以下文章来源于中国宏观经济论坛 CMF ，作者罗志恒 从三大微观主体角度分析地方债：债务问题事关地方政府能力和积极性，进一步影响企业和居民预期 看待地方债务问题，不能仅从流动性风险和金融风险（到期不能还本付息）的角度去看，更要看到地方政府债务的妥善处理事关经济平稳运 行。 今年上半年，中国经济运行总体平稳，上半年增长5.3%。但是进入三季度后，经济再度承压，这其中有需求不足尤其是消费不振的问 题，也有政策靠前发力从而下半年政策力度相对不足的问题。上半年经济增长确实一定程度上源自政策尤其是财政政策的支撑，比如上半年 的"以旧换新"撬动消费、"两重两新"带动制造业和基建投资保持较高增速，上半年集中发力，下半年力度自然减弱，带动经济承压。 但这些只是表象，更深层次的原因在于经济内生动能不足、微观主体积极性不高。 企业投资和居民消费的意愿减弱时，由政府投资暂时补 位，这是一般意义上的宏观调整。 宏观调控政策不能仅仅满足于弥补需求缺口，这只能是阶段性目标，最终目标是通过扩大需求提升内生动 能和微观主体的积极。 因此，这就意味着宏观调控的方式要优化，尤其要避免所谓"挖坑填坑也能创造需求"的简单思维；需求管理如果不作 用于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the measures taken by the Chinese government to mitigate local debt risks, including the identification of 12 provinces as high-risk areas and the subsequent restrictions on government investment projects. The dynamic adjustment of the high-risk list aims to create new investment opportunities, with some provinces already exiting the high-risk category [1]. Group 1 - Twelve provinces have been identified as high-risk areas for local debt, leading to constraints on government investment projects [1]. - The State Council has implemented a package of debt resolution policies and is dynamically adjusting the list of high-risk regions to support new investment opportunities [1]. - Inner Mongolia has reportedly exited the high-risk debt region list, indicating a positive shift in local debt management [1]. Group 2 - The restrictions on new government investment projects in high-risk areas have created pressure on local economies, leading to a cautious approach from private investors [1]. - Local governments in high-risk areas face strict controls on new investment projects, requiring approval from the National Development and Reform Commission [1]. - The emphasis on strengthening local government debt management is crucial for maintaining economic stability in these regions [1].

Group 1 - The State Council has requested a dynamic adjustment of the list of high-risk debt regions, with Inner Mongolia confirmed to have exited the list and Ningxia stating it meets the conditions for exit [1][7] - A total of 12 provinces are currently on the high-risk debt list, which restricts government investment projects to prevent debt risk from spreading [1][2] - Inner Mongolia's financial report indicates significant progress in debt reduction, allowing it to be the first province to exit the high-risk list [3][6] Group 2 - The 2025 government work report emphasizes the need to resolve local government debt risks while promoting development through a comprehensive debt reduction plan [2] - Several provinces, including Ningxia and Jilin, are accelerating their efforts to exit the high-risk debt list, with Ningxia having already applied for support from national ministries [7] - According to research, exiting the high-risk debt list requires meeting specific standards, such as reducing local government financing platforms and hidden debt ratios [7][8] Group 3 - After exiting the high-risk debt list, local investment financing restrictions may ease, potentially boosting regional economic recovery and development [8] - Despite exiting the high-risk list, some regions will continue to focus on debt reduction to mitigate potential risks, as indicated by Inner Mongolia's financial management report [8]

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, local government bond issuance accelerated, with a total of approximately 5.5 trillion yuan issued, representing a year-on-year increase of about 57% [1][2] - New special bonds issued amounted to approximately 2.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45%, while refinancing bonds reached about 2.9 trillion yuan, up approximately 73% [1][2] - More than half of the funds from local government bonds were used for refinancing old debts, which alleviated current fiscal pressures and allowed local governments to focus more on development and livelihood projects [2][3] Group 2 - The issuance of refinancing bonds was driven by two main factors: the replacement of hidden debts and the reliance on refinancing bonds to repay about 90% of maturing local government bond principal [2][3] - The average issuance term of local government bonds has continued to extend, with an average interest rate of 1.95%, significantly lower than the previous year's level of 2.29%, which helps reduce financing costs [9][10] - The Ministry of Finance has indicated plans to expedite the issuance of long-term special bonds and local government special bonds to support economic stability and growth [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report Benefiting from continuous strong support from the central government, the uniqueness of the Corps system, and its prominent resource endowment and development foundation, Xinjiang has a strong willingness to repay debts and a good foundation for debt repayment. Despite the existing debt pressure on local governments and platform enterprises, the overall regional debt risk is controllable. However, factors such as the high dependence on resource-based industries, the development gap between northern and southern Xinjiang, rigid investment expenditures for regional stability and infrastructure improvement, and the information and resource allocation under the "dual-track system" of the autonomous region and the Corps may pose constraints on debt management [7][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Analysis of Xinjiang's Debt Repayment Will Supported by Central Policy Empowerment and the Resilience of the Corps System - Xinjiang has a unique geopolitical position and a prominent strategic status, with large-scale rigid expenditure needs. Its economic and fiscal strength is limited, and local fiscal self-sufficiency is weak. The central government has been providing support policies and large-scale transfer payments, which strongly support its strong debt repayment will [4][11]. - In 2024, Xinjiang received a total of 418.284 billion yuan in general budget and government fund budget subsidies from the central government. The scale of general budget subsidies from the central government in recent years has been among the top in ethnic minority autonomous regions and the five northwestern provinces [14]. - The special Corps system strengthens Xinjiang's overall debt repayment will. The "Agricultural Sixth Division default event" in 2018 reflected the problem of debt repayment resource mismatch caused by the deep - seated interwoven relationship between the autonomous region and the Corps system, but it also became an opportunity to strengthen debt management [19]. - After the default event, Xinjiang and the Corps strengthened debt risk control, increased the investigation of hidden debts, and established a debt risk accountability system. The central government also supported debt risk resolution through transfer payments and special bond quota allocation [21]. - In terms of historical debt repayment performance, Xinjiang has basically held the bottom line of urban investment debt risk. Except for the 2018 Agricultural Sixth Division bond default, there have been no other bond default events, and there are few credit risk events such as non - standard defaults and bill overdue [24]. 2. Analysis of Xinjiang's Debt Repayment Guarantee Ability under the Linkage of Resource Economy and Central Support - Supported by policies and resource endowments, Xinjiang's economy and finance have maintained a relatively fast growth trend. Since the 14th Five - Year Plan, Xinjiang has shifted its focus to economic development, and the "Ten Industrial Clusters" development plan has been released, with good future economic development prospects [27][30]. - Xinjiang's fiscal revenue is resource - driven. Abundant resources can provide liquidity support for debt risk prevention, and there is still room for industrial structure upgrading. Its low dependence on land finance makes its fiscal revenue less affected by the real estate downturn [34]. - However, the high dependence on resource - based industries and the development gap between northern and southern Xinjiang lead to insufficient economic stability. Rigid investment expenditures for regional stability and infrastructure improvement may hinder debt resolution [37][42]. 3. Analysis of Xinjiang's Local Debt Repayment Pressure under the Background of the Package Debt Resolution Policy - Xinjiang's overall debt scale and debt ratio are at the middle and lower levels in the country. The debt repayment pressure exists but is relatively controllable, and there is still some room for debt - raising in future economic development [6]. - Since the implementation of the package debt resolution policy, Xinjiang has issued a large - scale of special refinancing bonds and special new special bonds to resolve local government debts. The regional financing environment has been effectively improved, the issuance cost of platform bonds has significantly decreased, and the bond term has been extended, effectively alleviating the debt pressure [6][50]. 4. Summary Xinjiang has large - scale rigid expenditure needs, limited economic and fiscal strength, and weak local fiscal self - sufficiency. The government and enterprises have certain debt pressure. However, with the support of the central government and the improvement of debt management, the region has good development prospects. Although there are some factors restricting debt management, the overall regional debt risk is controllable [55].