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热点思考 | 中期选举“诅咒”:特朗普能否翻盘?—“美国中选”系列之一(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "curse" of midterm elections in the U.S., highlighting the unprecedented pressure on Trump due to potential impeachment and political reckoning following midterm losses. It explores the extraordinary measures Trump may take to navigate this situation [4][10]. Group 1: The "Curse" of Midterm Elections - The "curse" of midterm elections indicates that the ruling party often loses control in Congress, with 18 out of 20 midterm elections from 1946 to 2022 resulting in net seat losses for the ruling party, averaging a loss of 25 seats in the House [5][10]. - Key factors contributing to this phenomenon include unfavorable voter demographics for the ruling party, the tendency for support in election years to be above normal, and the correlation between presidential approval ratings and midterm performance [5][15][20]. Group 2: Declining Support for Trump - As of March 12, 2026, Trump's approval rating stands at 41.0%, with a disapproval rate of 55.0%, resulting in a net approval rating of -14.0%. The Democratic Party currently leads in support by 5 percentage points [6][23]. - The primary concern for voters is the cost of living, with 40% identifying it as the top issue, followed by democratic values (24%) and immigration (17%). Within the cost of living, healthcare costs (33%) and housing costs (23%) are the most pressing concerns [6][27][31]. Group 3: Strategies for Trump to Turn the Tide - Trump is expected to adopt unconventional measures to address the unfavorable political landscape, focusing on foreign security issues and reducing domestic living costs. His strategy will likely prioritize core Republican voters while also appealing to moderate voters [7][55]. - Potential unconventional measures to lower oil prices may include restricting U.S. crude oil exports, price controls, and interventions in the futures market to suppress price expectations [7][43].