Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquidity environment remains stable, with short-term rates continuing to decline, benefiting from a stable liquidity environment [5][8] - For April, the report highlights that the initial liquidity is expected to ease, with a focus on the government bond issuance plan, particularly the long-term supply schedule [5][8] - The report notes that the total issuance of local government bonds is expected to reach 31,988 billion yuan by April 5, 2026, with 16,618 billion yuan in long-term bonds, accounting for 52% of the total [12][39] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the local government bond issuance plan for the second quarter will be significant, with a total planned issuance of 21,100 billion yuan [13][40] - It is mentioned that the issuance of replacement bonds is progressing slower than in the same period of 2025, which may lead to a higher actual issuance scale in the second quarter [13][40] - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in the long-term local government bonds, particularly focusing on the yield spread between 30-year and 20-year bonds [41][42] Group 3 - The report tracks the interbank certificate of deposit (CD) market, noting that the issuance increased to 7,705 billion yuan from March 23 to March 27, 2026, with a net financing of 723 billion yuan [53][54] - The report highlights that the overall issuance success rate for CDs remains high at 93%, with the highest success rate for 9-month CDs at 97% [53][54] - The report indicates that the secondary market for CDs has maintained low yields, with rates for various maturities showing slight declines [74]

Group 1 - In Q1 2026, bond yields exhibited an "N" shaped trend, with significant upward movement in 30Y yields, influenced by pre- and post-Spring Festival market dynamics and rising inflation expectations [10][11]. - The bond market experienced a "sharp drop followed by slow recovery" before the Spring Festival, with a notable "see-saw effect" between equity and bond markets [10]. - The issuance of special bonds accelerated in Q1, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 200 billion yuan, indicating a proactive approach to financing [37][41]. Group 2 - The economic performance at the beginning of 2026 was strong, with a notable recovery in the manufacturing sector as indicated by the March PMI returning to the expansion zone [48][63]. - In January and February, the production sector showed significant strength, with fixed asset investment growth turning positive at 1.8%, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing investments [59][62]. - The EPMI index saw a substantial increase in March, reflecting robust production recovery and strong demand, with production volume and procurement significantly improving [63][67]. Group 3 - The bond market is expected to remain in a volatile and slightly bearish state in Q2, with a continuation of the steepening curve pattern, suggesting potential trading opportunities in the long end [75].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In Q1 2026, government bond issuance continued the front - loading trend, with total issuance expanding year - on - year but net financing declining due to increased repayment. In Q2, fiscal policy will remain proactive, and government bond supply will be strong with an optimized rhythm. The net financing scale of government bonds in Q2 is expected to be around 4 trillion yuan, and attention should be paid to the impact of special treasury bond issuance on the market and the long - term bond reception capacity [2][3][34]. Summary by Directory 1. Q1 Review: Total Government Bond Volume Increased Year - on - Year, and Net Financing Declined Relatively 1.1 Scale and Rhythm: Longer Maturity of Treasury Bond Issuance, Slower Year - on - Year Growth of Local Refinancing Bonds - In Q1 2026, government bond issuance continued the front - loading feature. The total issuance increased by 5490.72 billion yuan year - on - year, but net financing decreased by 5637.03 billion yuan due to higher repayment. Treasury bond issuance was front - loaded, with a net financing progress of 21.55% of the annual expected scale, similar to the same period in 2025. Local bond issuance was also front - loaded, with a net financing progress of 40.32%, the fastest in the past five years. New special local bonds had a faster issuance progress, and local ordinary refinancing bonds were issued faster while special refinancing bonds were slower [9][10][12]. 1.2 Term Structure and Issuance Sentiment: Expansion of Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds, Increase in 10Y and 30Y Local Bonds - Treasury bond issuance expansion was concentrated in the 7 - 10Y medium - and long - term, with the overall duration lengthened. The issuance sentiment was stable, and the market's reception capacity was maintained. Local bond term structure was more concentrated in 10Y and 30Y, and although the weighted duration decreased, the supply pressure at key long - term points increased. The long - term concentrated issuance of local bonds affected market participation, but the pricing stability was strong [18][20][22]. 2. Q2 Outlook: Fiscal Policy Remains Front - Loaded, and Supply in Q2 is Strong 2.1 Supply Side: Front - Loaded Treasury Bond Issuance, Smooth Local Bond Issuance - In Q2, fiscal policy will remain proactive, and government bond supply will be strong with an optimized rhythm. Treasury bond issuance is expected to increase, with a total issuance of about 45088.60 billion yuan and a net financing of 20983.30 billion yuan, reaching about 50% of the annual net financing progress by the end of Q2. Local bond issuance will be smooth, with a peak in May. The total issuance is expected to be about 29370.10 billion yuan, and the net financing is about 19021.61 billion yuan [25][27][30]. 2.2 Sentiment Side: Pay Attention to the Potential Impact of Special Treasury Bond Issuance on the Market - The special treasury bond issuance arrangement is not fully clear. Historically, the announcement of the issuance plan has easily led to short - term gaming, and the supply shock is mainly concentrated in the T + 1 to T + 5 window, with a stronger impact on the 30Y interest rate than the 10Y [35][37]. 2.3 Demand Side: Pay Attention to the Reception Capacity of Allocation - Oriented Investors for Ultra - Long - Term Treasury Bonds - In Q1 2026, insurance funds' willingness to allocate long - term treasury bonds was significantly weaker than in the same period last year, while the demand for long - term and ultra - long - term local bonds was more stable. In Q2, more attention should be paid to the market's reception capacity for ultra - long - term treasury bonds [38][40][41].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of nominal growth, with expectations for a moderate increase in nominal GDP growth to around 5.3% in Q2, influenced by high oil prices and a stable inflation index [4][34][35] - Export performance is projected to show some short-term slowdown, but medium-term resilience is expected due to China's industrial chain advantages, which may help offset the impact of high oil prices on external demand [4][17][21] - The real estate market is characterized by a "small spring" effect, where volume increases are driven by price reductions, but the foundation for stabilization remains uncertain, particularly in April [4][22][27] Group 2 - Monetary conditions indicate limited probability for broad monetary easing, with banks potentially shifting their liability structures, leading to a stable funding environment [4][10][11] - The supply-demand dynamics in the bond market are improving, with manageable supply pressures and increased non-bank institutional participation, which is expected to enhance the overall market conditions [4][13][18] - The report suggests that Q2 typically presents a favorable environment for asset management products, indicating a good window for achieving higher portfolio returns [4][5][22] Group 3 - The bond market strategy focuses on maintaining a safety cushion in a "money-rich" environment, emphasizing small-scale trading opportunities and the exploration of excess yield spreads [4][6][7] - The report anticipates that the 10-year government bond yield will fluctuate between 1.75% and 1.85%, while the 30-year bond yield may see core fluctuations around 40-50 basis points [4][7][11] - Attention is drawn to the potential for yield compression and structural opportunities in the bond market, particularly with the expected increase in asset management product sizes in April [4][6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market anticipates regulatory adjustments to the inter - bank certificate of deposit (CD) quota management method, potentially integrating it with other financial bond quotas. If implemented, the bank's liability - side financing structure may adjust, with a long - term trend of reduced CD supply and a short - term possibility of some banks increasing CD issuance [2]. - The bond market's trading theme may shift back to marginal changes in the domestic liquidity environment. With the central bank's continuous support for liquidity and the fading of cross - quarter factors, the bond market may enter a phased "buying window." The next potential disruptions are the April tax period and the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [2][90]. - In terms of strategy, it is recommended to moderately increase the aggressiveness of the portfolio, maintain a portfolio duration of 3 - 5 years, and appropriately increase trading positions in long - term and ultra - long - term bonds. Specific bond varieties such as 250003 and 260003 are recommended, and trading opportunities for 250016, 250022, and 260005 can be noted [2][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - On March 25, 2026, the central bank conducted 500 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with a net injection of 5 billion yuan. As of March 2026, MLF has achieved net injections for 13 consecutive months [5]. - On March 27, 2026, the central bank held a financial stability work meeting, emphasizing the need to prevent and resolve systemic financial risks, dispose of key - area financial risks, and strengthen the financial stability guarantee system [9]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Rate Trends - From March 23 to March 27, 2026, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, injecting a total of 474.2 billion yuan, with 242.3 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 231.9 billion yuan. From March 30 to April 3, 2026, it is expected that 474.2 billion yuan of base currency will be matured and withdrawn [10][11]. - As the cross - quarter period approached last week, the funding situation tightened marginally, with R007 rising above 1.5%. As of March 27, 2026, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.387%, 1.507%, 1.318%, and 1.440% respectively, with changes of - 0.90BP, 3.00BP, - 0.28BP, and 1.89BP compared to the close on March 23 [16]. 3.2.2 CD Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, last week's inter - bank CD issuance volume was 772.02 billion yuan, with a net financing volume of 73.82 billion yuan. The CD issuance volume of city commercial banks was the largest, with a net financing volume of 47.6 billion yuan. The issuance rates of inter - bank CDs of various banks decreased compared to the previous week [21][23][25]. - In the secondary market, affected by the approaching quarter - end, the overall yield of inter - bank CDs increased. The yield of AAA - rated 1 - month inter - bank CDs decreased by 3.00BP to 1.43%, while the yields of 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year inter - bank CDs increased [27]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - Last week, 97 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 664.559 billion yuan, a maturity amount of 405.651 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 258.907 billion yuan. In March 2026, the issuance pace of treasury bonds was slightly behind that of local bonds, but the issuance scales of both were higher than the average levels of the same period from 2022 - 2025 [30]. - As of March 27, 2026, the cumulative net financing scale of special refinancing bonds in 2026 reached 950 billion yuan, mainly in long - term and ultra - long - term tenors. Regions with relatively large issuance scales include Jiangsu, Henan, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and Zhejiang [40]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - Last week, in a weak equity market, long - term bonds performed better overall, and the 10 - 1 - year treasury bond term spread narrowed. The turnover rate of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond increased, while that of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond (250220) decreased [30][44][47]. - The 10 - 1 - year treasury bond term spread reached 56.54BP, and the 30 - 1 - year treasury bond term spread widened to 109.79BP. The spreads between long - term local bonds and long - term treasury bonds and between ultra - long - term local bonds and ultra - long - term treasury bonds widened overall last week [57][59]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the overall scale of leveraged trading decreased as the quarter - end approached, with an average of about 794 billion yuan. In the cash bond market, large banks became net sellers, small and medium - sized banks adjusted their bond - holding structures, insurance companies' overall buying strength declined marginally, securities firms' selling scale decreased, and funds continued to prefer policy - based financial bonds [63][74]. - In February 2026, the leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 118.41%, a decrease of about 0.89 percentage points compared to January 2026. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities firms, and other institutions in the inter - bank market were about 110.72%, 189.40%, and 130.57% respectively [63]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures decreased by 0.58% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures remained flat, the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased by 1.22% week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.91% week - on - week, and the Nanhua Glass Index decreased by 1.67% week - on - week [88]. - The CCFI index increased by 1.64% week - on - week, and the BDI index decreased by 1.22% week - on - week. The wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.56% week - on - week, and the wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 1.85% week - on - week. The settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 3.73% and 3.91% respectively week - on - week. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.91 [88][89]. 3.6 Market Outlook - Looking ahead, the inflation trading driven by geopolitical conflicts is gradually cooling down, and the bond market's trading theme may return to marginal changes in the domestic liquidity environment. With the central bank's continuous support for liquidity and the fading of cross - quarter factors, the bond market may enter a phased "buying window." Attention should be paid to the April tax period and the issuance pace of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [2][90]. - In terms of strategy, it is recommended to moderately increase the aggressiveness of the portfolio, maintain a portfolio duration of 3 - 5 years, and appropriately increase trading positions in long - term and ultra - long - term bonds. Specific bond varieties such as 250003 and 260003 are recommended, and trading opportunities for 250016, 250022, and 260005 can be noted [2][90].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market dynamics for the second quarter of 2026, focusing on interest rate bonds, credit bonds, and convertible bonds. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Bonds Stability**: The interest rate bond market is expected to show a "stable yet organic" trend, with limited upside for ultra-long bonds compared to long-term bonds. [2] 2. **Investor Behavior Changes**: There has been a notable shift in investor behavior, with banks and insurance companies maintaining stable liabilities, leading to strong support for short-term bonds. [2][3] 3. **Growth of "Fixed Income +" Funds**: The rapid growth of "Fixed Income +" funds since the second half of 2025 has become a significant force in the market, driving demand for high-rated, short-duration credit bonds. [2][3] 4. **Credit Bond Opportunities**: The credit bond market still presents opportunities, particularly in extending duration and exploring unique points on the yield curve. [2] 5. **Convertible Bonds Market Decline**: The convertible bond market has experienced a significant pullback due to external uncertainties, strong redemption risks, and negative feedback effects from fund redemptions. [10] 6. **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The primary contradiction in the bond market is not a lack of funds but the difficulty in absorbing excessive issuance of long-duration local government bonds. [5] 7. **Market Predictions for April**: The bond market is expected to remain stable, with the potential for the 30-year bond yields to follow the 10-year bond yields downward if certain thresholds are met. [6] 8. **Investment Strategies for April**: Strategies include exploring yield spreads in credit bonds, particularly in perpetual bonds and short-duration credit bonds, as well as focusing on the trading opportunities in perpetual bonds. [7] 9. **Seasonal Growth in Wealth Management**: A seasonal increase in wealth management products is anticipated, which will provide additional capital for the credit bond market. [8] 10. **Convertible Bond Investment Strategy**: In a volatile market, a balanced investment strategy focusing on low-priced and low-premium convertible bonds is recommended. [11] Additional Important Content - **Market Sentiment and Supply Pressure**: The sentiment in the bond market is crucial, as supply pressure from perpetual bonds is manageable if market sentiment remains positive. [8] - **Impact of Macroeconomic Factors**: Upcoming macroeconomic data releases, including PMI, exports, and inflation, are expected to influence market dynamics significantly. [6] - **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term economic recovery and price stabilization factors are expected to have limited short-term impacts on the market. [6] - **Risk Management**: Institutions are becoming more cautious in managing interest rate risks, contrasting with previous years' more aggressive risk appetites. [5] This summary encapsulates the essential insights and dynamics discussed in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the bond market.

Group 1 - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 146.2 billion yuan for 7 days at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 125.7 billion yuan after accounting for 20.5 billion yuan maturing that day [1][3] - The interbank market remains loose, with the weighted average rate of DR001 slightly declining to around 1.31%, indicating ample liquidity [3] - The yield on major interbank bonds has decreased across the board, with the latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit at approximately 1.531% [8][10] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need to enhance the systemic financial risk prevention and resolution framework, focusing on technology empowerment and financial risk monitoring [14] - The Ministry of Commerce announced investigations into trade barriers imposed by the U.S. regarding global supply chains and green product trade, aiming to protect China's legitimate rights [14] - Recent bond market events include Sunshine City having overdue debt principal totaling 65.336 billion yuan, while other companies like Jinju Jidong and Hejing Group reported changes in their financial statuses [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Interest - rate bonds: The rating is based on the net price increase or decrease of interest - rate bonds within 3 months after the report date. There are three ratings including "Overweight" (interest rate risk decreases and net price has room to rise), "Neutral" (interest rate risk is stable and net price has slight fluctuations), and "Underweight" (interest rate risk increases and net price has room to fall) [69][73] - Credit bonds: The rating is based on the net price increase or decrease of credit bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings are "Overweight" (credit risk decreases and net price has room to rise), "Neutral" (credit risk is stable and net price has slight fluctuations), and "Underweight" (credit risk increases and net price has room to fall) [69] - Convertible bonds: The rating is based on the increase or decrease of the convertible bond price relative to the CSI Convertible Bond Index within 3 months after the report date. Ratings are "Overweight" (convertible bond performance is stronger than the CSI Convertible Bond Index), "Neutral" (convertible bond performance is the same as the CSI Convertible Bond Index), and "Underweight" (convertible bond performance is weaker than the CSI Convertible Bond Index) [70] Core Viewpoints - The incremental renewal of MLF in March released two positive meanings. First, the reduction in 3M - and 6M - term repurchase agreements was likely due to commercial bank demand. Second, after considering the negative externalities of high oil prices, the central bank still chose a relatively loose monetary policy [1][3][4] - The report is still optimistic about the continued looseness of inter - bank liquidity and the future trends of cash assets such as repurchase agreements, inter - bank certificates of deposit, short - term interest rates, short - term credit, and ABS [5] 3. March MLF Incremental Renewal's Two Positive Meanings - The central bank has constructed short - term, medium - term, and long - term quantitative monetary policy toolkits. Long - term tools include reserve requirement ratio cuts and treasury bond trading, medium - term tools include MLF, repurchase agreements, and various structural tools, and short - term tools include 7 - day open - market repurchase agreements and overnight repurchase agreements [2][12] - The reduction in 3M - and 6M - term repurchase agreements in March was likely due to commercial bank demand. In March, the 3M - term repurchase agreement decreased by 200 billion yuan, the 6M - term by 100 billion yuan, and in February, the central bank's net purchase of treasury bonds decreased by 50 billion yuan. However, the 5 - billion - yuan net MLF injection in March showed that the central bank's supportive attitude remained unchanged, as commercial banks had a higher acceptance of 1 - year MLF funds and less demand for 3M - and 6M - term repurchase agreements [3][12] - After considering the negative externalities of high oil prices, the central bank still chose a relatively loose monetary policy. High oil prices boosted domestic PPI and CPI, but the domestic price increase might be due to imported inflation. The incremental renewal of MLF released this policy signal. Also, on March 23, the NDRC adjusted domestic refined oil prices, indicating that macro - policies considered the negative externalities of high oil prices [4][13] 2. Narrow - sense Liquidity 2.1 Central Bank Operations - Short - term liquidity: Near the end of the quarter, the central bank increased its repurchase agreement injections. From March 23 to 27, the net injection of repurchase agreements was 231.9 billion yuan [17] - Medium - and long - term liquidity: The central bank's net MLF injection was 5 billion yuan [17] 2.2 Institutional Funding Supply and Demand - Funding supply (lenders): Near the end of the quarter, the net lending of large - scale banks decreased significantly [21] - Funding demand (borrowers): The absolute financing balance was high, while the relative leverage ratio was low [28] 2.3 Repurchase Market Transaction - Funding volume and price: The volume was abundant and the price was stable [42] - Funding sentiment index: The market was relatively relaxed [45] 2.4 Interest Rate Swaps - The cost of interest rate swaps fluctuated slightly, and the spread between CDs and IRS remained low [50] 3. Government Bonds 3.1 Next Week's Net Government Bond Payment: A Significant Decrease - In the past week, the total net government bond payment was 60.64 billion yuan, and in the next week, it is expected to be 1.5 billion yuan [51] 3.2 Government Bond Maturity Structure - As of March 27, the proportion of ultra - long - term bonds (over 10 years) in government bond issuance has changed over time. The issuance of treasury bonds and local government bonds also has different maturity structures [53][56][57] 4. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit 4.1 Absolute Yield - The SHIBOR yield curve and the AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield curve changed slightly in the past week [61] 4.2 Issuance and Outstanding Balance - As of March 27, the total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 772 billion yuan, with different proportions for different maturities. The total outstanding balance was 1,818.856 billion yuan, also with different maturity distributions [64][65] 4.3 Relative Valuation - The spreads of inter - bank certificates of deposit, such as the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield and R007, DR007, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield, changed slightly, and their quantiles since 2020 are different [67]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank maintained liquidity during the quarter - end, with increased net open - market injections. Interest rates in the bond market were generally in a warm - fluctuating pattern, and the 30 - year treasury bond recovered significantly. The CD yield fluctuated, and the net financing of CDs turned positive. Government bond supply declined, and the inter - bank leverage ratio decreased slightly [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank injected 4742 billion yuan through reverse repurchase and 5000 billion yuan through 1 - year MLF this week. Reverse repurchase maturities were 2423 billion yuan, and MLF maturities were 4500 billion yuan, resulting in a net reverse - repurchase injection of 2319 billion yuan and an excess MLF roll - over of 500 billion yuan [1]. - **Funding Prices**: R001 closed at 1.39% (previous value 1.40%), DR001 remained flat at 1.32% (previous value 1.32%), R007 closed at 1.51% (previous value 1.48%), and DR007 closed at 1.44% (previous value 1.42%). The spread between DR007 and the 7 - day OMO was 3.98bp. The 6M national - share bank draft transfer discount rate was 1.06% [1]. - **Bond Yields**: The 1 - year treasury bond yield dropped 0.5bp to 1.25%, the 10 - year treasury bond yield dropped 1.27bp to 1.82%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield dropped 3.84bp to 2.35% [1]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (CDs) - **Yield Changes**: The 3M CD yield dropped 1.0bp to 1.46%, the 6M CD yield rose 0.75bp to 1.48%, and the 1Y CD yield rose 1.0bp to 1.53%. The spread between the 1 - year CD and R007 narrowed 2.00bp to 1.81bp [2]. - **Net Financing**: The net financing of CDs this week was 738 billion yuan, compared with - 4031 billion yuan previously. In terms of the issuance structure, the weighted - average issuance term this week was 7.9M (previous value 8.0M), with 877.0 billion yuan of 3M CDs issued, 1324.3 billion yuan of 6M CDs issued, and 2286.5 billion yuan of 1Y CDs issued [2]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Government Bond Supply**: This week, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 948 billion yuan, and the net issuance of local bonds was 1300 billion yuan, with a total net issuance of government bonds of 2249 billion yuan (previous value 7402 billion yuan), and a total net payment of 5930 billion yuan (previous value 6652 billion yuan). Next week, the expected net issuance of local bonds is 406 billion yuan, and the net payment of local bonds is 686 billion yuan [2]. - **Inter - bank Leverage Ratio**: The average daily volume of pledged repurchase transactions this week was 7.94 trillion yuan (previous value 8.37 trillion yuan), and the average daily inter - bank market leverage ratio was 107.12% (previous value 107.26%) [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The funds remained loose this week despite some disturbances such as government bond supply and OMO net - withdrawals in the first half of the week. The MLF over - renewal and OMO net - injection on Wednesday limited the impact of the quarter - end factor. Short - term interest rates remained low, and the yields of medium - and short - term policy financial bonds continued to decline [3][15]. - The cross - quarter progress of funds slowed down further this week, with the cross - quarter progress of the whole market at 35.2%, 9.3 percentage points lower than the average from 2020 - 2025. However, the disturbance to funds at the quarter - end was limited, and the actual financing cost of non - banks was at a relatively low level compared with previous quarter - ends [4][29]. - Although the scale of money market funds rebounded rapidly in February, their demand for certificates of deposit was weaker than the seasonality, and the scale of reverse repurchase lending was also relatively limited. The probability of a significant rebound in short - term interest rates after the quarter - end was relatively low [39]. - The net payment of government bonds will decrease next week. With the central bank's support, institutions are likely to achieve a smooth cross - quarter. The exogenous disturbances to funds in early April after the quarter - end are also relatively limited, and the loose pattern is expected to continue in the short term [43][67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Money Market 3.1.1 This Week's Fund Review - The central bank's OMO had a net injection of 231.9 billion yuan this week. On Wednesday, the central bank conducted a 500 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with an over - renewal of 50 billion yuan compared with the maturity on that day. Despite the net withdrawal in the first half of the week and the large supply pressure of government bonds on Monday, the funds remained loose. DR001 remained at 1.32% for 11 consecutive trading days [3][15]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase fluctuated and declined, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 0.44 trillion yuan to 7.94 trillion yuan compared with last week. The overall scale of pledged repurchase first decreased and then increased, rising above 12 trillion yuan again on Friday. The net lending of large - scale banks first decreased and then increased, and was lower than last week as a whole; the net lending of small - scale banks continued to rise after Tuesday; the overall net lending of banks also first decreased and then increased, and was higher than last week [4][24]. - The non - bank rigid lending increased slightly continuously, mainly due to the large increase in the lending of money market funds. The non - bank rigid borrowing scale began to increase continuously on Tuesday, mainly due to the large increase in other products and insurance. The seasonally adjusted fund gap index fluctuated at a low level in the first half of the week and continued to rise after Wednesday, rising to - 314.6 billion yuan on Friday, higher than - 866.3 billion yuan last Friday; while the pre - seasonally adjusted index dropped to - 954.7 billion yuan, mainly affected by the large increase in the net lending of small - scale banks excluded from the seasonal adjustment [4][24]. - The cross - quarter progress of funds slowed down further. As of Friday, the cross - quarter progress of inter - bank funds was 35.4%, at the lowest level in the same period of previous years, and the gap with previous years continued to widen; the cross - quarter progress of the exchange slowed down again after accelerating on Tuesday, and the cross - quarter progress on Friday was 34.6%, also dropping to the lowest level in the same period of previous years. The cross - month progress of the whole market was 35.2%, 9.3 percentage points lower than the average from 2020 - 2025 [29]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Fund Outlook - The net payment of government bonds this week was 606.4 billion yuan. There is no treasury bond issuance plan next week. The issuance scale of local bonds in 5 regions such as Henan, Chongqing, and Sichuan is 118.4 billion yuan, including 2.1 billion yuan of new general bonds, 29.7 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 86.6 billion yuan of refinancing bonds, among which the issuance of replacement bonds is 11.7 billion yuan. Considering the time lag between issuance and payment, the payment scale of government bonds next week will drop to 146.4 billion yuan, the maturity scale will drop to 131.4 billion yuan, and the net payment scale will drop to 15 billion yuan [40][43]. - The actual issuance scale of treasury bonds in March was 1.38 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 300 billion yuan, in line with expectations. The issuance scale of local bonds in March was 1.08 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 670 billion yuan, lower than the expected 770 billion yuan. The overall actual issuance scale of government bonds in March was 2.47 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 960 billion yuan, lower than the expected 1.07 trillion yuan. The cumulative net financing of government bonds in the first quarter was 3.56 trillion yuan, lower than 4.1 trillion yuan in the same period of 2025 [56]. - Seven regions newly announced the Q2 local bond issuance plan this week. Currently, 22 regions have announced the Q2 plan, with a total scale of 1.9904 trillion yuan, still lower than the actual issuance of 2.0865 trillion yuan in Q1. It is estimated that the issuance scale of local bonds in April may be 1.03 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 570 billion yuan, revised down by 130 billion yuan compared with last week's forecast. It is estimated that the issuance scale of local bonds in May and June will be 1.02 trillion yuan respectively, with net financings of 750 billion yuan and 490 billion yuan respectively. It is estimated that the issuance scale of government bonds in April, May, and June 2026 will be 2.36 trillion yuan, 2.39 trillion yuan, and 2.62 trillion yuan respectively, with net financings of 1.07 trillion yuan, 1.42 trillion yuan, and 1.06 trillion yuan respectively. The cumulative net financing scale of government bonds in the second quarter is expected to be about 3.55 trillion yuan, still lower than 3.7 trillion yuan in the same period of 2025 [60][62]. - The maturity scale of 7 - day reverse repurchases next week will rise to 474.2 billion yuan, and the net payment of government bonds will drop from 606.4 billion yuan this week to 15 billion yuan, with net repayments in the first half of the week. The new stock of Beijie Stock Exchange, Saiying Electronics, will be issued online on March 30, with a fundraising scale of about 270 million yuan, which may have a relatively lower impact on the exchange fund prices in the first half of the week. Overall, the maturity volume of reverse repurchases next week is lower than that in previous cross - quarter periods. With the central bank's support, institutions are likely to achieve a smooth cross - quarter. The exogenous disturbances to funds in early April after the quarter - end are also relatively limited, and the loose pattern is expected to continue in the short term [67]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1 - year Shibor rate decreased by 1.45 BP to 1.5405% compared with March 20. The 1 - year AAA - grade inter - bank certificate of deposit secondary rate increased by 1 BP to 1.525% compared with March 20 [68]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased while the maturity scale decreased this week, and the certificates of deposit turned to net financing of 7.27 billion yuan, an increase of 48.73 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were - 55.4 billion yuan, 131.7 billion yuan, 27.6 billion yuan, and - 11 billion yuan respectively. The 9 - month - term certificates of deposit had the largest issuance volume this week, accounting for 32%, and the issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit decreased by 5 percentage points to 30% compared with last week. The maturity scale of certificates of deposit next week is about 15.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 54.42 billion yuan compared with this week [74]. - The issuance success rates of joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks for certificates of deposit decreased month - on - month, while that of state - owned banks increased. Except for the relatively low issuance success rate of rural commercial banks, the others were near the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed [75]. - The relative supply - demand strength index of certificates of deposit first decreased and then increased this week, rising by 0.2 percentage points to 29.3% for the whole week. The willingness of money market funds to increase holdings in the primary market increased slightly, the willingness of wealth management products and funds to increase holdings was stable, and the willingness of other products to increase holdings in the secondary market decreased. In terms of different terms, the supply - demand indexes of 1 - month and 1 - year certificates of deposit increased, while those of 3 - month, 6 - month, and 9 - month certificates of deposit decreased, with relatively large declines in 6 - month and 9 - month certificates of deposit [85]. 3.3 Bill Market The bill interest rate declined overall this week. As of March 27, the 3 - month and 6 - month bill interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks decreased by 13 BP and 11 BP respectively compared with March 20, to 1.30% and 1.06% [92]. 3.4 Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - Interest - rate bonds fluctuated downward this week, and the credit spreads of medium - and long - term bonds compressed. Large - scale banks tended to reduce their bond holdings overall, and the scale of their increased holdings of treasury bonds also decreased. They tended to reduce their holdings of treasury bonds within 1 year and 5 - year treasury bonds, the willingness to increase holdings of 7 - year treasury bonds decreased, but they turned to be inclined to increase holdings of treasury bonds over 10 years. At the same time, they tended to reduce their holdings of policy financial bonds within 1 year, the willingness to reduce holdings of 1 - 3 - year policy financial bonds increased, but the willingness to reduce holdings of local bonds decreased [95]. - Trading - type institutions tended to increase their bond holdings overall. Among them, the willingness of securities companies to reduce holdings decreased, the willingness of fund companies to increase holdings increased, but the willingness of other institutions and products to increase holdings decreased [95]. - Allocation - type institutions' willingness to increase bond holdings increased overall. Among them, the willingness of small - and medium - sized banks to reduce holdings decreased, the willingness of wealth management products to increase holdings increased, but the willingness of insurance companies to increase holdings decreased [95].