔。本周山 东、河北、湖南和吉林地方债加权平均发行利差较高 ...

1. 公开市场操作 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 随着 央行 公开市场的连续资金注入，银行间市场资金面呈现常态宽松。存款类机构隔夜和七天回购加权利率均回落，均下行 5 个 bp 左右， D R001 目前 在 1.41% 附近， D R007 在 1.46% 附近。匿名点击（ X-repo ）系统上，隔夜报价也集中在 1.4% 附近，供给数百亿。 Wind 数据显示， 8 月 25 日 -29 日当周央行公开市场将有 20770 亿元逆回购到期，还将有 3000 亿元 MLF 到期、 5000 亿元 6 个月期买断式逆回购到 期、 4000 亿元 3 个月期买断式逆回购到期。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 4.31% 。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.67% 附近，较上日基本持平。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投债（AAA ...

来源：郁言债市 ►传统框架失效，"看股做债"走向极致 7月中旬以来或是相对煎熬的阶段。一方面，债市需要承受长久期收益率大幅上行带来的资本利得亏损，另一方面，投资者还面临着传统利率定价框架的 全面失效。在理论上，债市定价的三要素，资金面、基本面、政策面，均支持利率下行。 市场进入了一个由风险偏好单变量决断的定价状态，这也使得"看股做债"走向极致。这种状态形成的原因，或主要与股市非常态的风险收益率比相关，4 月以来股市的极致行情使得上证指数、万得全A的滚动3M卡玛比率自7月后长期维持在4.0以上水平，这是去年"924"行情也无法达到的状态。这种几乎只 涨不跌的风险偏好，对债市形成极大压力。 ►8月下旬，股市发展的两个逻辑 一是快涨逻辑，在"九三共识"的支撑下，各大股指，尤其是大盘型股指，或受到资金的托举，继续维持只涨不跌的趋势，同时由于本轮股票牛市不同 于"924"行情，前期散户资金进场节奏或更为温和，未来一周随着股市赚钱效应得到强化，不排除居民资金集中进场，加快股市上涨速度的可能性，债市 或仍面临压力。 二是震荡逻辑，随着9月3日阅兵时点将近，部分投资者或针对"九三共识"做逆向投资，提前止盈退场，一旦股市开始出 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 新增债披露发行 2233 亿 ——政府债周报（8/24） 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 8 月 25 日-8 月 31 日地方债披露发行 3515.97 亿元。其中新增债 2232.89 亿元（新增一般债 353.10 亿元，新增专项债 1879.79 亿元），再融资债 1283.08 亿元（再融资一般债 656.93 亿 元，再融资专项债 626.15 亿元）。 8 月 18 日-8 月 24 日地方债共发行 3691.50 亿元。其中新增债 2488.07 亿元（新增一般债 95.39 亿元，新增专项债 2392.68 亿元），再融资债 1203.43 亿元（再融资一般债 468.73 亿元，再 融资专项债 734.70 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 发行复盘 8 月 18 日-8 月 24 日地方债共发行 3691.50 亿元。其中新增债 ...

证券分析师 2025 年 08 月 24 日 新增地方债发行提速，30Y 减国债 利差大幅走阔 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250822 相关研究 《发行继续降速，10Y 地方债减国债 利差走阔 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250815》 2025/08/17 《发行开始降速，近期流动性下降 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250808》 2025/08/10 《发行继续提速，减国债利差走阔— —地方债周度跟踪 20250801》 2025/08/04 《新增地方债发行提速，挖利差行情 或接近尾声——地方债周度跟踪 20250725》 2025/07/27 《新增地方债发行开始提速——地 方债周度跟踪 20250718》 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 (8621)23297818× yangxf@swsresearch.com ⚫ 风险提示：部分数据统计可能不完全，数据统计存在误差。 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 研 究 债 券 周 评 证 券 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 固收周度点评 证券研究报告 债市或延续区间波动 1、债市复盘：股市继续压制、资金收敛，赎回压力增加 本周，债市跟随股市演绎，未能走出独立行情，呈现近乎"股市涨势延续、 债市跌势不止"的单边趋势：（1）股债"跷跷板"效应明显，债市对基本 面"脱敏"。（2）市场情绪敏感，出现债基的集中赎回。上半周赎回压力加 大，基金卖盘明显增加。（3）利率中枢上移，单日波动加大。10 年国债活 跃券收益率 8/18 便突破 1.75%关键点位，而后运行于 1.75%-1.79%的区间。 资金面超预期收敛后边际缓和，资金利率波动加大，大行净融出规模快速 回落，整体上呈现两点特征：（1）预期与现实的背离，原因在于传统的税 期和非传统的股债市场联动改变资金流向两点因素形成的共振冲击。（2） 流动性投放力度大、节奏前置以稳定预期，阻断赎回压力的蔓延。 2、利率筑顶了吗？ 过去的一周，在赎回担忧发酵的同时，央行呵护显效、配置盘持续买入、 交易盘抛售到小幅净买入，或逐步对利率向上的空间形成一定约束，我们 预计 1.80%或成为 10年期国债利率的阶段性顶部，当前正处筑顶的过程中。 央行的适时呵护对债市的调整形成一 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - 8 - 10 months are in a headwind period for the bond market, with current sentiment weaker than in March. Short - term advice is to observe more and trade less, and take profit and adjust positions when there is a yield decline window. Mid - term is an adjustment rather than a reversal, so pay attention to opportunities arising from declines [7][10][107]. - Currently, the safety cushion of bank wealth management still exists. In the short term, redemptions may be a small - scale redemption wave at the fund level. If the yield rises to 1.9%, pay attention to the redemption pressure of wealth management [7][10][107]. - The 30 - 10y spread has reached a new high since 2024. Considering the positive effects of the insurance predetermined interest rate cut and "rush to stop sales", gradually allocate during adjustments when the 10y Treasury bond approaches 1.8% and the 30 - 10y spread is around 30bp [7][10][107]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 7 - month Central Bank Balance Sheet and Custody Volume Interpretation 3.1.1 July 2025 Central Bank Balance Sheet Changes - The central bank's balance sheet scale increased from 45.8 trillion yuan to 45.9 trillion yuan, up 16.7 billion yuan. The main increase on the asset side was "claims on other depository corporations", and on the liability side, it was "government deposits", while the main decrease was "deposits of other depository corporations" [15]. - On the asset side, the "claims on other depository corporations" were close to the open - market投放 scale, showing positive liquidity support. The PSL balance has been rapidly decreasing since the beginning of the year, and attention should be paid to the restart of policy - related financial tools. The "claims on the central government" continued to shrink due to the maturity of short - term Treasury bonds [17][18][20]. - On the liability side, due to the large tax - payment month and increased supply, government deposit increments reached a seasonal high. Bank system funds flowed to fiscal deposits, causing the "deposits of other depository corporations" to decline seasonally [23][28]. 3.1.2 Impact of July 2025 Central Bank Operations on Custody Volume - In July, the central bank conducted 1.4 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 20 billion yuan. Treasury bond trading remained suspended [32]. - The scale of innovative tools was consistent with the change in the custody volume account. The main incremental varieties were local government bonds and policy - bank bonds, and the main reduction item was Treasury bonds [33]. 3.2 Leverage Ratio: After the Quarter - end, the Funding Situation Eased, and Institutional Leverage Declined Seasonally - In July, after the quarter - end, the funding situation eased, and the average monthly leverage ratio declined seasonally to 107.6%. The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased to 7.6 trillion yuan, and the average bond - market leverage ratio decreased from 107.8% to 107.6% [38]. 3.3 By Institution: Allocation - Oriented Investors Increased Positions on Highs, Redemption Drove Funds to Sell Bonds, and Wealth Management Had a Big Bond - Allocation Month 3.3.1 Banks: Large Banks Set a New Monthly Bond - Allocation High, and Rural Commercial Banks Bought 7 - 10y Bonds on Highs - As of July 2025, commercial banks mainly held local government bonds, Treasury bonds, and policy - bank bonds. In July, they mainly increased positions in interest - rate bonds and reduced positions in certificates of deposit [44][46]. - Large banks' bond - investment scale reached a new high in July. In the primary market, government - bond supply advanced seasonally, and in the secondary market, regulatory pressure eased, and they mainly bought short - term Treasury bonds and certificates of deposit [50]. - Rural commercial banks bought 7 - 10y interest - rate bonds on highs in July. Since mid - August, their bond - buying scale increased again, but their willingness to allocate below 1.75% weakened [54][56]. 3.3.2 Insurance: Bond - Allocation Sentiment Was Good Since July, and Attention Should Be Paid to Structural Opportunities from the Predetermined Interest Rate Cut - As of July 2025, insurance companies mainly held local government bonds, credit bonds, and Treasury bonds. They increased positions in local government bonds and certificates of deposit in July [59][60]. - The predetermined interest rate of insurance products will be officially lowered in September. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the 30 - 10y spread, and gradually allocate during adjustments [67]. 3.3.3 General Funds: Redemption Pressure Drove Funds to Sell Bonds, and Wealth Management Had a Seasonal Bond - Allocation Month - As of July 2025, general funds mainly held credit bonds, certificates of deposit, and policy - bank bonds. In July, they increased positions in credit bonds and reduced positions in interest - rate bonds [69][74]. - Funds faced increased redemption pressure in July and mainly sold 7 - 10y Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and certificates of deposit. After August 18, the redemption wave restarted, and historically, the 10y Treasury bond usually peaked within 5 trading days after the start of redemptions [79]. - Bank wealth management had a bond - allocation month driven by liabilities, but some "front - running" behaviors overdrew the seasonal bond - allocation demand [81]. 3.3.4 Foreign Investors: The Comprehensive Yield of Investing in Certificates of Deposit Decreased, and the Net Outflow Speed Accelerated - As of July 2025, foreign institutions mainly held Treasury bonds, certificates of deposit, and policy - bank bonds. In July, they mainly reduced positions in certificates of deposit, Treasury bonds, and policy - bank bonds [85][92]. 3.4 By Bond Type: The Main Support for the Increment of Bond - Market Custody Volume Was Government Bonds, and the Main Reduction Item Was Certificates of Deposit - In July, the increment of the bond - market custody volume increased, with government bonds as the main support and certificates of deposit as the main reduction item. The net financing scale of interest - rate bonds decreased from 1.7067 trillion yuan to 1.5334 trillion yuan [94][99]. - For Treasury bonds, the issuance scale decreased, and the net financing scale declined. For local government bonds, the issuance scale increased, and the net financing scale increased. For policy - bank bonds, the supply rhythm was relatively stable, and the net financing scale changed little [99][100]. - For certificates of deposit, after the quarter - end, the funding situation was loose, and bank liability pressure was limited, resulting in negative net financing [104].